MLB Daily Notes: Saturday, July 30
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
Aaron Judge now has nine multi-homer games, and has hit at least one homer in 32 of his 98 games. He’s on pace to clear 60 homers, which would be something to see.
Alex Cobb went for 11 strikeouts against the Cubs, finally putting it all together at once there. He will be back in the “SP Waiver Wire Picks” piece that comes out tomorrow, I think he’s been in there every week but one or two - I just can’t get enough (although I dropped him for Nick Lodolo in my home league and someone else picked him up, so I missed out on his season-best start there despite being on that horse all year long).
Added a new automated tweet that will publish every morning when I run the scripts, it finds two SP streamer recommendations for the day, looks like this:
I once again crushed in head-to-heads last night, going 48-12. I have something like an 85% win rate since the all-star break. That’s probably mostly just good luck, I’m not sure anybody can sustain a rate above like 65% or so, but it sure is fun to win - and the projections have really been on point lately.
I’ve gotta run - here are the goods!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Shane Bieber (CLE): 20.6 SwStr%, 42.3 CSW%
2. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 19.0 SwStr%, 38.0 CSW%
3. Alex Cobb (SF): 12.2 SwStr%, 35.6 CSW%
4. Brandon Woodruff (MIL): 18.8 SwStr%, 35.6 CSW%
5. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 14.8 SwStr%, 34.6 CSW%
6. Joe Ryan (MIN): 20.7 SwStr%, 34.1 CSW%
7. Bailey Falter (PHI): 15.0 SwStr%, 33.8 CSW%
8. Kyle Wright (ATL): 12.5 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
9. Jose Quintana (PIT): 15.7 SwStr%, 31.3 CSW%
10. Kris Bubic (KC): 14.8 SwStr%, 30.9 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Shane Bieber - 7.0 IP - 77.25 JA Points
2. Gerrit Cole - 6.0 IP - 76.75 JA Points
3. Alex Cobb - 6.0 IP - 73.5 JA Points
4. Brandon Woodruff - 6.33 IP - 71.5 JA Points
5. Kyle Bradish - 5.0 IP - 70.25 JA Points
6. Blake Snell - 6.0 IP - 67.0 JA Points
7. Martin Perez - 7.0 IP - 51.5 JA Points
8. Patrick Sandoval - 5.33 IP - 50.5 JA Points
9. Lance Lynn - 5.67 IP - 43.5 JA Points
10. Jose Quintana - 5.33 IP - 36.75 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 11 GS - 55.25 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 20 GS - 54.82 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 19 GS - 54.7 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 17 GS - 54.11 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 20 GS - 52.34 JA Points
6. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 15 GS - 50.26 JA Points
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 21 GS - 48.61 JA Points
8. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 20 GS - 47.75 JA Points
9. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 13 GS - 47.75 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 15 GS - 45.68 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Bailey Falter's SL velo (15 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 84.7
Madison Bumgarner's FC velo (34 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 86.1
Patrick Sandoval's CH velo (32 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 82.3
Mike Minor's CH velo (31 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 82.4
Mike Minor's CU velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 76.9
Anibal Sanchez's CU velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 74.3
James Kaprielian's SL velo (35 pitches) DOWN -2.9mph to 83.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bailey Falter's FF usage (43.8%) up 32.8 points
James Kaprielian's SL usage (41.2%) up 19.1 points
Jose Quintana's CU usage (39.8%) up 13.4 points
Julio Urias's FF usage (57.3%) up 11.0 points
Kyle Wright's CU usage (50.0%) up 17.3 points
Marcus Stroman's SI usage (49.5%) up 15.4 points
Marcus Stroman's FC usage (24.2%) up 10.4 points
Mike Minor's CH usage (36.9%) up 15.1 points
Miles Mikolas's CU usage (31.9%) up 12.8 points
Patrick Sandoval's CH usage (34.8%) up 10.2 points
Robbie Ray's SI usage (40.5%) up 23.9 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 75 TBF, 38.0% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 85 TBF, 37.3% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Max Scherzer - 105 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Brandon Woodruff - 100 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Brady Singer - 73 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Kyle Wright - 110 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 104 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 83 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Jose Berrios - 75 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 75 TBF, 45.3% K%
Brady Singer - 73 TBF, 38.4% K%
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 37.3% K%
Jose Berrios - 75 TBF, 36.0% K%
Corbin Burnes - 74 TBF, 35.1% K%
Carlos Rodon - 104 TBF, 34.6% K%
Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 32.8% K%
Braxton Garrett - 89 TBF, 32.6% K%
Max Scherzer - 105 TBF, 32.4% K%
Yu Darvish - 109 TBF, 32.1% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 75 TBF, 41.3% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 34.3% K-BB%
Jose Berrios - 75 TBF, 32.0% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 105 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 74 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 67 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Brady Singer - 73 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Clayton Kershaw - 74 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Braxton Garrett - 89 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Justin Verlander - 78 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 87 TBF, 67.7% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 67 TBF, 64.6% GB%
Logan Webb - 99 TBF, 62.9% GB%
Alex Wood - 86 TBF, 60.7% GB%
Justin Steele - 67 TBF, 60.4% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 67 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Kyle Freeland - 71 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Alex Cobb - 103 TBF, 59.4% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 77 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Brad Keller - 72 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 83 TBF, 28.9 K%, 2.4 BB%, 47.4% GB%
Alex Wood - 86 TBF, 27.9 K%, 5.8 BB%, 60.7% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 74 TBF, 29.7 K%, 2.7 BB%, 56.0% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Max Scherzer - +2.7% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Gerrit Cole - +2.7% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Shane Bieber - +2.9% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Aaron Nola - +2.1% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Kyle Wright - +2.4% CSW%, -5.4 BB%
