MLB Daily Notes - September 3rd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Pitcher Review
There are some streamer picks in the Starts & Sits article that is in your inbox from this morning - so check on that. There are a lot of enticing guys today and tomorrow that you can probably stream in.
Gerrit Cole tops the board from yesterday.
6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 R, 9 K, 1 BB, 17.1% SwStr%, 52.4% Strike%
The fastball was awesome with a 24.4% SwStr% on the day, and that was way up from his 11.1% mark prior. The velocity is still not where it used to be. He averaged 95.7 yesterday and is at 96.0 for the year - but it was very good to see the pitch dominate again. Cole is now at a 12.6% SwStr% and 35% Ball% for the year. Those numbers aren’t great, but they’re improving.
Logan Gilbert was also great with a 9:1 K:BB in six innings. He’s had a great year, but it’s not worth our time to talk more about that!
I hope people started Joe Musgrove yesterday. I’ve been pumping him up since he came off the IL and he threw a gem yesterday:
6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 8 K, 2 BB, 16.0% SwStr%, 51.1% Strike%, 35.1% Ball%
He now has a 13.3% SwStr% and a 35% Ball% on the year. He’s had some bad luck with a high barrel rate allowed (11.5%). His ground ball rate is lower (42%), so he’ll give up some homers - but it’s unlikely for a barrel rate allowed to stay above 11%. Keep starting big Joe.
Jared Jones is of interest to us. Mostly because he’s my boyfriend, but also because he’s available in some leagues and has the ability to put up fantastic numbers. Those fantastic numbers have not shown up in these first two starts off the IL, but he got a decent result in the box score yesterday:
6.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 4 K, 1 BB, 11.5% SwStr%, 47.1% Strike%, 31% Ball%
The good news was the Ball%. He started the year throwing an absolute mind-boggling number of strikes. That came back to earth as we got into June, and then right before and right after this injury, the numbers were flat out bad.
So he needs to throw fewer balls, and he did that yesterday. The bad news was that it didn’t come up with whiffs. You see those elite swinging strike rates he posted early on. He just hasn’t come close to those since mid-May. And since his return from the IL he has just a 10.6% SwStr% on 170 pitches.
He is not who he was in April, and probably will never be again - but I am still starting him in deeper leagues right now because of the upside. If he goes out there and has strong command of both the fastball and slider, the strikeouts will pile up.
Gavin Williams is another guy that might be available to you, and he had his best outing of the year yesterday.
7 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 6 K, 2 BB, 10.2% SwStr%, 46.9% Strike%
Not many whiffs, but he got 21 outs and allowed just three base-runners, so that’s a positive. His season line now:
12.3% SwStr%, 49.0% Strike%, 35.4% Ball%, 24.9% K%, 8.9% BB%, 2.02 WHIP+
It’s pretty mediocre across the board. He should be viewed as more of a streamer than an every week starter right now, and I don’t think I’d want to start him this weekend against the Dodgers.
Jack Leiter made another start and once again was awful:
5 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 K, 0 BB, 11.2% SwStr%
The stuff has not played in the big leagues.
AAA: 33.3% K%
MLB: 13.4% K%
Pretty wild to see that huge of a gap. He’s thrown just 18.1 innings in the Majors, but he’s not up to the challenge as of right now. I would not roll him out there in any kind of fantasy league.
There are a ton of interesting SPs to watch coming up today and tomorrow, so we’ll hit more pitchers here tomorrow.
Hitter Review
I haven’t gotten into hitters very often in the daily notes. There just isn’t typically much to learn from one day’s worth of baseball on the hitting front, and by the time I get through the pitcher review it’s usually later in my morning and I have to bail to get to other stuff.
The automated part of these notes is very good for hitter analysis. You can take a lot of things from down there and run with them yourself. Let’s take a look at the Magic Formula Qualifiers today.
Most days, this isn’t very useful. It’s hard to be an MFQ; you have to be very good. If you’re very good, you’re probably not available in fantasy leagues. It’s a vote of confidence to keep starting Lawrence Butler and Joc Pederson in September.
