MLB Daily Notes - September 3rd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
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A few quite interesting pitching performances yesterday.
Emmet Sheehan returned to the Majors and put up 18 whiffs on 76 pitches against the Braves. That’s a 23.7% SwStr%, and he posted a quite good 52.6% Strike% to boot. The line was just 4 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 6 K, and 3 BB. He’s not interesting for fantasy in the short-term, but we saw some of that big-time swing-and-miss stuff he has been showing in the minors all year long.
It was just another Blake Snell start from Blake Snell. I can’t even really call him inconsistent anymore because he’s just consistently doing this same thing.
6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 8 K, 4 BB, 18.6% SwStr%, 41.6% Ball%
He now leads the league in pitches thrown, which is cool in and of itself - you’ll almost always take the guy that throws the most pitches on your fantasy team.
His 41.9% Ball% on the season is the highest in the league (SPs over 20 GS), but his 15.7% SwStr% is fifth-highest. His 12.8% BIP% (the percent of pitches thrown that get hit into play) is the best in the league, and only Spencer Strider is below 14% - so those two have a huge lead.
Snell is incredibly difficult to hit, but his WHIP will remain mediocre because of all of the walks.
The legend of Griffin Canning continued, he put up another strong start:
6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 7 K, 0 BB
The 13.5% SwStr% was good but not elite, but a 51.7% Strike% and another beautiful K:BB result. He now has a 14.5% SwStr% on the year with a strong 26.8% K% and 6.2% BB%. I’m riding him to the end of home league, but if he stinks the rest of the way that won’t be the worst thing in the world either because fewer people will catch on for next year.
Javier Assad had a great result (8 IP, 0 ER, 7 K, 1 BB), but the SwStr% was just 11.2% and his Strike% was pretty awful at 43.9%. The Reds are just bleeding points to opposing pitchers, so they really can be targeted even at home.
Same thing on the other side of that game with Andrew Abbott. He went for a nice line
6.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 5 K, 2 BB
But the 9.3% SwStr% and 44.3% Strike% were bad. He has had a lot of trouble throwing strikes lately (9.3% BB% for the year, 10.4% in his last 6 starts), and the K% has come down below 25% in these last six. So I’m off of him for now, but he’s a fine streamer in good matchups. The good news is that while this other stuff has been going the wrong way, the FB% has come down (33% in his last six, 38% for the year now). Plenty of reason to be optimistic about the future for him, but he still has some work to do right now - it would seem.
And Kyle Harrison was finally welcomed to the Major Leagues the way every rookie should, giving up six earnies in his 5.2 innings. That was on six hits and two walks. His updated stats for the year:
15.4% SwStr%, 49.0% Strike%, 36.0% Ball%, 32.8% K%, 7.8% BB%, 18.9% GB%
I expect every single one of those numbers to move toward the league average as we finish out this season. But the 15.4% SwStr% is a huge positive for his draft stock next year.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Blake Snell (vs. SF): 29.3 Points
2. Javier Assad (vs. CIN): 27.2 Points
3. Kyle Bradish (vs. ARI): 21.3 Points
4. Griffin Canning (vs. OAK): 21.1 Points
5. Reese Olson (vs. CWS): 19.35 Points
6. Andrew Abbott (vs. CHC): 18.64 Points
7. Paul Blackburn (vs. LAA): 17.05 Points
8. Colin Rea (vs. PHI): 15.94 Points
9. Emmet Sheehan (vs. ATL): 15.4 Points
10. Bryce Elder (vs. LAD): 14.1 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Blake Snell (SD): 21 Whiffs (113 Pitches)
2. Emmet Sheehan (LAD): 18 Whiffs (76 Pitches)
3. Paul Blackburn (OAK): 16 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
4. David Peterson (NYM): 15 Whiffs (77 Pitches)
5. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 15 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
6. Colin Rea (MIL): 14 Whiffs (66 Pitches)
7. Luis Castillo (SEA): 13 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
8. Tanner Houck (BOS): 13 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
9. Kyle Harrison (SF): 12 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
10. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 12 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Luis Severino (NYY): 58.7 Strike%, 27.9 Ball%
2. Colin Rea (MIL): 54.5 Strike%, 30.3 Ball%
3. Emmet Sheehan (LAD): 52.6 Strike%, 38.2 Ball%
4. Griffin Canning (LAA): 51.7 Strike%, 31.5 Ball%
5. Logan Allen (CLE): 50.0 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
6. Johnny Cueto (MIA): 49.4 Strike%, 32.5 Ball%
7. David Peterson (NYM): 48.1 Strike%, 33.8 Ball%
8. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 47.7 Strike%, 38.3 Ball%
