MLB Daily Notes: Monday, July 11
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
Happy Monday morning everybody! Lots to talk about today!
Glitch in the matrix yesterday when we look at whiff counts
Odorizzi 15
Plesac 14
Anderson 14
Wood 14
Espino 13
Voth 13
I mean these aren’t super high tallies, but those are names you would never expect to be at the top of the whiffs board on a given day.
Espino with a 20% SwStr% out of nowhere. Voth, Wood, Plesac, and Odorizzi all over 16% - just weird stuff.
MacKenzie Gore got absolutely demolished, giving up eight earned runs in 3.3 innings. He had just eight whiffs on 83 pitches (9.6% SwStr%) and gave up four barrels (25% Brl%). Over his last five starts, he has a 12% K% and a 14.8% BB% - I think you missed your chance to sell him. Shout out to me on that one though I did tell people to get rid of Gore several weeks ago, so I’m not always wrong here. But I’ve gotta be right at least like 70% of the time to be taken seriously. I hope nobody is tracking my success rate there… I think it’s above 50% but I know we’re not near 90% or anything like that. Gore stinks though, I think you can drop him in redraft leagues.
I’ve also been down on Michael Kopech, who had just a 9.8% SwStr% himself yesterday. For the year he has a 28.3% CSW%, a 10.6% SwStr%, a 22.6% K%, and an 11.9% BB%. I think homey needs to add a third pitch to the ole repertoire.
I’d be looking to move Kopech if you can get something for him.
Carlos Santana has three homers in two days since these very notes marked him as a super mega hot hitter, so that’s a feather in the cap of the “hot is real” crowd.
He remains super ultra mega hot, and joins these other five names on the list
George Springer (also homered yesterday)
Justin Turner
Kris Bryant
Marcell Ozuna
Vinnie Pasquantino
Wait what, VINNIE PASQUANTINO? But that guy is hitting .150 and slugging .250?
The man’s barrel rate is 11.8%, his contact rate is 91% (wtf!), and his xwOBA is .386 for the year (.396 if you’re checking savant)
It’s 40 plate appearances but I am STUNNED by his 91% contact rate - STUNNED.
Terrified, mortified, petrified, stupefied, by you - Vinnie P.
That’s the second-best contact rate in the league behind Luis Arraez. Contact rate is one that solidifies pretty quickly too, so we can believe that this guy is a very good contact hitter already. I’m not saying he’s going to stick near 90%, but I don’t know - a contact rate above 80% feels pretty darn likely and the guy hits the ball HARD.
I offered Christian Walker for him this morning but got denied by my league mate who is very in tune with the metrics (thanks to me, probably!). I would go be very aggressive in trying to acquire Pasquantino right now.
Matt Carpenter is the JA model’s fourth-best hitter since June 12th, hitting .386/.451/.864 with six homers on a 12.5% Brl% and a decent 25.5% K%. The 77% contact rate is league-average and his .372 xwOBA is strong as well. He has 2B eligibility on ESPN, so he’s probably someone that should be added if you’re looking for some pop.
The Padres are in Coors for four games here, so it’s a good time to add a Padre hitter or two since it’s a pretty light schedule this week.
An interesting development: Manny Machado has been deemed COLD by my calculations. You’ll see that below. Manny sprained his ankle in June and missed some time, returning on June 30th. Since then he’s hit .156/.270/.406 with two homers and a great 25% barrel rate, however he has a putrid 57% contact rate with a 43% strikeout rate and a .312 xwOBA.
The 25% barrel rate isn’t all that impressive given he’s only put 16 balls in play in this sample, and the fact that he has whiffed 35 times in his 82 swings is a cause for concern. You wouldn’t inherently think that an ankle injury would have as big of an effect on your swing as a shoulder or something like that, but shit I’m a tennis player so what do I know. I suppose if you can’t push off the ground with the same force and confidence then the swing that follows will be seriously hampered.
