MLB Daily Notes - September 16th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
This is the part of the year when I start writing about my own fantasy team. It is semifinal week in Burrell Fantasy Baseball Season 17. It’s a ten-team head-to-head categories league that we have been playing on ESPN since 2007 when we were sophomores in high school. The league has survived a lot of stuff. I was a 140-pound acne-faced Pirates-loving 15-year-old when the league began, and now I’m a 33-year-old with three kids. A lot has changed in 18 years, but one thing that hasn’t is that I’m still grinding out that league all spring and summer long - and I still weigh about 140 pounds. The acne is gone, though.
The way I got it done this year is by
a) Keeping Shohei Ohtani
b) Trading for Aaron Judge early on (gave up Corbin Burnes)
c) Hitting on a bunch of SPs
My offense is pretty poopy other than my big three of Ohtani, Judge, and William Contreras. But I have a pretty #diverse group of category contributors with specialists mixed all in there like Toglia for dingers, Caballero for steals, Horwitz for some OBP, and other examples like that.
The pitching staff has been awesome:
Cole Ragans
Pablo Lopez
Shota Imanaga
Spencer Schwellenbach
Michael King
Blake Snell
Jared Jones
Tanner Bibee
Yusei Kikuchi
Ryan Helsley
Raisel Iglesias
Ryan Walker
Clay Holmes
I am the top-ranked team when you calculate out the rotisserie standings, although I did not win the regular season championship because #StupidAssClint had a very good season in his own right.
I enter the playoffs as the #2 seed and a winner of eight of my last nine.
This is about as confident as I’ve been entering the playoffs, and I’ve made the playoffs six straight years, but I’m championshipless since 2019.
My league has the playoffs extremely late, and this year, we’re running it the whole way to the end of the regular season. We wrapped up the season a week earlier in years past to avoid players getting benched that last weekend - but this year, we’re going the distance. That is either because we had a counsel with healthy debate on the issue, or because I forgot to edit the settings before the season started. I can’t remember which.
You are all on pins-and-freakin-needles right now. But sweat not; daily updates will be provided.
A lot of you are probably in the finals of your league right now. I’ve been getting the hair-on-fire DMs from people asking me which pitchers they should start. I have to say, if you’ve made it this far - you should trust your own judgment a bit more. Believe in yourself. You are beautiful just the way you are! Don’t you remember what they taught you in grade school? You don’t need no man!
But I get it. You aren’t asking me because I’m smarter than you, you just want me to make the decision for you so you can blame me in your head if it fails. And I’m not saying that in a pretentious manner, I actually think that’s a pretty good mental solution to the issue. Cast all your cares on me, bros, it’s fine - I’ll take it. But if you publicly tweet me with criticism, I will cry.
Pitcher Review
Do we even care that much about day recaps at this point? We aren’t changing our rosters for the future anymore. This is the time of year we’re just locked into what’s happening today. So, I am going to shift a bit more towards looking at the upcoming games rather than what happened yesterday. But, quickly:
I did tell one of those DMers to start Cristopher Sanchez over some other options, so I helped that dude out greatly; shout out to me. 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 7 K, 1 BB
Charlie Morton has put an end to the zig-zagging.
Eight strikeouts for Cade Povich against the Tigers. I still hate him, but I have to shout out the fact that he has a 23:4 K:BB in his last three outings (vs. CWS/BOS/DET). He still has a sub-10% K-BB%, though, which should be illegal.
I’m establishing and chairing the Rhett Lowder hate committee. It’s been too long since I’ve picked a member of the Reds who is doing well with real-life statistics and started telling everybody that they suck. He had another useful outing yesterday (5.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 5 K, 1 BB), and the Reds fans are excited about it. I see them on Twitter. I SEENT IT. The problem you have, Reds bros, is that he has a 10.0% SwStr%, a 44.4% Strike%, a 37.5% Ball%, and a sub-94mph fastball. He has a 1.74 ERA, but a 4.66 SIERA! He has given up 11 fly balls and 18 line drives and not a single home run. Three of those balls in play have been barrels, and they were all caught. It’s not for long with the kid. The fair thing to mention here is that he’s 22 and was in college last year, so a lot could and will change, but I’m not drafting him next year - that’s already been decided.
Jared Jones had a ton of velo yesterday, but the command was bad again. 4 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 5 K, 3 BB, 50.5% Strike%, 37.1% Ball%. It’s really good to see that velocity be way up, but the command is spotty with him, which turns into a bunch of disappointing outings. I’m starting him for the rest of the year, he gives you a real shot at a crazy good outing that puts you over the top, but I’m not going to watch him with full confidence.
