MLB Daily Notes - September 21st
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Prop bet trackers:
Championship Update!
Pretty much a tie right now. I have a decent hold on AVG/OBP and he has a strong hold on ERA/WHIP, while everything else is well within in the “coin flip” range. He for sure has better SPs to come than me, so QS/W are probably an uphill battle, but I have four extra hitters today so hopefully we can get a step up on R/HR/RBI/SB at some point.
I’m giving PAUL about a 60% chance to take this home right now, but it should be a butt-puckering weekend.
Are we about to get the Cristian Javier of last year again for the 2023 postseason? He had 20 whiffs yesterday with 11 strikeouts on a sick 60.4% Strike%.
Since August 1st he has posted a 12.3% SwStr% and a 23.5% K%, although those numbers are still a long way from his marks in 2022. In these last four starts, he has a 16.3% SwStr% and a 36.6% K%, so that’s a lot more like it.
I have trouble believing that it just clicked for him and he’ll be a high SwStr% guy again after going for just a 12.9% SwStr% over the full sample (29 GS), but it’s something to note. If you’re wondering if this improved performance has come along with a pitch mix change, it has not:
Here’s how the four-seamer and slider have performed over the last few months:
No real changes there on the slider, but the four-seamer has been getting more whiffs (without any extra velocity or spin or anything like that).
So I don’t know, this is most likely just variance - I would still be trusting the bigger sample here. I’m not sure it matters if we get this right or not anyways since the fantasy season is wrapping up in the next 10 days, but it’s something to watch in the playoffs - and Javier getting back on his feet would certainly help the Astros World Series chances - if you’re playing that betting market.
Aaron Nola popped off for a good one:
6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 8 K, 0 BB
It’s been a disappointing year for Nola after a big one last year.
2022: 3.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 29.1% K%, 3.6% BB%
2023: 4.57 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 25.2% K%, 5.8% BB%
Here’s more advanced numbers from his career since 2015:
So you can see this is his lowest K% since 2016 and the SwStr% is down significantly from the last two years as well, not great stuff. All of that will work to make Nola cheap again next year, so I will be right back on him, because that’s just how we need to play this game. Give me a reliable, healthy arm with upside after a bad year every time.
Hunter Greene also ripped apart the Twins to the tune of 14 strikeouts
7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 14 K, 1 BB, 18.5% SwStr%, 58.7% Strike%
We know he can do that - and chances are he’ll be pretty cheap next year as well given his lack of health this year and 4.24 ERA and 1.35 WHIP he currently sits with. He has a 31.5% K% and a 10.1% BB% for a 21.4% K-BB%, so that’s fantastic and it’ll be enough to get me to draft him next year if he falls out of the top 50 or so.
And then man, Kyle Bradish had a big one as well against the ASTROS!
6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 9 K, 2 BB, 18% SwStr%
Big day for these talented pitchers! Here’s what it looked like in the pitch mix:
Threw the slider half the time and it worked great with the 26% SwStr%. For the year:
So he’s been going mostly sliders all year, but the 50% usage last night was an outlier. He still doesn’t seem to have a good fastball, and that will hold him back until he improves on it.
The Orioles seem to have had an extremely lucky year, particularly on the pitching side. I have a theory that if I plot K-BB% against ERA, they will be an outlier. I don’t know if this is true, so here I go to check it:
So I am wrong. They have the 10th best ERA and the 9th best K-BB%, so it lines up how you’d expect.
I don’t think I would be a long-term buyer on Bradish though, the fastball just isn’t there.
And we can’t miss Michael King here who has been popping off lately after being a dude that was a reliever for most of his career! The pitch count has been building, and it’s now fully built. He went for 101 pitches last night with a 15.8% SwStr% and 13 strikeouts!
For the season:
13.0% SwStr%, 48.9% Strike%, 31.2% K%, 6.7% BB%
These numbers can be skewed when you’re looking at a guy that spent time in the bullpen. Typically you’ll see higher K% and SwStr% in the bullpen role because you don’t have any reason to hold back on your “stuff”.
