MLB Daily Notes - May 8th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Starting Pitcher Recap
Shota Imanaga - 20 whiffs! Just the 24th 20-whiff start of the young season, although this time he did give up two earned runs, and that raised his ERA all the way up to 1.08. Sonny Gray is the lone sub-1 ERA now, and he’s made a couple fewer starts than most. The SwStr% is now up to 16.5% and the Ball% is at 32.2% with a 26.9% K% and 3.1% BB%. So good.
Kutter Crawford - Pretty nice outing against the Braves for Kutter who continues his nice season. 6 IP, 5 R, 2 R, 6 K, 2 BB and a high 19.5% SwStr%.
Corbin Burnes - Another fine start for him, but the K-BB% sits at 18.8% this year. I mean that’s very good, but it’s not anywhere near the league’s best ratios. His SwStr% is good at 13.9% but the Strike% and Ball% stuff are both right about league average. The 25.3% K% is less than what you like to see and it matches last year which was a big move downward from his previous marks. He’s allowing a lot of balls in play, and that’s worked fine for him over the last two years but it’s really not what you love to see from your fantasy’ team ace.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 8 innings and another easy Dodgers win. The strikeouts weren’t great (five), but he was hyper-efficient and threw a ton of strikes (24.7% Ball%), so he was just attacking a weak Marlins lineup and that worked. His season K% is now 27.8%, which is very good but not elite - although the walk rate being below 5% makes him a clear fantasy ace.
Patrick Sandoval - The Pirates did it again and handed another elite line to a mediocre pitcher. 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 7 K, 1 BB, 16.5% SwStr%, 31.1% Ball%. Really no reason to bother with him in 12-teamers, this is just a testament to the exploitable-ness of the Pirates.
Bailey Ober - The pitch counts really haven’t been there for Ober, he threw just 84 pitches here. He has thrown more than 90 pitches just once, and he’s been under 85 pitches in all but one start. Kind of strange there, and that will hurt him in quality starts leagues. But he’s been great since that first disastrous start of the year (6 GS, 2.55 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 26.2% K%, 5.4% BB%).
Jose Berrios - It finally caught up to him, and it was scary. 3.2 IP, 7 H, 8 ER, 7 K, 2 BB. He was over-performing before this (4.30 SIERA vs. his 1.44 ERA), and after that start the ERA ballooned up to 3.06. The K-BB% is bad at 13.3%, so I think Berrios is like an SP4 or SP5 in 12-team fantasy leagues.
Edward Cabrera - He only gave up one hit to the Dodgers! How’s that for some spin. 2 IP, 1 H, 4 R, 1 K, 4 BB. The 44.8% Ball% and 44.8% Strike% are classic CaBBrera. He’ll have a few more elite starts when he lucks into some good command, I’m sure, but you can’t really be confident with him at all.
Frankie Montas - The return was nice for Frankie - 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 K, 1 BB. Just an 11.5% SwStr% though, but he got it done pounding the strike zone (29.9% Ball%). He’s borderline in 12-teamers, and I would want to see him start getting a few more whiffs to add him to any fantasy teams.
Cristopher Sanchez - Strong line here 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 5 K, 2 BB, only a 10.1% SwStr% and 43.8% Strike%, so he let a lot of balls get into play and it worked out fine. His season K% is now 21.4% and the walk rate is much too high at 9.4%, so he’s not going to be reliable at all, but he does have a crazy high 62% GB% which will turn into some good starts.
Zac Gallen - Six scoreless innings, but a 10.1% SwStr% and a 40.5% Ball%. Effectively wild, I guess. He therw just 79 pitches but it was a good start.
Trevor Williams - The guy just throws up elite starts every once in awhile. He struck out eight Orioles and raised his season K% to 21.1% with the 8.5% BB%. So he’s still not a useful fantasy pticher, but we can’t ignore that line: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 8 K, 0 BB.
Reynaldo Lopez - He did not have a good start at all, although he did avoid major damage. 5.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 5 K, 4 BB. The 8.8% SwStr% and 40.7% Ball% are both disasters. But we can forgive that for now. On the season he still sports a nice 13.7% SwStr%, 25.5% K%, but a high 9.9% BB% now. That makes the K-BB% 15.6%, which is lower than we like. Being on the Braves helps with the wins and whatnot, I still think Lopez is just not going to have the success he’s had early on for very long (1.53 ERA, 3.84 SIERA).
Kyle Harrison - 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 K, 2 BB. That was in Coors, so it’s an extra good result, but a 5.8% SwStr% and 38.4% Strike% will almost never turn into seven scoreless innings. The Rockies are hitting .244/.309/.378 at home this year, their opponents are hitting .287/.363/.415. One of these days the Rockies will put up a big number in Coors, but it wasn’t last night.