Walker Buehler somehow survived five walks. 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 5 K, 5 BB. It wasn’t even that bad of a ball rate (35.1%), but he once again could not generate whiffs (10.3% SwStr%). He has an 18.3% K% on the year, those injuries really took a toll. That’s too bad.
The Dodgers will enter the playoffs without much SP depth. They have a legitimate SP1 in Yamamoto, and a strong second option with Flaherty, but after that, it’s pretty ugly.
I will be in Cincinnati on Friday with my wife, taking a little 24-hour trip away from the kids. I booked it in July when the Pirates were right in the thick of things, so I was really hoping that it would be a pivotal game and I’d luck into seeing Skenes or Jones. Instead, it’s a completely meaningless game, and it looks like Mitch Keller is lined up to start it. But hey, we’ll be able to sleep all night with no kids!
Hitter Review
Big performances from some young guns yesterday.
Chourio: 2 R, HR, 5 RBI, 35 points
Busch: 2 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3 points
Greene: 2 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 30 points
Wood: 2 R, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 30 points
Their updated 2024 stats:
Chourio: .276/.330/.478, 21 HR, 20 SB
Busch: .257/.340/.454, 20 HR, 2 SB
Greene: .265/.354/.494, 23 HR, 4 SB
Wood: .273/.364/.429, 7 HR, 12 SB
Full stats:
I will continue to bang the Riley Greene drum. His 90th-percentile exit velo on fly balls is 107.6 That is behind only these names:
Ohtani
O Cruz
Judge
Stanton
Soto
J Sanchez
Schwarber
Rooker
Elly
O’Neill
Vlad
Yoradn
Tatis
Salvador
H Ramos
William Contreras
Rafael Devers
Marcell Ozuna
And he has made gains in K% and GB%.
Riley Greene K% and GB% By Year
2022: 28.7% K%, 57% GB%
2023: 27.4% K%, 49% GB%
2024: 26.3% K%, 43% GB%
He has missed some time this year, and without those injuries, he would likely be flirting with 30 homers this year. I think a 30-homer season for this guy is inevitable. He’s also a very good on-base guy, so he’s nearly a stud in OBP leagues for next season. I think he’ll be affordable again.
Chourio will be a top-20 pick next year, and I think that’s the appropriate price - so there’s not much to say about him. He’s paid off for those who drafted him this year, even after a slow start.
And James Wood is very tough. There are only three hitters with
→ GB% above 50%
→ Brl% above 8%
→ K% above 26%
They are Wood, Garrett Mitchell, and Jackson Holliday.
Some plots on Wood:
The exit velo is not an issue. The issue is the lack of ability of consistency in the launch angle, and the extremely low pull rate (30% vs. a league average of 37%). He’s hit 27 fly balls (an extremely low number, by the way) with just a 7% pull rate. That’s two. He’s pulled just two fly balls.
He needs to clean up the batted ball profile next year to have the fantasy season that he will be drafted for. I think he can do it, but it’s no guarantee. It will be a risky pick in the third or fourth round.
Short-Term Roster Management
Alrighty, here we go. If you’re looking for an SP add today, I would advise you on:
Reid Detmers vs. CWS
Matthew Boyd vs. MIN
Merrill Kelly vs. COL
Reese Olson returns today, but he threw just three innings in his final rehab start, so I wouldn’t go there.
For tomorrow:
Tylor Megill vs. WSH
Gavin Williams vs. MIN
Mitchell Parker vs. NYM
Bobby Miller vs. MIA
Griffin Canning vs. CWS
Frankie Montas vs. PHI
Some hitter streamers can be found at the bottom of this post. Parker Meadows feels like a guy who should be added. Since his return from the minors:
.297/.342/.536, 19% K%, 5 HR, 22 R, 21 RBI, 5 SB
That’s pretty awesome production, and he gets a game today while a lot of teams are off.
