MLB Daily Notes: Monday, August 1
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
I really want to get work on this new MLB dashboard now that I’ve discovered the daily stats API, so let’s just hit some bullet points from the below notes.
Reid Detmers went for a 36.2% CSW% and a 22.9% SwStr% yesterday. Here’s the pitch breakdown
Elite marks on all three of his primary pitches, he was just absolutely on fire. Since his return from the minors he has made four starts and done this:
30.7% CSW%
15.2% SwStr%
34.4% K%
10.0% BB%
2.0 Brl%
0 Homers
He’s the JA model’s #21 SP since he returned, really looking like he’s figured something out - he should be started in every league right now.
There was a question about if he’ll be pitching for the fantasy playoffs, which is a fair question since the Angels are drawing dead and he’s definitely a big part of their future. He has thrown just 88 innings between MLB and AAA this year, so you would think he would have plenty left. Maybe they won’t let him get past 140 or so, but that still gives him 50 innings over two months, which is about 7 starts or so - so my guess would be that he’ll be perfectly fine in this regard.
Andre Pallante had another good start, but has just a 17.1% K% for the year. In July he has a 22.6% K% with a great 4.3% BB%. He is a ground-ball specialist that is really, really reliant on his four seamer, which somehow has a 70% GB%:
He may be useful as one of those guys to start for some ERA help and maybe some wins and quality starts, but the WHIP is likely going to be bad and the strikeouts probably won’t be there.
Interesting start for George Kirby as he put up just a 5.4% SwStr% but managed to strike out seven Astros over four innings, waking one and giving up two runs on three hits. They’re being really, really careful with his pitch counts and innings here clearly, and there are questions about where he’ll line up now that Luis Castillo has joined the team. I don’t think Kirby is going to be a great fantasy contributor this season regardless, since apparently, he’ll have to be incredibly efficient just to throw five innings. And the M’s website has him out of the rotation right now, so you can probably drop in redraft leagues now to get ahead of it.
Alec Bohm is doing it again, slashing .444/.455/.651 with three homers over his last 66 plate appearances. He has just a 12% K% in that time with a 3% BB% and an 88% contact rate. He’s swinging a bunch and making some good contact, but it’s hard to believe we’ll ever get consistent production from that guy. He’s a good guy to start/stream right now if you’re inclined to believe in the “hot” thing.
Hunter Renfroe also had another nice game and closed July out with a .276/.323/.638 slash line with six homers and a 14.3% Brl% in his 62 July PA’s. He did this last year too where he really turned it on in the second half, so maybe he’s doing it again?
PA/HR Leaders - July 2022
Judge 8.6
Carpenter 9.4
Riley 10.1
Renfroe 10.3
Schwarber 10.6
Chapman 10.7
Alvarez 11.0
Seager 12.0
Olson 12.3
Ruf 12.8
JA Algorithm Top Hitters - July 2022
Riley
Freeman
Alvarez
Judge
Realmuto
Soto
LeMahieu
Seager
Carpenter
Chapman
JA Algorithm Top Pitchers - July 2022
Ohtani
Strider
Javier
McClanahan
Rodon
Burnes
Lodolo
Snell
Woodruff
Scherzer
Alright here’s the report:
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Reid Detmers (LAA): 22.9 SwStr%, 36.2 CSW%
2. Jordan Montgomery (NYY): 20.3 SwStr%, 35.4 CSW%
3. Aaron Ashby (MIL): 17.6 SwStr%, 35.2 CSW%
4. Aaron Nola (PHI): 15.1 SwStr%, 34.4 CSW%
5. Andre Pallante (STL): 12.5 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
6. Adrian Sampson (CHC): 11.1 SwStr%, 31.9 CSW%
7. Jake Odorizzi (HOU): 16.0 SwStr%, 31.9 CSW%
8. Jose Berrios (TOR): 10.0 SwStr%, 30.0 CSW%
9. Kirk McCarty (CLE): 17.5 SwStr%, 29.8 CSW%
10. Adam Oller (OAK): 16.3 SwStr%, 29.6 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Reid Detmers - 6.67 IP - 91.25 JA Points
2. Carlos Rodon - 7.0 IP - 74.25 JA Points
3. Jake Odorizzi - 7.0 IP - 70.5 JA Points
4. Andre Pallante - 8.0 IP - 65.25 JA Points
5. Merrill Kelly - 7.0 IP - 60.0 JA Points
6. Jordan Montgomery - 4.0 IP - 59.5 JA Points
7. Dylan Cease - 6.0 IP - 57.25 JA Points
8. Nick Lodolo - 6.0 IP - 56.0 JA Points
9. Aaron Nola - 6.0 IP - 53.25 JA Points
10. Tony Gonsolin - 5.0 IP - 53.0 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 11 GS - 55.25 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 20 GS - 54.82 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 20 GS - 54.15 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 17 GS - 54.11 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 21 GS - 52.1 JA Points
6. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 15 GS - 50.26 JA Points
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 21 GS - 48.61 JA Points
8. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 21 GS - 48.05 JA Points
9. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 13 GS - 47.75 JA Points
10. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 14 GS - 45.7 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Sean Manaea's CH velo (32 pitches) UP 4.0mph to 88.2
Reid Detmers's SL velo (28 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 86.4
Zack Greinke's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 74.0