Sine August 24th, when he started to build up that pitch count:
6 GS, 11.9% SwStr%, 37.8% K%, 3.6% BB%
That is a ridiculous 34.2% K-BB% - but if you read my stuff a lot you know what I’m going to say next - the SwStr% just doesn’t match that at all. I mean that’s an insane difference between the SwStr% and the K%, so let’s show that on the scatter plot (using data since 8/23):
So YEAH. If you’re under a 12% SwStr%, you are usually seeing a K% below 25% - but there is King, leading the league at 38%. Let’s take the same date sample and look at CS% vs. SwStr%.
And there he is, leading the league in called strike by a mile. This is an insanely outlierish run for King. Not that it matters with 10 days left in the season, but King is 100% a sell right now - he’s wildly overperforming.
And one last guy to talk about - Reese Olson quality started and beat the Dodgers!
6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 5 K, 2 BB
A pretty bad 11.7% SwStr% with a 44.7% Strike%, so it would seem there’s some luck going on there. I don’t really care for Olson, and I’m guessing he’ll be a little bit overdrafted next year. And this start probably also will make some people start him next week in the finals where he’ll get bombed! You heard it here first!
That’s it that’s all I’ve gotta run!
Pitchers - Yesterday
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Hunter Greene (vs. MIN): 39.35 Points
2. Michael King (vs. TOR): 36.75 Points
3. Kevin Gausman (vs. NYY): 33.9 Points
4. Kyle Bradish (vs. HOU): 29.1 Points
5. Cristian Javier (vs. BAL): 28.25 Points
6. Merrill Kelly (vs. SF): 23.41 Points
7. Reese Olson (vs. LAD): 23.1 Points
8. Angel Zerpa (vs. CLE): 22.19 Points
9. Martin Perez (vs. BOS): 22.11 Points
10. Aaron Nola (vs. ATL): 21.9 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cristian Javier (HOU): 20 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
2. Aaron Nola (PHI): 18 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
3. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 18 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
4. Hunter Greene (CIN): 17 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
5. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 17 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
6. Michael King (NYY): 16 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
7. Mitch Keller (PIT): 14 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
8. Reid Detmers (LAA): 12 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
9. Bobby Miller (LAD): 12 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
10. Bailey Ober (MIN): 12 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Michael King (NYY): 61.4 Strike%, 25.7 Ball%
2. Cristian Javier (HOU): 60.4 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
3. Martin Perez (TEX): 59.4 Strike%, 25.0 Ball%
4. Hunter Greene (CIN): 58.7 Strike%, 31.5 Ball%
5. Justin Steele (CHC): 57.9 Strike%, 27.6 Ball%
6. Aaron Nola (PHI): 55.3 Strike%, 27.7 Ball%
7. Zack Greinke (KC): 54.4 Strike%, 26.3 Ball%
8. Seth Lugo (SD): 53.5 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%
9. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 53.0 Strike%, 38.0 Ball%
10. Reid Detmers (LAA): 51.0 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%
11. Zack Thompson (STL): 50.0 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
12. Bobby Miller (LAD): 50.0 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%
13. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 50.0 Strike%, 39.4 Ball%
14. Aaron Civale (TB): 48.6 Strike%, 39.2 Ball%
15. Angel Zerpa (KC): 47.4 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Velo Changes - Yesterday
George Kirby's SL velo (22 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 88.5