Hope this helps, let’s win a championship!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Cristopher Sanchez
2. David Peterson
3. Carlos Rodon
4. George Kirby
5. Sean Burke
6. Charlie Morton
7. Taj Bradley
8. Ronel Blanco
9. Landen Roupp
10. Kyle Hendricks
11. Cade Povich
12. Zac Gallen
13. Miles Mikolas
14. Ben Lively
15. MacKenzie Gore
16. Walker Buehler
17. Martin Perez
18. Kutter Crawford
19. JP Sears
20. Rhett Lowder
21. DL Hall
22. Caden Dana
23. Brady Singer
24. Andrew Heaney
25. Jared Jones
26. David Festa
27. Yariel Rodriguez
28. Keider Montero
29. Cal Quantrill
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Kyle Hendricks (vs. COL): 26.5 Points
2. George Kirby (vs. TEX): 25.15 Points
3. MacKenzie Gore (vs. MIA): 25.1 Points
4. David Peterson (vs. PHI): 24.26 Points
5. Ronel Blanco (vs. LAA): 23.9 Points
6. Cristopher Sanchez (vs. NYM): 23.55 Points
7. Cade Povich (vs. DET): 20.85 Points
8. Charlie Morton (vs. LAD): 20.5 Points
9. Jeff Criswell (vs. CHC): 17.41 Points
10. Carlos Rodon (vs. BOS): 17.19 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. David Peterson (NYM): 18 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
2. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 16 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
3. Sean Burke (CWS): 15 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
4. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 15 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
5. Taj Bradley (TB): 15 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
6. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 14 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
7. Zac Gallen (ARI): 14 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
8. Charlie Morton (ATL): 14 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
9. Cade Povich (BAL): 13 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
10. Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 13 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Miles Mikolas (STL): 58.3 Strike%, 25.0 Ball%
2. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 57.5 Strike%, 20.7 Ball%
3. Cade Povich (BAL): 53.9 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%
4. Landen Roupp (SF): 52.7 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%
5. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 51.6 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
6. Jared Jones (PIT): 50.5 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%
7. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 50.0 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
8. Walker Buehler (LAD): 49.5 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
9. George Kirby (SEA): 49.4 Strike%, 29.4 Ball%
10. Sean Burke (CWS): 49.4 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%
11. Taj Bradley (TB): 48.5 Strike%, 39.4 Ball%
12. Gerson Garabito (TEX): 48.3 Strike%, 36.2 Ball%
13. Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 48.2 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
14. Joe Ross (MIL): 48.0 Strike%, 46.0 Ball%
15. DL Hall (MIL): 47.5 Strike%, 40.0 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Ben Lively: 59 Pitches, 15 Outs, 3.93 POUT
2. George Kirby: 85 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.05 POUT
3. Keider Montero: 63 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.2 POUT
4. David Peterson: 99 Pitches, 23 Outs, 4.3 POUT
5. Cristopher Sanchez: 87 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.35 POUT
6. Martin Perez: 69 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.6 POUT
7. Kyle Hendricks: 85 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.72 POUT
8. Yariel Rodriguez: 62 Pitches, 13 Outs, 4.77 POUT
9. JP Sears: 86 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.78 POUT
10. Rhett Lowder: 77 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.81 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Cal Quantrill's FS velo (21 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 88.8
Jared Jones's CU velo (17 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 83.4
Adam Oller's SV velo (24 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 86.0
Taj Bradley's FC velo (26 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 91.5
Miles Mikolas's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 77.5
