MLB Daily Notes: Monday, September 5
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
I sit here, drinking a $6 pumpkin cream cold from Starbucks. My parents are here for the weekend, so I had my dad bring me a case of Blockhouse Pumpkin Ale, one of my favorites from back in Pennsylvania. I’m that kind of guy, a real bitch for the fall. I even wear pants now.
I can’t understand Nick Lodolo, he had probably the best start of the day for everybody but fell short of the top ten in CSW%. I mean it’s not like that is shocking or anything, CSW% is just one stat and doesn’t carry a ton of weight in terms of box score results over one start, but this guy just seems to do better with lower CSW%’s this year - lol.
I will continue to bang the drum for him; I just think the ceiling is so stupid high with what the arsenal he has. He had a nice 52% GB% yesterday, bringing his season mark just shy of 42%. That’s pretty low for a sinker-ball pitcher:
But I suppose Lodolo’s sinker isn’t really a typical sinker. We’ve talked a lot on here about how he gets way more whiffs with the sinker than others. He is a bit of a side-arm guy, which changes everything.
This is a good chance to show off the “pitch movement” tab of my Tableau Dashboard.
So his sinker is harder, with more spin, and way more horizontal movement than the average sinker. That makes sense why it’s harder to contact. The vertical movement is still pretty much on track with the league average, but I guess the horizontal movement negates a bit of that in terms of generation ground-balls? I don’t know. It’s a great pitch, but more ground balls in GABP would always be better. Anyways, I love the guy. Might invite him over for Thanksgiving this year.
Pablo Lopez was letting it fly yesterday and had the fastball velo up almost 2.5 miles per hour. That’s pretty wild to see this late in the year. His start was cut short by a long rain delay, but an encouraging sign for the last few starts of the year. He’ll be quite cheap once again in drafts next year and I’m guessing I’ll be buying in once again.
Oneil Cruz hit one of the silliest homers I’ve ever seen. As a long time Pirate fan, I’ve watched tons of games in PNC Park and I’ve never seen someone hit a ball into the bullpen at this angle:
Guy is really something special. The trope you hear with him is that it doesn’t matter how hard you can hit the ball if you’re only making contact on 63% of your swings. That actually isn’t at all true. The guy has 12 homers in his 241 plate appearances, which is meaningful. If the 37% K% can turn into 27% - you’ve really got something special with him. The Pirates, and dynasty managers, really need a loooong leash on the guy. Oh and they should stop playing him at shortstop, I have no idea why they’re fooling themselves like that. Just DH the guy for now and then get him out in right field eventually, right?
Seiya Suzuki is alive again, hitting .333 and slugging .444 over the last three weeks. He really fooled us early on as he was one of the game’s best hitters in April but has been pretty much just “fine” ever since. He could be worth an add if someone in your redraft league gave up.
It’s FOOTBALL WEEK, so let me remind you all that I have an NFL projections system running. The weekly projections are available for PAID SUBS, and it comes with a slick Dashboard.
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CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Dylan Bundy (MIN): 15.2 SwStr%, 39.4 CSW%
2. Pablo Lopez (MIA): 18.7 SwStr%, 36.0 CSW%
3. Ross Stripling (TOR): 16.8 SwStr%, 35.8 CSW%
4. German Marquez (COL): 14.9 SwStr%, 34.5 CSW%
5. Frankie Montas (NYY): 24.7 SwStr%, 34.4 CSW%
6. Ryan Yarbrough (TB): 14.8 SwStr%, 31.5 CSW%
7. Carlos Rodon (SF): 14.2 SwStr%, 31.1 CSW%
8. Tucker Davidson (LAA): 11.4 SwStr%, 30.7 CSW%
9. Trevor Williams (NYM): 10.7 SwStr%, 30.4 CSW%
10. Ranger Suarez (PHI): 14.5 SwStr%, 30.4 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Frankie Montas - 5.0 IP - 89.5 JA Points
2. Jose Urquidy - 7.0 IP - 78.75 JA Points
3. Nick Lodolo - 6.0 IP - 71.5 JA Points
4. Carlos Rodon - 6.0 IP - 63.0 JA Points
5. Marcus Stroman - 7.0 IP - 59.0 JA Points
6. Ross Stripling - 6.0 IP - 56.5 JA Points
7. Max Fried - 5.0 IP - 50.75 JA Points
8. Dylan Bundy - 5.0 IP - 46.5 JA Points
9. Pablo Lopez - 4.0 IP - 46.0 JA Points
10. Adrian Martinez - 6.0 IP - 44.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 17.0 GS - 57.59 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 24.0 GS - 51.93 JA Points
3. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 27.0 GS - 51.21 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 23.0 GS - 50.36 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 27.0 GS - 48.26 JA Points
6. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 27.0 GS - 48.25 JA Points
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 27.0 GS - 47.51 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 20.0 GS - 46.76 JA Points
9. Blake Snell (SD) - 18.0 GS - 45.64 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 20.0 GS - 45.34 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Pablo Lopez's CU velo (10 pitches) UP 2.7mph to 83.4
Pablo Lopez's FF velo (32 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 95.6
Carlos Rodon's SL velo (41 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 87.5
Pablo Lopez's CH velo (22 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 89.1
Ranger Suarez's FC velo (15 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 91.0
Dane Dunning's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 80.0
Max Fried's CU velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 72.8
Ryan Pepiot's SL velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 85.4
Chase Anderson's FC velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 90.6