Brayan Bello's SL velo (21 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 87.2
Josiah Gray's SL velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 84.4
Merrill Kelly's CU velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 80.7
Adrian Houser's FF velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 91.8
Angel Zerpa's CH velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 85.6
Reid Detmers's SL velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 87.3
Eury Perez's SL velo (14 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 84.4
Zack Thompson's CU velo (23 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 73.5
Zack Thompson's FC velo (21 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 83.8
Bobby Miller's CH velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 86.2
Zack Thompson's FF velo (44 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 91.3
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Nola's CH usage (22.3%) up 10.1 points
Bobby Miller's FF usage (36.7%) up 10.4 points
Eury Perez's FF usage (60.9%) up 16.2 points
Hunter Greene's SL usage (50.0%) up 10.2 points
Josiah Gray's SI usage (44.0%) up 28.0 points
Josiah Gray's FC usage (28.6%) up 11.3 points
Kyle Bradish's SL usage (50.5%) up 20.0 points
Kyle Bradish's SI usage (30.3%) up 10.2 points
Logan Webb's CH usage (53.9%) up 13.4 points
Lucas Giolito's CH usage (42.9%) up 16.2 points
Martin Perez's SI usage (54.7%) up 11.3 points
Martin Perez's CU usage (14.1%) up 12.2 points
Reese Olson's CH usage (25.5%) up 11.5 points
Reid Detmers's CH usage (22.9%) up 18.7 points
Seth Lugo's ST usage (18.2%) up 16.5 points
Zack Greinke's FF usage (52.6%) up 21.5 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Cal Quantrill Split-Finger: +25.7%
Jose Urena 4-Seam Fastball: -22.4%
Scott Alexander Slider: -21.8%
Bailey Falter Slider: +21.6%
Bailey Falter 4-Seam Fastball: -21.4%
Reid Detmers Slider: -20.9%
Reid Detmers Changeup: +20.0%
Lucas Giolito Changeup: +19.8%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +18.5%
Cal Quantrill Sinker: -17.6%
Kyle Wright Curveball: -16.4%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: +15.6%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: +15.4%
Josiah Gray Slider: -15.4%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -15.3%
Kyle Gibson Sinker: +14.4%
Kyle Gibson Changeup: -14.3%
Jack Flaherty Slider: -14.2%
Ranger Suarez Sinker: -14.2%
Trevor Williams 4-Seam Fastball: -14.0%
Zach Davies 4-Seam Fastball: +13.8%
Seth Lugo Sweeper: +13.7%
Bobby Miller Slider: -13.5%
Jose Urena Sinker: +13.1%
Seth Lugo Curveball: -13.1%
Cal Quantrill Cutter: -12.8%
Kyle Wright 4-Seam Fastball: +12.8%
Jordan Lyles 4-Seam Fastball: -12.7%
Johan Oviedo 4-Seam Fastball: +12.2%
Zack Littell 4-Seam Fastball: -12.1%
Zack Littell Sinker: +12.1%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Hunter Greene - 71 TBF, 35.8% CSW%
Jameson Taillon - 68 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Michael King - 84 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 73 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 93 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 98 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 78 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Cristopher Sanchez - 69 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Blake Snell - 96 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 79 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Hunter Greene - 71 TBF, 40.8% K%
Michael King - 84 TBF, 40.5% K%
Aaron Civale - 79 TBF, 38.0% K%
Spencer Strider - 93 TBF, 36.6% K%
Cristian Javier - 82 TBF, 36.6% K%
Blake Snell - 96 TBF, 35.4% K%
Tarik Skubal - 73 TBF, 34.2% K%
