MLB Daily Notes: Monday, August 29
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
We had some NCAAF football games, which allowed me to spin up the NCAAF Dashboard. Paid members have access to that, link below the Paywall.
Right now, it’s pretty mundane, here’s a quick look:
I will improve that as time goes on and we get some more and better data, but it’s definitely far from my top priority so it might move slowly and might not be the best thing I bring to you. But check that out if you’re into NCAA football.
My new writer pushed out a few more NFL Best Ball & DFS articles, so you have those in your inbox. He’s pretty excited to get his stuff out there - and I hope it’s helpful. Any feedback is appreciated.
Roansy Contreras did the damn thing against the Phillies, throwing five scoreless innings with seven strikeouts. He walked two as well but the 19.1% SwStr% is really encouraging. He went 41 four-seamers, 40 sliders, and 8 curveballs. The slider is really good and was really good yesterday with a 42.5% CSW%.
Roansy in the Majors: 12 GS, 3.69 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 22.3% K%, 10.6% BB%
Roansy in the minors: 9 GS, 3.23 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 32.6% K%, 9.2% BB%
I think he’ll be a pretty interesting guy to draft late next season because he really does have a ton of talent. His four-seamer and slider are both already above-average pitches for him, so if he can just lower the walk rate and maybe even improve that curveball there should be some good times ahead.
Another guy with a bright future is Nick Lodolo, who had another big CSW% rate of 34.6%. He has a crazy high 43% CSW% over his lat 100 batters faced. For the year that mark is 30.5%, pretty solid. His 13.4% SwStr% is also strong, but the 9.7% BB% is holding him back. It’s pretty interesting that he’s above 30% CSW% and above a 9% BB%. There aren’t a ton of pitchers in the league with a CSW% above 30% and a walker ate above 9%, typically as the CSW% goes up the walk rate goes down. Here’s the breakdown:
I really am intrigued by sinkerball pitchers that turn in a lot of strikeouts. That’s tough to do, and it typically signals a really good pitcher.
I looked at all of the league’s sinkerball pitchers (pitchers whose primary pitch is the sinker), and ranked them by their K%, restricted to only guys who have made 10 starts.
Highest K% for Sinkerball Pitchers
Steven Matz 27.4%
Nick Lodolo 27.3%
Aaron Ashby 27.1%
Brady Singer 25.6%
Alex Cobb 24.5%
Sean Manaea 23.8%
Alex Wood 23.6%
JT Brubaker 23.4%
Chris Bassitt 22.8%
Framber Valdez 22.4%
You can see that you don’t get many high strikeout rates from these types of pitchers. The sinker, it turns out, is the easiest pitch to make contact with, and that lends itself to what we see above. Matz leading the league in K% here probably has more to do with the limited sample. In his limited time in the Majors, Lodolo has been able to put up a really nice strikeout rate while featuring that sinker - and that’s a really good thing to see.
The other guy I want to highlight is Clarke Schmidt. The results yesterday weren’t good as he gave up eight hits and four runs to the Athletics, but he struck out seven and only walked one in that time. He put up an elite 33.1%:6.5% K-BB% ratio in AAA, but in his 34.3 Major League innings, he has a 22.9%-12.1% ratio. It was an encouraging step to see that 7:1 yesterday, although it was against a bad lineup.
I’ve been a bit interested in him because we saw him be somewhat effective out of the bullpen at the beginning of the year, and then go to AAA and pitch really well as a starter. I suppose we shouldn’t be picking him up right now because of the walk issues in the Majors, but he’s someone to watch - and maybe a nice DFS punt this week if he makes another start.
On the hitting side, we have to highlight Corbin Carroll’s call-up. He should debut for the snakes tonight. He’s been one of the best htiters in the minor leagues at any level this season, and he’s a very highly-touted prospect. If he’s available in your league, you should add him to see what happens.