9. Tanner Houck (BOS): 47.4 Strike%, 34.7 Ball%
10. Aaron Nola (PHI): 47.4 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%
11. Blake Snell (SD): 46.9 Strike%, 41.6 Ball%
12. Hunter Brown (HOU): 44.7 Strike%, 42.6 Ball%
13. Andrew Abbott (CIN): 44.3 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%
14. Javier Assad (CHC): 43.9 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
15. Mike Clevinger (CWS): 43.7 Strike%, 26.8 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Bryce Elder's SL velo (30 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 84.4
Luis Severino's CH velo (18 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 88.2
Luis Patino's SI velo (21 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 94.8
Zack Littell's SL velo (23 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 89.8
Drew Rom's SI velo (41 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 86.1
Drew Rom's FF velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 88.9
Luis Castillo's CH velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 86.6
Tanner Houck's FS velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 85.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alec Marsh's SI usage (13.3%) up 11.8 points
Blake Snell's CH usage (32.7%) up 14.7 points
Colin Rea's SI usage (43.9%) up 16.1 points
Drew Rom's SI usage (48.8%) up 32.7 points
Emmet Sheehan's CH usage (28.9%) up 14.0 points
Johnny Cueto's SI usage (27.3%) up 10.2 points
Jordan Montgomery's FF usage (25.0%) up 15.3 points
Luis Patino's SI usage (30.9%) up 16.6 points
Zack Littell's SI usage (25.9%) up 23.1 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Josiah Gray Sinker: +22.8%
Bailey Falter Slider: +19.7%
Jon Gray Slider: +19.4%
Alec Marsh Slider: -18.9%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +17.8%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -16.7%
Bailey Falter 4-Seam Fastball: -16.4%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -16.1%
Johnny Cueto Cutter: -16.1%
J.P. France Curveball: +16.0%
Framber Valdez Changeup: +15.6%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -15.6%
Alex Cobb Split-Finger: +15.5%
Adam Wainwright 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%
Bryce Miller Sinker: +15.2%
Noah Syndergaard Cutter: -15.0%
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: +14.5%
Zack Littell Sinker: +14.1%
Tanner Houck Sinker: +13.9%
Zack Littell 4-Seam Fastball: -13.9%
Jake Irvin Sinker: +13.3%
Chris Sale Slider: +13.1%
Touki Toussaint Sinker: +12.9%
Gavin Williams 4-Seam Fastball: -12.9%
Hunter Brown Slider: -12.8%
Noah Syndergaard Slider: +12.7%
Charlie Morton Cutter: +12.7%
Cal Quantrill Changeup: +12.6%
Lucas Giolito Changeup: +12.5%
Zach Davies Sinker: -12.4%
Adam Wainwright Sinker: -12.3%
Bryan Woo Cutter: +12.2%
Gavin Williams Slider: +12.1%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kyle Harrison - 64 TBF, 37.7% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 72 TBF, 37.3% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 71 TBF, 37.0% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 66 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Julio Urias - 101 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 72 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Aaron Civale - 64 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Bobby Miller - 72 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Griffin Canning - 79 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Brandon Woodruff - 67 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cole Ragans - 71 TBF, 40.8% K%
Freddy Peralta - 89 TBF, 40.4% K%
Charlie Morton - 72 TBF, 40.3% K%
Spencer Strider - 72 TBF, 38.9% K%
Nick Pivetta - 66 TBF, 37.9% K%
Max Scherzer - 87 TBF, 35.6% K%
Brandon Woodruff - 67 TBF, 34.3% K%
Kodai Senga - 101 TBF, 33.7% K%
Eury Perez - 82 TBF, 32.9% K%
Griffin Canning - 79 TBF, 32.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cole Ragans - 71 TBF, 36.6% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 72 TBF, 34.7% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 72 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 89 TBF, 31.5% K-BB%
Griffin Canning - 79 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Aaron Civale - 64 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 66 TBF, 27.3% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 71 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Julio Urias - 101 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 87 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kyle Bradish - 95 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Tanner Houck - 67 TBF, 61.7% GB%
Logan Webb - 104 TBF, 60.2% GB%