Freddy Peralta - 85 TBF, 34.1% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 95 TBF, 33.7% K%
Nick Pivetta - 79 TBF, 32.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Michael King - 84 TBF, 38.1% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 85 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 71 TBF, 32.4% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 73 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%
Cristian Javier - 82 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 79 TBF, 29.1% K-BB%
Aaron Civale - 79 TBF, 29.1% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 93 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 95 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 78 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 101 TBF, 68.4% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 78 TBF, 64.6% GB%
Brayan Bello - 87 TBF, 60.7% GB%
Brady Singer - 75 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Justin Steele - 97 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Dallas Keuchel - 71 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 68 TBF, 55.1% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 85 TBF, 54.5% GB%
Bryan Woo - 68 TBF, 54.5% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 69 TBF, 54.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Corbin Burnes - 76 TBF, 30.3 K%, 6.6 BB%, 52.1% GB%
David Peterson - 70 TBF, 31.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 53.5% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 85 TBF, 34.1 K%, 1.2 BB%, 54.5% GB%
Jameson Taillon - 68 TBF, 30.9 K%, 2.9 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Jose Berrios - 75 TBF, 29.3 K%, 4.0 BB%, 46.0% GB%
Jose Butto - 67 TBF, 28.4 K%, 7.5 BB%, 46.5% GB%
Justin Steele - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 4.1 BB%, 56.2% GB%
Keaton Winn - 59 TBF, 27.1 K%, 5.1 BB%, 55.0% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 95 TBF, 30.5 K%, 5.3 BB%, 52.5% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 78 TBF, 32.1 K%, 3.8 BB%, 64.6% GB%
Ryan Yarbrough - 52 TBF, 28.8 K%, 3.8 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 73 TBF, 34.2 K%, 4.1 BB%, 47.7% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 95 TBF, 33.7 K%, 5.3 BB%, 44.8% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 92 TBF, 28.3 K%, 7.6 BB%, 44.1% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Justin Verlander - +3.0% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Mike Clevinger - +4.1% CSW%, -7.3 BB%
Kyle Bradish - +2.5% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Cristian Javier - +3.8% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Nick Pivetta - +4.5% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Pablo Lopez - +3.9% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Grayson Rodriguez - +3.3% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Jose Berrios - +2.7% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Tarik Skubal - +5.3% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Kyle Hendricks - +4.0% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Cristopher Sanchez - +3.8% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +2.5% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Jameson Taillon - +7.9% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Jose Urena - +4.5% CSW%, -6.6 BB%
Martin Perez - +4.8% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Tanner Scott - +4.3% CSW%, -10.3 BB%
Hitters
Multiple Barrels