At this point in the fantasy season, there’s not a whole lot you can do on the hitting front anyways. If you’re still competing, your team is probably pretty good - so it’s less likely you need help anyways. By now, most all of those breakout hitters have been identified and rostered, so it’s pretty rare that we luck into a late-season add that makes a big difference.
Spencer Torkelson could be one of those guys for you though. Since he’s returned to the Majors:
64 PA, .288/.344/.576, 4 HR, 16.2% Brl%, 34.4% K%, .267 xBA, .355 xwOBA
He’s doing a lot of damage on contact, but that strikeout rate continues to be alarming. He’s also benefited from a .394 BABIP, so there will likely be worse days ahead - but the barrels are nice to see.
His teammate Parker Meadows has also been quite good in the second half:
.309/.343/.521, 2 HR, 6.6% Brl%, 18.2% K%, .306 xBA, .354 xwOBA
He’s a good add for some potential batting average and steals help - and he’ll hit a homer every once in awhile to boot.
JJ Bleday is on another heater. He’s slugging a huge .608 in the second half with a 9.6% Brl% and nine homers. He has taken the strikeout rate down to another level at 17.5%. Very impressive stuff, he’s having a strong season.
And more desperation name to consider - Mickey Moniak. This guy is a wild swinger with a strikeout issue, but lately he’s been very good. In the second half:
.284/.321/.549, 7 HR, 13.2% Brl%, 24.8% K%
Remember that he had a pretty nice finish to the season last year as well. He is the type of player that can light it up for a short period of time when he’s getting pitches to hit. He swings hard and has plenty of raw talent.
But given his lack of discipline (56.7% Swing%) and contact ability (71% Contact% on the year), there will be brutal cold stretches. I would expect another one to hit pretty soon - but in the meantime he might be able to add enough homers and steals to matter in some leagues.
A member of the Discord server asked me to discuss Connor Norby, Dylan Crews, and Junior Caminero. It’s pretty egregious I haven’t even mentioned Crews in these notes. So let’s clean that up.
Dylan Crews so far:
26 PA, .240/.269/.560, 2 HR, 15.8% Brl%, 23.1% K%, 3.8% BB%, 67% Cont%, .237 xBA, .331 xwOBA
So there’s been pop in the bat with that .560 SLG. That’s a bit surprising since he slugged just .451 in the minors this year. I don’t think he’s going to be a great slugging guy right away. His bat speed is just slightly above average from the 42 swings we’ve tracked so far, and his AAA Brl% was just 7.6%.
This is 26 PAs, so it’s really hard to judge, but you don’t like to see the early sign of the 67% contact rate. That must get into the mid-70’s for him to do real damage (assuming we’re right he doesn’t have a ton of raw power right now). I would not be very interested in him at all in a 12-team league. So that’s my take.
The guy here that does have raw power is Junior Caminero. His bat speed leads the Rays and his sixth-highest in baseball (Stanton, Cruz, Wallner, Schwarber, Noel). So we can put up with some strikeouts from him since he’ll be hitting the ball very hard when he does make contact. The profile so far:
76 PA, .275/.342/.478, 3 HR, 9.8% Brl%, 23.7% K%, 7.9% BB%, 67.9% Cont%, .238 xBA, .323 xwOBA, 51% GB%
So the strikeout rate is good, but the contact rate is very bad. I think there will be more strikeouts very soon.
We can deal with a 27% or so K% provided the homers are coming. They homers haven’t come very frequently so far, but that’s not because of his exit velocity (his 109.2 90th-percentile EV ranks 14th-best in baseball). He just hasn’t found the proper angle range yet:
His average angle is 2.4 degrees, and his median is 5.0. So he’s hitting a lot of ground balls and low line drives. This was an issue for him in AAA as well (52% GB%, 5.8 degree average), so I think it’s fair to say it will continue at least for this year. He’s certainly a nice breakout pick for next year, the skills are there to make him one of the best power hitters in the league - but he has to adjust to high-level pitching first.