Dane Dunning's CH velo (12 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 85.7
Kirk McCarty's SL velo (20 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 87.9
German Marquez's SL velo (18 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 88.9
Pablo Lopez's FF velo (31 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 94.6
Jordan Montgomery's CU velo (26 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 81.6
JT Brubaker's CU velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 78.8
Shane McClanahan's FF velo (37 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 95.2
JT Brubaker's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 85.2
Adam Oller's SL velo (25 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 80.7
George Kirby's SL velo (14 pitches) DOWN -3.8mph to 84.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adam Oller's FF usage (49.0%) up 28.4 points
Dane Dunning's SI usage (51.2%) up 11.1 points
Dylan Cease's SL usage (62.8%) up 19.7 points
George Kirby's SI usage (31.1%) up 30.4 points
German Marquez's CU usage (31.1%) up 10.7 points
JT Brubaker's CU usage (26.9%) up 12.3 points
Jordan Montgomery's SI usage (51.9%) up 10.6 points
Jordan Montgomery's CU usage (32.9%) up 10.2 points
Kirk McCarty's SL usage (35.1%) up 12.3 points
Merrill Kelly's SI usage (34.1%) up 19.7 points
Nick Lodolo's CH usage (25.5%) up 10.4 points
Pablo Lopez's CU usage (18.3%) up 12.2 points
Sean Manaea's CH usage (38.6%) up 16.2 points
Taijuan Walker's FF usage (39.6%) up 10.5 points
Zack Greinke's FC usage (25.6%) up 13.2 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 75 TBF, 38.0% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 85 TBF, 37.3% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 68 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Max Scherzer - 105 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Aaron Ashby - 79 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Brady Singer - 73 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 108 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 67 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Jon Gray - 73 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 75 TBF, 45.3% K%
Brady Singer - 73 TBF, 38.4% K%
Braxton Garrett - 68 TBF, 38.2% K%
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 37.3% K%
Carlos Rodon - 95 TBF, 35.8% K%
Yu Darvish - 82 TBF, 35.4% K%
Corbin Burnes - 74 TBF, 35.1% K%
Reid Detmers - 69 TBF, 34.8% K%
Sandy Alcantara - 78 TBF, 34.6% K%
Jose Berrios - 100 TBF, 33.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 75 TBF, 41.3% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 34.3% K-BB%
Braxton Garrett - 68 TBF, 32.4% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 82 TBF, 30.5% K-BB%
Jose Berrios - 100 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 105 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 74 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 95 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Brady Singer - 73 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 84 TBF, 69.1% GB%
Logan Webb - 99 TBF, 62.9% GB%
Andre Pallante - 68 TBF, 61.7% GB%
Justin Steele - 67 TBF, 60.4% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 67 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 70 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Alex Cobb - 103 TBF, 59.4% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 77 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Brad Keller - 72 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Shane Bieber - 85 TBF, 54.8% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
None
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Gerrit Cole - +2.7% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Jose Berrios - +3.2% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Shane Bieber - +2.9% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Kyle Wright - +2.4% CSW%, -5.4 BB%
Shohei Ohtani - +6.2% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Merrill Kelly - +2.6% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Mitch Keller - +3.8% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Jake Odorizzi - +3.3% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Lance Lynn - +2.7% CSW%, -5.0 BB%
Andre Pallante - +2.5% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +6.0% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Dean Kremer - +2.7% CSW%, -6.2 BB%
Ranger Suarez - +2.8% CSW%, -4.9 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.3% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Alec Bohm (PHI) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Carlos Correa (MIN) 3 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Charles Leblanc (MIA) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Eloy Jimenez (CWS) 3 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Hunter Renfroe - 4.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
2. Shohei Ohtani - 4.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
3. Jurickson Profar - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
4. Eloy Jimenez - 3.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
5. Anthony Rizzo - 5.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
6. J.D. Martinez - 4.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
7. Jose Abreu - 4.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
