MLB Daily Notes: Monday, April 25
France re-elected Emmanuel Macron last week.
In related news, I’ve impeached myself over the Ty France scandal. The fake Frenchman is now the JA model’s #1 hitter. I talked relentless s-word on France privately and publicly:
And he’s really crammed it up my cramhole with a sick line early on.
.375/.452/.646, 5 HR, 9% Brl%, 11 % K%, 78% Cont%
Usually, after my home league draft (a 15+ year league with my high school buddies), I go over the top making fun of everybody’s worst draft pick. This year I didn’t have a ton of time for that, so I really just zoned in on one guy. It was, of course, Ty France. Drafted by the league’s biggest punching bag, I really went to town on that pick, and I’m feeling the pain right now.
All of this leaves me three options
Retire from baseball analysis, focus on my real job, dominate, become a manager, make a bunch of real money
Alter the JA model to bury or delete the Ty France row so I’m not publicly humiliated, delete my old tweets and never speak his name again
Make fun of myself on this blog and Twitter for how wrong I was and then continue to make recommendations with shining confidence as if my credibility hasn’t been completely eviscerated by this scandal
It was a tough call, but I chose option three. I just can’t give up the fast life of being a fantasy baseball analyst online, the women that come with this life are just too much to surrender.
I’m going to develop two new reports this week
Daily hitter matchup scores. These will be based on the opposing SP and how they’ve performed over the last year or so, keeping in mind the splits data as well (so if a pitcher gets wrecked by left-handed hitters, those left-handed hitters facing him today will be given a high score, stuff like that).
Advanced hitter plate discipline scores. New premium subscriber Eric Samulski has been chatting me up about this, and we’ve got some good ideas.
I’ll make the reports fo-free for a week or so when they’re live but then I’ll limit them to only you honorable people who have chosen to pay me.
Alright, here we go!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 20.7 SwStr%, 39.1 CSW%
2. Shane McClanahan (TB): 24.4 SwStr%, 38.4 CSW%
3. Aaron Nola (PHI): 14.6 SwStr%, 37.1 CSW%
4. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 15.2 SwStr%, 35.9 CSW%
5. Eric Lauer (MIL): 17.3 SwStr%, 35.7 CSW%
6. Lucas Giolito (CWS): 22.4 SwStr%, 35.5 CSW%
7. Tylor Megill (NYM): 13.0 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
8. Jose Suarez (LAA): 12.8 SwStr%, 32.1 CSW%
9. Madison Bumgarner (ARI): 3.8 SwStr%, 32.1 CSW%
10. Luis Garcia (HOU): 10.6 SwStr%, 31.8 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Eric Lauer - 6.0 IP - 83.25 JA Points
2. Gerrit Cole - 6.67 IP - 76.0 JA Points
3. Aaron Nola - 7.0 IP - 75.75 JA Points
4. Shane McClanahan - 7.0 IP - 67.75 JA Points
5. Jesus Luzardo - 5.0 IP - 62.5 JA Points
6. Lucas Giolito - 4.0 IP - 52.5 JA Points
7. Tylor Megill - 6.67 IP - 49.75 JA Points
8. Madison Bumgarner - 5.0 IP - 43.0 JA Points
9. Cole Irvin - 5.0 IP - 41.75 JA Points
10. Robbie Ray - 6.0 IP - 41.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 3.0 GS - 63.31 JA Points
2. Kyle Wright (ATL) - 3.0 GS - 62.57 JA Points
3. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 3.0 GS - 60.66 JA Points
4. Nestor Cortes (NYY) - 3.0 GS - 57.29 JA Points
5. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 4.0 GS - 54.52 JA Points
6. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 3.0 GS - 52.68 JA Points
7. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 3.0 GS - 52.5 JA Points
8. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) - 3.0 GS - 51.99 JA Points
9. Pablo Lopez (MIA) - 3.0 GS - 47.16 JA Points
10. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 3.0 GS - 46.97 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Tylor Megill's CH velo (18 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 88.3
Jesus Luzardo's SI velo (13 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 97.4
Chad Kuhl's CH velo (15 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 90.4
Yusei Kikuchi's SL velo (12 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 84.4
Joan Adon's CU velo (13 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 79.9
Jesus Luzardo's FF velo (28 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 97.7
Sean Manaea's CH velo (33 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 86.1
Madison Bumgarner's CU velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 76.4
