MLB Daily Notes: Saturday, June 18
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
Well, the playground didn’t actually come yesterday, it’s coming next Friday now - so that’s good, I guess. Now I have a full week to recruit the help I need to get that done next weekend, but then my kids will have another thing to entertain them that isn’t me and my wife!
Speaking of the kids, I put up a really dark blanket over my son’s window and that along with the fact that he’s getting older has resulted in him sleeping straight from 7:30-7:30 - it’s glorious. I ran 4 miles this morning, showered, and got a lot of this stuff done before he got up. It’s great. So today’s shout-out goes to baby Lee and my sick blanket-over-window idea.
It probably has more to do with just him getting older. They say “they grow up so fast”, which I’ve found not to be true. But mathematically, it kind of is true. Every day right now is something like 0.2% of his life so far. For me, it’s 0.008%. So you could say that in that way that he’s growing up faster than me. But I have come to really prefer the 2-4 year-old stage over the 0-2. Like if there was a button I could hit to have my third baby come out of there as a two-year old, I’d hit that button (so long as somehow my wife didn’t know that I did).
I say this stuff and then people tell me “you’ll miss these days later on!” But okay, so what? What am I supposed to do with that? Even if you’re right, what am I to do today about that? It’s like when you’re a kid and you don’t finish your dinner and your parents would say “you’d better finish that cause there are kids in other countries going hungry!”. Like what? Talk about a non-sequitur. As if you eating food you don’t want here has anything to do with kids elsewhere. The proper response to a kid would be like “okay well you should send them the food you buy that you figure I won’t eat cause they’re hungrier than me”. I don’t think my parents ever said that specifically to me (I got my cynical, overly-literal, technical brain from my dad) - but if they ever had they would’ve been #destroyed with #facts and #logic.
Okay, we can do baseball stuff now.
In case you missed it yesterday, we have a sweet new daily resource that gives you hitter matchup analysis based on pitcher similarity. Full details here, and the link to the updated spreadsheet is in the premium section.
I had a nice DFS lineup last night, although it ended up changing quite a bit after I sent out my analysis piece. Harper was out and my projections really downgraded Skubal and upgraded Ray after the lineups came out, so I ended up with this:
SP: Robbie Ray 34.75
SP Jon Gray 28.75
C: Austin Wynns 2.00
1B: CJ Cron 37
2B: Brendan Rodgers 2
3B: Manny Machado 9
SS: Trea Turner 11
OF: Kyle Schwarber 13
OF: Lane Thomas 0
OF: Luis Gonzalez 16
Total: 153.3
That was good for a $35 cash (+$20 net) in the Relay Throw and I took 13th out of 919 in the double-up.
I am tracking my results now as I play both contests (the huge $15 Relay Throw and a $5 Single Entry Double-Up) every day when there’s a big enough slate and I have some time to get into it.
So far we’re 3/4 in cashing the double-ups and 2/4 in the Relay Throw, and we’re +$10.
Pitcher Notes
Charlie Morton is BACK
His curveball has been absolutely sick lately, posting CSW% rates of 53.3%, 47.2%, and 48.6% over his last three starts.
He’s piled up 18, 24, and 21 whiffs in those three starts - the top three marks of his season.
Carlos Rodon takes advantage of the matchup
His 18.4% SwStr% should ease the tension a bit even against the Pirates. He had really not been getting many whiffs in his last five (relative to what we expect from him anyways), so it was good to see that he had the swing-and-miss stuff again. We also see below that he used his slider way more yesterday - which makes sense that it would lead to more whiffs.
Shane Baz looks impressive
18.4% SwStr%, 14 whiffs, seven strike outs and no walks while facing 21 hitters.
On the hitting side, Josh Bell did plenty of damage in the double-header, hitting three bombs on four barrels in 8 PA. His name hasn’t shown up much at all on these notes this year, but the guy is hitting an impressive .299/.373/.485 with 11 homers now, he’s just been having that same old problem of hitting too many ground balls (48%), which has kept the barrel rate down below 8%. He’s certainly a top 12 or so fantasy 1B right now, but if he can start lifting the ball a little more he could bust into the top five.
Jarren Duran also had a nice game and has been the Sox leadoff hitter against righties. He’s put up some good numbers in 22 PAs, but is still striking out a ton (eight strikeouts for a 36% rate) and making contact at a horrible rate (60%). I wouldn’t expect much good from him while those numbers stick around.
Adolis Garcia qualifies as “hot” below. He has a much more manageable 27% K% this year with a 10% Brl% and a .245 batting average with his dozen homers. He’s still got plenty of work to do, but it’s encouraging to see the K% under 30%.