Martin Perez's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 76.6
DL Hall's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 84.4
Martin Perez's FC velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 86.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Charlie Morton's FF usage (45.1%) up 14.5 points
Joe Ross's FF usage (30.0%) up 13.7 points
Ronel Blanco's CU usage (28.3%) up 21.1 points
Taj Bradley's FS usage (34.3%) up 18.5 points
Yariel Rodriguez's SL usage (40.3%) up 11.7 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Emerson Hancock Sinker: +24.5%
Emerson Hancock 4-Seam Fastball: -23.9%
Sean Manaea Sinker: +23.5%
Yusei Kikuchi Slider: +21.8%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +17.0%
Mason Black Sweeper: -16.6%
Yariel Rodriguez 4-Seam Fastball: -16.2%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -16.1%
Ryan Pepiot 4-Seam Fastball: +15.7%
Logan Webb Changeup: -15.6%
Ronel Blanco Changeup: -15.5%
Taj Bradley Cutter: +15.2%
Tylor Megill Sinker: +14.6%
Ryan Pepiot Slider: -14.5%
Ronel Blanco Curveball: +14.3%
Cooper Criswell Sweeper: -14.1%
Beau Brieske Slider: -13.7%
Shane Baz Slider: -13.5%
Nick Pivetta Sweeper: -13.4%
Albert Suarez 4-Seam Fastball: -13.3%
Zach Eflin Sinker: -13.1%
Yariel Rodriguez Slider: +12.8%
Logan Webb Sinker: +12.4%
Dean Kremer 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Seth Lugo Cutter: +12.4%
Jameson Taillon Sinker: +12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Landen Roupp - 71 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Sean Manaea - 100 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Matthew Boyd - 66 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 73 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Yusei Kikuchi - 77 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 97 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Aaron Civale - 66 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Cristopher Sanchez - 103 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 97 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Michael King - 70 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Gilbert - 97 TBF, 37.1% K%
Matthew Boyd - 66 TBF, 34.8% K%
Carlos Rodon - 97 TBF, 34.0% K%
Zac Gallen - 87 TBF, 33.3% K%
Sean Manaea - 100 TBF, 33.0% K%
Cole Ragans - 87 TBF, 32.2% K%
Frankie Montas - 70 TBF, 31.4% K%
Paul Skenes - 68 TBF, 30.9% K%
Seth Lugo - 76 TBF, 30.3% K%
Chris Bassitt - 80 TBF, 30.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Gilbert - 97 TBF, 34.0% K-BB%
Matthew Boyd - 66 TBF, 31.8% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 73 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%
Seth Lugo - 76 TBF, 27.6% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 77 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 97 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Chris Bassitt - 80 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Sean Manaea - 100 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 97 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 69 TBF, 24.6% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 75 TBF, 72.3% GB%
Max Fried - 104 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Logan Webb - 96 TBF, 61.3% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 85 TBF, 60.7% GB%
Jose Quintana - 71 TBF, 58.0% GB%
Mitch Spence - 93 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Brady Singer - 95 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 72 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Andre Pallante - 76 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Landen Roupp - 71 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 45 TBF, 31.1 K%, 2.2 BB%, 56.7% GB%
Cade Povich - 88 TBF, 29.5 K%, 5.7 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Carlos Rodon - 97 TBF, 34.0 K%, 7.2 BB%, 46.4% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 80 TBF, 30.0 K%, 5.0 BB%, 46.9% GB%
Edward Cabrera - 93 TBF, 28.0 K%, 6.5 BB%, 53.3% GB%
Joey Cantillo - 46 TBF, 37.0 K%, 2.2 BB%, 53.6% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 97 TBF, 37.1 K%, 3.1 BB%, 43.9% GB%
Nick Pivetta - 73 TBF, 28.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 44.7% GB%
Raisel Iglesias - 45 TBF, 31.1 K%, 4.4 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Seth Lugo - 76 TBF, 30.3 K%, 2.6 BB%, 45.1% GB%