Zach Eflin - 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 3 K, 0 BB. Pretty similar to Harrison here. Great box score result but a bunch of red numbers in the strike-earning. 4.3% SwStr%, 41.5% Strike%. He just allowed the contact to happen (30.9% Ball%), and that worked out fine obviously. Not a bad strategy against the White Sox, but his K% is below 20% for the year now and that’s really not a good thing for the future (His K% was 26.5% last year and the career mark is 21%, so last year seems like the outlier).
Quinn Priester - Awful. 4.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 K, 2 BB. Just a 4.1% SwStr% and 35.1% Ball%. It’s a shame. He was the low man of the day in SwStr%, which I should start punishing people for.
Hitter Add of the Day
This section will be better when the player causes the section rather than the section causing the player. Some days I will roll in here with a name I know I want to talk about, and some days I will just put the section header there and then go searching for someone.
The guy I found today is Tyler Nevin. The son of the great Phil Nevin. He’s 26 and playing for the Athletics now, in case you aren’t paying much attention to left coast baseball. He’s hitting .277/.349/.426 with a .775 OPS and four homers. The Brl% is at the league average of 8.2%, the K% is better than average at 20.8%, the walk rate is fine at 7.5%, and the contact rate is fine at 74%. Basically he’s been a league-average bat. And league average bats that play everyday can be very useful in like a 15-team fantasy league. He’s also playing all over the field. Appearances by spot:
OF: 16
1B: 10
3B: 8
DH: 3
So he has OF eligibility, has 1B eligibility on most sites, and is on his way to 3B eligibility. He was with the Tigers last year and actually played a bit in the Majors, which I have no memory of. He posted just a .622 OPS with the Tigers last year, but was nice in AAA at a .943 OPS. League average is probably about as good as he can do, and good chance he falls below that - but if you need a guy to move around your lineup that won’t absolutely kill you - there you go.
Told you this section would be worse when I go dumpster diving for players.
SwStr% vs. Ball% Plot
I just love this thing so much.
Brl% vs. K% Plot
Now I am off do as much real-life work as possible before I get sad about it.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Shota Imanaga
2. Kutter Crawford
3. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
4. Patrick Sandoval
5. Corbin Burnes
6. Bailey Ober
7. Randy Vasquez
8. Frankie Montas
9. Jose Berrios
10. Jose Urena
11. Trevor Williams
12. Miles Mikolas
13. Ross Stripling
14. Michael Soroka
15. Cristopher Sanchez
16. Zac Gallen
17. Edward Cabrera
18. Dakota Hudson
19. Luis Gil
20. Seth Lugo
21. Colin Rea
22. Reynaldo Lopez
23. Justin Verlander
24. Kenta Maeda
25. Kyle Harrison
26. Zach Eflin
27. Emerson Hancock
28. Jose Butto
29. Quinn Priester
30. Logan Allen
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Patrick Sandoval (vs. PIT): 31.35 Points
2. Trevor Williams (vs. BAL): 30.05 Points
3. Zac Gallen (vs. CIN): 27.1 Points
4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (vs. MIA): 25.0 Points
5. Cristopher Sanchez (vs. TOR): 22.95 Points
6. Shota Imanaga (vs. SD): 22.95 Points
7. Luis Gil (vs. HOU): 22.5 Points
8. Frankie Montas (vs. ARI): 22.5 Points
9. Kyle Harrison (vs. COL): 20.15 Points
10. Zach Eflin (vs. CWS): 20.15 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 20 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 17 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
3. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 17 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
4. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 17 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
5. Corbin Burnes (BAL): 17 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
6. Michael Soroka (CWS): 12 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
7. Bailey Ober (MIN): 12 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
8. Jose Berrios (TOR): 11 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
9. Frankie Montas (CIN): 10 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
10. Jose Urena (TEX): 10 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Randy Vasquez (SD): 59.0 Strike%, 27.7 Ball%
2. Bailey Ober (MIN): 57.1 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%
3. Trevor Williams (WSH): 55.8 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
4. Jose Berrios (TOR): 55.6 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
5. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 52.4 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%
6. Tyler Ferguson (OAK): 51.9 Strike%, 40.4 Ball%
7. Frankie Montas (CIN): 51.7 Strike%, 29.9 Ball%
8. Yerry Rodriguez (TEX): 50.8 Strike%, 37.3 Ball%
9. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 50.5 Strike%, 24.7 Ball%
10. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 49.4 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
11. Miles Mikolas (STL): 48.0 Strike%, 28.0 Ball%
12. Corbin Burnes (BAL): 47.4 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
13. Justin Verlander (HOU): 46.4 Strike%, 32.0 Ball%
14. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 46.1 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%
15. Hogan Harris (OAK): 45.7 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Seth Lugo: 77 Pitches, 20 Outs, 3.85 POUT
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 97 Pitches, 24 Outs, 4.04 POUT
3. Kyle Harrison: 86 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.1 POUT
4. Cristopher Sanchez: 89 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.24 POUT
5. Zac Gallen: 79 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.39 POUT