8. Alec Bohm - 5.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
9. James Outman - 4.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
10. Brandon Drury - 2.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 353.0 PA - 158.98 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 435.0 PA - 137.93 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (WSH) - 428.0 PA - 124.02 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 447.0 PA - 119.19 JA Points
5. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 337.0 PA - 114.3 JA Points
6. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 431.0 PA - 106.17 JA Points
7. D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) - 404.0 PA - 105.64 JA Points
8. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
9. Will Smith (LAD) - 361.0 PA - 100.94 JA Points
10. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 417.0 PA - 99.95 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 114.0mph - nan
Salvador Perez (KC) - 112.2mph - home_run
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 111.9mph - single
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 111.6mph - home_run
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 110.7mph - field_out
Eloy Jimenez (CWS) - 109.8mph - home_run
Alec Bohm (PHI) - 109.6mph - double
James Outman (LAD) - 109.5mph - single
Javier Baez (DET) - 109.5mph - nan
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 109.5mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 41 BIP, 15 Brls, 36.6 Brl%
Austin Riley - 66 PA, 50 BIP, 17 Brls, 34.0 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 60 PA, 32 BIP, 8 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Bobby Dalbec - 54 PA, 29 BIP, 7 Brls, 24.1 Brl%
Ramon Laureano - 71 PA, 43 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 50 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Matt Olson - 66 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 47 PA, 25 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Luke Voit - 63 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 69 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 0.582 xwOBA
Austin Riley - 66 PA, 0.544 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 69 PA, 0.5 xwOBA
J.T. Realmuto - 50 PA, 0.493 xwOBA
D.J. LeMahieu - 77 PA, 0.438 xwOBA
Alec Bohm - 52 PA, 0.431 xwOBA
Matt Chapman - 60 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Aledmys Diaz - 51 PA, 0.416 xwOBA
Josh Bell - 65 PA, 0.41 xwOBA
Harold Castro - 57 PA, 0.406 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Bryson Stott - 58 PA, 104 Swings, 93.3 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 85 PA, 136 Swings, 92.6 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 61 PA, 101 Swings, 92.1 Cont%
Alec Bohm - 52 PA, 96 Swings, 91.7 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 59 PA, 102 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 78 PA, 134 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 52 PA, 92 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Myles Straw - 64 PA, 100 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 63 PA, 113 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Rafael Ortega - 43 PA, 96 Swings, 87.5 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Austin Riley - 66 PA, 19.7 K%, 34.0 Brl%
Carlos Correa - 54 PA, 14.8 K%, 14.0 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 50 PA, 12.0 K%, 21.6 Brl%
Jorge Polanco - 55 PA, 16.4 K%, 15.2 Brl%
Ketel Marte - 62 PA, 14.5 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 58 PA, 19.0 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Jonathan India - +7.4% Contact%, +4.4 mph exit velo, -10.2 Chase%
Jurickson Profar - +3.6% Contact%, +3.9 mph exit velo, -5.0 Chase%
Harold Castro - +6.2% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -10.1 Chase%
Teoscar Hernandez - +5.8% Contact%, +3.1 mph exit velo, -14.5 Chase%
Lars Nootbaar - +10.1% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -5.3 Chase%
A.J. Pollock - +5.7% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -10.7 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Anthony Rizzo - 0.379 xwOBA, 12.1% Brl%, 83.8% Contact%, 21.0% Chase%, 6.7% K%
Josh Bell - 0.402 xwOBA, 10.7% Brl%, 78.5% Contact%, 15.3% Chase%, 16.7% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 0.382 xwOBA, 10.3% Brl%, 79.3% Contact%, 23.1% Chase%, 14.6% K%
Yordan Alvarez - 0.51 xwOBA, 33.3% Brl%, 81.6% Contact%, 15.2% Chase%, 22.0% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Ryan Mountcastle - 33.7% Whiff%, 83.3% Weak%, 0.931 Cold Rating
Franmil Reyes - 34.3% Whiff%, 78.6% Weak%, 0.926 Cold Rating
Ezequiel Duran - 34.1% Whiff%, 76.9% Weak%, 0.909 Cold Rating
Trey Mancini - 35.2% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.88 Cold Rating
Nick Castellanos - 35.0% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.876 Cold Rating
Josh Donaldson - 33.3% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.867 Cold Rating
Hunter Dozier - 30.4% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.859 Cold Rating
Eugenio Suarez - 40.0% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.839 Cold Rating
Willson Contreras - 34.8% Whiff%, 68.2% Weak%, 0.837 Cold Rating
Ian Happ - 34.4% Whiff%, 67.9% Weak%, 0.828 Cold Rating
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