Brandon Drury (LAA) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Cal Raleigh (SEA) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Connor Joe (PIT) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Dominic Canzone (SEA) 3 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ian Happ (CHC) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Josh Bell (MIA) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Mark Vientos (NYM) 4 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Michael Conforto (SF) 3 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Nick Castellanos (PHI) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Dominic Canzone, Yesterday: 111.6 Previous High: 109.9
Hardest Hit Balls
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 114.3mph - field_out
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 113.4mph - single
Brett Baty (NYM) - 113.1mph - home_run
Patrick Wisdom (CHC) - 113.0mph - nan
Francisco Lindor (NYM) - 112.4mph - single
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 111.7mph - field_out
Matt Olson (ATL) - 111.7mph - force_out
Dominic Canzone (SEA) - 111.6mph - home_run
Connor Joe (PIT) - 111.6mph - home_run
Jorge Soler (MIA) - 110.8mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Lars Nootbaar - 76 PA, 0.294 wOBA, 0.375 xwOBA, 0.081 Diff
Giancarlo Stanton - 63 PA, 0.234 wOBA, 0.297 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
Bryce Harper - 82 PA, 0.329 wOBA, 0.388 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
J.T. Realmuto - 62 PA, 0.319 wOBA, 0.378 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
Manny Machado - 67 PA, 0.304 wOBA, 0.359 xwOBA, 0.055 Diff
Josh Lowe - 65 PA, 0.281 wOBA, 0.329 xwOBA, 0.048 Diff
Jake Alu - 60 PA, 0.198 wOBA, 0.244 xwOBA, 0.046 Diff
Jose Abreu - 70 PA, 0.33 wOBA, 0.374 xwOBA, 0.044 Diff
Alec Bohm - 77 PA, 0.319 wOBA, 0.362 xwOBA, 0.043 Diff
Nolan Arenado - 70 PA, 0.241 wOBA, 0.283 xwOBA, 0.042 Diff
Bottom 10
Xander Bogaerts - 78 PA, 0.54 wOBA, 0.305 xwOBA, -0.235 Diff
Willi Castro - 65 PA, 0.402 wOBA, 0.223 xwOBA, -0.179 Diff
TJ Friedl - 70 PA, 0.421 wOBA, 0.273 xwOBA, -0.148 Diff
Mark Canha - 72 PA, 0.426 wOBA, 0.295 xwOBA, -0.131 Diff
Ketel Marte - 75 PA, 0.435 wOBA, 0.305 xwOBA, -0.13 Diff
Mike Yastrzemski - 63 PA, 0.435 wOBA, 0.326 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff
Ceddanne Rafaela - 56 PA, 0.347 wOBA, 0.242 xwOBA, -0.105 Diff
Jose Altuve - 76 PA, 0.439 wOBA, 0.334 xwOBA, -0.105 Diff
Trea Turner - 78 PA, 0.443 wOBA, 0.343 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
Randal Grichuk - 56 PA, 0.379 wOBA, 0.284 xwOBA, -0.095 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Shea Langeliers - 53 PA, 32 BIP, 9 Brls, 28.1 Brl%
Nelson Velazquez - 64 PA, 38 BIP, 10 Brls, 26.3 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 90 PA, 38 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.7 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 87 PA, 73 BIP, 17 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Brent Rooker - 52 PA, 27 BIP, 6 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Logan O'Hoppe - 65 PA, 45 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Yoan Moncada - 66 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 78 PA, 47 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.3 Brl%
Dominic Canzone - 47 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 52 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 87 PA, 0.535 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 78 PA, 0.497 xwOBA
Seiya Suzuki - 80 PA, 0.437 xwOBA
Edward Olivares - 50 PA, 0.432 xwOBA
Royce Lewis - 78 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 83 PA, 0.426 xwOBA
Willson Contreras - 49 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
Matt Olson - 90 PA, 0.424 xwOBA
Michael Harris II - 81 PA, 0.415 xwOBA
Kyle Schwarber - 90 PA, 0.409 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 72 PA, 141 Swings, 96.5 Cont%
