MLB Daily Notes - May 7th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
My real job is absolutely killing me today, which is to say that it’s a day that 90% of people would be like “wow you have a pretty easy job”.
But here we are, finally getting to the daily notes. I really would have thought that into my third season of writing these every day, it would have gotten old and I wouldn’t like it as much as I did at first, but no - I still love it. Pretty cool.
The pitchers of the day yesterday:
Cole Ragans: 6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 8 K, 2 BB, 20% SwStr%, 50.5% SwStr%
Zack Wheeler: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 11 K, 1 BB, 18.6% SwStr%, 51% Strike%
Yu Darvish: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 5 K, 1 BB, 18.1% SwStr%, 59% Strike%
Andrew Heaney: 6 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 5 K, 0 BB, 15.5% SwStr%, 51.5% Strike%
Jack Flaherty: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 6 K, 1 BB, 14.9% SwStr%, 49.5% Strike%
Not quite as dominant from Flaherty as we had seen prior, but still very good and another start where he did not have trouble with the walk. None of those names are all that interesting to talk about right now, besides maybe saying that Heaney can be a worthwhile streamer this year given that he’s throwing full pitch counts at times, although not every time. His pitch counts this year:
90, 82, 79, 90, 79, 74, 97 (last night)
So generally avoid him, but at least he’s capable of getting through six innings this year. We saw that just seven times last year, and this year we’ve already seen it three times in seven starts.
The less than stellar performers:
Sean Manaea: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 K, 1 BB. Not a disastrous outing, but he’s just not very good with a 7.9% K-BB% on the year and a very low 44.7% Strike%
Justin Steele: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 K, 1 BB. Again, didn’t hurt your fantasy team too badly but just didn’t have it quite yet with the 41.2% Strike% and 5.9% SwStr%. I assume the command will come back after he shakes off some of the rust - he made just one rehab start and threw only 68 pitches in this outing.
Walker Buehler: 4 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 4 K, 0 BB. Not the worst outing in the world with a 46.8% Strike% and 36.4% Ball%. He threw 77 pitches. This was his first Major League start since June 10th, 2022. That’s 696 days. Crazy.
Triston McKenzie: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 6 K, 3 BB. It was fine. 10.8% SwStr% and 45.8% Strike% are mediocre numbers, but gritted through five innings in a good matchup and helped your ERA and strikeout marks. Really not a bad outing at all in the box score, just much less dominant against an exploitable lineup than you want to see.
Roddery Munoz: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 5 K, 4 BB. I wonder if we shouldn’t just ignore starts against the Dodgers entirely. They have slapped a 5.24 ERA on opposing pitchers this year, that’s the highest mark in the league bey a wide margin (BAL second at 4.96).
Mitch Keller threw a complete game against the Angels without being particular impressive by the underlying numbers:
109 pitches, 6.4% SwStr%, 45.9% Strike%, 31.2% Ball%, 5 K, 1 BB
There seems to be a thing out there where if you have these guys with three different fastball variations and just in general a huge pitch arsenal, they can really beat their underlying numbers. We saw Keller get a ton of called strikes last year and that really propelled his first-half breakout.
He’s throwing an assload of fastballs this year.
He more evenly mixed those three variations last night. I’m not sure if that explains the run prevention, but it does make sense that it would much tougher to square up a guy who is tunneling three different fastballs that move in different ways. The numbers for the year:
Thirty-two plus twenty-four plus twenty-two is seventy-eight. Thats 78% fastball usage. Last year it was 73%, so just a slight increase I suppose. Thew sweeper isn’t great but it’s not awful (13% SwStr%, .299 xwOBA allowed last two seasons and a high Stuff+ score), so I don’t know why he doesn’t throw it much. But I’m saying too much about Mitch Keller. I’m just glad the Pirates are showing signs of life again with three straight wins (albeit against two of the worst teams in the league).
Speaking of the Pirates, Paul Skenes has not been called up. Manager Derek Shelton was asked about him in a press conference and he said “he’s scheduled to pitch in Indianapolis this weekend” while looking very sheepish. His eyes were looking up. And what I know about lying is that if you’re looking up while saying something, you’re either
Legitimately trying to recall something from memory
Lying
And since this wasn’t a situation where he would have had to recall something (if he was trying to remember where the AAA team was playing this coming weekend, he didn’t do a good job because they’ll be in Louisville), so I personally think he was just blabbing. Everyone reported this as if it was a clear statement from the Pirates that Skenes wasn’t coming up this weekend, but that’s not at all what happened. There are still three options
Shelton doesn’t know what the plan is for Skenes [unlikely]
Shelton wasn’t supposed to announce the call-up in a pre-game post conference
Skenes is actually not coming up this weekend without an injury happening between now and then
What’s most likely? I suppose Occam’s Razor would choose option three, but I personally still think there’s a pretty good chance he starts for the Pirates on Saturday. Bailey Falter stinks, the Pirates are at home, and they can’t really think Skenes has anything left to benefit from facing AAA hitters. The only logical reason to keep him down would be if they’re waiting out the probable Super-Two date, and that’s certainly possible…
All of this is just me trying to avoid being wrong when I confidently told everybody Skenes would debut last weekend or this weekend. I don’t want to be wrong again, it hurts my feelings.