And as for Connor Norby. He’s had just 85 PAs in the Majors:
.263/.306/.538, .843 OPS, 29.4% K%, 5.9% BB%, 12.7% Brl%, 66.3% Contact%, .193 xBA, .265 xwOBA
He’s looking the worst of the trio. Too many strikeouts. Unlike Caminero, his exit velocities are low. His 90th-percentile mark is 101.3, that’s really, really low. So I don’t believe in the 12.7% Brl% at all. The one point in his favor is that he has been able to lift the ball without any trouble.
His average LA is 16.9 and the median is 22. Those are great.
It takes two things to hit a home run - velo & angle. Caminero has the velo, not the angle. Norby has the angle, not the velo.
Showing their placement on the median launch angle vs. 90th-percentile EV plot:
You see that Norby is the only red dot in that area. That means the Brl% will come down, there’s no escaping it! And the higher up Caminero’s dot can get on the y-axis, the redder it will become as well. There’s a very nice relationship between angle, velo, and barrel rate - and that plot displays it well. You can check out the interactive plot here.
If I’m adding any of those three guys, it would be Caminero. He’s the one with the clearest path to a big month. If he averages 15 degrees of launch angle for a month, he’ll probably hit 5-10 homers. I doubt it will happen, but it’s possible.
That’ll do it for today’s daily notes. If there’s any kind of specific content or analysis you think it would be better for me to feature for the rest of the season, please reach out - I’m open to ideas.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Gerrit Cole
2. Joe Musgrove
3. Logan Gilbert
4. Jared Jones
5. Luis Severino
6. Zack Littell
7. Gavin Williams
8. Chris Flexen
9. Michael Wacha
10. Jack Flaherty
11. Simeon Woods Richardson
12. Jack Leiter
13. Jameson Taillon
14. Osvaldo Bido
15. Corbin Burnes
16. Freddy Peralta
17. Brayan Bello
18. Julian Aguiar
19. Andre Pallante
20. Justin Verlander
21. Eduardo Rodriguez
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Joe Musgrove (vs. DET): 30.5 Points
2. Gerrit Cole (vs. TEX): 30.5 Points
3. Gavin Williams (vs. KC): 27.95 Points
4. Jack Flaherty (vs. ARI): 23.96 Points
5. Luis Severino (vs. BOS): 22.95 Points
6. Logan Gilbert (vs. OAK): 20.5 Points
7. Jameson Taillon (vs. PIT): 19.35 Points
8. Corbin Burnes (vs. CWS): 17.05 Points
9. Josh Winckowski (vs. NYM): 13.55 Points
10. Kyle Leahy (vs. MIL): 13.24 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 16 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
2. Joe Musgrove (SD): 15 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
3. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 14 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
4. Chris Flexen (CWS): 14 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
5. Luis Severino (NYM): 12 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
6. Jack Flaherty (LAD): 12 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
7. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 12 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
8. Zack Littell (TB): 11 Whiffs (78 Pitches)
9. Gavin Williams (CLE): 10 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
10. Jared Jones (PIT): 10 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 52.4 Strike%, 31.7 Ball%
2. Joe Musgrove (SD): 51.1 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
3. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 50.5 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
4. Chase Anderson (TEX): 47.6 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%
5. Jared Jones (PIT): 47.1 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%
6. Luis Severino (NYM): 47.0 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
7. Gavin Williams (CLE): 46.9 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
8. Ty Madden (DET): 46.4 Strike%, 26.8 Ball%
9. Osvaldo Bido (OAK): 46.2 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
10. Michael Wacha (KC): 45.9 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%
11. Julian Aguiar (CIN): 45.3 Strike%, 37.7 Ball%
12. Brayan Bello (BOS): 45.1 Strike%, 36.3 Ball%
13. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 45.1 Strike%, 33.8 Ball%
14. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 43.8 Strike%, 31.5 Ball%
15. Jack Flaherty (LAD): 43.8 Strike%, 42.7 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jameson Taillon: 89 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.24 POUT
2. Gerrit Cole: 82 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.56 POUT
3. Jared Jones: 87 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.58 POUT
4. Gavin Williams: 98 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.67 POUT
5. Ty Madden: 56 Pitches, 12 Outs, 4.67 POUT
6. Luis Severino: 100 Pitches, 20 Outs, 5.0 POUT
7. Joe Musgrove: 94 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.22 POUT
8. Logan Gilbert: 95 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.28 POUT
9. Jack Leiter: 80 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.33 POUT
10. Michael Wacha: 85 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.67 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Gavin Williams's SL velo (12 pitches) UP 3.6mph to 89.4
Logan Gilbert's CU velo (14 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 83.7
Jack Leiter's CU velo (10 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 82.7
Gavin Williams's CU velo (26 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 79.8
Michael Wacha's SI velo (13 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 94.6
Michael Wacha's FC velo (12 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 89.4
Carson Spiers's ST velo (13 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 82.7
Freddy Peralta's CU velo (19 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 78.7
Osvaldo Bido's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 86.5
Logan Gilbert's FF velo (27 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 97.5
Jameson Taillon's FC velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 86.0
Simeon Woods Richardson's CH velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 81.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Carson Spiers's FF usage (46.2%) up 16.0 points
Jameson Taillon's SI usage (34.8%) up 24.4 points
Jared Jones's SL usage (48.3%) up 11.8 points
Ty Madden's FS usage (19.6%) up 11.7 points
Zack Littell's FF usage (46.2%) up 20.3 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Justin Wrobleski Curveball: +20.7%
Yusei Kikuchi Slider: +19.9%
Jack Kochanowicz Sinker: +18.1%
Ty Blach Sinker: -18.1%
Edward Cabrera 4-Seam Fastball: +16.9%
JP Sears 4-Seam Fastball: +16.7%
Bowden Francis Split-Finger: +16.3%
Bailey Falter Slider: +16.3%
Cooper Criswell Sweeper: -16.1%
Jameson Taillon Sinker: +16.1%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -15.7%
JP Sears Sweeper: -15.4%
Bowden Francis Curveball: -15.3%
Edward Cabrera Changeup: -15.3%
Nick Nastrini Slider: +15.1%
Jack Kochanowicz Curveball: -14.0%
Nick Nastrini 4-Seam Fastball: -13.8%
Cooper Criswell Sinker: +13.8%
Martin Perez Curveball: +13.6%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -13.6%
Taijuan Walker Split-Finger: +13.3%
Ronel Blanco Curveball: +13.2%
Ronel Blanco Changeup: -12.8%
Justin Wrobleski Slider: -12.7%
Ryan Pepiot Slider: -12.3%
Osvaldo Bido 4-Seam Fastball: -12.2%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 69 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Michael King - 94 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 87 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 95 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Sean Manaea - 101 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Brady Singer - 72 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 71 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Chris Sale - 77 TBF, 32.3% CSW%
Yusei Kikuchi - 94 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
Jose Berrios - 103 TBF, 31.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cole Ragans - 90 TBF, 34.4% K%
Reynaldo Lopez - 67 TBF, 34.3% K%
Bryce Miller - 68 TBF, 33.8% K%
Framber Valdez - 71 TBF, 33.8% K%
Logan Gilbert - 96 TBF, 33.3% K%
Blake Snell - 69 TBF, 33.3% K%
Paul Skenes - 65 TBF, 32.3% K%
Bowden Francis - 75 TBF, 32.0% K%
Tarik Skubal - 95 TBF, 31.6% K%