Nick Madrigal - 51 PA, 95 Swings, 94.7 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 56 PA, 98 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 81 PA, 111 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 88 PA, 126 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 77 PA, 133 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Myles Straw - 46 PA, 74 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 86 PA, 127 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Sal Frelick - 75 PA, 132 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 47 PA, 73 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Bobby Witt Jr. - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Nolan Jones - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Parker Meadows - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Chas McCormick - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Johan Rojas - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Esteury Ruiz - 14 Attempts (12 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 14 Attempts (11 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 13 Attempts (10 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 13 Attempts (13 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 13 Attempts (11 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 12 Attempts (10 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Nolan Jones - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Tommy Edman - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Chas McCormick - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Brice Turang - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Tommy Pham - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
C.J. Abrams - 73 PA, 19.2 K%, 16.0 Brl%
Dominic Canzone - 47 PA, 17.0 K%, 21.1 Brl%
Dominic Smith - 64 PA, 10.9 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Jose Abreu - 70 PA, 20.0 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Josh Smith - 52 PA, 19.2 K%, 14.7 Brl%
Nolan Jones - 83 PA, 18.1 K%, 17.9 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 87 PA, 6.9 K%, 23.3 Brl%
Royce Lewis - 78 PA, 19.2 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Seiya Suzuki - 80 PA, 17.5 K%, 16.9 Brl%
Willson Contreras - 49 PA, 16.3 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 78 PA, 14.1 K%, 21.3 Brl%
Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers
Shea Langeliers - 84 PA, +0.142 xwOBA
Marcell Ozuna - 120 PA, +0.11 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 130 PA, +0.108 xwOBA
Seiya Suzuki - 122 PA, +0.089 xwOBA
Yoan Moncada - 97 PA, +0.085 xwOBA
Alec Bohm - 116 PA, +0.083 xwOBA
Elehuris Montero - 82 PA, +0.081 xwOBA
Jose Abreu - 93 PA, +0.065 xwOBA
Leody Taveras - 99 PA, +0.063 xwOBA
Kyle Schwarber - 132 PA, +0.061 xwOBA
Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers
Shea Langeliers - 84 PA, +15.9 Brl%
Josh Palacios - 89 PA, +10.3 Brl%
Gabriel Arias - 94 PA, +9.1 Brl%
Dominic Smith - 89 PA, +8.9 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 132 PA, +8.6 Brl%
Yoan Moncada - 97 PA, +8.2 Brl%
Nelson Velazquez - 88 PA, +7.9 Brl%
Lane Thomas - 105 PA, +6.7 Brl%
Brent Rooker - 95 PA, +6.6 Brl%
Luis Robert - 95 PA, +6.4 Brl%
Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers
Kole Calhoun - 104 PA, +13.7 Cont%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 130 PA, +10.3 Cont%
J.D. Davis - 88 PA, +8.0 Cont%
Yordan Alvarez - 119 PA, +7.9 Cont%
Robbie Grossman - 80 PA, +7.7 Cont%
Bobby Witt Jr. - 115 PA, +7.1 Cont%
Mitch Garver - 108 PA, +6.8 Cont%
Ryan O'Hearn - 86 PA, +6.8 Cont%
Ji Hwan Bae - 90 PA, +6.7 Cont%
Michael Massey - 88 PA, +6.4 Cont%
Last 30 Days - K% Improvers
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 130 PA, -12.4 K%
J.D. Davis - 88 PA, -12.3 K%
Yordan Alvarez - 119 PA, -10.9 K%