Chase Anderson's CH velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 83.6
JT Brubaker's SL velo (29 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 85.1
Ranger Suarez's CU velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 75.1
Chase Anderson's FF velo (19 pitches) DOWN -2.8mph to 91.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Carlos Carrasco's SI usage (22.2%) up 10.6 points
Chase Anderson's FF usage (33.9%) up 23.0 points
Dane Dunning's FC usage (24.7%) up 14.1 points
Dylan Bundy's SL usage (36.4%) up 13.0 points
Erick Fedde's SI usage (56.4%) up 17.2 points
Jose Urquidy's CU usage (28.8%) up 14.6 points
Josh Winckowski's FC usage (28.0%) up 19.9 points
Josh Winckowski's CH usage (20.7%) up 11.8 points
Max Fried's FF usage (50.0%) up 17.5 points
Mike Clevinger's FF usage (55.9%) up 14.3 points
Ranger Suarez's CU usage (21.7%) up 13.1 points
Ranger Suarez's FC usage (21.7%) up 13.5 points
Ross Stripling's CH usage (45.3%) up 18.0 points
Ryan Yarbrough's CU usage (37.0%) up 10.9 points
Ryan Yarbrough's CH usage (35.2%) up 12.0 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 82 TBF, 36.8% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 79 TBF, 36.1% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 94 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Jose Berrios - 75 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Corey Kluber - 97 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 79 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Ross Stripling - 94 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Jakob Junis - 94 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 94 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
JT Brubaker - 76 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 94 TBF, 38.3% K%
Charlie Morton - 94 TBF, 36.2% K%
Carlos Rodon - 94 TBF, 35.1% K%
Zac Gallen - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Aaron Nola - 82 TBF, 30.5% K%
Shane Bieber - 79 TBF, 30.4% K%
Luis Castillo - 96 TBF, 29.2% K%
Joe Ryan - 96 TBF, 29.2% K%
Robbie Ray - 94 TBF, 28.7% K%
Ross Stripling - 94 TBF, 28.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 94 TBF, 34.0% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 82 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 94 TBF, 28.7% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 94 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 94 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 79 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
George Kirby - 83 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 96 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 94 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%
Ross Stripling - 94 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 85 TBF, 67.9% GB%
Alex Cobb - 97 TBF, 66.7% GB%
Max Fried - 91 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 88 TBF, 63.2% GB%
JT Brubaker - 76 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 123 TBF, 61.9% GB%
Jordan Montgomery - 99 TBF, 59.7% GB%
Shane Bieber - 79 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Kyle Wright - 75 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Luis Castillo - 96 TBF, 55.7% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
George Kirby - 83 TBF, 27.7 K%, 2.4 BB%, 54.4% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 70 TBF, 31.4 K%, 2.9 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Kyle Wright - 75 TBF, 28.0 K%, 5.3 BB%, 56.0% GB%
Luis Castillo - 96 TBF, 29.2 K%, 4.2 BB%, 55.7% GB%
Ross Stripling - 94 TBF, 28.7 K%, 4.3 BB%, 48.4% GB%
Shane Bieber - 79 TBF, 30.4 K%, 5.1 BB%, 56.9% GB%
Zac Gallen - 94 TBF, 34.0 K%, 5.3 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Corey Kluber - +3.7% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Dean Kremer - +2.5% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Jakob Junis - +3.4% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Zac Gallen - +2.9% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Ross Stripling - +5.3% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Aaron Nola - +4.1% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Patrick Sandoval - +5.5% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
JT Brubaker - +2.9% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Jose Berrios - +4.9% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Spencer Strider - +2.1% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Lance Lynn - +3.8% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Triston McKenzie - +2.2% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Bailey Falter - +3.3% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Andrew Heaney - +7.3% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Daniel Norris - +3.2% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Aaron Judge (NYY) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Carlos Correa (MIN) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Hunter Renfroe (MIL) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Seth Brown (OAK) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
TJ Friedl (CIN) 9 PA, 15 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Seth Brown - 4.0 PA - 57.0 JA Points
2. Hunter Renfroe - 4.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge - 5.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
4. TJ Friedl - 4.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
5. Marcell Ozuna - 3.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
6. Will Smith - 5.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
7. Jonathan India - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
8. Juan Soto - 5.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
9. Connor Wong - 4.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