Sonny Gray - 69 TBF, 29.0 K%, 4.3 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Tanner Houck - 45 TBF, 28.9 K%, 6.7 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 73 TBF, 28.8 K%, 0.0 BB%, 44.2% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 77 TBF, 29.9 K%, 2.6 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 98 TBF, 29.6 K%, 6.1 BB%, 46.0% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Brandon Pfaadt: 10.22 ERA, 4.26 SIERA
Zebby Matthews: 7.97 ERA, 3.94 SIERA
Bobby Miller: 8.28 ERA, 4.67 SIERA
Garrett Crochet: 5.4 ERA, 1.95 SIERA
Taj Bradley: 7.11 ERA, 4.21 SIERA
Justin Verlander: 8.34 ERA, 5.6 SIERA
Miles Mikolas: 5.96 ERA, 3.49 SIERA
Jake Irvin: 6.67 ERA, 4.37 SIERA
Colin Rea: 6.66 ERA, 4.43 SIERA
Logan Gilbert: 4.7 ERA, 2.64 SIERA
Luckiest
Beau Brieske: 1.93 ERA, 5.85 SIERA
Cooper Criswell: 2.02 ERA, 5.64 SIERA
Freddy Peralta: 2.25 ERA, 5.2 SIERA
Michael King: 1.71 ERA, 4.17 SIERA
Bowden Francis: 1.25 ERA, 3.66 SIERA
Pablo Lopez: 0.79 ERA, 3.17 SIERA
Jose Quintana: 2.4 ERA, 4.61 SIERA
Jose Berrios: 1.6 ERA, 3.73 SIERA
Martin Perez: 3.28 ERA, 5.24 SIERA
Keider Montero: 2.7 ERA, 4.51 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Cristopher Sanchez - +3.1% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
David Peterson - +2.3% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Logan Gilbert - +4.0% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Luis Severino - +2.4% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Austin Gomber - +4.9% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - +3.9% CSW%, -5.4 BB%
Seth Lugo - +2.3% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Albert Suarez - +2.7% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Bryan Woo - +2.0% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Jose Urena - +2.9% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Casey Mize - +5.2% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Matthew Boyd - +3.3% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Aaron Civale - +3.8% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Alec Marsh - +4.7% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Tylor Megill - +3.8% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Blake Snell - +5.5% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Osvaldo Bido - +2.9% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Reynaldo Lopez - +2.7% CSW%, -5.9 BB%
Aaron Ashby - +4.5% CSW%, -7.6 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Brent Rooker (OAK) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
J.D. Martinez (NYM) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
James Wood (WSH) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Michael Busch (CHC) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Riley Greene (DET) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Hardest Hit Balls
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) - 114.4mph - double
Shea Langeliers (OAK) - 113.7mph - home_run
Juan Soto (NYY) - 113.4mph - single
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 112.1mph - home_run
Trevor Larnach (MIN) - 112.1mph - field_out
Jarren Duran (BOS) - 111.9mph - grounded_into_double_play
Eric Wagaman (LAA) - 111.7mph - double
Randy Arozarena (SEA) - 110.5mph - home_run
Randal Grichuk (ARI) - 110.4mph - double
Jerar Encarnacion (SF) - 110.3mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Juan Soto - 84 PA, 0.289 wOBA, 0.4 xwOBA, 0.111 Diff
Jake Burger - 75 PA, 0.242 wOBA, 0.343 xwOBA, 0.101 Diff
Heliot Ramos - 72 PA, 0.217 wOBA, 0.313 xwOBA, 0.096 Diff
Rhys Hoskins - 63 PA, 0.243 wOBA, 0.326 xwOBA, 0.083 Diff
Aaron Judge - 80 PA, 0.338 wOBA, 0.417 xwOBA, 0.079 Diff
Nick Castellanos - 76 PA, 0.287 wOBA, 0.366 xwOBA, 0.079 Diff
Michael Harris II - 83 PA, 0.289 wOBA, 0.364 xwOBA, 0.075 Diff
Jorge Polanco - 62 PA, 0.205 wOBA, 0.279 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Michael Toglia - 77 PA, 0.307 wOBA, 0.38 xwOBA, 0.073 Diff
Giancarlo Stanton - 66 PA, 0.266 wOBA, 0.337 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff
Bottom 10
Tommy Edman - 73 PA, 0.412 wOBA, 0.283 xwOBA, -0.129 Diff
Victor Robles - 69 PA, 0.517 wOBA, 0.401 xwOBA, -0.116 Diff
Lane Thomas - 70 PA, 0.406 wOBA, 0.294 xwOBA, -0.112 Diff
Tyler Fitzgerald - 59 PA, 0.32 wOBA, 0.229 xwOBA, -0.091 Diff
JJ Bleday - 82 PA, 0.386 wOBA, 0.298 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 72 PA, 0.401 wOBA, 0.313 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff
Nathaniel Lowe - 73 PA, 0.45 wOBA, 0.367 xwOBA, -0.083 Diff
Tyler Stephenson - 71 PA, 0.321 wOBA, 0.24 xwOBA, -0.081 Diff
Brent Rooker - 86 PA, 0.455 wOBA, 0.375 xwOBA, -0.08 Diff
Luis Arraez - 80 PA, 0.43 wOBA, 0.354 xwOBA, -0.076 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 79 PA, 51 BIP, 14 Brls, 27.5 Brl%
Tyler O'Neill - 79 PA, 38 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.7 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 79 PA, 45 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Luke Raley - 57 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Kerry Carpenter - 62 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 66 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Taylor Ward - 76 PA, 54 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.4 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 75 PA, 50 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Willy Adames - 80 PA, 56 BIP, 11 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Lawrence Butler - 81 PA, 62 BIP, 12 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Yordan Alvarez - 81 PA, 0.451 xwOBA
Paul Goldschmidt - 73 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
William Contreras - 75 PA, 0.439 xwOBA
Lawrence Butler - 81 PA, 0.437 xwOBA
Eugenio Suarez - 75 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Jonathan Aranda - 46 PA, 0.429 xwOBA
Kerry Carpenter - 62 PA, 0.426 xwOBA
Luke Raley - 57 PA, 0.421 xwOBA
Matt Olson - 81 PA, 0.42 xwOBA
Kyle Schwarber - 79 PA, 0.418 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 80 PA, 150 Swings, 95.3 Cont%
Geraldo Perdomo - 75 PA, 120 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 87 PA, 192 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Ernie Clement - 70 PA, 117 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
TJ Friedl - 81 PA, 121 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 74 PA, 119 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 72 PA, 127 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Nolan Schanuel - 71 PA, 134 Swings, 87.3 Cont%
Nick Fortes - 49 PA, 85 Swings, 87.1 Cont%
Xander Bogaerts - 72 PA, 124 Swings, 87.1 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Victor Robles - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Dylan Crews - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 5 Attempts (2 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Xavier Edwards - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Jose Caballero - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Jose Tena - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Seiya Suzuki - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Nolan Schanuel - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Josh Lowe - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Wyatt Langford - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Noelvi Marte - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Trevor Story - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Mike Siani - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Zack Gelof - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Romy Gonzalez - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Marcus Semien - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Jacob Young - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Jose Ramirez - 17 Attempts (12 steals)
Victor Robles - 12 Attempts (12 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 12 Attempts (12 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Dylan Crews - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Jose Caballero - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Oneil Cruz - 10 Attempts (10 steals)
Jonny Deluca - 10 Attempts (7 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 10 Attempts (5 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Luis Robert - 9 Attempts (5 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Josh Lowe - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Bobby Witt Jr. - 87 PA, 14.9 K%, 14.9 Brl%
Jackson Chourio - 80 PA, 17.5 K%, 19.0 Brl%
Jonathan Aranda - 46 PA, 19.6 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Lawrence Butler - 81 PA, 16.0 K%, 19.4 Brl%
Manny Machado - 80 PA, 15.0 K%, 14.1 Brl%
Matt Olson - 81 PA, 17.3 K%, 15.0 Brl%
