MLB Daily Notes: Sunday, July 24
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
Steven Matz wasted no time on his return, topping the CSW% board and putting up a stupid 21.1% SwStr% in his first start since May 17th. He’s had a weirdly great season with a 27.4% K% and a 4.8% BB%. The reason it’s weird is that he’s been around for so long with a career K% at 22%.
The logical thing to check would be to see if the arsenal is different this year, and the answer is - not much:
You see decreased sinker usage, but just slightly so. Decreasing your sinker usage is a good way to add more strikeouts since the sinker is the hardest pitch to get a whiff on, but it comes at the cost of ground-balls and often command as well.
He is still ~mostly~ a sinker pitcher:
But a 14.1% SwStr% on the pitch what whaaat? Not making sense alert!
Let’s take #ToTheDash and find the league-leaders in sinker swinging-strike rate:
So he’s right there with Hader and Holmes, and besting every other starter by almost two full points.
This is #NotNormal for Matz, here’s the plot of his WHIFF RATE (whiffs per SWINGS, not whiffs per PITCH) on the sinker throughout his career:
The velocity is the same on the pitch, but it’s getting much more spin this year, but the movement marks aren’t all that different than the last couple of years. So I don’t know, it deserves a closer look by someone better with the crazy granular statcast pitcher marks than me to see if this increase is legitimate. Please feel free to take this and run with it, whoever wants to! For now, Matz may be worth a pick-up.
Brady Singer went for 17 whiffs and a season-best 12 strikeouts (previous best was nine strikeouts) against the Rays, who will do that. They really are a bottom-ten offense right now. I’ve liked Singer at times this year as he’s put up some pretty nice K-BB% marks, but the K% had been on the downtrend recently so I had kind of given up. I’m not sure this start should change anything, but his K-BB% is now back up to a really strong 19% mark with a GB% of 49%, but a bad SwStr% of 10.5%. He’s fine for deep leagues and it’s good to see this strikeout ability present again, but he’s not someone you need to worry about in normal-sized leagues, I don’t think.
Julio Urias was really feeling his neck tattoos last night as he increased his average fastball velocity by 1.8 miles per hour - a freaking huge change. But that didn’t manifest itself in more whiffs as he posted a SwStr% very undeserving of commemorative neck tattoo at 7.7%. I mean Jose Urena beat him at 9.2% yesterday. So maybe you’re better off soft-tossing there, Julio!
I have come out of the All-Star Break like a champ on DraftKings, winning 39 of 40 head-to-head with the two main slate lineups I’ve put out. Since I turned up the projection model this week, it has me believing that clearly I have just perfected the art of baseball projecting and I will never lose a DFS contest again. This will cause me to increase my bets and lose all of the money I’ve won in short order.
The model put me on the Kyle Wright play, who scored 25.3 points at $9100. Cole & Woodruff were a very popular combo, and Woody did outscore Wright but it was close enough to say that Wright was worth the $1000 savings. The keys to the lineup were a Bobby Witt Jr. 30-burger (which the model admittedly didn’t love, but I got on him after I saw the weather report for Kansas City), an Aaron Judge 25, and an Alek Thomas 17 (the model really loved Judge and Thomas, which is a “duh” for Judge but I mean it had him like 1.5 points above everyone else so I jammed him in).
So that’s fun stuff. If you’re looking to get my projections for the rest of the year but don’t want to pay the ~full~ price here, DM me on Twitter and we can work something out. $20 for the rest of the season of projections should work just fine, I’m a caring guy, you know?