Nolan Jones - 118 PA, -9.4 K%
Bobby Witt Jr. - 115 PA, -8.8 K%
Bryan De La Cruz - 94 PA, -8.7 K%
Robbie Grossman - 80 PA, -8.5 K%
Jeremy Pena - 122 PA, -8.4 K%
Seiya Suzuki - 122 PA, -8.2 K%
Kole Calhoun - 104 PA, -8.2 K%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Rafael Devers - +7.7% Contact%, +5.2 mph exit velo, -12.6 Chase%
Garrett Hampson - +4.3% Contact%, +3.0 mph exit velo, -7.8 Chase%
Nelson Velazquez - +7.6% Contact%, +6.6 mph exit velo, -6.8 Chase%
Steven Kwan - +3.1% Contact%, +4.3 mph exit velo, -15.6 Chase%
J.T. Realmuto - +8.5% Contact%, +3.1 mph exit velo, -10.6 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Bobby Witt Jr. - 0.385 xwOBA, 10.2% Brl%, 85.6% Contact%, 23.8% Chase%, 6.8% K%
Juan Soto - 0.418 xwOBA, 12.8% Brl%, 81.3% Contact%, 20.4% Chase%, 14.0% K%
Matt Olson - 0.469 xwOBA, 12.2% Brl%, 80.2% Contact%, 23.8% Chase%, 9.0% K%
Rafael Devers - 0.47 xwOBA, 20.5% Brl%, 76.2% Contact%, 24.4% Chase%, 14.5% K%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 0.557 xwOBA, 24.5% Brl%, 84.1% Contact%, 24.3% Chase%, 6.2% K%
Royce Lewis - 0.449 xwOBA, 20.0% Brl%, 76.3% Contact%, 24.1% Chase%, 21.8% K%
Seiya Suzuki - 0.41 xwOBA, 10.5% Brl%, 79.8% Contact%, 14.6% Chase%, 18.9% K%
Yandy Diaz - 0.428 xwOBA, 15.6% Brl%, 77.9% Contact%, 18.4% Chase%, 11.9% K%
Yordan Alvarez - 0.55 xwOBA, 29.0% Brl%, 75.9% Contact%, 20.7% Chase%, 18.5% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Javier Baez - 36.2% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.931 Cold Rating
Zach Neto - 34.4% Whiff%, 76.2% Weak%, 0.921 Cold Rating
Giancarlo Stanton - 39.2% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.919 Cold Rating
Gabriel Arias - 40.6% Whiff%, 67.9% Weak%, 0.903 Cold Rating
Elly De La Cruz - 33.3% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.901 Cold Rating
Eddie Rosario - 38.8% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.871 Cold Rating
Orlando Arcia - 30.6% Whiff%, 80.0% Weak%, 0.856 Cold Rating
Austin Hays - 32.7% Whiff%, 71.0% Weak%, 0.855 Cold Rating
Jazz Chisholm - 40.6% Whiff%, 65.4% Weak%, 0.852 Cold Rating
Taylor Walls - 42.9% Whiff%, 64.3% Weak%, 0.85 Cold Rating
Minor Leagues
Top Minor League Hitting Performances - Yesterday
Connor Norby (BAL): 2/5, 3R, 1HR, 4RBI, 1SB, 36FPts
Levi Jordan (CHC): 2/4, 2R, 2HR, 5RBI, 0SB, 34FPts
Oscar Mercado (LAD): 3/5, 3R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 32FPts
Jorge Barrosa (ARI): 3/6, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 31FPts
Cal Stevenson (PHI): 1/1, 3R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 30FPts
Chase Strumpf (CHC): 3/4, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 30FPts
Michael Perez (NYM): 2/3, 3R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 29FPts
Tyler Wade (OAK): 3/4, 3R, 0HR, 1RBI, 1SB, 28FPts
Jared Oliva (LAA): 3/3, 2R, 0HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 28FPts
Colton Cowser (BAL): 3/4, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 28FPts
Top Minor League Pitching Performances - Yesterday
Denyi Reyes (NYM): 79 Pitches, 6IP, 2H, 1ER, 6K, 1BB, 25FPts
Anthony Molina (TB): 73 Pitches, 6IP, 3H, 0ER, 4K, 1BB, 23FPts
Jake Kalish (LAA): 96 Pitches, 6IP, 8H, 4ER, 8K, 2BB, 19FPts
Garrett Stallings (BAL): 98 Pitches, 5IP, 7H, 3ER, 6K, 0BB, 18FPts
Darren McCaughan (SEA): 102 Pitches, 5IP, 3H, 2ER, 5K, 4BB, 17FPts
Michael Plassmeyer (PHI): 75 Pitches, 5IP, 4H, 1ER, 6K, 2BB, 17FPts
Cody Morris (CLE): 43 Pitches, 3IP, 1H, 0ER, 5K, 1BB, 16FPts
Aaron Shortridge (PIT): 86 Pitches, 5IP, 1H, 1ER, 3K, 4BB, 16FPts
Max Castillo (KC): 79 Pitches, 5IP, 4H, 2ER, 3K, 1BB, 14FPts
Tyson Miller (LAD): 19 Pitches, 2IP, 1H, 0ER, 3K, 0BB, 13FPts
AA-AAA OPS Leaders
Michael Busch (AAA - LAD) 460 PA 1.039 OPS
Austin Shenton (AAA - TB) 562 PA 0.996 OPS