6. Zach Eflin: 94 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.48 POUT
7. Colin Rea: 65 Pitches, 14 Outs, 4.64 POUT
8. Frankie Montas: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT
9. Patrick Sandoval: 103 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.9 POUT
10. Corbin Burnes: 95 Pitches, 19 Outs, 5.0 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Randy Vasquez's CU velo (20 pitches) UP 2.8mph to 83.6
Cristopher Sanchez's CH velo (23 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 84.8
Jose Urena's CH velo (12 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 89.5
Frankie Montas's FC velo (12 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 90.9
Frankie Montas's FS velo (13 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 86.5
Jose Urena's FF velo (10 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 97.0
Bailey Ober's CH velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 82.1
Brad Keller's CH velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 88.6
Dakota Hudson's SL velo (29 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 82.8
Hogan Harris's CU velo (32 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 74.0
Logan Allen's CH velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 80.3
Reynaldo Lopez's FF velo (56 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 95.3
Zac Gallen's CU velo (21 pitches) DOWN -3.0mph to 79.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bailey Ober's FC usage (19.0%) up 14.2 points
Brad Keller's CH usage (39.7%) up 23.4 points
Edward Cabrera's CU usage (36.2%) up 10.3 points
Frankie Montas's FF usage (48.3%) up 13.6 points
Hogan Harris's FF usage (58.5%) up 10.2 points
Hogan Harris's CU usage (34.0%) up 18.5 points
Jose Butto's SI usage (32.6%) up 18.9 points
Jose Urena's SL usage (44.4%) up 14.4 points
Logan Allen's FC usage (25.4%) up 12.9 points
Michael Soroka's SL usage (41.4%) up 11.6 points
Patrick Sandoval's SI usage (26.2%) up 13.9 points
Randy Vasquez's CU usage (24.1%) up 10.1 points
Ross Stripling's SI usage (23.3%) up 11.1 points
Seth Lugo's SV usage (16.9%) up 15.7 points
Seth Lugo's FC usage (11.7%) up 10.9 points
Trevor Williams's ST usage (20.8%) up 15.2 points
Zach Eflin's FC usage (41.5%) up 15.5 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: -41.2%
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: -23.7%
Jordan Hicks Split-Finger: +20.4%
Joe Ross 4-Seam Fastball: +19.0%
Hunter Greene 4-Seam Fastball: +18.0%
Joe Ross Sinker: -16.9%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: +15.8%
Miles Mikolas Slider: -15.4%
Jordan Hicks Sweeper: -14.2%
Hunter Greene Slider: -14.1%
Zack Littell Sinker: -14.1%
Mitch Keller 4-Seam Fastball: +14.1%
Yu Darvish Slider: +13.6%
Luis Severino Cutter: -13.2%
Seth Lugo Slurve: +12.3%
Seth Lugo Curveball: -12.2%
Max Fried Sweeper: -12.1%
Ronel Blanco 4-Seam Fastball: -12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 91 TBF, 37.4% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 97 TBF, 36.5% CSW%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 103 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Zack Littell - 100 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 91 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Triston McKenzie - 87 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 102 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 80 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 105 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 91 TBF, 39.6% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 80 TBF, 36.2% K%
Pablo Lopez - 80 TBF, 36.2% K%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 34.4% K%
Tarik Skubal - 97 TBF, 34.0% K%
Cole Ragans - 83 TBF, 30.1% K%
Luis Castillo - 97 TBF, 29.9% K%
Patrick Sandoval - 91 TBF, 29.7% K%
Bryce Miller - 86 TBF, 29.1% K%
Nick Lodolo - 94 TBF, 28.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 91 TBF, 36.3% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 97 TBF, 32.0% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 80 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 80 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Zack Littell - 100 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Shota Imanaga - 101 TBF, 23.8% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 97 TBF, 23.7% K-BB%
Jon Gray - 81 TBF, 23.5% K-BB%
Nestor Cortes - 103 TBF, 23.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Max Fried - 101 TBF, 71.0% GB%
Logan Webb - 97 TBF, 66.2% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 88 TBF, 64.5% GB%
Quinn Priester - 95 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 91 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Tanner Houck - 105 TBF, 59.7% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 92 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Luis Severino - 101 TBF, 56.7% GB%
Kyle Harrison - 92 TBF, 54.1% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 96 TBF, 52.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 74 TBF, 29.7 K%, 2.7 BB%, 51.0% GB%
JP Sears - 72 TBF, 29.2 K%, 4.2 BB%, 43.8% GB%
Jared Jones - 66 TBF, 30.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 44.2% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 94 TBF, 28.7 K%, 7.4 BB%, 46.6% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 80 TBF, 36.2 K%, 5.0 BB%, 44.7% GB%
Sonny Gray - 75 TBF, 36.0 K%, 6.7 BB%, 46.5% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 80 TBF, 36.2 K%, 5.0 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Become a paid sub today to get the rest of the daily notes. It’s just $9/month and you get absolutely everything that I do here. Check out the about page here for more. 10% of your subscription goes to charitable organizations such as Samaritan’s Purse, a Christian humanitarian aid organization.