Obviously, you’re starting Machado this week, but do we fade him for DFS purposes? You can’t get the Coors benefit if you’re not putting the bat on the ball. An interesting thing to watch over the next four days!
In similar news, Jose Ramirez had a good weekend with a homer, an 84% contact rate, and a 10% barrel rate on his .417 batting average. That’s a good sign since he was someone who had really struggled for a couple of weeks following an injury. Probably need to see that J-Ram production for a few more days to really put that behind us, but it’s good news for now (and I play against Ramirez in my home league this week… shit… - what up Clint!!!!).
Added a tab on the Tableau that shows hitter stats against each pitch type. You could do that in other tabs already, but this lays it all out at once:
So you can check that out if it interests you. There’s just so, so much stuff on that Tableau now - I mean you could spend all day in there.
I will be designing a Tableau for NFL season and putting together tons of Google Sheets reports and a weekly notes thing, and 100% of it will be for paid subscribers only. So if you’ve been on the fence about becoming a paid member, and you play fantasy football - there’s more reason for you to just take the plunge. The NFL product will not be as good as the MLB one just because NFL data is much more limited than MLB and I’m just not quite a football expert, but I think it will be well worth the $5/month for fantasy football players.
I think I’m going to put out a survey soon for people to help me out with - you can tell me what you would want from an NFL version of these notes, and then I’ll incorporate anything I can.
Also, if you know a little bit of Python and Google Sheets and you’re good with football data - reach out to me, maybe we can partner up to attack it and I’ll share some of the profits.
Unfortunately, we had to push back the Derek Carty podcast at least a couple of days, so that won’t be with us tomorrow as originally planned, but it will come soon. Here we go with the notes!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tayler Scott (SD): 18.5 SwStr%, 37.0 CSW%
2. Alex Wood (SF): 16.9 SwStr%, 36.1 CSW%
3. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 13.3 SwStr%, 34.4 CSW%
4. Michael Kopech (CWS): 9.8 SwStr%, 32.9 CSW%
5. Paolo Espino (WSH): 20.0 SwStr%, 32.3 CSW%
6. Eric Lauer (MIL): 7.8 SwStr%, 31.4 CSW%
7. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 9.1 SwStr%, 31.3 CSW%
8. Zach Plesac (CLE): 16.5 SwStr%, 30.6 CSW%
9. Taijuan Walker (NYM): 11.1 SwStr%, 29.3 CSW%
10. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 10.7 SwStr%, 29.1 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Alex Wood - 7.0 IP - 62.0 JA Points
2. Taijuan Walker - 7.0 IP - 59.75 JA Points
3. Jake Odorizzi - 6.67 IP - 50.5 JA Points
4. Zack Greinke - 5.0 IP - 47.25 JA Points
5. Zach Plesac - 4.67 IP - 46.0 JA Points
6. Austin Voth - 5.0 IP - 42.75 JA Points
7. Logan Gilbert - 6.0 IP - 42.5 JA Points
8. Dauri Moreta - 2.0 IP - 39.0 JA Points
9. Nick Nelson - 2.0 IP - 38.5 JA Points
10. Nick Lodolo - 4.67 IP - 38.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 8 GS - 57.26 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 17 GS - 54.88 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 17 GS - 54.82 JA Points
4. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 17 GS - 52.91 JA Points
5. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 12 GS - 51.87 JA Points
6. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 14 GS - 50.41 JA Points
7. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 9 GS - 49.92 JA Points
8. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 17 GS - 46.94 JA Points
9. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 17 GS - 45.81 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 12 GS - 45.29 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Anderson Espinoza's SL velo (14 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 81.6
Drew Smyly's FC velo (17 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 89.9
Andre Pallante's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 88.4
Jose Suarez's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 76.3
Cole Irvin's CU velo (23 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 75.4
Michael Kopech's FF velo (40 pitches) DOWN -2.9mph to 92.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Andre Pallante's SI usage (19.0%) up 12.9 points
Austin Pruitt's FF usage (42.0%) up 12.1 points
Cole Irvin's FF usage (43.2%) up 11.3 points
Cole Irvin's CU usage (28.4%) up 10.5 points
Eric Lauer's FF usage (55.9%) up 13.7 points
