MLB Daily Notes - September 2nd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
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Kodai Senga was awesome last night and now has somewhat quietly turned in a really nice rookie season.
25 GS, 143.1 IP, 3.08 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 29.3% K%, 11.0% BB%
That’s an 18.3% K-BB%, and he has a 45% GB%. His BABIP is nothing to be worried about at .285, and he’s limited hitters to a very low .293 xwOBA. I would worry a little bit about maybe him benefiting from some positive variance on contact (6.1% Brl% is low), but overall I think he’s a legit top-30 SP going into next year.
I’ll probably still be lower on him than others given the 11% BB%. Only six other SPs have 20+ GS and a BB% over 10%, and only Ohtani of that group has been any good, so it’s a tough thing to overcome - but Senga has the STUFF to make up for it.
The stuff:
Really reliant on that forkball, which has always been elite - but yeah, it doesn’t really seem like the kind of profile I like when drafting SPs to rely on.
Eury Perez also made another start and once again went whiff-crazy but delivered an undesirable result
4.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 5 K, 3 BB
That stings for those of you that took a shot on him for the playoffs. The 20.9% SwStr% on 86 pitches was great, but it didn’t translate. He still has a great 2.86 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in his 78.2 Major League innings, so this guy could be housing down Cy Young votes as soon as next year, but it wasn’t to be last night.
Only five pitchers have made at least five starts this year while maintaining a SwStr% above 17% (this is ordered by how many pitches they’ve thrown):
Spencer Strider 21.3%
Shane McClanahan 17.1%
Tyler Glasnow 17.4%
Eury Perez 17.4%
Jacob deGrom 21.7%
Joe Ryan made his second start off the IL, and it went well.
6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 7 K, 0 BB
He’s been just fine since returning with a 14:2 K:BB in 11 innings, allowing just two runs. He has the fourth-best K-BB% among pitchers with at least 15 starts this year
Strider 30.6%
Gausman 25.3%
Glasnow 24.6%
Ryan 24.5%
Sale 23.2%
It should be a strong finish to the year for Ryan, and he might flirt with being a top-ten SP for me next year.
Big starts for these names as well:
Wheeler (6 IP, 3 ER, 10:0 K:BB)
Peralta (6 IP, 1 ER, 10:0 K:BB)
Gilbert (6.2 IP, 1 ER, 9:0 K:BB)
The Braves’ relentless assault on the league’s pitching continued as they put nine hits and five earned runs on Julio Urias. He went for just a 7.6% SwStr% and a bad 4:2 K:BB.
Ronald Acuna Jr. is now at 31 homers and 63 steals, one of the best all-time fantasy seasons, it’s just been insane.
Here’s a quick crappy plot to show you how far ahead of the field he is in fantasy point scoring:
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Max Fried (vs. LAD): 36.75 Points
2. Kodai Senga (vs. SEA): 33.55 Points
3. Freddy Peralta (vs. PHI): 30.3 Points
4. Jordan Lyles (vs. BOS): 29.6 Points
5. Joe Ryan (vs. TEX): 27.7 Points
6. Logan Gilbert (vs. NYM): 26.81 Points
7. Eduardo Rodriguez (vs. CWS): 26.21 Points
8. Max Scherzer (vs. MIN): 25.7 Points
9. Zach Davies (vs. BAL): 24.5 Points
10. Zack Wheeler (vs. MIL): 24.5 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 19 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
2. Eury Perez (MIA): 18 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
3. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 17 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
4. Kodai Senga (NYM): 16 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
5. Max Fried (ATL): 15 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
6. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 15 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
7. Joe Ryan (MIN): 14 Whiffs (74 Pitches)
8. Eduardo Rodriguez (DET): 14 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
9. Jordan Lyles (KC): 13 Whiffs (114 Pitches)
10. Tyler Glasnow (TB): 12 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Hayden Wesneski (CHC): 58.9 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%
2. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 57.4 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
3. Alex Wood (SF): 54.3 Strike%, 30.0 Ball%
4. Joe Ryan (MIN): 54.1 Strike%, 28.4 Ball%
5. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 53.9 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
6. Kodai Senga (NYM): 51.9 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
7. Touki Toussaint (CWS): 51.1 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
8. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 51.1 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
9. Mitch Keller (PIT): 51.0 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
10. Max Fried (ATL): 51.0 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%
11. Drew Smyly (CHC): 50.9 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
12. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 50.5 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
13. JP Sears (OAK): 49.4 Strike%, 30.3 Ball%
14. Justin Verlander (HOU): 48.9 Strike%, 26.1 Ball%
15. Julio Urias (LAD): 48.9 Strike%, 31.5 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
I need to wrap this up but I can’t miss what Hayden Wesneski did last night.
He threw 56 pitches and struck out six Reds. That’s just 3.3 innings of work. His SwStr% was actually quite low (8.9%), but the velo was through the roof:
I suppose this is just because he was in a relief role rather than a starter role so he was letting it right, but it did reach new heights last night - a good sign for a kid that a lot of people had hopes for this year who has largely fallen flat (for fantasy purposes, at least).