Gavin Stone - 90 TBF, 30.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Bryce Miller - 68 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 96 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Bowden Francis - 75 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Reynaldo Lopez - 67 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 71 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 95 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 97 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Sean Manaea - 101 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 94 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
Gavin Stone - 90 TBF, 24.4% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cristopher Sanchez - 82 TBF, 65.0% GB%
Framber Valdez - 71 TBF, 63.4% GB%
Logan Webb - 103 TBF, 62.8% GB%
Patrick Corbin - 65 TBF, 62.8% GB%
Max Meyer - 70 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Andre Pallante - 104 TBF, 59.7% GB%
Brayan Bello - 98 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Jack Kochanowicz - 72 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Paul Skenes - 65 TBF, 56.8% GB%
Tanner Houck - 106 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 71 TBF, 33.8 K%, 7.0 BB%, 63.4% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 45 TBF, 46.7 K%, 2.2 BB%, 52.2% GB%
Gavin Stone - 90 TBF, 30.0 K%, 5.6 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 87 TBF, 29.9 K%, 5.7 BB%, 43.6% GB%
Justin Steele - 55 TBF, 34.5 K%, 5.5 BB%, 60.6% GB%
Matthew Liberatore - 46 TBF, 28.3 K%, 2.2 BB%, 45.2% GB%
Reynaldo Lopez - 67 TBF, 34.3 K%, 7.5 BB%, 48.7% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 95 TBF, 31.6 K%, 5.3 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 94 TBF, 29.8 K%, 4.3 BB%, 48.4% GB%
Zach Eflin - 48 TBF, 35.4 K%, 2.1 BB%, 53.3% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Garrett Crochet: 7.25 ERA, 1.59 SIERA
Taj Bradley: 10.42 ERA, 5.12 SIERA
Roddery Munoz: 10.8 ERA, 5.51 SIERA
Mitch Keller: 7.46 ERA, 3.88 SIERA
Hayden Birdsong: 8.68 ERA, 5.21 SIERA
Brandon Pfaadt: 5.9 ERA, 3.13 SIERA
Miles Mikolas: 6.44 ERA, 3.82 SIERA
George Kirby: 6.84 ERA, 4.38 SIERA
Brady Singer: 5.53 ERA, 3.25 SIERA
Max Meyer: 7.46 ERA, 5.22 SIERA
Luckiest
David Peterson: 1.65 ERA, 4.75 SIERA
Albert Suarez: 1.19 ERA, 4.03 SIERA
Hunter Brown: 1.45 ERA, 3.81 SIERA
Kevin Gausman: 2.2 ERA, 4.51 SIERA
Pablo Lopez: 1.71 ERA, 3.98 SIERA
Joe Musgrove: 1.3 ERA, 3.51 SIERA
Jose Berrios: 1.56 ERA, 3.44 SIERA
Valente Bellozo: 4.39 ERA, 6.11 SIERA
Osvaldo Bido: 2.36 ERA, 4.07 SIERA
Freddy Peralta: 3.24 ERA, 4.93 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Jose Berrios - +2.4% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Sean Manaea - +4.9% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Bryan Woo - +2.1% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Michael Wacha - +3.4% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Osvaldo Bido - +2.9% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Ben Lively - +2.6% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Bowden Francis - +2.9% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - +4.8% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Brady Singer - +3.1% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Garrett Crochet - +4.1% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Jon Singleton (HOU) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Lawrence Butler (OAK) 4 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Parker Meadows (DET) 3 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Shea Langeliers (OAK) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Willy Adames (MIL) 4 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Hardest Hit Balls
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) - 117.2mph - single
Jarren Duran (BOS) - 113.9mph - single
Trevor Larnach (MIN) - 112.5mph - home_run
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 112.4mph - home_run
Tommy Edman (LAD) - 111.7mph - nan
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 111.4mph - field_out
Matt Wallner (MIN) - 110.9mph - single
Juan Soto (NYY) - 110.7mph - single
Josh Smith (TEX) - 110.1mph - nan