Hitter to Add
I started doing this one day and said I’d do it every day and then I forgot all about it immediately. I wonder what other stuff I have said I’d do and then forgot about. Anyways, today we look at Jonny Deluca.
I liked this kid a good bit when I was reviewing teams this winter. Check out his write-up here. The Rays acquired him in the Tyler Glasnow trade, so it was he and Ryan Pepiot as the big pieces in there. He’s off to a nice start in the Majors after missing some time at the beginning of the season to injury:
16 PA, .333/.375/.667, 1 HR, 2 SB, 7.7% Brl%, 12.5% K%, 6.3% BB%, 78.8% Cont%
Okay it’s 16 plate appearances, so hold your horses here. But a homer and two steals with that low of a K% is impressive for a quick four-game span. I’d add him in deep leagues. He seems to be playing in place of Jose Siri, so if you have Jose Siri… that sucks, you should have done better. But that’s what you’re going to get if you’re like Siri and have a 41% K% and 57% Contact%.
100+ PA Hitter K% Leaders & Losers
Losers
Siri 41%
Benson 40%
Jones 36%
O Cruz 36%
Julien 35%
Stanton 34%
Raleigh 34%
Gorman 33%
Busch 33%
Garver 33%
Candelario 33%
Gelof 33%
E De La Cruz 33%
Marsh 33%
Leaders
Arraez 7%
Kwan 8%
Hoo Lee 8%
Betts 9%
Horner 9%
Pasquantnio 10%
Verdugo 10%
Campusano 11%
Ramirez 11%
Bregman 12%
McNeil 12.5%
Naylor 13%
Lopez 13%
Donovan 13%
There are just four hitters in the league with a Brl% above 10% and a K% below 15%:
J Naylor: 12.6% K%, 10.5% Brl%
W Smith: 14.0% K%, 10.3% Brl%
J Soto: 14.0% K%, 16.5% Brl%
S Perez: 14.8% K%, 17.1% Brl%
Hard Hit Leaders with a K% Below 20%
Ohtani 61.5%
Soto 60.9%
William Contreras 57.1%
Witt Jr. 56.6%
Ozuna 56.4%
Perez 52.4%
Tucker 51.5%
K Marte 50.0%
Nimmo 49.5%
Yandy Diaz 49.2%
Rutschman 48.2%
Y Alvarez 48.2%
Yainer Diaz 48.1%
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Yu Darvish
2. Tyler Alexander
3. Cole Ragans
4. Zack Wheeler
5. Andrew Heaney
6. Luis Castillo
7. Jack Flaherty
8. Simeon Woods Richardson
9. Kyle Gibson
10. Bryse Wilson
11. Walker Buehler
12. Triston McKenzie
13. Roddery Munoz
14. Tyler Anderson
15. Alex Wood
16. Mitch Keller
17. Justin Steele
18. Mason Black
19. Sean Manaea
20. Mike Clevinger
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Zack Wheeler (vs. SF): 38.75 Points
2. Mitch Keller (vs. LAA): 28.65 Points
3. Simeon Woods Richardson (vs. SEA): 28.3 Points
4. Cole Ragans (vs. MIL): 23.1 Points
5. Bryse Wilson (vs. KC): 23.1 Points
6. Yu Darvish (vs. CHC): 22.85 Points
7. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. MIN): 19.41 Points
8. Alex Wood (vs. TEX): 17.7 Points
9. Triston McKenzie (vs. DET): 17.65 Points
10. Andrew Heaney (vs. OAK): 17.3 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 19 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
2. Cole Ragans (KC): 19 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
3. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 15 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
4. Yu Darvish (SD): 15 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
5. Jack Flaherty (DET): 15 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
6. Luis Castillo (SEA): 14 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
7. Roddery Munoz (MIA): 13 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
8. Tyler Alexander (TB): 13 Whiffs (75 Pitches)
9. Kyle Gibson (STL): 12 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
10. Bryse Wilson (MIL): 11 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Yu Darvish (SD): 59.0 Strike%, 25.3 Ball%
2. Tyler Alexander (TB): 58.7 Strike%, 26.7 Ball%
3. Luis Castillo (SEA): 52.0 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
4. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 51.5 Strike%, 26.8 Ball%
5. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 51.0 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%
6. Cole Ragans (KC): 50.5 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%
7. Jack Flaherty (DET): 49.5 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
8. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 48.8 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%
9. Alex Wood (OAK): 47.4 Strike%, 30.8 Ball%
10. Walker Buehler (LAD): 46.8 Strike%, 36.4 Ball%
11. Bryse Wilson (MIL): 46.1 Strike%, 40.4 Ball%
12. Mitch Keller (PIT): 45.9 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
13. Triston McKenzie (CLE): 45.8 Strike%, 39.8 Ball%
14. Roddery Munoz (MIA): 45.2 Strike%, 39.4 Ball%
15. Kyle Gibson (STL): 44.0 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Mitch Keller: 109 Pitches, 26 Outs, 4.19 POUT
2. Alex Wood: 78 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.33 POUT
3. Simeon Woods Richardson: 82 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.56 POUT
4. Zack Wheeler: 102 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.86 POUT