It’s also eye-popping that Brian Anderson has a 20.7% Brl% over the last three weeks. Check that out and much more in the automated report below!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Roansy Contreras (PIT): 19.1 SwStr%, 36.0 CSW%
2. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 15.4 SwStr%, 34.6 CSW%
3. Max Scherzer (NYM): 16.1 SwStr%, 33.9 CSW%
4. Justin Verlander (HOU): 13.3 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
5. Sean Manaea (SD): 19.0 SwStr%, 32.9 CSW%
6. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 10.8 SwStr%, 32.5 CSW%
7. Dylan Cease (CWS): 12.6 SwStr%, 32.0 CSW%
8. Julio Urias (LAD): 16.8 SwStr%, 31.7 CSW%
9. Ross Stripling (TOR): 19.5 SwStr%, 31.2 CSW%
10. Adrian Martinez (OAK): 14.0 SwStr%, 31.2 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Max Scherzer - 7.0 IP - 90.25 JA Points
2. Dylan Cease - 8.0 IP - 65.75 JA Points
3. Robbie Ray - 6.67 IP - 61.75 JA Points
4. Roansy Contreras - 5.0 IP - 60.5 JA Points
5. Ross Stripling - 6.0 IP - 53.25 JA Points
6. Julio Urias - 6.0 IP - 51.25 JA Points
7. Adrian Martinez - 5.33 IP - 46.0 JA Points
8. Nick Lodolo - 6.67 IP - 46.0 JA Points
9. German Marquez - 7.0 IP - 43.25 JA Points
10. Clarke Schmidt - 3.67 IP - 38.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 16.0 GS - 55.78 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 25.0 GS - 52.25 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 24.0 GS - 51.93 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 22.0 GS - 50.86 JA Points
5. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 25.0 GS - 49.46 JA Points
6. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 26.0 GS - 49.14 JA Points
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 26.0 GS - 48.61 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 19.0 GS - 47.14 JA Points
9. Blake Snell (SD) - 17.0 GS - 46.3 JA Points
10. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 20.0 GS - 45.24 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Brock Burke's SL velo (12 pitches) UP 3.1mph to 89.7
Noah Syndergaard's CU velo (10 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 78.4
Noah Syndergaard's SL velo (27 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 86.4
Luke Farrell's FF velo (26 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 91.8
Jonathan Heasley's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 85.2
Roansy Contreras's FF velo (41 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 94.3
Sean Manaea's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 79.6
Roansy Contreras's SL velo (40 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 82.9
Eric Lauer's FC velo (19 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 88.4
Eric Lauer's SL velo (16 pitches) DOWN -4.0mph to 83.6
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Civale's FC usage (42.7%) up 10.1 points
Aaron Sanchez's CU usage (39.5%) up 12.6 points
Adam Wainwright's CU usage (40.0%) up 10.5 points
Austin Voth's SL usage (20.2%) up 19.4 points
Corey Kluber's FC usage (47.1%) up 14.0 points
Devin Smeltzer's CU usage (37.3%) up 13.0 points
Edward Cabrera's CU usage (38.2%) up 22.9 points
German Marquez's SI usage (38.2%) up 15.3 points
Jake Odorizzi's FF usage (73.3%) up 22.1 points
Jakob Junis's SI usage (43.2%) up 12.4 points
Justin Verlander's FF usage (65.0%) up 14.4 points
Kohei Arihara's CH usage (32.9%) up 10.9 points
Luke Farrell's SL usage (42.6%) up 10.2 points
Patrick Corbin's SI usage (54.9%) up 14.9 points
Roansy Contreras's SL usage (44.9%) up 14.2 points
Tucker Davidson's SI usage (15.5%) up 12.0 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Nick Lodolo - 100 TBF, 43.0% CSW%
Drew Smyly - 92 TBF, 42.1% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 86 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
JT Brubaker - 72 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 73 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Matt Manning - 74 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 82 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Ross Stripling - 70 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Jakob Junis - 89 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Carlos Rodon - 73 TBF, 38.4% K%
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 35.4% K%
Drew Rasmussen - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
Zac Gallen - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Blake Snell - 88 TBF, 33.0% K%
Aaron Nola - 86 TBF, 32.6% K%
Justin Steele - 90 TBF, 32.2% K%
Justin Verlander - 84 TBF, 32.1% K%
Robbie Ray - 98 TBF, 31.6% K%
Julio Urias - 91 TBF, 30.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Carlos Rodon - 73 TBF, 35.6% K-BB%
Drew Rasmussen - 70 TBF, 31.4% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 86 TBF, 30.2% K-BB%