Jameson Taillon's FF usage (56.0%) up 24.2 points
Michael Kopech's SL usage (41.5%) up 18.6 points
Sandy Alcantara's SI usage (35.5%) up 11.6 points
Taijuan Walker's SI usage (20.2%) up 11.4 points
Tayler Scott's SI usage (42.6%) up 14.0 points
Tyler Gilbert's FF usage (32.1%) up 16.1 points
Zack Greinke's FF usage (47.7%) up 12.3 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 39.9% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 94 TBF, 38.4% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 93 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 85 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Mark Leiter Jr. - 74 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Blake Snell - 72 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 76 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 100 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 44.7% K%
Spencer Strider - 85 TBF, 40.0% K%
Dylan Cease - 93 TBF, 38.7% K%
Shane McClanahan - 94 TBF, 38.3% K%
Blake Snell - 72 TBF, 37.5% K%
David Peterson - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Josiah Gray - 78 TBF, 33.3% K%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 33.3% K%
Robbie Ray - 96 TBF, 33.3% K%
Charlie Morton - 100 TBF, 33.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 38.2% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 85 TBF, 35.3% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 94 TBF, 34.0% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 93 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Josiah Gray - 78 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
David Peterson - 91 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Patrick Sandoval - 76 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 100 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 109 TBF, 67.6% GB%
Andre Pallante - 99 TBF, 64.2% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 115 TBF, 63.7% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 100 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 94 TBF, 59.3% GB%
Mitch Keller - 69 TBF, 57.4% GB%
David Peterson - 91 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Dallas Keuchel - 73 TBF, 54.7% GB%
Justin Steele - 75 TBF, 54.5% GB%
Logan Webb - 105 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Clayton Kershaw - 103 TBF, 28.2 K%, 5.8 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Collin McHugh - 52 TBF, 30.8 K%, 1.9 BB%, 48.5% GB%
David Peterson - 91 TBF, 35.2 K%, 7.7 BB%, 56.0% GB%
Luis Castillo - 104 TBF, 29.8 K%, 7.7 BB%, 53.2% GB%
Mark Leiter Jr. - 74 TBF, 27.0 K%, 5.4 BB%, 47.9% GB%
Max Castillo - 54 TBF, 31.5 K%, 5.6 BB%, 55.9% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 94 TBF, 38.3 K%, 4.3 BB%, 59.3% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Carlos Rodon - +3.6% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Josiah Gray - +3.0% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Patrick Sandoval - +2.0% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Shane McClanahan - +3.8% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.3% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Cristian Javier - +6.0% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Brandon Woodruff - +7.6% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Bryse Wilson - +5.1% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Noah Syndergaard - +3.6% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Freddie Freeman (LAD) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Max Muncy (LAD) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Mike Yastrzemski (SF) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Wilmer Flores (SF) 6 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Freddie Freeman - 5.0 PA - 73.0 JA Points
2. Wilmer Flores - 6.0 PA - 69.0 JA Points
3. Ke'Bryan Hayes - 5.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
4. Matt Carpenter - 4.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
5. David Bote - 4.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
6. Connor Joe - 4.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
7. P.J. Higgins - 4.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
8. Albert Pujols - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
9. Gavin Sheets - 3.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
10. Ketel Marte - 4.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 312.0 PA - 148.85 JA Points
2. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 280.0 PA - 130.0 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (WSH) - 364.0 PA - 119.34 JA Points
4. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 359.0 PA - 117.55 JA Points
5. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 323.0 PA - 110.71 JA Points
6. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 359.0 PA - 110.42 JA Points
7. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 364.0 PA - 109.45 JA Points
8. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 311.0 PA - 106.62 JA Points
9. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 319.0 PA - 106.58 JA Points
10. Will Smith (LAD) - 295.0 PA - 105.36 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 114.0mph - home_run
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 113.7mph - home_run
Riley Greene (DET) - 112.1mph - single
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) - 110.7mph - field_out
Nelson Cruz (WSH) - 110.6mph - single
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 110.5mph - field_out
Seth Brown (OAK) - 110.5mph - field_out
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 110.4mph - single
Cam Gallagher (KC) - 110.2mph - field_out
Albert Pujols (STL) - 110.1mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Yordan Alvarez - 66 PA, 38 BIP, 12 Brls, 31.6 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 76 PA, 49 BIP, 14 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 75 PA, 47 BIP, 12 Brls, 25.5 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 80 PA, 60 BIP, 15 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Diego Castillo - 52 PA, 29 BIP, 7 Brls, 24.1 Brl%
Jorge Alfaro - 54 PA, 30 BIP, 7 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Franmil Reyes - 73 PA, 39 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 81 PA, 49 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.4 Brl%
Luke Voit - 66 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Franchy Cordero - 57 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 89 PA, 135 Swings, 96.3 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 78 PA, 125 Swings, 92.8 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 57 PA, 97 Swings, 92.8 Cont%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 49 PA, 67 Swings, 91.0 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 54 PA, 76 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 56 PA, 116 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Alex Verdugo - 81 PA, 136 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Wander Franco - 57 PA, 103 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 62 PA, 121 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 65 PA, 113 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Carlos Santana - 67 PA, 19.4 K%, 15.6 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 60 PA, 20.0 K%, 15.9 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 80 PA, 16.2 K%, 25.0 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 74 PA, 14.9 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 75 PA, 20.0 K%, 25.5 Brl%
Yadiel Hernandez - 54 PA, 16.7 K%, 17.1 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Jonathan Schoop - +10.5% Contact%, +3.7 mph exit velo, -10.9 Chase%
Matt Chapman - +3.8% Contact%, +5.5 mph exit velo, -9.1 Chase%
Randal Grichuk - +9.1% Contact%, +7.8 mph exit velo, -10.3 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Carlos Santana - 0.399 xwOBA, 15.6% Brl%, 75.6% Contact%, 24.5% Chase%, 20.0% K%
George Springer - 0.416 xwOBA, 12.8% Brl%, 77.1% Contact%, 22.9% Chase%, 9.7% K%
Justin Turner - 0.412 xwOBA, 15.8% Brl%, 76.3% Contact%, 20.6% Chase%, 16.0% K%
Kris Bryant - 0.459 xwOBA, 11.4% Brl%, 85.7% Contact%, 23.3% Chase%, 5.9% K%
Marcell Ozuna - 0.391 xwOBA, 13.6% Brl%, 82.5% Contact%, 22.4% Chase%, 14.0% K%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 0.386 xwOBA, 11.8% Brl%, 91.0% Contact%, 22.2% Chase%, 12.2% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Manny Machado - 42.7% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.978 Cold Rating
Patrick Wisdom - 40.3% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.942 Cold Rating
Rafael Devers - 37.8% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.926 Cold Rating
Orlando Arcia - 33.9% Whiff%, 78.3% Weak%, 0.914 Cold Rating
Brian Anderson - 37.1% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.907 Cold Rating
Michael A. Taylor - 31.4% Whiff%, 78.3% Weak%, 0.885 Cold Rating
Javier Baez - 34.1% Whiff%, 69.7% Weak%, 0.872 Cold Rating
Taylor Walls - 31.0% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.865 Cold Rating
Stephen Piscotty - 46.2% Whiff%, 63.2% Weak%, 0.848 Cold Rating
Jorge Mateo - 41.2% Whiff%, 63.6% Weak%, 0.845 Cold Rating
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