Alright that’s it and that’s all, here’s the automated report - enjoy your Sundays!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Steven Matz (STL): 21.1 SwStr%, 41.1 CSW%
2. Chris Bassitt (NYM): 11.2 SwStr%, 39.3 CSW%
3. Brady Singer (KC): 18.1 SwStr%, 38.3 CSW%
4. Brandon Woodruff (MIL): 17.0 SwStr%, 37.0 CSW%
5. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 14.3 SwStr%, 34.8 CSW%
6. Kyle Wright (ATL): 18.0 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
7. Madison Bumgarner (ARI): 14.3 SwStr%, 31.6 CSW%
8. Joe Ryan (MIN): 11.6 SwStr%, 31.4 CSW%
9. Jose Urena (COL): 9.2 SwStr%, 31.0 CSW%
10. Lance Lynn (CWS): 12.6 SwStr%, 29.9 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Brady Singer - 6.0 IP - 79.75 JA Points
2. Steven Matz - 5.33 IP - 77.25 JA Points
3. Brandon Woodruff - 6.0 IP - 76.25 JA Points
4. Madison Bumgarner - 8.0 IP - 73.5 JA Points
5. Chris Bassitt - 7.0 IP - 72.0 JA Points
6. Zack Wheeler - 6.67 IP - 65.0 JA Points
7. Logan Gilbert - 6.0 IP - 61.0 JA Points
8. Alek Manoah - 6.0 IP - 60.0 JA Points
9. Justin Verlander - 7.0 IP - 58.5 JA Points
10. Lance Lynn - 6.0 IP - 55.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 10 GS - 56.37 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 18 GS - 55.14 JA Points
3. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 19 GS - 54.52 JA Points
4. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 19 GS - 53.65 JA Points
5. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 16 GS - 53.22 JA Points
6. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 12 GS - 50.96 JA Points
7. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 14 GS - 49.71 JA Points
8. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 20 GS - 47.83 JA Points
9. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 19 GS - 46.88 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 14 GS - 46.08 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Taylor Hearn's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 86.6
Joe Ryan's SL velo (20 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 83.7
Chris Bassitt's SL velo (11 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 80.6
Steven Matz's CU velo (14 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 79.5
Julio Urias's FF velo (47 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 94.6
Julio Urias's CU velo (27 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 82.2
Julio Urias's CH velo (16 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 87.4
James Kaprielian's SL velo (24 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 84.2
Anibal Sanchez's CH velo (28 pitches) DOWN -2.9mph to 78.9
Luis Patino's SL velo (16 pitches) DOWN -3.4mph to 82.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alex Wood's SL usage (49.5%) up 15.8 points
Anibal Sanchez's FC usage (37.6%) up 20.9 points
Jordan Lyles's FF usage (45.5%) up 13.7 points
Jose Urena's SI usage (66.7%) up 11.4 points
Kutter Crawford's CU usage (28.6%) up 14.9 points
Logan Gilbert's CU usage (28.1%) up 15.7 points
Luis Patino's CH usage (20.8%) up 16.5 points
Marcus Stroman's SI usage (48.8%) up 16.0 points
Michael Pineda's CH usage (29.1%) up 10.8 points
Ryan Yarbrough's SI usage (43.2%) up 26.3 points
Ryan Yarbrough's CU usage (32.4%) up 10.1 points
Triston McKenzie's SL usage (35.1%) up 15.0 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 77 TBF, 39.1% CSW%
Max Scherzer - 97 TBF, 38.7% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Jose Berrios - 73 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Brandon Woodruff - 98 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Kyle Wright - 100 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 72 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Chris Bassitt - 76 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Robbie Ray - 73 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 77 TBF, 42.9% K%
Robbie Ray - 73 TBF, 41.1% K%
Max Scherzer - 97 TBF, 40.2% K%
Jose Berrios - 73 TBF, 35.6% K%
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 35.3% K%
Justin Verlander - 77 TBF, 35.1% K%
Dylan Cease - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%
Corbin Burnes - 74 TBF, 33.8% K%
Brady Singer - 96 TBF, 33.3% K%
Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 32.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Max Scherzer - 97 TBF, 38.1% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 73 TBF, 35.6% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 77 TBF, 35.1% K-BB%
Jose Berrios - 73 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Justin Verlander - 77 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Clayton Kershaw - 78 TBF, 29.5% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%
Sandy Alcantara - 81 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Alex Wood - 80 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Jon Gray - 97 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 85 TBF, 72.5% GB%
Alex Cobb - 79 TBF, 66.1% GB%
Andre Pallante - 69 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Brad Keller - 71 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Justin Steele - 75 TBF, 58.0% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 81 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Jose Urena - 100 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 78 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Logan Webb - 101 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 70 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Wood - 80 TBF, 31.2 K%, 3.8 BB%, 53.8% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 91 TBF, 27.5 K%, 5.5 BB%, 49.2% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 70 TBF, 27.1 K%, 7.1 BB%, 55.6% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 78 TBF, 30.8 K%, 1.3 BB%, 56.6% GB%
Robbie Ray - 73 TBF, 41.1 K%, 5.5 BB%, 48.7% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 81 TBF, 32.1 K%, 3.7 BB%, 57.7% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 70 TBF, 30.0 K%, 5.7 BB%, 53.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Kyle Wright - +4.4% CSW%, -5.2 BB%