Justin Verlander - 84 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 88 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 94 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Ross Stripling - 70 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 103 TBF, 25.2% K-BB%
George Kirby - 76 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 82 TBF, 70.6% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 76 TBF, 68.1% GB%
Logan Webb - 76 TBF, 66.0% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 98 TBF, 65.8% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 70 TBF, 65.2% GB%
Shane Bieber - 106 TBF, 60.0% GB%
JT Brubaker - 72 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Alex Cobb - 95 TBF, 59.1% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 77 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Zac Gallen - 94 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 35.4 K%, 7.3 BB%, 46.3% GB%
David Peterson - 46 TBF, 28.3 K%, 4.3 BB%, 45.2% GB%
George Kirby - 76 TBF, 27.6 K%, 2.6 BB%, 53.8% GB%
JT Brubaker - 72 TBF, 29.2 K%, 4.2 BB%, 59.6% GB%
Jeffrey Springs - 89 TBF, 30.3 K%, 7.9 BB%, 50.9% GB%
Jordan Montgomery - 97 TBF, 27.8 K%, 3.1 BB%, 48.5% GB%
Justin Steele - 90 TBF, 32.2 K%, 7.8 BB%, 53.7% GB%
Justin Verlander - 84 TBF, 32.1 K%, 3.6 BB%, 46.3% GB%
Kyle Wright - 72 TBF, 27.8 K%, 4.2 BB%, 55.1% GB%
Luis Castillo - 103 TBF, 30.1 K%, 4.9 BB%, 49.2% GB%
Ross Stripling - 70 TBF, 27.1 K%, 1.4 BB%, 54.0% GB%
Ryan Yarbrough - 70 TBF, 27.1 K%, 5.7 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Shawn Armstrong - 49 TBF, 32.7 K%, 6.1 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Zac Gallen - 94 TBF, 34.0 K%, 6.4 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Dean Kremer - +4.1% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Lance Lynn - +2.4% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Jakob Junis - +2.5% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Aaron Nola - +3.5% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Matt Manning - +7.9% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Carlos Rodon - +2.7% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
JT Brubaker - +4.8% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Zac Gallen - +3.6% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Ross Stripling - +4.7% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Michael Wacha - +4.0% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Rich Hill - +2.7% CSW%, -4.9 BB%
Andrew Heaney - +4.8% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Chase De Jong - +4.8% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Max Fried - +3.3% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Corey Seager (TEX) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Jeimer Candelario (DET) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Luke Voit (WSH) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Manny Machado (SD) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Stuart Fairchild (CIN) 2 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Yandy Diaz (TB) 6 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Manny Machado - 5.0 PA - 79.0 JA Points
2. Isaac Paredes - 5.0 PA - 78.0 JA Points
3. Jeimer Candelario - 5.0 PA - 68.0 JA Points
4. Corey Seager - 5.0 PA - 67.0 JA Points
5. Kolten Wong - 5.0 PA - 61.0 JA Points
6. Rowdy Tellez - 5.0 PA - 59.0 JA Points
7. Alex Bregman - 4.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
8. Nico Hoerner - 5.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
9. Mookie Betts - 5.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
10. Shohei Ohtani - 5.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Juan Soto (SD) - 522.0 PA - 137.7 JA Points
2. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 445.0 PA - 135.46 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 538.0 PA - 134.05 JA Points
4. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 528.0 PA - 114.32 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 556.0 PA - 113.53 JA Points
6. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 427.0 PA - 107.07 JA Points
7. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 475.0 PA - 99.71 JA Points
8. Alex Bregman (HOU) - 524.0 PA - 99.01 JA Points
9. Will Smith (LAD) - 450.0 PA - 96.18 JA Points
10. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 518.0 PA - 91.58 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 114.4mph - grounded_into_double_play
Ian Happ (CHC) - 113.9mph - double
Franchy Cordero (BOS) - 112.3mph - home_run
Tommy Edman (STL) - 112.1mph - home_run
Trayce Thompson (LAD) - 111.9mph - home_run
Austin Riley (ATL) - 111.6mph - single
Bobby Dalbec (BOS) - 110.8mph - single
Willy Adames (MIL) - 110.7mph - nan