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Hayden Wesneski's FF velo (19 pitches) UP 3.4mph to 97.2
Drew Smyly's CU velo (30 pitches) UP 2.7mph to 81.0
Drew Smyly's SI velo (23 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 94.0
Hayden Wesneski's ST velo (27 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 83.7
Cole Irvin's CU velo (10 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 79.1
Joe Ryan's FS velo (22 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 85.4
Michael Wacha's SI velo (21 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 93.2
Max Scherzer's CH velo (10 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 85.2
Lyon Richardson's CH velo (27 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 87.1
Mitch Keller's SI velo (31 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 92.6
Mitch Keller's FF velo (30 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 94.0
Zach Davies's FF velo (37 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 88.0
Graham Ashcraft's FC velo (39 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 94.3
Dakota Hudson's SI velo (47 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 90.1
Eduardo Rodriguez's CH velo (31 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 84.2
Zach Davies's CH velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 79.2
Dakota Hudson's FF velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 89.5
Eduardo Rodriguez's FF velo (35 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 90.4
Hyun Jin Ryu's CU velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 67.6
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Cal Quantrill's CH usage (27.9%) up 16.4 points
Cole Irvin's FC usage (27.3%) up 13.1 points
Dakota Hudson's SI usage (52.2%) up 14.7 points
Eduardo Rodriguez's CH usage (30.1%) up 11.8 points
Eduardo Rodriguez's SL usage (17.5%) up 10.1 points
Hayden Wesneski's ST usage (48.2%) up 14.3 points
Hyun Jin Ryu's FC usage (22.4%) up 11.1 points
Jake Irvin's SI usage (40.0%) up 11.5 points
Jordan Lyles's SI usage (23.7%) up 12.7 points
Kodai Senga's FO usage (36.5%) up 13.7 points
Max Fried's FF usage (47.1%) up 13.2 points
Patrick Sandoval's FF usage (51.9%) up 26.4 points
Touki Toussaint's SI usage (47.9%) up 24.0 points
Zach Davies's FF usage (44.6%) up 26.0 points
Zach Davies's FC usage (21.7%) up 10.5 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Tanner Houck Sinker: +22.9%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +22.8%
Bailey Falter Slider: +19.7%
Jon Gray Slider: +19.4%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +17.8%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -16.7%
Bailey Falter 4-Seam Fastball: -16.4%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -16.1%
J.P. France Curveball: +16.0%
Framber Valdez Changeup: +15.6%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -15.6%
Alex Cobb Split-Finger: +15.5%
Adam Wainwright 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%
Bryce Miller Sinker: +15.2%
Noah Syndergaard Cutter: -15.0%
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: +14.5%
Jake Irvin Sinker: +13.3%
Chris Sale Slider: +13.1%
Aaron Nola 4-Seam Fastball: +13.0%
Touki Toussaint Sinker: +12.9%
Gavin Williams 4-Seam Fastball: -12.9%
Noah Syndergaard Slider: +12.7%
Trevor Williams 4-Seam Fastball: -12.7%
Charlie Morton Cutter: +12.7%
Cal Quantrill Changeup: +12.6%
Lucas Giolito Changeup: +12.5%
Zach Davies Sinker: -12.4%
Adam Wainwright Sinker: -12.3%
Bryan Woo Cutter: +12.2%
Gavin Williams Slider: +12.1%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Charlie Morton - 72 TBF, 37.3% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 71 TBF, 37.0% CSW%
Julio Urias - 101 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Bobby Miller - 72 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 99 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Kyle Bradish - 70 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 103 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Freddy Peralta - 89 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Mitch Keller - 105 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Lucas Giolito - 79 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 89 TBF, 40.4% K%
Charlie Morton - 72 TBF, 40.3% K%
Cole Ragans - 95 TBF, 35.8% K%
Max Scherzer - 87 TBF, 35.6% K%
Spencer Strider - 99 TBF, 34.3% K%
Kodai Senga - 101 TBF, 33.7% K%
Kyle Bradish - 70 TBF, 32.9% K%
Eury Perez - 82 TBF, 32.9% K%
Alec Marsh - 74 TBF, 32.4% K%
Tarik Skubal - 71 TBF, 32.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Charlie Morton - 72 TBF, 34.7% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 89 TBF, 31.5% K-BB%
Kyle Bradish - 70 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Cole Ragans - 95 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 71 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Julio Urias - 101 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 68 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 87 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Justin Steele - 95 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 99 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 104 TBF, 60.2% GB%