Bobby Miller - 72 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 69 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 100 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Alex Cobb - 78 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Framber Valdez - 106 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Jesse Scholtens - 66 TBF, 54.7% GB%
James Paxton - 82 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Civale - 64 TBF, 29.7 K%, 1.6 BB%, 48.8% GB%
Charlie Morton - 72 TBF, 40.3 K%, 5.6 BB%, 47.2% GB%
Cole Ragans - 71 TBF, 40.8 K%, 4.2 BB%, 43.6% GB%
Garrett Whitlock - 52 TBF, 28.8 K%, 7.7 BB%, 43.8% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 95 TBF, 29.5 K%, 5.3 BB%, 45.2% GB%
Jhoan Duran - 43 TBF, 32.6 K%, 4.7 BB%, 59.3% GB%
Justin Steele - 74 TBF, 28.4 K%, 4.1 BB%, 53.1% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 95 TBF, 30.5 K%, 6.3 BB%, 62.1% GB%
Robert Garcia - 55 TBF, 29.1 K%, 5.5 BB%, 48.6% GB%
Scott Barlow - 43 TBF, 27.9 K%, 4.7 BB%, 48.1% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 71 TBF, 32.4 K%, 5.6 BB%, 51.2% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 101 TBF, 29.7 K%, 5.0 BB%, 51.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Graham Ashcraft - +3.0% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Mitch Keller - +4.8% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Griffin Canning - +3.9% CSW%, -5.2 BB%
Chris Bassitt - +2.2% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Charlie Morton - +5.4% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Jameson Taillon - +2.6% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Cole Ragans - +4.0% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Aaron Civale - +6.6% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Adrian Houser - +8.0% CSW%, -5.9 BB%
Taijuan Walker - +2.5% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Jhony Brito - +2.7% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Ryan Yarbrough - +6.1% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Hitters
Ronald Acuna Jr. recorded the hardest-hit ball of the year last night off of Sheehan. TO BE HONEST, I’m always a little skeptical of the individual data readings. It would seem possible for a radar gun to not get 100% of readings exactly correct, it seems all technology and processes have some error rate, but what are we to do? Let’s just trust it, because it’s fun.
I’m extra skeptical about that Acuna job because he hadn’t ever previously gone above 118 - so this is a huge jump, but he did just absolutely laser cock that thing so I’ll just believe it.
Multiple Barrels
Dominic Canzone (SEA) 2 PA, 3 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Donovan Solano (MIN) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jake Burger (MIA) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Teoscar Hernandez (SEA) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Ronald Acuna Jr., Yesterday: 121.2 Previous High: 117.9
Hardest Hit Balls
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 121.2mph - home_run
Isaac Paredes (TB) - 113.5mph - foul
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 113.0mph - single
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 112.9mph - force_out
Oscar Colas (CWS) - 112.1mph - single
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 111.7mph - home_run
Seth Brown (OAK) - 111.6mph - double
Riley Adams (WSH) - 111.1mph - foul
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) - 110.7mph - single
Elias Diaz (COL) - 110.2mph - foul
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Harrison Bader - 57 PA, 0.149 wOBA, 0.263 xwOBA, 0.114 Diff
Juan Soto - 86 PA, 0.315 wOBA, 0.406 xwOBA, 0.091 Diff
Alec Bohm - 75 PA, 0.329 wOBA, 0.416 xwOBA, 0.087 Diff
Jose Ramirez - 69 PA, 0.266 wOBA, 0.35 xwOBA, 0.084 Diff
Adley Rutschman - 79 PA, 0.327 wOBA, 0.41 xwOBA, 0.083 Diff
Lawrence Butler - 57 PA, 0.275 wOBA, 0.349 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Salvador Perez - 66 PA, 0.275 wOBA, 0.343 xwOBA, 0.068 Diff
Ryan McMahon - 75 PA, 0.339 wOBA, 0.405 xwOBA, 0.066 Diff
Andruw Monasterio - 62 PA, 0.234 wOBA, 0.293 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
Drew Waters - 64 PA, 0.286 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, 0.056 Diff
Bottom 10
Julio Rodriguez - 75 PA, 0.575 wOBA, 0.422 xwOBA, -0.153 Diff
Nolan Jones - 75 PA, 0.414 wOBA, 0.278 xwOBA, -0.136 Diff
Adam Duvall - 74 PA, 0.493 wOBA, 0.359 xwOBA, -0.134 Diff
Gabriel Moreno - 60 PA, 0.443 wOBA, 0.324 xwOBA, -0.119 Diff
Jeff McNeil - 83 PA, 0.355 wOBA, 0.237 xwOBA, -0.118 Diff
Trea Turner - 76 PA, 0.474 wOBA, 0.365 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff
Bryce Harper - 75 PA, 0.523 wOBA, 0.422 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Randy Arozarena - 81 PA, 0.419 wOBA, 0.321 xwOBA, -0.098 Diff
Anthony Santander - 62 PA, 0.418 wOBA, 0.32 xwOBA, -0.098 Diff
Josh Rojas - 56 PA, 0.405 wOBA, 0.311 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff
How about D.J. Stewart, eh?
