MLB Daily Notes: Saturday, July 23
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
New podcast episode with Derek Carty is up. It was probably my favorite conversation I’ve had so far talking about the stuff I love the most - baseball projections. Derek gave us a little bit more than I was expecting about how his The Bat projection system works, and man it’s impressive. It inspired me to really beef up my own projection system, so I’ve started tinkering with it - and will probably look to add on a ton more stuff this offseason. Check out the episode wherever you get your podcasts, but here’s the Spotify link
I don’t have time to get into anything today, unfortunately. I’ll be on Podapalloozaa today from 1-2 eastern, fantasy baseball talk all day today and tomorrow! Check out all the details on Justin Mason’s Twitter - a fun event that I’m partaking in for the first time.
What can you look forward to during #Podapallooza2022, this Saturday, July 23 and Sunday, July 24, from 10 am to 5 pm EST each day, besides great fantasy baseball content, awesome prizes, and donations to support @BigLeagueImpact?
Great question. I would love to tell you. 🧵
Braxton Garrett was the talk of the night, and I have this to add - HE’S A MAGIC FORMULA QUALIFIER.
We’ll have to wait until next week to dive in more though. Here’s the automated reports and everything else:
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Max Scherzer (NYM): 16.1 SwStr%, 36.6 CSW%
2. Charlie Morton (ATL): 19.0 SwStr%, 36.2 CSW%
3. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 17.4 SwStr%, 35.9 CSW%
4. Braxton Garrett (MIA): 12.7 SwStr%, 34.2 CSW%
5. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 14.8 SwStr%, 32.4 CSW%
6. Yu Darvish (SD): 12.1 SwStr%, 32.3 CSW%
7. Darwinzon Hernandez (BOS): 20.0 SwStr%, 32.0 CSW%
8. Nathan Eovaldi (BOS): 11.1 SwStr%, 31.7 CSW%
9. Cole Irvin (OAK): 14.3 SwStr%, 31.0 CSW%
10. Patrick Corbin (WSH): 14.1 SwStr%, 30.3 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Kevin Gausman - 5.0 IP - 81.0 JA Points
2. Max Scherzer - 6.33 IP - 71.25 JA Points
3. Charlie Morton - 6.0 IP - 69.25 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani - 6.33 IP - 67.25 JA Points
5. Yu Darvish - 7.0 IP - 63.0 JA Points
6. Zac Gallen - 7.0 IP - 62.5 JA Points
7. Braxton Garrett - 6.0 IP - 57.5 JA Points
8. Cole Irvin - 6.67 IP - 54.0 JA Points
9. Tyler Anderson - 6.0 IP - 48.0 JA Points
10. Corbin Burnes - 5.0 IP - 47.75 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 10 GS - 56.37 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 18 GS - 55.14 JA Points
3. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 19 GS - 54.52 JA Points
4. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 19 GS - 53.65 JA Points
5. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 16 GS - 53.22 JA Points
6. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 12 GS - 50.96 JA Points
7. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 13 GS - 48.44 JA Points
8. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 19 GS - 47.99 JA Points
9. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 19 GS - 46.88 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 14 GS - 46.08 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Cal Quantrill's SI velo (31 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 94.9
Kevin Gausman's FS velo (44 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 86.7
Graham Ashcraft's SI velo (21 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 98.3
Nathan Eovaldi's FF velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 94.6
Nathan Eovaldi's FS velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 86.4
Nathan Eovaldi's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 77.1
Nathan Eovaldi's SL velo (14 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 84.5
Adam Wainwright's FC velo (32 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 82.5
Spencer Howard's FC velo (35 pitches) DOWN -3.7mph to 81.5
Zac Gallen's CH velo (18 pitches) DOWN -3.9mph to 83.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adam Wainwright's FF usage (20.8%) up 10.8 points
Cal Quantrill's CH usage (23.7%) up 12.5 points
Cole Irvin's FF usage (46.4%) up 13.0 points
Darwinzon Hernandez's SL usage (42.0%) up 12.5 points
Kyle Gibson's FF usage (25.6%) up 14.1 points
Patrick Corbin's SI usage (48.5%) up 12.8 points
Shohei Ohtani's FC usage (21.7%) up 17.2 points
Tyler Anderson's FF usage (48.4%) up 12.2 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 77 TBF, 39.1% CSW%
Max Scherzer - 97 TBF, 38.7% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 95 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 91 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Clayton Kershaw - 78 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 82 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Yu Darvish - 108 TBF, 32.3% CSW%
Jordan Montgomery - 94 TBF, 32.3% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 77 TBF, 42.9% K%
Spencer Strider - 82 TBF, 42.7% K%
Max Scherzer - 97 TBF, 40.2% K%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 36.7% K%
Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 32.4% K%
Sandy Alcantara - 81 TBF, 32.1% K%
Yu Darvish - 108 TBF, 31.5% K%
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 31.2% K%
Clayton Kershaw - 78 TBF, 30.8% K%
Dylan Cease - 95 TBF, 30.5% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Max Scherzer - 97 TBF, 38.1% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 77 TBF, 35.1% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 82 TBF, 34.1% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 29.6% K-BB%
Clayton Kershaw - 78 TBF, 29.5% K-BB%
Sandy Alcantara - 81 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 108 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Jon Gray - 97 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 23.5% K-BB%
Braxton Garrett - 91 TBF, 22.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 85 TBF, 72.5% GB%
Alex Cobb - 79 TBF, 66.1% GB%
Logan Webb - 128 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 81 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Jose Urena - 77 TBF, 56.7% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 78 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Aaron Nola - 86 TBF, 53.1% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 94 TBF, 53.0% GB%
Martin Perez - 77 TBF, 52.9% GB%