Rich Hill's FF velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 86.6
Gerrit Cole's FC velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 91.1
Shane McClanahan's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 87.5
Carlos Hernandez's FF velo (34 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 95.4
Justin Steele's SL velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 80.8
Sean Manaea's SI velo (38 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 90.1
Robbie Ray's FF velo (49 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 92.5
Robbie Ray's SL velo (39 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 86.3
Gerrit Cole's KC velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 81.3
Sean Manaea's CU velo (15 pitches) DOWN -5.5mph to 76.9
Pitch Mix Changes
Aaron Civale's FC usage (41.0%) up 12.5 points
Bryce Elder's SI usage (36.5%) up 13.4 points
Carlos Hernandez's CU usage (45.7%) up 27.2 points
Chad Kuhl's SI usage (30.9%) up 16.1 points
Chad Kuhl's CH usage (18.5%) up 13.9 points
Clayton Kershaw's FF usage (46.7%) up 10.1 points
Cole Irvin's CU usage (18.4%) up 14.0 points
Eric Lauer's SL usage (28.6%) up 16.0 points
Gerrit Cole's FC usage (19.6%) up 18.8 points
Jesus Luzardo's CU usage (43.7%) up 13.7 points
Joan Adon's CU usage (18.6%) up 11.3 points
Jose Suarez's FF usage (55.1%) up 14.8 points
Josh Winder's CU usage (16.4%) up 11.1 points
Logan Webb's CH usage (41.8%) up 16.9 points
Luis Garcia's FF usage (57.6%) up 14.6 points
Madison Bumgarner's FC usage (48.7%) up 11.4 points
Robbie Ray's SL usage (41.5%) up 10.3 points
Sean Manaea's CH usage (38.4%) up 13.7 points
Shane McClanahan's CH usage (26.7%) up 18.1 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane McClanahan - 86 TBF, 38.9% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 65 TBF, 36.5% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 69 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Kyle Wright - 66 TBF, 36.1% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 73 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 64 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 71 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Merrill Kelly - 63 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Carlos Carrasco - 66 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 74 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Carlos Rodon - 65 TBF, 44.6% K%
Kyle Wright - 66 TBF, 39.4% K%
Shane McClanahan - 86 TBF, 36.0% K%
Eric Lauer - 67 TBF, 34.3% K%
Max Scherzer - 69 TBF, 33.3% K%
Corbin Burnes - 71 TBF, 31.0% K%
Joe Musgrove - 69 TBF, 30.4% K%
Carlos Carrasco - 66 TBF, 30.3% K%
Kevin Gausman - 73 TBF, 30.1% K%
Aaron Nola - 84 TBF, 29.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kyle Wright - 66 TBF, 36.4% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 65 TBF, 35.4% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 86 TBF, 30.2% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 73 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%
Joe Musgrove - 69 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Carlos Carrasco - 66 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%
Eric Lauer - 67 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 71 TBF, 25.4% K-BB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 65 TBF, 24.6% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 84 TBF, 23.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 62 TBF, 71.8% GB%
Logan Webb - 99 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Matt Brash - 64 TBF, 61.5% GB%
Aaron Nola - 84 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Noah Syndergaard - 67 TBF, 58.0% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 86 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Bryce Elder - 69 TBF, 54.3% GB%
Brad Keller - 68 TBF, 53.1% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 63 TBF, 52.5% GB%
German Marquez - 75 TBF, 52.5% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 84 TBF, 29.8 K%, 6.0 BB%, 58.8% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 70 TBF, 28.6 K%, 5.7 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Chris Martin - 27 TBF, 33.3 K%, 7.4 BB%, 62.5% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 61 TBF, 37.7 K%, 0.0 BB%, 48.6% GB%
Josh Fleming - 45 TBF, 28.9 K%, 4.4 BB%, 66.7% GB%
