MLB Daily Notes: Saturday, May 21
Martin Perez threw a complete-game shutout against the Astros, as weird things just continue to happen. He has gone 49.1 innings without a home run allowed this year. That is sure to make him a very popular pick up this weekend, but we have to keep in mind that it’s Martin Perez. We have seen so, so much of this guy - and he’s gone on runs like this before. The K% is below 20%, the walk rate is really good but short of like completely elite at 6.3%. The GB% is up, and who knows maybe he’s just one of the weird beneficiaries of the new ball and humidors and all of that business?
I would certainly be picking Perez up if you need a pitcher, but I would also be actively shopping him to anybody who might be more willing to buy into the run he’s on. I just can’t imagine he turns out to be a guy that you start with confidence for the rest of the long season.
We got a triple doink from Josh Rojas in the early games, in case anybody missed that! He’s played just 14 games this year but is convincing us with a .289/.389/.489 line to go with a 16.7% K% and a big 14.8% BB%. Someone to add if he’s available, he’s also a very good source of steals so the floor is awfully high.
We have three strikeout props standing out on the first run, but they come with a big time disclaimer
Shane Bieber over 6.5 (-105 on DK)
Justin Verlander over 6.5 (-110 on DK)
Frankie Montas over 6.5 (-140 on FD)
The problem with those first two is that the model is relying on some data for 2020-2021 for Bieber, and hell it’s even looking the whole way back to 2019 for Verlander since that’s how far you have to go to get his last 30 starts.
Those two are not striking out batters at nearly the same rate as back in those seasons. But the model is way, way above the 6.5 line:
So even if we would subtract half a strikeout to account for the lower rates this year, we’re still well above - and you’re getting pretty close to even money on those two.
The Montas bet feels like a good one as well, even though he’s gone over 6.5 twice this year. He’s off of a 12 strikeout game so you know he can absolutely crush that number, and the Angels strike out a lot (sixth-most in the league against RHP). But the odds remove most if not all of the advantage, as we’re at -140 on FanDuel and -155 on DraftKings.
Not a ton of confidence in any of these for me!
Aaron Civale had a good start, albeit against the Tigers. He’s someone I’ve been expecting much better stuff from. The notes below reveal that he upped his sinker usage, so maybe that’s the secret sauce for him. The guy has six pitches and he’s been throwing five of them a ton this year, so he’s got a lot of ways to tinker with his arsenal. He’ll never be a fantasy stud but he can be a good source of wins, WHIP, and quality starts if he gets his command right.
Here are the rest of the notes and all of the other goodies.
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Chase Silseth (LAA): 14.0 SwStr%, 34.4 CSW%
2. Cristian Javier (HOU): 18.7 SwStr%, 34.1 CSW%
3. Charlie Morton (ATL): 11.5 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
4. Robbie Ray (SEA): 19.5 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
5. Eric Lauer (MIL): 10.8 SwStr%, 32.5 CSW%
6. Ryan Yarbrough (TB): 16.1 SwStr%, 32.1 CSW%
7. Tarik Skubal (DET): 7.6 SwStr%, 31.8 CSW%
8. Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 9.7 SwStr%, 31.2 CSW%
9. Paul Blackburn (OAK): 11.7 SwStr%, 30.9 CSW%
10. Sean Manaea (SD): 16.7 SwStr%, 30.2 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Cristian Javier - 6.0 IP - 62.0 JA Points
2. Martin Perez - 8.67 IP - 57.0 JA Points
3. Robbie Ray - 6.0 IP - 51.5 JA Points
4. Julio Urias - 5.0 IP - 49.75 JA Points
5. Eric Lauer - 6.67 IP - 45.0 JA Points
6. Charlie Morton - 5.33 IP - 41.5 JA Points
7. Chase Silseth - 4.67 IP - 40.0 JA Points
8. Ranger Suarez - 3.0 IP - 39.75 JA Points
9. Aaron Civale - 6.33 IP - 39.0 JA Points
10. Giovanny Gallegos - 1.67 IP - 36.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 8.0 GS - 56.99 JA Points
2. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 8.0 GS - 56.08 JA Points
3. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 8.0 GS - 54.04 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 7.0 GS - 53.37 JA Points
5. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 7.0 GS - 52.5 JA Points
6. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 7.0 GS - 50.98 JA Points
7. Lucas Giolito (CWS) - 6.0 GS - 49.65 JA Points
8. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 8.0 GS - 49.03 JA Points
9. Alex Cobb (SF) - 6.0 GS - 48.41 JA Points
10. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8.0 GS - 46.36 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Tarik Skubal's SL velo (24 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 91.0
Luis Castillo's SL velo (20 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 86.5
Luis Castillo's CH velo (32 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 88.1
Aaron Civale's SI velo (25 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 92.3
Julio Urias's CU velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 79.5
Devin Smeltzer's CH velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 82.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Civale's SI usage (26.3%) up 12.7 points
Chase Silseth's SL usage (23.7%) up 12.6 points
Eric Lauer's CU usage (31.3%) up 13.3 points
Erick Fedde's FC usage (40.2%) up 12.2 points
Humberto Castellanos's SL usage (41.5%) up 21.5 points
Jakob Junis's SI usage (50.0%) up 20.3 points
Julio Urias's CH usage (31.2%) up 15.6 points
Kyle Hendricks's FF usage (52.7%) up 25.5 points
Martin Perez's CH usage (33.3%) up 11.2 points
Zach Thompson's FC usage (51.2%) up 19.4 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 105 TBF, 36.1% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 90 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Jordan Montgomery - 84 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Dane Dunning - 99 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
JT Brubaker - 89 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
Eric Lauer - 97 TBF, 31.7% CSW%
Max Fried - 103 TBF, 31.4% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 93 TBF, 30.9% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 90 TBF, 43.3% K%
Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 37.4% K%
Tarik Skubal - 88 TBF, 34.1% K%
Robbie Ray - 123 TBF, 32.5% K%
Eric Lauer - 97 TBF, 32.0% K%
Logan Gilbert - 97 TBF, 29.9% K%
Sean Manaea - 105 TBF, 29.5% K%
JT Brubaker - 89 TBF, 29.2% K%
Gerrit Cole - 105 TBF, 28.6% K%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 28.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 90 TBF, 35.6% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 88 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Eric Lauer - 97 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 96 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 105 TBF, 24.8% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 99 TBF, 23.2% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 123 TBF, 22.8% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 102 TBF, 22.5% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 111 TBF, 63.0% GB%
Patrick Sandoval - 80 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 91 TBF, 61.6% GB%
Dane Dunning - 99 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Joan Adon - 80 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Martin Perez - 108 TBF, 57.0% GB%
Logan Webb - 101 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 101 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Miles Mikolas - 103 TBF, 53.8% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 28.4 K%, 2.0 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Frankie Montas - 77 TBF, 28.6 K%, 5.2 BB%, 52.9% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 70 TBF, 35.7 K%, 5.7 BB%, 53.8% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 105 TBF, 28.6 K%, 3.8 BB%, 47.9% GB%
Nick Martinez - 57 TBF, 31.6 K%, 5.3 BB%, 52.8% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 37.4 K%, 5.5 BB%, 55.8% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 88 TBF, 34.1 K%, 5.7 BB%, 47.2% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Adam Duvall (ATL) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Darin Ruf (SF) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
David Peralta (ARI) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Jake Cronenworth (SD) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jorge Soler (MIA) 5 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Josh Rojas (ARI) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 3 HR
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Taylor Ward (LAA) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Travis d'Arnaud (ATL) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Darin Ruf - 5.0 PA - 70.0 JA Points
2. Josh Rojas - 5.0 PA - 67.0 JA Points
3. David Peralta - 5.0 PA - 63.0 JA Points
4. Travis d'Arnaud - 4.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
5. Jorge Soler - 5.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
6. Christian Walker - 5.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
7. Ildemaro Vargas - 4.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
8. Emmanuel Rivera - 4.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
9. Jed Lowrie - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
10. Hunter Renfroe - 4.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 131.0 PA - 161.22 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 156.0 PA - 138.46 JA Points
3. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 141.0 PA - 130.78 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 167.0 PA - 130.3 JA Points
5. Mike Trout (LAA) - 148.0 PA - 128.92 JA Points
6. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 158.0 PA - 121.27 JA Points
7. Juan Soto (WSH) - 176.0 PA - 117.73 JA Points
8. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 167.0 PA - 111.62 JA Points
9. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 137.0 PA - 105.4 JA Points
10. Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 149.0 PA - 104.97 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 113.9mph - field_error
Austin Riley (ATL) - 113.8mph - field_out
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 113.8mph - double
Tommy Pham (CIN) - 112.6mph - field_out
Franmil Reyes (CLE) - 112.4mph - field_out
Matt Chapman (TOR) - 112.4mph - double
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) - 112.4mph - field_out
Travis d'Arnaud (ATL) - 112.3mph - double
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 112.2mph - nan
Manny Machado (SD) - 111.6mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 56 PA, 25 BIP, 7 Brls, 28.0 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 72 PA, 44 BIP, 12 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 71 PA, 49 BIP, 13 Brls, 26.5 Brl%
Mike Trout - 76 PA, 43 BIP, 11 Brls, 25.6 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 77 PA, 45 BIP, 11 Brls, 24.4 Brl%
Trevor Story - 80 PA, 46 BIP, 11 Brls, 23.9 Brl%
Gary Sanchez - 73 PA, 44 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.7 Brl%
Kole Calhoun - 62 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%
J.D. Martinez - 76 PA, 55 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Daniel Vogelbach - 59 PA, 36 BIP, 7 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 48 PA, 88 Swings, 93.2 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 66 PA, 93 Swings, 92.5 Cont%
Michael Brantley - 73 PA, 122 Swings, 91.0 Cont%
Wander Franco - 77 PA, 161 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Austin Meadows - 45 PA, 72 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 80 PA, 154 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 72 PA, 140 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 83 PA, 130 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Abraham Toro - 67 PA, 113 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 80 PA, 121 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Brendan Rodgers - 59 PA, 16.9 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 56 PA, 17.9 K%, 18.6 Brl%
Christian Walker - 79 PA, 17.7 K%, 18.5 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 71 PA, 19.7 K%, 26.5 Brl%
Jazz Chisholm - 69 PA, 17.4 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Jeimer Candelario - 72 PA, 19.4 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Josh Donaldson - 67 PA, 17.9 K%, 17.8 Brl%
Juan Soto - 80 PA, 15.0 K%, 14.0 Brl%
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