MLB Daily Notes: Monday, July 25
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
We’re back with the Mitch Keller thing, who went for a 33.8% CSW% and a solid 13.5% SwStr%, albeit against the Marlins weak offense. He had scrapped the sinker for the first two months, and then brought it back heavily, but now has dropped it back down a bit without completely scrapping it. Yesterday was his most evenly spread distirubiton of pitches going
23 sliders
16 four-seamers
14 sinkers
11 changeups
10 curveballs
Since June he has gone
273 sinkers
198 sliders
174 four-seamers
122 curveballs
65 changeups
And those have worked like this:
The four-seamer is working really well (16.7% SwStr%, 4.2% Brl%), and that might just have to do with the reduced usage and the mix-in with the sinker. He’s getting ground-balls with the sinker and keeping the ball in the yard 100% of the time, but the slider hasn't been all that good with a SwStr% of 13.1% which is pretty bad for a slider.
In his last three outings, he has thrown 19 innings while giving up four earned runs, striking out 18, and walking just two. Those three matchups were against the Marlins twice and the Rockies (in Coors, though!). We’ve been here so many times with Keller that it seems wise to just ignore him, but there’s the information.
Reid Detmers also put up his third straight quality start since returning from the minors, this time against the tough Braves lineup. He’s done this since the return:
vs. BAL: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 7 K, 1 BB
vs. HOU: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 6 K, 3 BB
vs. ATL: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 6 K, 2 BB
Here’s the arsenal breakdown in those three starts
So not a very convincing SwStr% on the slider, but a solid mark on the fastball and he’s using the curveball and changeup a bit more with mixed results. In these three starts overall it’s a 29.2% K% and a 9.2% BB% without giving up a homer and just a 2.6% Brl%. Those are impressive numbers especially considering the Astros and Braves were two of the matchups, so we should probably add Detmers for the stretch run.
Sonny Gray had the best start of the day, taking advantage of the Tigers. The 10.7% SwStr% was still really bad, especially by his standards, so it wasn’t all that convincing of a start. The fact that 26.2% of his 36.9% CSW% came via the called strike is pretty wild, so maybe he was just locking hitters up or painting the corners or both, I don’t know - either way, a step in the right direction for Gray who has really struggled this year (16.7% K%, 5.3% BB% since 6/1).
Framber Valdez also struck out a bunch of Mariners as his K% continues to climb:
That’s quite good to see. We know he can have fantasy success without the strikeout, so if he can push that K% up towards 25% we could be in for some really good starts down the stretch - although I wouldn’t count on that trend to continue.
The top 20 JA hitters of July right now are:
Juan Soto
Freddie Freeman
Corey Seager
DJ LeMahieu
Matt Carpenter
Carson Kelly
Austin Riley
Yordan Alvarez
Ketel Marte
Jorge Polanco
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
J.T. Realmuto
Nolan Arenado
Marcus Semien
Kris Bryant
Wilmer Flores
Chas McCormick
Carlos Santana
Justin Turner
Let’s also give an update on the best and worst parks for HR/Brl (the percent of barrels that are going for a homer)
1 CIN 63.2%
2 MIL 61.8%
3 LAD 54.7%
4 NYM 52.8%
5 PHI 50.8%
league average: 46.7%
26 KC 40.3%
27 SF 39.9%
28 ARI 38.4%
29 BAL 36.6%
30 DET 32.2%
I also find it interesting that Nick Castellanos now leads the league (350 PA minimum) in swing rate, with a Swing% of 57.3%. Here are those top and bottom 10
Castellanos 57.3%
Bichette 56.9%
Devers 56.6%
Schoop 55.6%
Seager 54.4%
Garcia 43.9%
Mullins 53.3%
Hays 53.3%
Riley 52.7%
N Lowe 52.6%
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Soto 35.8%
Grisham 38.3%
Bregman 38.9%
LeMahieu 38.9%
Straw 39.2%
Schwarber 39.4%
Cronenworth 39.8%
Joe 40.2%
Y Diaz 40.2%
Hoskins 41.2%
Check out the dashboard for all of that information and tons more!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Sonny Gray (MIN): 10.7 SwStr%, 36.9 CSW%
2. Jackson Stephens (ATL): 18.3 SwStr%, 36.7 CSW%
3. Bailey Falter (PHI): 14.6 SwStr%, 34.1 CSW%
4. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 14.3 SwStr%, 33.9 CSW%
5. Mitch Keller (PIT): 13.5 SwStr%, 33.8 CSW%
6. Dean Kremer (BAL): 14.5 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
7. Framber Valdez (HOU): 16.7 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
8. Shane Bieber (CLE): 19.7 SwStr%, 31.6 CSW%
9. Alex Cobb (SF): 12.5 SwStr%, 30.8 CSW%
10. Reid Detmers (LAA): 12.2 SwStr%, 30.0 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Framber Valdez - 6.67 IP - 74.5 JA Points
2. Nestor Cortes - 6.0 IP - 67.25 JA Points
3. Mitch Keller - 6.0 IP - 56.0 JA Points
4. Drew Smyly - 6.0 IP - 54.0 JA Points
5. Sonny Gray - 6.0 IP - 54.0 JA Points
6. Alex Cobb - 5.67 IP - 51.25 JA Points
7. Sandy Alcantara - 6.0 IP - 50.0 JA Points
8. Martin Perez - 7.0 IP - 43.0 JA Points
9. Dean Kremer - 5.0 IP - 37.5 JA Points
10. Clayton Kershaw - 4.33 IP - 37.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 10 GS - 56.37 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 18 GS - 55.14 JA Points
3. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 19 GS - 54.52 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 16 GS - 53.22 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 20 GS - 52.34 JA Points
6. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 12 GS - 50.96 JA Points
7. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 14 GS - 49.71 JA Points
8. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 20 GS - 47.83 JA Points
9. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 19 GS - 46.88 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 14 GS - 46.08 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Reid Detmers's SL velo (28 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 86.1
Dylan Cease's CU velo (11 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 82.7
Mitch Keller's CH velo (11 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 93.5
Clarke Schmidt's CU velo (11 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 84.4
Miles Mikolas's SI velo (22 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 94.4
Clarke Schmidt's SL velo (24 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 87.2
Sandy Alcantara's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 91.1
Mitch Keller's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 77.6
Ross Stripling's FF velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 90.2
Rony Garcia's CU velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 78.6
Carlos Carrasco's SL velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 83.6
Rony Garcia's FF velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 90.4
Mitch Keller's SL velo (23 pitches) DOWN -3.5mph to 82.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Austin Gomber's CU usage (28.6%) up 12.3 points
Brayan Bello's SI usage (50.7%) up 21.5 points
Carlos Carrasco's SI usage (22.8%) up 13.9 points
Dylan Cease's SL usage (53.6%) up 11.0 points
Erick Fedde's SI usage (55.6%) up 17.9 points
Framber Valdez's FC usage (18.6%) up 11.3 points
Jeffrey Springs's SL usage (35.9%) up 11.0 points
Nestor Cortes's FF usage (52.1%) up 11.8 points
Reid Detmers's SL usage (31.1%) up 11.6 points
Robbie Ray's SI usage (30.6%) up 14.5 points
Rony Garcia's CH usage (35.5%) up 25.4 points
Sonny Gray's FF usage (41.7%) up 16.8 points
Tyler Mahle's FF usage (62.0%) up 11.5 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 77 TBF, 39.1% CSW%
Max Scherzer - 97 TBF, 38.7% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Jose Berrios - 73 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Brandon Woodruff - 75 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Kyle Wright - 100 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Chris Bassitt - 76 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 91 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 74 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 77 TBF, 42.9% K%
Max Scherzer - 97 TBF, 40.2% K%
David Peterson - 67 TBF, 37.3% K%
Jose Berrios - 73 TBF, 35.6% K%
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 35.3% K%
Justin Verlander - 77 TBF, 35.1% K%
Sandy Alcantara - 105 TBF, 34.3% K%
Corbin Burnes - 74 TBF, 33.8% K%
Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 32.4% K%
Blake Snell - 65 TBF, 32.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Max Scherzer - 97 TBF, 38.1% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 77 TBF, 35.1% K-BB%
Jose Berrios - 73 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Justin Verlander - 77 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%
Sandy Alcantara - 105 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Alex Wood - 80 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Clayton Kershaw - 74 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Jon Gray - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 65 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 87 TBF, 67.7% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 67 TBF, 64.6% GB%
Andre Pallante - 69 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Brad Keller - 71 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Alex Cobb - 106 TBF, 60.5% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 105 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Justin Steele - 75 TBF, 58.0% GB%
Jose Urena - 100 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Logan Webb - 101 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 74 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Wood - 80 TBF, 31.2 K%, 3.8 BB%, 53.8% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 91 TBF, 27.5 K%, 5.5 BB%, 49.2% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 74 TBF, 29.7 K%, 2.7 BB%, 56.0% GB%
Robbie Ray - 65 TBF, 29.2 K%, 3.1 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 105 TBF, 34.3 K%, 5.7 BB%, 58.1% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 70 TBF, 30.0 K%, 5.7 BB%, 53.5% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 74 TBF, 28.4 K%, 4.1 BB%, 52.0% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Mitch Keller - +4.1% CSW%, -7.3 BB%
Max Scherzer - +5.9% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Kyle Wright - +5.0% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Chris Bassitt - +3.9% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Jose Berrios - +5.7% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Jon Gray - +2.9% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +4.2% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Dean Kremer - +3.2% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Jake Odorizzi - +4.3% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Yan Gomes (CHC) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Garrett Hampson (COL) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Pete Alonso (NYM) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Pete Alonso - 4.0 PA - 72.0 JA Points
