MLB Daily Notes - Saturday, April 9
The hitter projection model came out of the gates this morning giving Joey Votto 0.69 homers today. I immediately went and placed all the money I have on him hitting a dinger today at nearly 4:1 odds.
Soon enough, I realized that my model had doubled the projected plate appearances for every team facing a pitcher with fewer than 1,000 pitches thrown in their careers. I’ve been on hold with DraftKings Sportsbook support for an hour now.
Fixing the model cost me most of the precious 45 minutes I had before my kids woke up, and now I am writing this with one hand while giving my son his second banana with the other. It’s incredible how much food a baby/toddler can fit in their little stomach. Like they say your stomach is as big as your fist, well two bananas would more than cover this dude’s fist size. Their digestion systems must be in such sick working order that they go right to work at nuking that food. It’s pretty amazing. Kids are great, but I wish they’d sleep in past 6:30.
Baby Lee over here just makes noises in the morning unless he has food in his mouth, and what I find is that it’s cute when you’re paying attention to him and playing with him and stuff, but when your attention is on something else - the noise is really irritating. Also, there’s snow on the ground this morning so I’d have to put his boots on before chucking him outside to get away from him and that’s just too much work right now.
If you’re a younger man out there reading this (I have no doubts that my audience is 100% male between the ages of 25 and 55), and you’re on the fence about having kids - get off the fence, do it. I mean get married first, but do it. Play the long game. But make no mistakes - the first two years of having kids is just not all that fun for the man, at least after the “oh my God I made another person” awe of it all wears off… which I guess it really doesn’t, sometimes you just have to look at your kids and think that again, and then everything becomes a bit more pleasurable. Point is, the narrative goes that newborn babies are amazing and great but then once they turn two or three everything gets worse, I find it to be the complete opposite - and I’ve heard the same from most honest men I’ve talked to. Give me the three-year-old that can fully talk and reason and half-understand your jokes and stuff over the newborn any day.
CSW% Leaders
1. Lucas Giolito (CWS): 19.7 SwStr%, 39.3 CSW%
2. Nathan Eovaldi (BOS): 22.4 SwStr%, 38.2 CSW%
3. Aaron Nola (PHI): 13.2 SwStr%, 36.8 CSW%
4. Shane McClanahan (TB): 19.1 SwStr%, 36.8 CSW%
5. Merrill Kelly (ARI): 16.0 SwStr%, 36.0 CSW%
6. Frankie Montas (OAK): 17.4 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
7. Robbie Ray (SEA): 17.7 SwStr%, 31.2 CSW%
8. Sean Manaea (SD): 10.2 SwStr%, 30.7 CSW%
9. Logan Webb (SF): 14.1 SwStr%, 30.6 CSW%
10. Charlie Morton (ATL): 9.0 SwStr%, 29.5 CSW%
Velo Changes
Nathan Eovaldi's CU velo (17 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 81.0
Kyle Freeland's CU velo (18 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 82.2
Merrill Kelly's CH velo (17 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 88.9
Nathan Eovaldi's SL velo (15 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 87.4
Merrill Kelly's SI velo (13 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 93.1
Eduardo Rodriguez's FF velo (31 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 91.1
Josiah Gray's FF velo (36 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 93.0
Walker Buehler's FC velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 89.9
Walker Buehler's SI velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 93.6
Josiah Gray's CU velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 81.6
Frankie Montas's SL velo (20 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 86.7
Robbie Ray's SL velo (26 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 86.3
Walker Buehler's SL velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 82.6
John Means's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 83.9
Robbie Ray's FF velo (62 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 92.3
Reid Detmers's SL velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 83.0
Sean Manaea's CU velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 80.0
Pitch Mix Changes
Charlie Morton's FF usage (46.2%) up 10.2 points
Frankie Montas's FS usage (33.7%) up 11.3 points
Gerrit Cole's SL usage (35.4%) up 13.0 points
Jake Odorizzi's FF usage (66.7%) up 11.5 points
Jon Gray's FF usage (61.4%) up 13.8 points
Logan Webb's CH usage (35.3%) up 11.4 points
Reid Detmers's FF usage (52.0%) up 10.1 points
Reiver Sanmartin's FF usage (43.1%) up 14.9 points
Sandy Alcantara's FF usage (36.1%) up 14.0 points
Sandy Alcantara's SL usage (34.9%) up 10.2 points
Shane McClanahan's CU usage (35.3%) up 18.9 points
Walker Buehler's FC usage (28.2%) up 11.9 points
Walker Buehler's SI usage (17.9%) up 10.5 points
K-BB% Leaders - Season
Shohei Ohtani - 19 TBF, 42.1% K-BB%
Tylor Megill - 18 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 23 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Merrill Kelly - 17 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%
Adam Wainwright - 21 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Sean Manaea - 22 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 19 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 23 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Tyler Mahle - 20 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 22 TBF, 22.7% K-BB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers
Aaron Nola - 23 TBF, 30.4 K%, 0.0 BB%, 66.7% GB%
Adam Wainwright - 21 TBF, 28.6 K%, 0.0 BB%, 53.3% GB%
Framber Valdez - 22 TBF, 27.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 73.3% GB%
Frankie Montas - 22 TBF, 27.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 23 TBF, 30.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 64.3% GB%
Sean Manaea - 22 TBF, 31.8 K%, 4.5 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Tylor Megill - 18 TBF, 33.3 K%, 0.0 BB%, 58.3% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Andrew Vaughn (CWS) 4 PA, 14 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jeremy Pena (HOU) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Kyle Tucker (HOU) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Santiago Espinal (TOR) 3 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Hardest Hit Balls
Joc Pederson (SF) - 116.3mph - foul
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 116.3mph - home_run
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 113.5mph - double
Juan Soto (WSH) - 113.2mph - field_out
Nelson Cruz (WSH) - 112.7mph - single
George Springer (TOR) - 112.6mph - foul
Josh Bell (WSH) - 112.2mph - home_run
Jorge Alfaro (SD) - 112.1mph - single
Xander Bogaerts (BOS) - 111.8mph - single
Manny Machado (SD) - 111.3mph - single
Contact% Leaders - Season
Jake Cronenworth - 7 PA, 13 Swings, 100.0 Cont%
Mark Canha - 9 PA, 14 Swings, 92.9 Cont%
David Fletcher - 7 PA, 14 Swings, 92.9 Cont%
Michael Brantley - 9 PA, 13 Swings, 92.3 Cont%
Christian Walker - 7 PA, 12 Swings, 91.7 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 8 PA, 20 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Jared Walsh - 8 PA, 19 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Eric Hosmer - 8 PA, 18 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Juan Soto - 8 PA, 8 Swings, 87.5 Cont%
Kyle Tucker - 8 PA, 15 Swings, 86.7 Cont%
All projections will be updated throughout the day pulling in updated lineups & re-running projections, bookmark these Google Sheets!
Apr 9 Hitter Projections
Click here to view projections
Top HR Projections
Mike Trout 0.43
Shohei Ohtani 0.36
Brandon Lowe 0.36
Joey Votto 0.32
Hunter Renfroe 0.31
Adam Duval 0.31
Patrick Wisdom 0.30
Miguel Sano 0.30
Byron Buxton 0.30
Yordan Alvarez 0.29
Apr 9 Pitcher Projections
Click here to view projections
Top K Projections
Justin Verlander 6.9
Dylan Cease 6.8
Joan Adon 6.4
Brandon Woodruff 6.5
Carlos Rodon 6.4
Kevin Gausman 6.0
Chris Bassitt 5.9
Pablo Lopez 5.8
Nick Pivetta 5.7
Sonny Gray 5.4