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Charlie Morton (ATL): 22.3 SwStr%, 39.4 CSW%
2. Carlos Rodon (SF): 18.4 SwStr%, 36.7 CSW%
3. Eric Lauer (MIL): 8.8 SwStr%, 34.1 CSW%
4. Framber Valdez (HOU): 15.4 SwStr%, 34.1 CSW%
5. Daniel Lynch (KC): 23.2 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
6. Pablo Lopez (MIA): 21.4 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
7. Keegan Thompson (CHC): 19.6 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
8. Jordan Montgomery (NYY): 16.1 SwStr%, 32.3 CSW%
9. Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 16.0 SwStr%, 32.1 CSW%
10. Shane Baz (TB): 18.4 SwStr%, 31.6 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Charlie Morton - 7.0 IP - 99.0 JA Points
2. Daniel Lynch - 5.0 IP - 83.75 JA Points
3. Robbie Ray - 7.0 IP - 75.5 JA Points
4. Carlos Rodon - 8.0 IP - 73.0 JA Points
5. Jon Gray - 6.67 IP - 68.75 JA Points
6. Keegan Thompson - 6.0 IP - 67.25 JA Points
7. Shane Baz - 6.0 IP - 63.0 JA Points
8. Framber Valdez - 5.67 IP - 60.5 JA Points
9. Carlos Carrasco - 6.33 IP - 53.5 JA Points
10. Clayton Kershaw - 5.0 IP - 52.75 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 13 GS - 56.35 JA Points
2. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 4 GS - 54.7 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 13 GS - 53.63 JA Points
4. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 13 GS - 51.5 JA Points
5. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 8 GS - 49.99 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 13 GS - 47.77 JA Points
7. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 8 GS - 46.64 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8 GS - 46.36 JA Points
9. Luis Severino (NYY) - 11 GS - 45.82 JA Points
10. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 9 GS - 45.62 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Shane Baz's CU velo (13 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 82.8
Daniel Lynch's CH velo (16 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 86.7
Joan Adon's CU velo (19 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 81.3
Michael Wacha's FC velo (17 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 90.3
Daniel Lynch's SL velo (33 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 87.2
Carlos Rodon's FF velo (51 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 94.8
Michael Lorenzen's FC velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 89.2
Eric Lauer's SL velo (20 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 85.7
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bailey Falter's SL usage (34.6%) up 10.1 points
Carlos Rodon's SL usage (44.9%) up 15.8 points
Casey Lawrence's CH usage (32.7%) up 15.8 points
Dean Kremer's CH usage (24.4%) up 12.7 points
Devin Smeltzer's CU usage (38.5%) up 16.3 points
Framber Valdez's CU usage (42.9%) up 13.7 points
Jordan Montgomery's FC usage (17.2%) up 11.5 points
Keegan Thompson's FF usage (52.2%) up 11.6 points
Kyle Freeland's CH usage (26.8%) up 12.3 points
MacKenzie Gore's CU usage (30.4%) up 13.0 points
Robbie Ray's SI usage (48.0%) up 42.1 points
Shane Baz's CU usage (17.1%) up 12.9 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane Bieber - 100 TBF, 36.8% CSW%
Aaron Ashby - 96 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 94 TBF, 36.1% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 99 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Logan Webb - 99 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 105 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Corey Kluber - 87 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Tyler Mahle - 106 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Kyle Wright - 77 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 81 TBF, 38.3% K%
Hunter Greene - 79 TBF, 36.7% K%
Charlie Morton - 94 TBF, 36.2% K%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 35.9% K%
Tyler Mahle - 106 TBF, 34.0% K%
Gerrit Cole - 86 TBF, 33.7% K%
Shane McClanahan - 99 TBF, 31.3% K%
Jon Gray - 100 TBF, 31.0% K%
Chris Bassitt - 94 TBF, 29.8% K%
Carlos Rodon - 91 TBF, 29.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Hunter Greene - 79 TBF, 31.6% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 94 TBF, 29.8% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 99 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 28.3% K-BB%
Tyler Mahle - 106 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 86 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 100 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 81 TBF, 25.9% K-BB%
Jose Berrios - 94 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%
Sandy Alcantara - 115 TBF, 24.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 106 TBF, 71.4% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 93 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Justin Steele - 78 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Max Fried - 101 TBF, 61.6% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 115 TBF, 60.5% GB%
Aaron Ashby - 96 TBF, 59.0% GB%
Dane Dunning - 93 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 77 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Alex Wood - 90 TBF, 53.8% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 96 TBF, 29.2 K%, 6.2 BB%, 59.0% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 101 TBF, 28.7 K%, 7.9 BB%, 50.8% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 86 TBF, 33.7 K%, 7.0 BB%, 49.0% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 105 TBF, 28.6 K%, 7.6 BB%, 53.0% GB%
Logan Webb - 99 TBF, 28.3 K%, 6.1 BB%, 52.3% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 115 TBF, 28.7 K%, 4.3 BB%, 60.5% GB%
Shane Bieber - 100 TBF, 29.0 K%, 3.0 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Walker Buehler - 54 TBF, 29.6 K%, 5.6 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 28.1 K%, 4.2 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Tyler Mahle - +2.2% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Zach Davies - +3.6% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Kyle Wright - +2.7% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Shane Bieber - +4.2% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Corey Kluber - +3.0% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Josh Bell (WSH) 8 PA, 11 Swings, 4 Barrels, 3 HR