5. Justin Steele: 68 Pitches, 14 Outs, 4.86 POUT
6. Tyler Anderson: 93 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.89 POUT
7. Luis Castillo: 98 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.9 POUT
8. Bryse Wilson: 89 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.94 POUT
9. Kyle Gibson: 91 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.06 POUT
10. Sean Manaea: 89 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.24 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Jack Flaherty's CU velo (18 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 78.0
Alex Wood's SL velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 80.6
Tyler Anderson's FF velo (37 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 88.4
Tyler Anderson's CH velo (36 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 78.3
Kyle Gibson's SI velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 90.2
Tyler Anderson's FC velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 82.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Sean Manaea's SI usage (48.3%) up 31.6 points
Sean Manaea's FC usage (22.5%) up 12.6 points
Tyler Alexander's ST usage (22.7%) up 14.4 points
Yu Darvish's SL usage (33.7%) up 15.1 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: -41.2%
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: -20.5%
Jordan Hicks Split-Finger: +20.4%
Joe Ross 4-Seam Fastball: +19.0%
Hunter Greene 4-Seam Fastball: +18.0%
Joe Ross Sinker: -16.9%
Shota Imanaga 4-Seam Fastball: -16.2%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: +15.1%
Jordan Hicks Sweeper: -14.2%
Hunter Greene Slider: -14.1%
Zack Littell Sinker: -14.1%
Mitch Keller 4-Seam Fastball: +14.1%
Yu Darvish Slider: +13.6%
Luis Severino Cutter: -13.2%
Michael Soroka 4-Seam Fastball: -12.6%
Kutter Crawford Cutter: +12.4%
Max Fried Sweeper: -12.1%
Ronel Blanco 4-Seam Fastball: -12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 91 TBF, 37.4% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 97 TBF, 36.5% CSW%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 74 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 73 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Jared Jones - 82 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 75 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Chris Sale - 74 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Zack Littell - 100 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Triston McKenzie - 87 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 80 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 91 TBF, 39.6% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 80 TBF, 36.2% K%
Pablo Lopez - 80 TBF, 36.2% K%
Sonny Gray - 75 TBF, 36.0% K%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 34.4% K%
Tarik Skubal - 97 TBF, 34.0% K%
Dane Dunning - 78 TBF, 33.3% K%
Jared Jones - 82 TBF, 32.9% K%
Nathan Eovaldi - 73 TBF, 30.1% K%
Cole Ragans - 83 TBF, 30.1% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 91 TBF, 36.3% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 97 TBF, 32.0% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 80 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 80 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Jared Jones - 82 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 75 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Zack Littell - 100 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 74 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 97 TBF, 23.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Nathan Eovaldi - 73 TBF, 72.2% GB%
Max Fried - 101 TBF, 71.0% GB%
Quinn Priester - 71 TBF, 68.5% GB%
Logan Webb - 97 TBF, 66.2% GB%
Keaton Winn - 72 TBF, 62.0% GB%
Jose Soriano - 81 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Tanner Houck - 105 TBF, 59.7% GB%
Cole Irvin - 71 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Jordan Hicks - 86 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 92 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 74 TBF, 29.7 K%, 2.7 BB%, 51.0% GB%
Derek Law - 47 TBF, 36.2 K%, 2.1 BB%, 51.7% GB%
Jared Jones - 82 TBF, 32.9 K%, 3.7 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Mitch Spence - 56 TBF, 28.6 K%, 5.4 BB%, 61.1% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 94 TBF, 28.7 K%, 7.4 BB%, 46.6% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 80 TBF, 36.2 K%, 5.0 BB%, 44.7% GB%
Reynaldo Lopez - 70 TBF, 28.6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 44.4% GB%
Sonny Gray - 75 TBF, 36.0 K%, 6.7 BB%, 46.5% GB%
Spencer Turnbull - 66 TBF, 30.3 K%, 7.6 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 80 TBF, 36.2 K%, 5.0 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Tanner Houck - +2.3% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Zack Littell - +6.7% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Tarik Skubal - +5.2% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Erick Fedde - +4.0% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +7.4% CSW%, -6.0 BB%