Michael Harris II - 83 PA, 18.1 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 73 PA, 17.8 K%, 17.5 Brl%
Taylor Ward - 76 PA, 15.8 K%, 20.4 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 81 PA, 14.8 K%, 17.2 Brl%
Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers
Luke Raley - 88 PA, +0.122 xwOBA
Victor Robles - 91 PA, +0.119 xwOBA
Francisco Lindor - 117 PA, +0.102 xwOBA
Cedric Mullins II - 91 PA, +0.1 xwOBA
Corbin Carroll - 124 PA, +0.092 xwOBA
Michael Toglia - 113 PA, +0.089 xwOBA
Lars Nootbaar - 99 PA, +0.085 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 126 PA, +0.072 xwOBA
William Contreras - 112 PA, +0.07 xwOBA
Cody Bellinger - 122 PA, +0.067 xwOBA
Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers
Tyler O'Neill - 100 PA, +10.9 Brl%
Francisco Lindor - 117 PA, +10.3 Brl%
Corbin Carroll - 124 PA, +9.5 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 98 PA, +8.9 Brl%
Luke Raley - 88 PA, +8.4 Brl%
Brandon Marsh - 87 PA, +8.0 Brl%
Wyatt Langford - 106 PA, +7.9 Brl%
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 104 PA, +7.7 Brl%
Ceddanne Rafaela - 88 PA, +7.6 Brl%
Will Smith - 81 PA, +7.1 Brl%
Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers
Lawrence Butler - 113 PA, +9.5 Cont%
Xander Bogaerts - 112 PA, +9.0 Cont%
Bryce Harper - 113 PA, +8.9 Cont%
Jacob Young - 91 PA, +8.0 Cont%
Cedric Mullins II - 91 PA, +7.4 Cont%
Jake McCarthy - 119 PA, +7.3 Cont%
Jonny DeLuca - 95 PA, +7.2 Cont%
Victor Robles - 91 PA, +6.9 Cont%
Masataka Yoshida - 94 PA, +6.7 Cont%
Matt Olson - 118 PA, +6.2 Cont%
Last 30 Days - K% Improvers
Lawrence Butler - 113 PA, -11.7 K%
Josh Jung - 105 PA, -10.9 K%
Parker Meadows - 112 PA, -10.6 K%
Jonny DeLuca - 95 PA, -10.2 K%
Michael Busch - 104 PA, -10.0 K%
Victor Robles - 91 PA, -9.3 K%
Matt Olson - 118 PA, -8.9 K%
Brenton Doyle - 101 PA, -8.9 K%
Cedric Mullins II - 91 PA, -8.4 K%
Jarren Duran - 128 PA, -8.2 K%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Jackson Chourio - +5.6% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -6.7 Chase%
Nolan Schanuel - +12.1% Contact%, +4.5 mph exit velo, -10.6 Chase%
Taylor Ward - +3.1% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -6.0 Chase%
Cedric Mullins II - +9.3% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -10.5 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Gunnar Henderson - 0.459 xwOBA, 13.6% Brl%, 82.4% Contact%, 24.8% Chase%, 13.3% K%
Juan Soto - 0.413 xwOBA, 18.9% Brl%, 75.8% Contact%, 20.8% Chase%, 22.6% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Mike Siani - 38.4% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.954 Cold Rating
MJ Melendez - 34.5% Whiff%, 76.2% Weak%, 0.91 Cold Rating
Mickey Moniak - 37.9% Whiff%, 68.0% Weak%, 0.883 Cold Rating
Jordan Walker - 33.9% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.882 Cold Rating
Dansby Swanson - 31.2% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.873 Cold Rating
Andrew McCutchen - 35.1% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.868 Cold Rating
Brendan Rodgers - 37.3% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.852 Cold Rating
Adolis Garcia - 38.5% Whiff%, 65.4% Weak%, 0.85 Cold Rating
Ezequiel Duran - 31.7% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.839 Cold Rating
Jesus Sanchez - 39.7% Whiff%, 63.6% Weak%, 0.836 Cold Rating
Minor League Reports
Top Minor League Hitting Performances - Yesterday
James Outman (LAD): 3/4, 2R, 2HR, 5RBI, 1SB, 42FPts
Francisco Urbaez (CIN): 4/4, 2R, 0HR, 6RBI, 1SB, 41FPts
Matt Shaw (CHC): 4/5, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 1SB, 37FPts
Lamar Sparks (MIL): 3/4, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 33FPts
DJ Gladney (CWS): 2/4, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 32FPts
Nick Martini (CIN): 2/6, 2R, 2HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 32FPts
Kevin Alcantara (CHC): 3/6, 3R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 30FPts
Owen Caissie (CHC): 4/6, 3R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0SB, 29FPts
Eguy Rosario (SD): 2/3, 3R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 27FPts
Caleb Durbin (NYY): 1/2, 3R, 1HR, 1RBI, 1SB, 27FPts
Top Minor League Pitching Performances - Yesterday
Chad Patrick (MIL): 0 Pitches, 6IP, 3H, 0ER, 12K, 0BB, 35FPts
Jackson Rutledge (WSH): 0 Pitches, 7IP, 2H, 0ER, 8K, 4BB, 28FPts