Bobby Miller - 72 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Pedro Avila - 75 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 69 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 100 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Alex Cobb - 101 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Framber Valdez - 106 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 70 TBF, 55.8% GB%
David Peterson - 69 TBF, 55.0% GB%
James Paxton - 82 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Civale - 64 TBF, 29.7 K%, 1.6 BB%, 48.8% GB%
Charlie Morton - 72 TBF, 40.3 K%, 5.6 BB%, 47.2% GB%
Cole Ragans - 95 TBF, 35.8 K%, 7.4 BB%, 44.4% GB%
Garrett Whitlock - 52 TBF, 28.8 K%, 7.7 BB%, 43.8% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 95 TBF, 29.5 K%, 5.3 BB%, 45.2% GB%
Justin Steele - 95 TBF, 29.5 K%, 3.2 BB%, 46.0% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 70 TBF, 32.9 K%, 4.3 BB%, 55.8% GB%
Michael King - 55 TBF, 29.1 K%, 7.3 BB%, 48.6% GB%
Robert Garcia - 55 TBF, 29.1 K%, 5.5 BB%, 48.6% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 71 TBF, 32.4 K%, 5.6 BB%, 51.2% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 101 TBF, 29.7 K%, 5.0 BB%, 51.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Graham Ashcraft - +3.0% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Julio Urias - +4.8% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Chris Bassitt - +2.2% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Charlie Morton - +5.4% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Jordan Montgomery - +2.7% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Cole Ragans - +4.0% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Luis Severino - +2.6% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Kyle Bradish - +5.9% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Aaron Civale - +6.6% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Griffin Canning - +5.1% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Adrian Houser - +8.0% CSW%, -5.9 BB%
Taijuan Walker - +2.5% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Ryan Yarbrough - +6.1% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Hitters
Multiple Barrels
C.J. Abrams (WSH) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Nelson Velazquez (KC) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) 5 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Tommy Pham (ARI) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Hardest Hit Balls
Ronny Mauricio (NYM) - 117.3mph - double
Corey Seager (TEX) - 114.4mph - home_run
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 112.4mph - single
Ryan Noda (OAK) - 112.2mph - double
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 112.1mph - home_run
Willson Contreras (STL) - 111.6mph - home_run
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 111.5mph - single
Lane Thomas (WSH) - 111.4mph - home_run
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 111.2mph - double
Jazz Chisholm (MIA) - 111.1mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Harrison Bader - 60 PA, 0.141 wOBA, 0.254 xwOBA, 0.113 Diff
Juan Soto - 86 PA, 0.301 wOBA, 0.4 xwOBA, 0.099 Diff
Alec Bohm - 75 PA, 0.312 wOBA, 0.41 xwOBA, 0.098 Diff
Adley Rutschman - 78 PA, 0.293 wOBA, 0.384 xwOBA, 0.091 Diff
Jose Ramirez - 64 PA, 0.287 wOBA, 0.362 xwOBA, 0.075 Diff
Andruw Monasterio - 62 PA, 0.22 wOBA, 0.29 xwOBA, 0.07 Diff
Salvador Perez - 65 PA, 0.279 wOBA, 0.349 xwOBA, 0.07 Diff
Ryan McMahon - 74 PA, 0.337 wOBA, 0.405 xwOBA, 0.068 Diff
Trent Grisham - 61 PA, 0.228 wOBA, 0.292 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Ildemaro Vargas - 65 PA, 0.212 wOBA, 0.272 xwOBA, 0.06 Diff
Bottom 10
Julio Rodriguez - 75 PA, 0.554 wOBA, 0.403 xwOBA, -0.151 Diff
Adam Duvall - 70 PA, 0.499 wOBA, 0.353 xwOBA, -0.146 Diff
Nolan Jones - 73 PA, 0.413 wOBA, 0.287 xwOBA, -0.126 Diff
Trea Turner - 75 PA, 0.485 wOBA, 0.365 xwOBA, -0.12 Diff
Bryce Harper - 75 PA, 0.54 wOBA, 0.433 xwOBA, -0.107 Diff
Mookie Betts - 74 PA, 0.567 wOBA, 0.461 xwOBA, -0.106 Diff
Kerry Carpenter - 75 PA, 0.425 wOBA, 0.321 xwOBA, -0.104 Diff
Randy Arozarena - 81 PA, 0.428 wOBA, 0.326 xwOBA, -0.102 Diff
Ezequiel Duran - 67 PA, 0.334 wOBA, 0.237 xwOBA, -0.097 Diff
Alex Bregman - 91 PA, 0.464 wOBA, 0.371 xwOBA, -0.093 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Daniel Vogelbach - 58 PA, 34 BIP, 8 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Spencer Torkelson - 81 PA, 47 BIP, 11 Brls, 23.4 Brl%
Brandon Belt - 56 PA, 26 BIP, 6 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
D.J. Stewart - 63 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 54 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 78 PA, 42 BIP, 9 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 84 PA, 62 BIP, 13 Brls, 21.0 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 75 PA, 50 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 71 PA, 45 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 72 PA, 36 BIP, 7 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Marcell Ozuna - 84 PA, 0.519 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 94 PA, 0.468 xwOBA
Mookie Betts - 74 PA, 0.461 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 82 PA, 0.446 xwOBA
Eddie Rosario - 64 PA, 0.441 xwOBA
Bryce Harper - 75 PA, 0.433 xwOBA
Kyle Tucker - 76 PA, 0.421 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 79 PA, 0.42 xwOBA
Kyle Schwarber - 78 PA, 0.419 xwOBA
Jorge Soler - 54 PA, 0.413 xwOBA
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