Max Scherzer - +5.9% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Mitch Keller - +3.3% CSW%, -6.7 BB%
Chris Bassitt - +3.9% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Jose Berrios - +5.7% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Jon Gray - +2.9% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Ross Stripling - +3.7% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Carlos Correa (MIN) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Eloy Jimenez (CWS) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Matt Olson (ATL) 4 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Tyler O'Neill (STL) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Carlos Correa - 5.0 PA - 61.0 JA Points
2. Mookie Betts - 4.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
3. Kolten Wong - 4.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
4. Paul Goldschmidt - 5.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
5. Tyler O'Neill - 5.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
6. Michael A. Taylor - 2.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
7. Austin Riley - 4.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
8. Shohei Ohtani - 4.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
9. Freddie Freeman - 4.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
10. Harold Castro - 4.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 324.0 PA - 152.84 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 401.0 PA - 127.48 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (WSH) - 397.0 PA - 125.54 JA Points
4. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 316.0 PA - 120.38 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 412.0 PA - 119.32 JA Points
6. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 407.0 PA - 112.83 JA Points
7. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 351.0 PA - 105.3 JA Points
8. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
9. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 400.0 PA - 104.0 JA Points
10. Will Smith (LAD) - 330.0 PA - 104.0 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Darick Hall (PHI) - 113.0mph - double
Victor Caratini (MIL) - 112.3mph - double
Sean Murphy (OAK) - 112.1mph - single
Albert Pujols (STL) - 111.7mph - double
Matt Olson (ATL) - 110.2mph - foul
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 110.2mph - home_run
Juan Soto (WSH) - 110.1mph - foul
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 109.9mph - single
MJ Melendez (KC) - 109.5mph - single
Jorge Polanco (MIN) - 109.4mph - foul
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Yordan Alvarez - 43 PA, 24 BIP, 9 Brls, 37.5 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 69 PA, 40 BIP, 12 Brls, 30.0 Brl%
Darick Hall - 54 PA, 32 BIP, 8 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 61 PA, 34 BIP, 8 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 62 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
C.J. Cron - 56 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Ramon Laureano - 72 PA, 42 BIP, 9 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
J.D. Martinez - 54 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Manny Machado - 67 PA, 44 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Brandon Belt - 46 PA, 31 BIP, 6 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Juan Soto - 58 PA, 0.522 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 68 PA, 0.512 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 69 PA, 0.496 xwOBA
Austin Riley - 73 PA, 0.483 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 69 PA, 0.479 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 43 PA, 0.457 xwOBA
Ketel Marte - 59 PA, 0.452 xwOBA
J.T. Realmuto - 47 PA, 0.44 xwOBA
Carson Kelly - 44 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Carlos Santana - 57 PA, 0.413 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 58 PA, 86 Swings, 95.3 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 62 PA, 96 Swings, 92.7 Cont%
Ty France - 49 PA, 95 Swings, 92.6 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 83 PA, 133 Swings, 92.5 Cont%
Myles Straw - 59 PA, 92 Swings, 92.4 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 52 PA, 97 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Joey Wendle - 64 PA, 108 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 53 PA, 104 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 64 PA, 93 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 54 PA, 89 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Hicks - 53 PA, 18.9 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Austin Riley - 73 PA, 19.2 K%, 17.9 Brl%
Corey Seager - 69 PA, 8.7 K%, 15.8 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 47 PA, 17.0 K%, 14.7 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 47 PA, 19.1 K%, 14.7 Brl%
Jorge Polanco - 62 PA, 17.7 K%, 19.4 Brl%
Ketel Marte - 59 PA, 8.5 K%, 15.6 Brl%
LaMonte Wade Jr. - 44 PA, 18.2 K%, 17.2 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Marcus Semien - +6.2% Contact%, +4.2 mph exit velo, -13.1 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Juan Soto - 0.494 xwOBA, 12.5% Brl%, 86.7% Contact%, 22.7% Chase%, 7.1% K%
Ketel Marte - 0.489 xwOBA, 18.2% Brl%, 89.9% Contact%, 24.4% Chase%, 4.9% K%
Matt Carpenter - 0.424 xwOBA, 16.0% Brl%, 84.1% Contact%, 14.3% Chase%, 12.5% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Franmil Reyes - 47.3% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.95 Cold Rating
Jake Meyers - 35.4% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.94 Cold Rating
Trey Mancini - 32.4% Whiff%, 86.4% Weak%, 0.934 Cold Rating
Eugenio Suarez - 38.3% Whiff%, 70.6% Weak%, 0.913 Cold Rating
Jonathan Schoop - 30.9% Whiff%, 75.9% Weak%, 0.876 Cold Rating
Giancarlo Stanton - 31.2% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.855 Cold Rating
Gleyber Torres - 27.6% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.843 Cold Rating
Brandon Drury - 27.8% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.843 Cold Rating
Brian Anderson - 32.2% Whiff%, 67.9% Weak%, 0.818 Cold Rating
Javier Baez - 27.7% Whiff%, 71.0% Weak%, 0.808 Cold Rating
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