Zach Thompson - 93 TBF, 52.7% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Wood - 62 TBF, 30.6 K%, 1.6 BB%, 59.5% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 91 TBF, 27.5 K%, 5.5 BB%, 49.2% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 70 TBF, 27.1 K%, 7.1 BB%, 55.6% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 78 TBF, 30.8 K%, 1.3 BB%, 56.6% GB%
Robbie Ray - 73 TBF, 41.1 K%, 5.5 BB%, 48.7% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 81 TBF, 32.1 K%, 3.7 BB%, 57.7% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 67 TBF, 35.8 K%, 4.5 BB%, 55.0% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 70 TBF, 30.0 K%, 5.7 BB%, 53.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Jon Gray - +2.0% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Max Scherzer - +5.9% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Mitch Keller - +3.3% CSW%, -6.7 BB%
Kyle Wright - +5.0% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Robbie Ray - +3.6% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Jose Berrios - +5.7% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Aaron Judge (NYY) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Danny Jansen (TOR) 7 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Nelson Velazquez (CHC) 2 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Willson Contreras (CHC) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 7.0 PA - 73.0 JA Points
2. Seiya Suzuki - 6.0 PA - 66.0 JA Points
3. Willson Contreras - 5.0 PA - 65.0 JA Points
4. Nelson Velazquez - 2.0 PA - 59.0 JA Points
5. Yordan Alvarez - 4.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
6. Danny Jansen - 7.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
7. Jonathan India - 4.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
8. Aaron Judge - 4.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
9. Carlos Santana - 4.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
10. Teoscar Hernandez - 5.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 320.0 PA - 156.12 JA Points
2. Juan Soto (WSH) - 393.0 PA - 128.96 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 396.0 PA - 125.56 JA Points
4. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 312.0 PA - 121.41 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 408.0 PA - 116.67 JA Points
6. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 398.0 PA - 114.07 JA Points
7. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 346.0 PA - 105.09 JA Points
8. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
9. Will Smith (LAD) - 326.0 PA - 104.17 JA Points
10. D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) - 369.0 PA - 101.14 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 113.5mph - home_run
Elias Diaz (COL) - 111.8mph - double
Hunter Renfroe (MIL) - 111.6mph - home_run
Andrew Vaughn (CWS) - 110.7mph - single
Cedric Mullins II (BAL) - 110.1mph - foul
Christian Walker (ARI) - 110.1mph - sac_fly
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) - 110.0mph - single
Nelson Cruz (WSH) - 109.9mph - field_out
Elias Diaz (COL) - 109.4mph - foul
Rowdy Tellez (MIL) - 109.4mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Yordan Alvarez - 44 PA, 25 BIP, 9 Brls, 36.0 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 73 PA, 40 BIP, 12 Brls, 30.0 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 62 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 66 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Darick Hall - 51 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Franmil Reyes - 67 PA, 42 BIP, 9 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Ramon Laureano - 72 PA, 43 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.9 Brl%
Darin Ruf - 42 PA, 25 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Christopher Morel - 56 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Jorge Polanco - 61 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Juan Soto - 58 PA, 0.54 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 68 PA, 0.524 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 73 PA, 0.472 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 69 PA, 0.468 xwOBA
Austin Riley - 74 PA, 0.456 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 44 PA, 0.456 xwOBA
Ketel Marte - 59 PA, 0.454 xwOBA
Kris Bryant - 58 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
Carson Kelly - 43 PA, 0.444 xwOBA
J.T. Realmuto - 48 PA, 0.433 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 57 PA, 83 Swings, 95.2 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 61 PA, 93 Swings, 93.5 Cont%
Myles Straw - 59 PA, 93 Swings, 93.5 Cont%
Ty France - 45 PA, 86 Swings, 93.0 Cont%
Juan Soto - 58 PA, 72 Swings, 91.7 Cont%
Joey Wendle - 60 PA, 103 Swings, 91.3 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 52 PA, 99 Swings, 90.9 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 79 PA, 126 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 53 PA, 90 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 69 PA, 98 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Hicks - 54 PA, 18.5 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Austin Riley - 74 PA, 18.9 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Corey Seager - 69 PA, 8.7 K%, 15.5 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 48 PA, 18.8 K%, 14.7 Brl%
Jorge Polanco - 61 PA, 19.7 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Juan Soto - 58 PA, 5.2 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Ketel Marte - 59 PA, 8.5 K%, 15.2 Brl%
LaMonte Wade Jr. - 48 PA, 16.7 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 61 PA, 19.7 K%, 15.9 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Juan Soto - 0.559 xwOBA, 14.7% Brl%, 94.5% Contact%, 18.2% Chase%, 0.0% K%
Matt Carpenter - 0.454 xwOBA, 16.0% Brl%, 84.1% Contact%, 16.8% Chase%, 14.6% K%
Yoan Moncada - 0.376 xwOBA, 10.0% Brl%, 79.5% Contact%, 24.5% Chase%, 22.2% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Trey Mancini - 33.3% Whiff%, 87.0% Weak%, 0.94 Cold Rating
Eugenio Suarez - 34.6% Whiff%, 72.2% Weak%, 0.915 Cold Rating
Giancarlo Stanton - 34.2% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.908 Cold Rating
Adolis Garcia - 35.4% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.896 Cold Rating
Jonathan Schoop - 30.6% Whiff%, 78.6% Weak%, 0.871 Cold Rating
Kole Calhoun - 45.2% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.858 Cold Rating
Michael Harris II - 35.5% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.833 Cold Rating
Pete Alonso - 26.1% Whiff%, 78.6% Weak%, 0.815 Cold Rating
Gleyber Torres - 30.2% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.806 Cold Rating
Javier Baez - 27.1% Whiff%, 71.9% Weak%, 0.798 Cold Rating
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