10. Cesar Hernandez - 4.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 562.0 PA - 138.58 JA Points
2. Juan Soto (SD) - 549.0 PA - 136.76 JA Points
3. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 450.0 PA - 133.87 JA Points
4. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 555.0 PA - 112.43 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 586.0 PA - 109.49 JA Points
6. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 445.0 PA - 105.98 JA Points
7. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 496.0 PA - 103.95 JA Points
8. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 307.0 PA - 97.85 JA Points
9. Alex Bregman (HOU) - 543.0 PA - 95.47 JA Points
10. Will Smith (LAD) - 478.0 PA - 94.06 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 115.8mph - home_run
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 115.3mph - home_run
Carlos Correa (MIN) - 114.0mph - double
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 113.4mph - double
Anthony Santander (BAL) - 112.0mph - double
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 111.0mph - grounded_into_double_play
Cal Raleigh (SEA) - 111.0mph - home_run
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 110.4mph - single
Mitch Haniger (SEA) - 110.3mph - single
Gary Sanchez (MIN) - 110.3mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Cal Raleigh - 56 PA, 37 BIP, 9 Brls, 24.3 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 78 PA, 44 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.7 Brl%
Oneil Cruz - 60 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Evan Longoria - 49 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Luke Voit - 65 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 71 PA, 42 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.0 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 67 PA, 46 BIP, 8 Brls, 17.4 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 74 PA, 43 BIP, 7 Brls, 16.3 Brl%
Tyler O'Neill - 81 PA, 56 BIP, 9 Brls, 16.1 Brl%
Nathaniel Lowe - 82 PA, 62 BIP, 10 Brls, 16.1 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Nathaniel Lowe - 82 PA, 0.465 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 78 PA, 0.451 xwOBA
Cal Raleigh - 56 PA, 0.444 xwOBA
Eloy Jimenez - 66 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
Yandy Diaz - 78 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
Joc Pederson - 53 PA, 0.428 xwOBA
Justin Turner - 76 PA, 0.428 xwOBA
Albert Pujols - 55 PA, 0.417 xwOBA
Corey Dickerson - 48 PA, 0.416 xwOBA
Tyler O'Neill - 81 PA, 0.412 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 81 PA, 134 Swings, 94.0 Cont%
Nick Madrigal - 71 PA, 126 Swings, 92.9 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 79 PA, 124 Swings, 91.1 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 54 PA, 80 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 78 PA, 137 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 61 PA, 104 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Brendan Donovan - 64 PA, 93 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 68 PA, 112 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 79 PA, 127 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
David Fletcher - 81 PA, 117 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Albert Pujols - 55 PA, 12.7 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 56 PA, 19.6 K%, 24.3 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 66 PA, 13.6 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Kerry Carpenter - 46 PA, 19.6 K%, 15.6 Brl%
Lars Nootbaar - 86 PA, 15.1 K%, 14.5 Brl%
Manny Machado - 77 PA, 19.5 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Matt Olson - 79 PA, 17.7 K%, 15.5 Brl%
Mookie Betts - 83 PA, 15.7 K%, 14.5 Brl%
Nathaniel Lowe - 82 PA, 15.9 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Tyler O'Neill - 81 PA, 16.0 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 88 PA, 11.4 K%, 15.3 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Julio Rodriguez - +5.2% Contact%, +9.0 mph exit velo, -10.3 Chase%
Bo Bichette - +13.9% Contact%, +5.0 mph exit velo, -7.7 Chase%
Sean Murphy - +6.8% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -4.4 Chase%
Brian Anderson - +4.5% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -8.5 Chase%
C.J. Cron - +6.9% Contact%, +3.0 mph exit velo, -6.0 Chase%
Vimael Machin - +7.8% Contact%, +5.8 mph exit velo, -3.9 Chase%
Michael Harris II - +15.4% Contact%, +7.7 mph exit velo, -11.8 Chase%
Willi Castro - +5.6% Contact%, +4.9 mph exit velo, -7.5 Chase%
Yuli Gurriel - +8.6% Contact%, +6.5 mph exit velo, -6.5 Chase%
Nicky Lopez - +5.1% Contact%, +5.9 mph exit velo, -5.6 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Carlos Correa - 0.375 xwOBA, 14.0% Brl%, 83.3% Contact%, 21.3% Chase%, 15.3% K%
Nathaniel Lowe - 0.479 xwOBA, 18.6% Brl%, 84.1% Contact%, 24.2% Chase%, 14.0% K%
Seiya Suzuki - 0.409 xwOBA, 11.1% Brl%, 83.2% Contact%, 16.0% Chase%, 12.3% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
P.J. Higgins - 37.3% Whiff%, 82.4% Weak%, 0.972 Cold Rating
Jo Adell - 39.3% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.943 Cold Rating
Andrew McCutchen - 31.9% Whiff%, 76.0% Weak%, 0.903 Cold Rating
Jose Barrero - 30.2% Whiff%, 80.8% Weak%, 0.901 Cold Rating
Drew Waters - 29.9% Whiff%, 77.3% Weak%, 0.879 Cold Rating
Emmanuel Rivera - 41.1% Whiff%, 69.2% Weak%, 0.871 Cold Rating
Gilberto Celestino - 30.1% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.844 Cold Rating
Jorge Mateo - 27.0% Whiff%, 92.3% Weak%, 0.835 Cold Rating
Rougned Odor - 29.2% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.82 Cold Rating
Bubba Thompson - 31.9% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.819 Cold Rating
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