Jonathan India (CIN) - 110.6mph - single
Christian Walker (ARI) - 110.6mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Nick Pratto - 57 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Albert Pujols - 48 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Brian Anderson - 54 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 70 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Evan Longoria - 50 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Luke Voit - 62 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Michael Massey - 65 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Matt Olson - 84 PA, 68 BIP, 13 Brls, 19.1 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 63 PA, 37 BIP, 7 Brls, 18.9 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 71 PA, 32 BIP, 6 Brls, 18.8 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Albert Pujols - 48 PA, 0.514 xwOBA
Vinnie Pasquantino - 54 PA, 0.457 xwOBA
Matt Olson - 84 PA, 0.455 xwOBA
Nathaniel Lowe - 82 PA, 0.44 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 69 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
Alex Bregman - 80 PA, 0.433 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 80 PA, 0.429 xwOBA
Rowdy Tellez - 66 PA, 0.428 xwOBA
Yandy Diaz - 78 PA, 0.413 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 84 PA, 0.407 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 71 PA, 119 Swings, 95.8 Cont%
Nick Madrigal - 70 PA, 121 Swings, 95.0 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 64 PA, 121 Swings, 90.9 Cont%
Brendan Donovan - 51 PA, 77 Swings, 90.9 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 65 PA, 109 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Isaac Paredes - 54 PA, 95 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 82 PA, 122 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 61 PA, 101 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 84 PA, 143 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 74 PA, 126 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Albert Pujols - 48 PA, 16.7 K%, 21.6 Brl%
Emmanuel Rivera - 66 PA, 18.2 K%, 15.9 Brl%
Juan Soto - 69 PA, 17.4 K%, 16.3 Brl%
Lars Nootbaar - 85 PA, 14.1 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Matt Olson - 84 PA, 11.9 K%, 19.1 Brl%
Nathaniel Lowe - 82 PA, 18.3 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 86 PA, 19.8 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 54 PA, 7.4 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 82 PA, 12.2 K%, 15.9 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Carlos Correa - +10.9% Contact%, +4.3 mph exit velo, -4.3 Chase%
Bobby Witt Jr. - +7.4% Contact%, +3.0 mph exit velo, -5.6 Chase%
Seiya Suzuki - +9.9% Contact%, +6.4 mph exit velo, -5.5 Chase%
Matt Olson - +17.7% Contact%, +6.5 mph exit velo, -4.4 Chase%
Nathaniel Lowe - +13.7% Contact%, +9.3 mph exit velo, -7.0 Chase%
Christian Yelich - +8.9% Contact%, +5.3 mph exit velo, -4.3 Chase%
Jonathan India - +15.0% Contact%, +5.2 mph exit velo, -4.2 Chase%
Michael Harris II - +4.1% Contact%, +4.7 mph exit velo, -13.6 Chase%
Nick Madrigal - +6.7% Contact%, +4.2 mph exit velo, -10.8 Chase%
Isaac Paredes - +3.6% Contact%, +5.2 mph exit velo, -8.7 Chase%
Josh Bell - +8.9% Contact%, +5.2 mph exit velo, -10.8 Chase%
Kolten Wong - +3.2% Contact%, +6.2 mph exit velo, -11.9 Chase%
Jeimer Candelario - +3.5% Contact%, +4.2 mph exit velo, -9.4 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Corey Seager - 0.417 xwOBA, 12.5% Brl%, 79.8% Contact%, 22.8% Chase%, 11.5% K%
Jake Fraley - 0.375 xwOBA, 13.5% Brl%, 81.3% Contact%, 19.8% Chase%, 20.4% K%
Lars Nootbaar - 0.382 xwOBA, 14.6% Brl%, 76.9% Contact%, 23.9% Chase%, 15.4% K%
Matt Olson - 0.459 xwOBA, 18.0% Brl%, 82.4% Contact%, 21.1% Chase%, 11.3% K%
Paul Goldschmidt - 0.395 xwOBA, 14.3% Brl%, 76.5% Contact%, 24.0% Chase%, 18.8% K%
Tyler O'Neill - 0.385 xwOBA, 14.3% Brl%, 76.1% Contact%, 16.7% Chase%, 13.8% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Paul DeJong - 44.9% Whiff%, 76.5% Weak%, 0.969 Cold Rating
Jeremy Pena - 42.7% Whiff%, 76.7% Weak%, 0.969 Cold Rating
Michael A. Taylor - 36.4% Whiff%, 76.9% Weak%, 0.946 Cold Rating
P.J. Higgins - 37.3% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.921 Cold Rating
Aristides Aquino - 41.1% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.896 Cold Rating
Jose Barrero - 35.8% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.89 Cold Rating
Jon Berti - 34.8% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.864 Cold Rating
Emmanuel Rivera - 32.9% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.863 Cold Rating
Amed Rosario - 28.6% Whiff%, 83.3% Weak%, 0.855 Cold Rating
Seth Brown - 33.0% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.846 Cold Rating
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