Keegan Thompson - 47 TBF, 29.8 K%, 6.4 BB%, 62.1% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 69 TBF, 27.5 K%, 7.2 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Kyle Wright - 66 TBF, 39.4 K%, 3.0 BB%, 48.6% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 63 TBF, 28.6 K%, 7.9 BB%, 52.5% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 69 TBF, 27.5 K%, 7.2 BB%, 46.5% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 86 TBF, 36.0 K%, 5.8 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Wil Crowe - 51 TBF, 31.4 K%, 7.8 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Byron Buxton (MIN) 6 PA, 14 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Cody Bellinger (LAD) 4 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Freddie Freeman (LAD) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Joc Pederson (SF) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 4 Barrels, 2 HR
Tim Anderson (CWS) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Tyler O'Neill (STL) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Joc Pederson - 4.0 PA - 73.25 JA Points
2. Ty France - 5.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
3. Trey Mancini - 5.0 PA - 35.75 JA Points
4. Kelvin Gutierrez - 4.0 PA - 28.5 JA Points
5. Tony Kemp - 4.0 PA - 27.5 JA Points
6. Stephen Piscotty - 3.0 PA - 24.0 JA Points
7. Tim Anderson - 5.0 PA - 23.75 JA Points
8. Freddie Freeman - 4.0 PA - 23.75 JA Points
9. D.J. LeMahieu - 4.0 PA - 23.75 JA Points
10. Yandy Diaz - 4.0 PA - 23.75 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Ty France (SEA) - 73 PA - 150 JA Points
2. Matt Olson - 76 PA - 148 JA Points
3. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 65 PA - 145 JA Points
4. Ji-Man Choi (TB) - 47 PA - 143 JA Points
5. Andrew Vaughn (CWS) - 44 PA - 143 JA Points
6. Joc Pederson (SF) - 47 PA - 141 JA Points
7. Gavin Lux (LAD) - 45 PA - 136 JA Points
8. Mike Trout (LAA) - PA - 136 JA Points
9. J.P. Crawford (SEA) - 68 PA - 132 JA Points
10. Seiya Suzuki (CHC) - 61 PA - 132 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls - Yesterday
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 115.8mph - foul
Abraham Toro (SEA) - 112.5mph - foul
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 112.1mph - grounded_into_double_play
C.J. Cron (COL) - 112.1mph - foul
Byron Buxton (MIN) - 111.8mph - home_run
Austin Riley (ATL) - 111.6mph - home_run
Joey Gallo (NYY) - 111.2mph - double
Cal Raleigh (SEA) - 111.1mph - foul
Christian Arroyo (BOS) - 111.1mph - foul
Joc Pederson (SF) - 111.0mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 66 PA, 42 BIP, 11 Brls, 26.2 Brl%
Jo Adell - 50 PA, 28 BIP, 6 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Seiya Suzuki - 61 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Hunter Dozier - 52 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 61 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Salvador Perez - 56 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 55 PA, 26 BIP, 5 Brls, 19.2 Brl%
Jose Abreu - 58 PA, 38 BIP, 7 Brls, 18.4 Brl%
Mike Trout - 51 PA, 33 BIP, 6 Brls, 18.2 Brl%
Jeremy Pena - 58 PA, 39 BIP, 7 Brls, 17.9 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 57 PA, 92 Swings, 91.3 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 53 PA, 101 Swings, 91.1 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 51 PA, 79 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Joey Wendle - 48 PA, 105 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Nick Madrigal - 52 PA, 81 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 48 PA, 71 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 48 PA, 73 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Myles Straw - 67 PA, 105 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 59 PA, 97 Swings, 86.6 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 65 PA, 126 Swings, 86.5 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Anthony Rizzo - 67 PA, 14.9 K%, 17.4 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 71 PA, 15.5 K%, 17.9 Brl%
Mike Trout - 51 PA, 17.6 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Pavin Smith - 52 PA, 19.2 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 50 PA, 20.0 K%, 16.2 Brl%
Tim Anderson - 49 PA, 14.3 K%, 17.1 Brl%
Yasmani Grandal - 48 PA, 18.8 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Okay now to the paid stuff. For $5/month or $40/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to
Daily Projections (with DraftKings salaries & scores) Excel & a Tableau Dashboard)
Weekly Projections for next week (this is updated on weekends for the following full week)
Pitch Mix and Velo Changes Tracker
Full daily and season-long pitcher and hitter data reports
Full access to my daily-updated algorithmic hitter and pitcher rankings
More stuff added every week