2. Adolis Garcia - 5.0 PA - 60.0 JA Points
3. Yan Gomes - 4.0 PA - 57.0 JA Points
4. Sean Murphy - 5.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
5. A.J. Pollock - 4.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
6. Josh Bell - 5.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
7. Keibert Ruiz - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
8. Nelson Velazquez - 4.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
9. Hunter Renfroe - 4.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
10. Jose Altuve - 5.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 324.0 PA - 152.84 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 406.0 PA - 128.47 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (WSH) - 402.0 PA - 125.87 JA Points
4. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 316.0 PA - 120.38 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 417.0 PA - 117.03 JA Points
6. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 411.0 PA - 109.29 JA Points
7. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 404.0 PA - 106.73 JA Points
8. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 356.0 PA - 105.73 JA Points
9. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
10. Will Smith (LAD) - 330.0 PA - 104.0 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Christian Yelich (MIL) - 117.2mph - triple
Austin Riley (ATL) - 114.8mph - single
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 112.8mph - single
Christopher Morel (CHC) - 111.4mph - single
Rowdy Tellez (MIL) - 111.2mph - single
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 111.1mph - home_run
Sean Murphy (OAK) - 110.6mph - home_run
Andrew McCutchen (MIL) - 110.6mph - double
Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 110.3mph - foul
Eric Haase (DET) - 109.9mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 73 PA, 42 BIP, 13 Brls, 31.0 Brl%
Darick Hall - 54 PA, 32 BIP, 8 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 44 PA, 29 BIP, 7 Brls, 24.1 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 61 PA, 34 BIP, 8 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
J.D. Martinez - 54 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Ramon Laureano - 71 PA, 43 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.9 Brl%
Darin Ruf - 43 PA, 24 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Austin Riley - 73 PA, 53 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Brandon Belt - 44 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Manny Machado - 68 PA, 46 BIP, 9 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Juan Soto - 61 PA, 0.508 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 73 PA, 0.500 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 68 PA, 0.499 xwOBA
Austin Riley - 73 PA, 0.478 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 69 PA, 0.477 xwOBA
Ketel Marte - 63 PA, 0.450 xwOBA
Carson Kelly - 44 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Carlos Santana - 55 PA, 0.432 xwOBA
Anthony Santander - 62 PA, 0.419 xwOBA
Gavin Lux - 54 PA, 0.419 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 59 PA, 95 Swings, 93.7 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 84 PA, 134 Swings, 92.5 Cont%
Myles Straw - 59 PA, 92 Swings, 92.4 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 65 PA, 105 Swings, 92.4 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 53 PA, 97 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Ty France - 54 PA, 107 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Joey Wendle - 64 PA, 110 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 42 PA, 90 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 59 PA, 98 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 63 PA, 97 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Hicks - 54 PA, 18.5 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Corey Seager - 69 PA, 8.7 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Jorge Polanco - 63 PA, 15.9 K%, 18.4 Brl%
Ketel Marte - 63 PA, 7.9 K%, 16.3 Brl%
LaMonte Wade Jr. - 45 PA, 20.0 K%, 17.2 Brl%
Trent Grisham - 52 PA, 19.2 K%, 14.7 Brl%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 75 PA, 18.7 K%, 14.5 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Sean Murphy - +14.5% Contact%, +6.6 mph exit velo, -12.7 Chase%
Marcus Semien - +7.1% Contact%, +3.7 mph exit velo, -13.1 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Juan Soto - 0.463 xwOBA, 10.3% Brl%, 86.2% Contact%, 20.8% Chase%, 9.5% K%
Matt Carpenter - 0.397 xwOBA, 16.0% Brl%, 79.7% Contact%, 15.6% Chase%, 17.1% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Trey Mancini - 35.1% Whiff%, 86.4% Weak%, 0.967 Cold Rating
Jonathan Schoop - 29.3% Whiff%, 75.9% Weak%, 0.882 Cold Rating
Kole Calhoun - 48.8% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.872 Cold Rating
Gleyber Torres - 27.7% Whiff%, 74.2% Weak%, 0.856 Cold Rating
Luke Voit - 30.9% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.854 Cold Rating
Ramon Laureano - 32.6% Whiff%, 69.0% Weak%, 0.837 Cold Rating
Ryan Mountcastle - 30.9% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.833 Cold Rating
Brandon Drury - 25.7% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.807 Cold Rating
Franmil Reyes - 41.1% Whiff%, 64.0% Weak%, 0.805 Cold Rating
Javier Baez - 25.8% Whiff%, 72.4% Weak%, 0.789 Cold Rating
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