MLB Daily Notes: Saturday, June 4
I decided on a whim to tweet out the projections’ top homer picks last night and accidentally made myself look like a genius.
Votto, Cruz, Alonso, Vlad, and Garlick (x2) all went yard. It was a good night to predict any hitter to hit a home run, as the league smashed 57 homers last night, beating the previous single-day high by 11.
It’s hard to understate how much of a role chance has in life, most things in your life are influenced at least a bit by randomness. I’ve run insanely hot in life in that regard, being born to two loving, financially stable parents, finding some really great life-long friends early on in my life, stumbling across an amazing wife, being healthy and able to have kids, having a brain and temperament that work well enough to get me a job that I can support a big family with, and then the important stuff - winning $50,000 on DraftKings this year and making sick HR picks on Twitter last night.
You know the phrase “make your own luck”? Well that phrase is bullshit. If there is any external influence, it definitionally cannot be considered “luck”. You can’t make luck, if you make it - it’s not luck. It’s like talking about a three-sided square. It’s impossible. Don’t say that phrase.
All that offense and the Coors game went into extra innings scoreless. Max Fried had his best start of the year throwing eight scoreless, but he doesn’t show up in the top 10 CSW% leaders with just a mark of 25%.
Shane Bieber was the man of the day with a 41% CSW% and a 23.5% SwStr%. The slider and curveball were both dominant, and he went for a season-best 11 strikeouts and 23 whiffs (his second-best performance there). Good to see him looking a bit more ace-like, but it was against the Orioles so get out your grains of salt.
Kyle Schwarber bombed twice, walked, and didn’t strike out. He’s been bringing the strikeouts down and the hard-hit balls up the last few days, so maybe he has shaken off the dust and will start providing the power numbers you drafted him for.
Okay on with the show!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Shane Bieber (CLE): 23.5 SwStr%, 40.8 CSW%
2. Brady Singer (KC): 12.5 SwStr%, 34.7 CSW%
3. Dane Dunning (TEX): 15.1 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
4. Marcus Stroman (CHC): 13.3 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
5. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 16.7 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
6. Josiah Gray (WSH): 16.5 SwStr%, 33.0 CSW%
7. Shane McClanahan (TB): 13.0 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
8. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 11.6 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
9. Elieser Hernandez (MIA): 13.8 SwStr%, 31.9 CSW%
10. Mike Minor (CIN): 16.7 SwStr%, 31.7 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Shane Bieber - 7.0 IP - 88.25 JA Points
2. Gerrit Cole - 7.0 IP - 86.75 JA Points
3. Zach Eflin - 8.0 IP - 62.25 JA Points
4. Josiah Gray - 6.0 IP - 61.0 JA Points
5. Shane McClanahan - 6.0 IP - 58.5 JA Points
6. Tyler Anderson - 6.0 IP - 57.75 JA Points
7. Logan Gilbert - 6.0 IP - 56.0 JA Points
8. Nathan Eovaldi - 6.0 IP - 52.25 JA Points
9. Max Fried - 8.0 IP - 48.5 JA Points
10. Dane Dunning - 7.0 IP - 47.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 11 GS - 55.82 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 11 GS - 54.25 JA Points
3. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 10 GS - 50.23 JA Points
4. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 8 GS - 49.99 JA Points
5. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 11 GS - 49.74 JA Points
6. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 10 GS - 48.46 JA Points
7. Lucas Giolito (CWS) - 8 GS - 48.33 JA Points
8. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 9 GS - 47.26 JA Points
9. Alex Cobb (SF) - 8 GS - 46.79 JA Points
10. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8 GS - 46.36 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Elieser Hernandez's CH velo (15 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 86.0
Mark Leiter Jr.'s FC velo (12 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 88.6
Marcus Stroman's FC velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 87.3
Corbin Burnes's SL velo (14 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 85.6
Chad Kuhl's KC velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 77.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Brady Singer's SI usage (62.5%) up 13.4 points