Clarke Schmidt - +2.3% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Kutter Crawford - +2.5% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Ranger Suarez - +3.0% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Chris Sale - +2.7% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Miles Mikolas - +5.8% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
JP Sears - +3.5% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Tanner Bibee - +2.8% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Taijuan Walker - +2.2% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Brandon Nimmo (NYM) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Christopher Morel (CHC) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Corey Seager (TEX) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Riley Greene (DET) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Hardest Hit Balls
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 111.5mph - single
Jake Burger (MIA) - 111.3mph - field_out
Andy Pages (LAD) - 111.1mph - single
Brandon Nimmo (NYM) - 111.1mph - home_run
Brandon Nimmo (NYM) - 110.9mph - single
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 110.6mph - single
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) - 110.2mph - nan
Connor Joe (PIT) - 110.2mph - nan
Brett Baty (NYM) - 110.0mph - field_out
Riley Greene (DET) - 109.8mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Matt Olson - 67 PA, 0.2 wOBA, 0.35 xwOBA, 0.15 Diff
Andrew McCutchen - 59 PA, 0.264 wOBA, 0.402 xwOBA, 0.138 Diff
Manny Machado - 58 PA, 0.271 wOBA, 0.4 xwOBA, 0.129 Diff
Corey Seager - 82 PA, 0.215 wOBA, 0.335 xwOBA, 0.12 Diff
Lars Nootbaar - 74 PA, 0.213 wOBA, 0.322 xwOBA, 0.109 Diff
Mike Trout - 56 PA, 0.27 wOBA, 0.377 xwOBA, 0.107 Diff
Marcell Ozuna - 67 PA, 0.348 wOBA, 0.446 xwOBA, 0.098 Diff
Emmanuel Rivera - 62 PA, 0.253 wOBA, 0.343 xwOBA, 0.09 Diff
Brendan Donovan - 81 PA, 0.226 wOBA, 0.312 xwOBA, 0.086 Diff
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 86 PA, 0.305 wOBA, 0.388 xwOBA, 0.083 Diff
Bottom 10
Connor Wong - 56 PA, 0.442 wOBA, 0.311 xwOBA, -0.131 Diff
Luis Rengifo - 62 PA, 0.423 wOBA, 0.314 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff
Josh Smith - 69 PA, 0.423 wOBA, 0.316 xwOBA, -0.107 Diff
Daulton Varsho - 67 PA, 0.409 wOBA, 0.308 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Ryan Jeffers - 71 PA, 0.423 wOBA, 0.325 xwOBA, -0.098 Diff
Wilyer Abreu - 73 PA, 0.42 wOBA, 0.324 xwOBA, -0.096 Diff
Alec Bohm - 80 PA, 0.51 wOBA, 0.423 xwOBA, -0.087 Diff
Trea Turner - 74 PA, 0.408 wOBA, 0.323 xwOBA, -0.085 Diff
Harold Ramirez - 61 PA, 0.314 wOBA, 0.231 xwOBA, -0.083 Diff
Gunnar Henderson - 82 PA, 0.423 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, -0.081 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 80 PA, 55 BIP, 15 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Riley Greene - 82 PA, 45 BIP, 11 Brls, 24.4 Brl%
Andrew McCutchen - 59 PA, 37 BIP, 9 Brls, 24.3 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 69 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Christian Walker - 74 PA, 50 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Davis Schneider - 53 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Brent Rooker - 62 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Shea Langeliers - 63 PA, 48 BIP, 9 Brls, 18.8 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 81 PA, 43 BIP, 8 Brls, 18.6 Brl%
Salvador Perez - 71 PA, 54 BIP, 10 Brls, 18.5 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 80 PA, 0.526 xwOBA
Salvador Perez - 71 PA, 0.458 xwOBA
Marcell Ozuna - 67 PA, 0.446 xwOBA
Riley Greene - 82 PA, 0.446 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 81 PA, 0.431 xwOBA
Brent Rooker - 62 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Christian Walker - 74 PA, 0.429 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 83 PA, 0.429 xwOBA
Alec Bohm - 80 PA, 0.423 xwOBA
Rafael Devers - 56 PA, 0.421 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 70 PA, 104 Swings, 97.1 Cont%
Michael Massey - 53 PA, 93 Swings, 92.5 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 71 PA, 122 Swings, 91.8 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 87 PA, 145 Swings, 91.7 Cont%
Wilmer Flores - 56 PA, 85 Swings, 90.6 Cont%
Nathaniel Lowe - 64 PA, 118 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Jung Hoo Lee - 74 PA, 124 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 82 PA, 149 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 84 PA, 129 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 90 PA, 163 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
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