108 PA, .272/.352/.652, 10 HR, 17.7% Brl%, 29.6% K%
So yeah it’s another guy swinging for the fences and being pretty lucky over a short PA sample, a tale as old as time, but it’s working for now. His 64.5% Contact% is awful, so this really isn’t someone to add - but he’s helped your fantasy team big time if you somehow for some reason picked him up at the beginning of this.
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
D.J. Stewart - 63 PA, 37 BIP, 9 Brls, 24.3 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 78 PA, 42 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.8 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 54 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Brandon Belt - 56 PA, 27 BIP, 6 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 80 PA, 42 BIP, 9 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Daniel Vogelbach - 56 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Trea Turner - 76 PA, 54 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.4 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 83 PA, 54 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.4 Brl%
Brent Rooker - 79 PA, 46 BIP, 9 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 78 PA, 56 BIP, 11 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Marcell Ozuna - 78 PA, 0.524 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 89 PA, 0.457 xwOBA
Kyle Schwarber - 78 PA, 0.452 xwOBA
Mookie Betts - 79 PA, 0.451 xwOBA
Eddie Rosario - 60 PA, 0.442 xwOBA
D.J. Stewart - 63 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
Max Kepler - 62 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Teoscar Hernandez - 83 PA, 0.427 xwOBA
Brandon Belt - 56 PA, 0.424 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 78 PA, 0.423 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 75 PA, 130 Swings, 91.5 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 63 PA, 94 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Anthony Santander - 62 PA, 117 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 46 PA, 74 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Justin Turner - 75 PA, 131 Swings, 87.8 Cont%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 89 PA, 154 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Mauricio Dubon - 50 PA, 97 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 83 PA, 158 Swings, 87.3 Cont%
Ha-Seong Kim - 89 PA, 142 Swings, 87.3 Cont%
Travis Jankowski - 47 PA, 70 Swings, 87.1 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Randy Arozarena - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Cody Bellinger - 5 Attempts (2 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Michael Harris II - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
George Springer - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Geraldo Perdomo - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Whit Merrifield - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Noelvi Marte - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Andrew Velazquez - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Trea Turner - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Ryan McKenna - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Rafael Ortega - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Leody Taveras - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Luis Robert - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Amed Rosario - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Dylan Moore - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Tommy Edman - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Julio Rodriguez - 14 Attempts (10 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 14 Attempts (13 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 14 Attempts (12 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 13 Attempts (10 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 12 Attempts (11 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 11 Attempts (8 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
TJ Friedl - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Bryce Harper - 75 PA, 16.0 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Carlos Santana - 67 PA, 13.4 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Christian Walker - 79 PA, 16.5 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Eddie Rosario - 60 PA, 16.7 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 75 PA, 16.0 K%, 15.3 Brl%
Kyle Tucker - 75 PA, 16.0 K%, 17.0 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 78 PA, 14.1 K%, 19.6 Brl%
Mitch Garver - 68 PA, 17.6 K%, 19.0 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 89 PA, 9.0 K%, 16.2 Brl%
Shea Langeliers - 52 PA, 19.2 K%, 16.2 Brl%
Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers
Marcell Ozuna - 120 PA, +0.124 xwOBA
Max Kepler - 97 PA, +0.116 xwOBA
Julio Rodriguez - 112 PA, +0.104 xwOBA
J.P. Crawford - 82 PA, +0.093 xwOBA
Eddie Rosario - 90 PA, +0.091 xwOBA
Ty France - 113 PA, +0.085 xwOBA
Alec Bohm - 114 PA, +0.085 xwOBA
D.J. Stewart - 80 PA, +0.081 xwOBA
Gabriel Arias - 82 PA, +0.08 xwOBA
Gleyber Torres - 113 PA, +0.069 xwOBA
Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers
Spencer Torkelson - 117 PA, +11.0 Brl%
J.P. Crawford - 82 PA, +10.3 Brl%
Trea Turner - 116 PA, +10.1 Brl%
D.J. Stewart - 80 PA, +9.5 Brl%
D.J. LeMahieu - 92 PA, +9.0 Brl%
Gabriel Arias - 82 PA, +8.5 Brl%
Christian Walker - 111 PA, +7.4 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 111 PA, +7.2 Brl%
Max Kepler - 97 PA, +6.9 Brl%
Nolan Jones - 110 PA, +6.9 Brl%
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