Bruce Zimmermann's CU usage (23.0%) up 10.8 points
Davis Martin's SL usage (42.3%) up 22.5 points
Elvin Rodriguez's SL usage (40.9%) up 25.8 points
Joe Musgrove's FC usage (28.1%) up 12.4 points
Joe Musgrove's SI usage (18.4%) up 12.7 points
Josiah Gray's SL usage (44.0%) up 17.7 points
Marcus Stroman's FC usage (24.4%) up 11.4 points
Mark Leiter Jr.'s FF usage (35.9%) up 22.5 points
Merrill Kelly's FF usage (39.3%) up 10.0 points
Yusei Kikuchi's CH usage (29.9%) up 18.1 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane Bieber - 112 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Brady Singer - 96 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Tony Gonsolin - 86 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 105 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 103 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 98 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 95 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Tyler Anderson - 100 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 106 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Nathan Eovaldi - 95 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Frankie Montas - 82 TBF, 36.6% K%
Justin Steele - 78 TBF, 34.6% K%
Robbie Ray - 99 TBF, 33.3% K%
Gerrit Cole - 105 TBF, 33.3% K%
Shane McClanahan - 95 TBF, 32.6% K%
Cristian Javier - 84 TBF, 32.1% K%
Hunter Greene - 93 TBF, 31.2% K%
Aaron Nola - 103 TBF, 31.1% K%
Tony Gonsolin - 86 TBF, 30.2% K%
Tarik Skubal - 90 TBF, 30.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Frankie Montas - 82 TBF, 34.1% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 105 TBF, 30.5% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 95 TBF, 30.5% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 103 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Tony Gonsolin - 86 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 90 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%
Sandy Alcantara - 116 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Tyler Anderson - 100 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 77 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 99 TBF, 24.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 87 TBF, 60.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 77 TBF, 60.8% GB%
Kyle Wright - 94 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Martin Perez - 108 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 116 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Brady Singer - 96 TBF, 55.1% GB%
Patrick Corbin - 104 TBF, 55.0% GB%
Luis Castillo - 85 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 107 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Max Fried - 103 TBF, 53.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 66 TBF, 39.4 K%, 7.6 BB%, 68.6% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 105 TBF, 33.3 K%, 2.9 BB%, 46.3% GB%
Logan Webb - 77 TBF, 28.6 K%, 3.9 BB%, 60.8% GB%
Luis Castillo - 85 TBF, 27.1 K%, 5.9 BB%, 54.4% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 116 TBF, 29.3 K%, 4.3 BB%, 58.1% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 90 TBF, 30.0 K%, 4.4 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Tony Gonsolin - 86 TBF, 30.2 K%, 4.7 BB%, 46.4% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 76 TBF, 34.2 K%, 2.6 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Alek Thomas (ARI) 5 PA, 16 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
Bryce Harper (PHI) 4 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Cal Raleigh (SEA) 3 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Christian Walker (ARI) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Corey Dickerson (STL) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Kyle Garlick (MIN) 3 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Lane Thomas (WSH) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 3 HR
Xander Bogaerts (BOS) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Kyle Schwarber - 4.0 PA - 81.0 JA Points
2. Lane Thomas - 5.0 PA - 79.0 JA Points
3. Christian Walker - 5.0 PA - 71.0 JA Points
4. Alek Thomas - 5.0 PA - 68.0 JA Points
5. Kyle Garlick - 3.0 PA - 64.0 JA Points
6. Bryce Harper - 4.0 PA - 61.0 JA Points
7. Xander Bogaerts - 5.0 PA - 57.0 JA Points
8. Joc Pederson - 5.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
9. Aaron Judge - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
10. Matt Carpenter - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 204.0 PA - 142.35 JA Points
2. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 191.0 PA - 132.15 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 215.0 PA - 128.37 JA Points
4. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 158.0 PA - 127.85 JA Points
5. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 220.0 PA - 119.09 JA Points
6. Joc Pederson (SF) - 149.0 PA - 114.63 JA Points
7. Juan Soto (WSH) - 237.0 PA - 114.09 JA Points
8. Trey Mancini (BAL) - 214.0 PA - 110.65 JA Points
9. Mookie Betts (LAD) - 230.0 PA - 105.57 JA Points
10. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 152.0 PA - 104.47 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 114.4mph - home_run
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 112.6mph - home_run
Jorge Soler (MIA) - 112.2mph - nan
Gary Sanchez (MIN) - 111.8mph - single
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 111.6mph - home_run
Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 111.4mph - nan
Byron Buxton (MIN) - 111.4mph - double
Jack Suwinski (PIT) - 110.9mph - single
Josh Bell (WSH) - 110.9mph - single
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 110.7mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 79 PA, 45 BIP, 12 Brls, 26.7 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 65 PA, 43 BIP, 11 Brls, 25.6 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 80 PA, 39 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.6 Brl%
Evan Longoria - 60 PA, 37 BIP, 9 Brls, 24.3 Brl%
Trevor Story - 83 PA, 46 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.7 Brl%
Kole Calhoun - 85 PA, 57 BIP, 12 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Patrick Wisdom - 84 PA, 49 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.4 Brl%
Taylor Ward - 56 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Gary Sanchez - 77 PA, 50 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 81 PA, 55 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Jose Ramirez - 67 PA, 129 Swings, 93.8 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 51 PA, 81 Swings, 93.8 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 88 PA, 136 Swings, 92.6 Cont%
Myles Straw - 68 PA, 106 Swings, 91.5 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 64 PA, 130 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Michael Brantley - 72 PA, 92 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 74 PA, 119 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 86 PA, 152 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 53 PA, 81 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
D.J. LeMahieu - 64 PA, 105 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Bryce Harper - 56 PA, 14.3 K%, 14.9 Brl%
Christian Walker - 79 PA, 17.7 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Harold Castro - 47 PA, 17.0 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 65 PA, 16.9 K%, 25.6 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 85 PA, 20.0 K%, 16.9 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 72 PA, 18.1 K%, 17.0 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Frank Schwindel - +3.7% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -2.3 Chase%
Patrick Wisdom - +7.8% Contact%, +5.1 mph exit velo, -16.2 Chase%
Ryan Mountcastle - +7.4% Contact%, +6.0 mph exit velo, -7.7 Chase%
Kole Calhoun - +5.8% Contact%, +4.2 mph exit velo, -3.3 Chase%
Cedric Mullins II - +6.8% Contact%, +4.4 mph exit velo, -6.7 Chase%
Starling Marte - +4.3% Contact%, +6.8 mph exit velo, -10.4 Chase%
Paul Goldschmidt - +6.3% Contact%, +2.9 mph exit velo, -7.6 Chase%
Ramon Laureano - +10.1% Contact%, +10.5 mph exit velo, -9.9 Chase%
Andrew Benintendi - +2.6% Contact%, +4.2 mph exit velo, -2.2 Chase%
Hunter Dozier - +10.5% Contact%, +3.0 mph exit velo, -2.8 Chase%
Jose Ramirez - +11.7% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -5.1 Chase%
Myles Straw - +13.7% Contact%, +5.0 mph exit velo, -13.5 Chase%
Owen Miller - +6.7% Contact%, +2.9 mph exit velo, -3.4 Chase%
Cristian Pache - +10.3% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -19.1 Chase%
Josh Naylor - +13.0% Contact%, +4.8 mph exit velo, -12.8 Chase%
Bobby Dalbec - +10.2% Contact%, +7.6 mph exit velo, -8.0 Chase%
Victor Caratini - +3.2% Contact%, +5.5 mph exit velo, -7.2 Chase%
Chad Pinder - +16.9% Contact%, +4.1 mph exit velo, -7.6 Chase%
Riley Adams - +3.4% Contact%, +4.1 mph exit velo, -7.0 Chase%
Cal Raleigh - +3.6% Contact%, +10.9 mph exit velo, -9.3 Chase%
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