Merrill Kelly - +2.5% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Shohei Ohtani - +6.2% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Jose Berrios - +4.2% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Dylan Cease - +2.9% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Mitch Keller - +3.9% CSW%, -7.6 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +6.0% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Nestor Cortes - +2.4% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Jaime Barria - +2.3% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.3% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Matt Moore - +3.1% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Austin Riley (ATL) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Aaron Judge (NYY) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Aledmys Diaz (HOU) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Brandon Nimmo (NYM) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Eloy Jimenez (CWS) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 3 Barrels, 0 HR
Luke Voit (SD) 4 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Seth Brown (OAK) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Will Smith (LAD) 5 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Will Smith - 5.0 PA - 70.0 JA Points
2. Aledmys Diaz - 5.0 PA - 70.0 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge - 5.0 PA - 63.0 JA Points
4. Mauricio Dubon - 5.0 PA - 60.0 JA Points
5. Austin Riley - 4.0 PA - 60.0 JA Points
6. Jose Ramirez - 4.0 PA - 60.0 JA Points
7. Yordan Alvarez - 5.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
8. J.T. Realmuto - 5.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
9. Patrick Wisdom - 4.0 PA - 57.0 JA Points
10. Rhys Hoskins - 5.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 343.0 PA - 160.93 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 425.0 PA - 133.36 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (WSH) - 420.0 PA - 120.48 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 438.0 PA - 118.81 JA Points
5. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 333.0 PA - 117.84 JA Points
6. Will Smith (LAD) - 352.0 PA - 106.93 JA Points
7. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 408.0 PA - 106.18 JA Points
8. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
9. D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) - 394.0 PA - 102.54 JA Points
10. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 366.0 PA - 102.08 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 115.9mph - double_play
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 114.4mph - single
Byron Buxton (MIN) - 113.5mph - home_run
Austin Riley (ATL) - 113.3mph - double
Bobby Dalbec (BOS) - 113.2mph - single
Seth Brown (OAK) - 112.2mph - home_run
Christian Walker (ARI) - 111.9mph - field_out
Seth Brown (OAK) - 111.5mph - home_run
Riley Greene (DET) - 111.3mph - double
Eloy Jimenez (CWS) - 111.3mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 43 BIP, 15 Brls, 34.9 Brl%
Austin Riley - 68 PA, 51 BIP, 17 Brls, 33.3 Brl%
Luke Voit - 59 PA, 36 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Bobby Dalbec - 54 PA, 28 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 58 PA, 30 BIP, 7 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Ramon Laureano - 71 PA, 43 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 45 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
J.D. Martinez - 48 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Nolan Jones - 56 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 48 PA, 26 BIP, 5 Brls, 19.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Austin Riley - 68 PA, 0.582 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 0.558 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 69 PA, 0.534 xwOBA
J.T. Realmuto - 45 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 66 PA, 0.428 xwOBA
Alec Bohm - 51 PA, 0.423 xwOBA
D.J. LeMahieu - 73 PA, 0.418 xwOBA
Josh Bell - 67 PA, 0.416 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 65 PA, 0.411 xwOBA
Kris Bryant - 58 PA, 0.41 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 85 PA, 136 Swings, 94.1 Cont%
Myles Straw - 63 PA, 101 Swings, 93.1 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 57 PA, 110 Swings, 92.7 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 59 PA, 100 Swings, 92.0 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 61 PA, 103 Swings, 91.3 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 49 PA, 87 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 78 PA, 134 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Alec Bohm - 51 PA, 103 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 63 PA, 100 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Carlos Santana - 59 PA, 106 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Austin Riley - 68 PA, 19.1 K%, 33.3 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 45 PA, 15.6 K%, 21.9 Brl%
Jorge Polanco - 55 PA, 16.4 K%, 15.2 Brl%
Ketel Marte - 63 PA, 11.1 K%, 16.3 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Harold Castro - +6.9% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -5.3 Chase%
Luis Rengifo - +8.4% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -3.8 Chase%
Jonathan India - +5.4% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -8.9 Chase%
Josh Rojas - +3.5% Contact%, +6.1 mph exit velo, -8.8 Chase%
Austin Riley - +8.4% Contact%, +8.9 mph exit velo, -7.7 Chase%
Andrew Knizner - +14.0% Contact%, +4.1 mph exit velo, -7.3 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Freddie Freeman - 0.465 xwOBA, 10.5% Brl%, 86.4% Contact%, 24.7% Chase%, 4.3% K%
Josh Bell - 0.437 xwOBA, 10.0% Brl%, 80.0% Contact%, 10.7% Chase%, 11.6% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Trey Mancini - 38.8% Whiff%, 82.6% Weak%, 0.985 Cold Rating
Eugenio Suarez - 35.1% Whiff%, 73.7% Weak%, 0.917 Cold Rating
Ryan Mountcastle - 31.2% Whiff%, 77.4% Weak%, 0.915 Cold Rating
Joey Votto - 32.3% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.848 Cold Rating
Nick Castellanos - 34.3% Whiff%, 68.8% Weak%, 0.833 Cold Rating
Cody Bellinger - 28.4% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.831 Cold Rating
C.J. Cron - 27.3% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.825 Cold Rating
Javier Baez - 30.9% Whiff%, 69.2% Weak%, 0.808 Cold Rating
Max Muncy - 29.7% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.801 Cold Rating
Cedric Mullins II - 26.8% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.799 Cold Rating
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