Trey Cabbage (AAA - LAA) 461 PA 0.976 OPS
Coby Mayo (AAA - BAL) 593 PA 0.967 OPS
Coco Montes (AAA - COL) 493 PA 0.958 OPS
Colton Cowser (AAA - BAL) 383 PA 0.955 OPS
Jacob Hurtubise (AAA - CIN) 427 PA 0.951 OPS
TJ Hopkins (AAA - CIN) 380 PA 0.948 OPS
Colt Keith (AAA - DET) 563 PA 0.945 OPS
Troy Johnston (AAA - MIA) 583 PA 0.943 OPS
Matt Kroon (AAA - PHI) 411 PA 0.942 OPS
Matt Mervis (AAA - CHC) 428 PA 0.941 OPS
Tristin English (AAA - ARI) 430 PA 0.934 OPS
Yonathan Perlaza (AAA - CHC) 529 PA 0.93 OPS
Cody Thomas (AAA - OAK) 467 PA 0.926 OPS
Taylor Trammell (AAA - SEA) 387 PA 0.922 OPS
Trenton Brooks (AAA - SF) 509 PA 0.92 OPS
Owen Caissie (AA - CHC) 524 PA 0.919 OPS
Thomas Saggese (AAA - STL) 612 PA 0.917 OPS
Vaughn Grissom (AAA - ATL) 447 PA 0.917 OPS
AA-AAA Pitching K-BB% Leaders
Tobias Myers (AAA - MIL) 138 IP 21.1% K-BB
Dominic Hamel (AA - NYM) 123 IP 21.1% K-BB
Jackson Wolf (AA - PIT) 124 IP 20.4% K-BB
Mason Black (AAA - SF) 118 IP 20.3% K-BB
Brant Hurter (AA - DET) 118 IP 20.1% K-BB
Robert Gasser (AAA - MIL) 135 IP 19.6% K-BB
Ty Madden (AA - DET) 118 IP 19.5% K-BB
Cade Povich (AAA - BAL) 121 IP 19.3% K-BB
Keider Montero (AAA - DET) 106 IP 19.2% K-BB
Richard Fitts (AA - NYY) 152 IP 19.1% K-BB
Jack Cushing (AA - OAK) 124 IP 19.1% K-BB
Carlos Rodriguez (AAA - MIL) 128 IP 18.7% K-BB
DJ Herz (AA - WSH) 94 IP 18.5% K-BB
Rhett Kouba (AAA - HOU) 128 IP 18.4% K-BB
Jared Jones (AAA - PIT) 121 IP 18.2% K-BB
Kai-Wei Teng (AAA - SF) 121 IP 17.8% K-BB
Jacob Lopez (AAA - TB) 102 IP 17.7% K-BB
Domingo Robles (AA - ATL) 127 IP 17.7% K-BB
Walker Powell (AA - CHC) 120 IP 17.6% K-BB
Blayne Enlow (AAA - MIN) 96 IP 17.4% K-BB
Schedules & Streamers
Toughest Upcoming Hitter Schedules - Next 7 Days
TOR - 127.0 Opposing SP Stuff+
WSH - 117.2 Opposing SP Stuff+
CLE - 111.0 Opposing SP Stuff+
MIA - 108.9 Opposing SP Stuff+
CWS - 108.0 Opposing SP Stuff+
Softest Upcoming Hitter Schedules - Next 7 Days
PIT - 77.9 Opposing SP Stuff+
SD - 78.0 Opposing SP Stuff+
OAK - 79.2 Opposing SP Stuff+
LAD - 79.5 Opposing SP Stuff+
CHC - 81.5 Opposing SP Stuff+
Today's SP Streamer Picks
Griffin Canning (18.0% Owned): Projected 5.86IP 2.69ER 6.65SO 2.22BB 16.91FPts
David Peterson (6.0% Owned): Projected 5.47IP 2.77ER 5.93SO 2.24BB 14.64FPts
Ranger Suarez (33.0% Owned): Projected 5.71IP 2.64ER 4.87SO 1.97BB 13.7FPts
OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS
Tyrone Taylor - 35 PA, 1.188 OPS
LaMonte Wade Jr. - 34 PA, 1.145 OPS
Evan Carter - 36 PA, 1.111 OPS
Robbie Grossman - 34 PA, 1.1 OPS
Bo Naylor - 26 PA, 1.1 OPS
Matt Wallner - 29 PA, 1.098 OPS
Brendan Rodgers - 34 PA, 1.004 OPS
Jason Heyward - 28 PA, 0.987 OPS
Luis Campusano - 33 PA, 0.974 OPS
Michael Massey - 27 PA, 0.973 OPS
Today's Hitter Streamer Picks
Joc Pederson OF (13.0% Owned): Projected 0.68R 0.21HR 0.78RBI 0.86SO 0.59BB 0.03SB 8.95FPts
Jack Suwinski RF (17.5% Owned): Projected 0.63R 0.26HR 0.7RBI 1.18SO 0.46BB 0.07SB 8.66FPts
Wilmer Flores 3B (44.0% Owned): Projected 0.67R 0.21HR 0.68RBI 0.68SO 0.47BB 0.0SB 8.59FPts
Luken Baker 1B (0.0% Owned): Projected 0.57R 0.23HR 0.68RBI 0.82SO 0.39BB 0.0SB 8.46FPts
LaMonte Wade Jr. RF (12.0% Owned): Projected 0.75R 0.18HR 0.53RBI 0.9SO 0.66BB 0.04SB 8.41FPts
Mike Yastrzemski CF (12.5% Owned): Projected 0.67R 0.18HR 0.56RBI 1.1SO 0.59BB 0.04SB 8.04FPts
Ronny Mauricio SS (16.0% Owned): Projected 0.59R 0.16HR 0.52RBI 1.0SO 0.24BB 0.1SB 7.92FPts
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B (39.5% Owned): Projected 0.53R 0.11HR 0.55RBI 0.82SO 0.23BB 0.13SB 7.87FPts
Michael Conforto RF (16.0% Owned): Projected 0.61R 0.15HR 0.62RBI 0.88SO 0.58BB 0.02SB 7.71FPts
Ji Hwan Bae CF (6.0% Owned): Projected 0.59R 0.07HR 0.43RBI 0.94SO 0.29BB 0.2SB 7.69FPts
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