A.J. Pollock (CWS) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
C.J. Cron (COL) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Matt Vierling (PHI) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Salvador Perez (KC) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Xander Bogaerts (BOS) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Josh Bell - 4.0 PA - 85.0 JA Points
2. Matt Vierling - 4.0 PA - 69.0 JA Points
3. C.J. Cron - 5.0 PA - 57.0 JA Points
4. Luis Gonzalez - 4.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
5. Nolan Arenado - 4.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
6. Bryce Harper - 5.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
7. Anthony Rizzo - 5.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
8. Jordan Luplow - 4.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
9. Yordan Alvarez - 4.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
10. Salvador Perez - 5.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 243.0 PA - 151.11 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 268.0 PA - 134.48 JA Points
3. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 257.0 PA - 130.74 JA Points
4. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 278.0 PA - 123.02 JA Points
5. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 199.0 PA - 120.2 JA Points
6. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 175.0 PA - 120.0 JA Points
7. Will Smith (LAD) - 205.0 PA - 111.02 JA Points
8. Juan Soto (WSH) - 290.0 PA - 109.66 JA Points
9. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 227.0 PA - 109.6 JA Points
10. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 257.0 PA - 108.64 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 117.4mph - single
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 115.0mph - foul
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 115.0mph - single
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 114.6mph - field_out
Bryce Harper (PHI) - 114.3mph - double
Matt Davidson (OAK) - 114.2mph - foul
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 113.2mph - single
Byron Buxton (MIN) - 113.0mph - home_run
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 112.7mph - field_out
Cal Raleigh (SEA) - 112.2mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Kyle Schwarber - 94 PA, 51 BIP, 14 Brls, 27.5 Brl%
Christian Bethancourt - 49 PA, 34 BIP, 9 Brls, 26.5 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 79 PA, 54 BIP, 14 Brls, 25.9 Brl%
Jake Burger - 61 PA, 42 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.8 Brl%
Jazz Chisholm - 73 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%
Gary Sanchez - 56 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 56 PA, 28 BIP, 6 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
William Contreras - 48 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 73 PA, 46 BIP, 9 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 85 PA, 59 BIP, 11 Brls, 18.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 60 PA, 87 Swings, 94.3 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 68 PA, 118 Swings, 92.4 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 75 PA, 103 Swings, 91.3 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 63 PA, 113 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 79 PA, 150 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 65 PA, 112 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 76 PA, 110 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Myles Straw - 77 PA, 114 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 78 PA, 135 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 78 PA, 125 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Alejandro Kirk - 66 PA, 10.6 K%, 16.0 Brl%
Andres Gimenez - 61 PA, 19.7 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 79 PA, 12.7 K%, 15.5 Brl%
Gleyber Torres - 57 PA, 17.5 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Jose Abreu - 85 PA, 15.3 K%, 15.5 Brl%
Juan Soto - 89 PA, 19.1 K%, 14.5 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 74 PA, 18.9 K%, 17.3 Brl%
Nick Gordon - 49 PA, 14.3 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 88 PA, 15.9 K%, 15.3 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 78 PA, 19.2 K%, 17.9 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 84 PA, 15.5 K%, 17.5 Brl%
Will Smith - 70 PA, 12.9 K%, 17.0 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 78 PA, 9.0 K%, 18.0 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Adolis Garcia - +11.1% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -3.2 Chase%
Paul Goldschmidt - +8.6% Contact%, +4.4 mph exit velo, -9.0 Chase%
Brandon Drury - +8.5% Contact%, +3.2 mph exit velo, -6.2 Chase%
Alex Bregman - +4.4% Contact%, +3.8 mph exit velo, -3.4 Chase%
Jorge Alfaro - +13.9% Contact%, +5.6 mph exit velo, -5.4 Chase%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Michael Chavis - 40.6% Whiff%, 76.9% Weak%, 0.973 Cold Rating
Javier Baez - 41.2% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.918 Cold Rating
Julio Rodriguez - 37.0% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.912 Cold Rating
Jonathan Schoop - 35.7% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.866 Cold Rating
Willi Castro - 30.9% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.853 Cold Rating
Cody Bellinger - 32.0% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.832 Cold Rating
Patrick Wisdom - 32.0% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.832 Cold Rating
Daulton Varsho - 29.5% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.815 Cold Rating
Abraham Toro - 27.4% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.81 Cold Rating
Ezequiel Duran - 34.0% Whiff%, 67.6% Weak%, 0.798 Cold Rating
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