Zack Thompson (STL): 0 Pitches, 5IP, 2H, 0ER, 9K, 1BB, 27FPts
Trystan Vrieling (NYY): 0 Pitches, 5IP, 2H, 0ER, 6K, 2BB, 26FPts
Ben Anderson (TEX): 0 Pitches, 5IP, 3H, 0ER, 8K, 1BB, 25FPts
Robert Dugger (OAK): 0 Pitches, 6IP, 2H, 0ER, 5K, 2BB, 25FPts
AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL): 0 Pitches, 6IP, 3H, 1ER, 6K, 2BB, 24FPts
Josh Maciejewski (NYY): 0 Pitches, 5IP, 2H, 0ER, 7K, 0BB, 24FPts
C.J. Culpepper (MIN): 0 Pitches, 5IP, 3H, 0ER, 5K, 0BB, 23FPts
Caleb Bolden (BOS): 0 Pitches, 6IP, 2H, 0ER, 6K, 2BB, 23FPts
AA-AAA OPS Leaders
Johnathan Rodriguez (AAA - CLE) 481 PA 0.936 OPS
Edwin Rios (AAA - CIN) 401 PA 0.926 OPS
Jason Vosler (AAA - SEA) 498 PA 0.926 OPS
Deyvison De Los Santos (AAA - MIA) 559 PA 0.921 OPS
CJ Alexander (AAA - OAK) 389 PA 0.91 OPS
Eguy Rosario (AAA - SD) 384 PA 0.906 OPS
Colby Thomas (AAA - OAK) 548 PA 0.904 OPS
Pedro Leon (AAA - HOU) 515 PA 0.895 OPS
Jordan Diaz (AAA - OAK) 436 PA 0.891 OPS
Dalton Rushing (AAA - LAD) 480 PA 0.889 OPS
Cooper Hummel (AAA - HOU) 420 PA 0.885 OPS
Trenton Brooks (AAA - SF) 391 PA 0.883 OPS
Carlos Perez - 542208 (AAA - OAK) 441 PA 0.88 OPS
Roman Anthony (AAA - BOS) 513 PA 0.877 OPS
Taylor Trammell (AAA - NYY) 381 PA 0.876 OPS
Tirso Ornelas (AAA - SD) 522 PA 0.873 OPS
Matt Koperniak (AAA - STL) 488 PA 0.873 OPS
Matt Shaw (AAA - CHC) 493 PA 0.868 OPS
Tim Tawa (AAA - ARI) 596 PA 0.867 OPS
Luke Ritter (AAA - NYM) 547 PA 0.867 OPS
AA-AAA Pitching K-BB% Leaders
Bubba Chandler (AAA - PIT) 114 IP 22.3% K-BB
Brandon Young (AAA - BAL) 105 IP 21.7% K-BB
Ian Seymour (AAA - TB) 140 IP 21.7% K-BB
Noah Cameron (AAA - KC) 124 IP 21.6% K-BB
Thomas Harrington (AAA - PIT) 109 IP 21.4% K-BB
Troy Melton (AA - DET) 100 IP 20.7% K-BB
Will Warren (AAA - NYY) 104 IP 20.0% K-BB
Robinson Pina (AAA - PHI) 124 IP 19.8% K-BB
Mason Barnett (AA - OAK) 133 IP 19.8% K-BB
Isaac Coffey (AA - BOS) 113 IP 19.7% K-BB
Aaron Brown - 676345 (AAA - HOU) 105 IP 19.4% K-BB
Drew Parrish (AA - ATL) 115 IP 19.4% K-BB
Chayce McDermott (AAA - BAL) 97 IP 19.3% K-BB
Tyler Stuart (AAA - WSH) 122 IP 18.8% K-BB
Brett Kerry (AA - LAA) 143 IP 18.8% K-BB
Chad Patrick (AAA - MIL) 131 IP 18.7% K-BB
Carson Ragsdale (AAA - SF) 117 IP 18.1% K-BB
Joander Suarez (AAA - NYM) 128 IP 17.9% K-BB
Alex Pham (AA - BAL) 119 IP 17.8% K-BB
Carson Palmquist (AAA - COL) 116 IP 17.5% K-BB
Schedules & Streamers
Toughest Upcoming Hitter Schedules - Next 7 Days
BOS - 112.8 Opposing SP Stuff+
BAL - 111.5 Opposing SP Stuff+
LAA - 110.9 Opposing SP Stuff+
SEA - 109.6 Opposing SP Stuff+
TB - 109.5 Opposing SP Stuff+
Softest Upcoming Hitter Schedules - Next 7 Days
STL - 77.7 Opposing SP Stuff+
CWS - 81.6 Opposing SP Stuff+
ATL - 86.2 Opposing SP Stuff+
CHC - 88.5 Opposing SP Stuff+
SF - 89.2 Opposing SP Stuff+
Today's SP Streamer Picks
Reid Detmers (25.0% Owned): Projected 5.87IP 2.41ER 7.21SO 1.62BB 20.18FPts
Aaron Civale (42.0% Owned): Projected 5.24IP 2.57ER 4.89SO 2.3BB 13.08FPts
Jake Irvin (32.0% Owned): Projected 5.4IP 2.72ER 4.89SO 1.88BB 12.69FPts
OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS
Otto Lopez - 42 PA, 1.07 OPS
Luke Raley - 35 PA, 1.049 OPS
Kyle Isbel - 26 PA, 1.033 OPS
Carlos Santana - 26 PA, 1.01 OPS
Niko Kavadas - 28 PA, 0.986 OPS
Nolan Schanuel - 34 PA, 0.953 OPS
Parker Meadows - 42 PA, 0.928 OPS
Andrew McCutchen - 30 PA, 0.927 OPS
Miguel Rojas - 26 PA, 0.923 OPS
Jonathan Aranda - 35 PA, 0.91 OPS
Today's Hitter Streamer Picks
Joc Pederson OF (44.0% Owned): Projected 0.8R 0.21HR 0.85RBI 0.71SO 0.45BB 0.05SB 9.59FPts
Niko Kavadas 1B (0.0% Owned): Projected 0.59R 0.2HR 0.71RBI 0.99SO 0.57BB 0.03SB 8.29FPts
Parker Meadows CF (20.0% Owned): Projected 0.62R 0.14HR 0.47RBI 0.94SO 0.33BB 0.17SB 8.05FPts
Charlie Blackmon RF (6.0% Owned): Projected 0.69R 0.12HR 0.51RBI 0.77SO 0.36BB 0.06SB 8.04FPts
Gabriel Moreno C (32.0% Owned): Projected 0.65R 0.1HR 0.68RBI 0.46SO 0.29BB 0.05SB 7.96FPts
Tommy Pham LF (5.0% Owned): Projected 0.62R 0.11HR 0.47RBI 0.89SO 0.34BB 0.11SB 7.9FPts
Pavin Smith RF (3.0% Owned): Projected 0.63R 0.17HR 0.63RBI 0.58SO 0.38BB 0.03SB 7.78FPts
Dylan Crews OF (43.0% Owned): Projected 0.59R 0.12HR 0.41RBI 1.16SO 0.34BB 0.19SB 7.7FPts
Become a paid sub today to get the rest of the daily notes. It’s just $9/month and you get everything I do. Check out the about page for more. 10% of your subscription goes to charitable organizations such as Samaritan’s Purse, a Christian humanitarian aid organization.