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 109.9mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Lenyn Sosa - 55 PA, 0.197 wOBA, 0.298 xwOBA, 0.101 Diff
Francisco Alvarez - 55 PA, 0.169 wOBA, 0.256 xwOBA, 0.087 Diff
Jackson Merrill - 75 PA, 0.385 wOBA, 0.464 xwOBA, 0.079 Diff
Carlos Santana - 71 PA, 0.287 wOBA, 0.362 xwOBA, 0.075 Diff
Cal Raleigh - 67 PA, 0.198 wOBA, 0.271 xwOBA, 0.073 Diff
Max Schuemann - 66 PA, 0.211 wOBA, 0.279 xwOBA, 0.068 Diff
Michael Conforto - 57 PA, 0.292 wOBA, 0.358 xwOBA, 0.066 Diff
Rhys Hoskins - 65 PA, 0.242 wOBA, 0.305 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
Steven Kwan - 86 PA, 0.203 wOBA, 0.26 xwOBA, 0.057 Diff
Alex Verdugo - 70 PA, 0.252 wOBA, 0.305 xwOBA, 0.053 Diff
Bottom 10
Tyler Stephenson - 66 PA, 0.452 wOBA, 0.332 xwOBA, -0.12 Diff
JJ Bleday - 77 PA, 0.412 wOBA, 0.309 xwOBA, -0.103 Diff
Mark Vientos - 80 PA, 0.408 wOBA, 0.326 xwOBA, -0.082 Diff
Geraldo Perdomo - 77 PA, 0.364 wOBA, 0.285 xwOBA, -0.079 Diff
Daulton Varsho - 67 PA, 0.371 wOBA, 0.293 xwOBA, -0.078 Diff
Garrett Mitchell - 59 PA, 0.376 wOBA, 0.301 xwOBA, -0.075 Diff
Jarren Duran - 83 PA, 0.437 wOBA, 0.362 xwOBA, -0.075 Diff
Ty France - 60 PA, 0.4 wOBA, 0.325 xwOBA, -0.075 Diff
Rowdy Tellez - 56 PA, 0.362 wOBA, 0.288 xwOBA, -0.074 Diff
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 67 PA, 0.407 wOBA, 0.334 xwOBA, -0.073 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Giancarlo Stanton - 62 PA, 35 BIP, 12 Brls, 34.3 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 77 PA, 47 BIP, 13 Brls, 27.7 Brl%
Paul DeJong - 58 PA, 29 BIP, 7 Brls, 24.1 Brl%
Riley Greene - 57 PA, 29 BIP, 7 Brls, 24.1 Brl%
Jhonkensy Noel - 65 PA, 34 BIP, 8 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Brandon Marsh - 55 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Francisco Lindor - 91 PA, 63 BIP, 13 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
George Springer - 73 PA, 49 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.4 Brl%
Corbin Carroll - 82 PA, 59 BIP, 12 Brls, 20.3 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 57 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 77 PA, 0.487 xwOBA
Jackson Merrill - 75 PA, 0.464 xwOBA
Francisco Lindor - 91 PA, 0.447 xwOBA
Corbin Carroll - 82 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 86 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 68 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
Jackson Chourio - 79 PA, 0.439 xwOBA
Joc Pederson - 57 PA, 0.437 xwOBA
Giancarlo Stanton - 62 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Matt Olson - 82 PA, 0.429 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 78 PA, 147 Swings, 95.9 Cont%
Sal Frelick - 59 PA, 114 Swings, 92.1 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 70 PA, 113 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Jonah Bride - 73 PA, 118 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Masataka Yoshida - 69 PA, 115 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 86 PA, 135 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Nolan Schanuel - 66 PA, 105 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Anthony Rendon - 58 PA, 95 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Matt Vierling - 68 PA, 103 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 62 PA, 118 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 6 Attempts (4 steals)
Dylan Moore - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Garrett Mitchell - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Victor Robles - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Oneil Cruz - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Zack Gelof - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Jackson Merrill - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Bryson Stott - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
James Wood - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Jose Ramirez - 16 Attempts (14 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 14 Attempts (14 steals)
James Wood - 12 Attempts (8 steals)
Xavier Edwards - 11 Attempts (11 steals)
Tyler Fitzgerald - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Luis Robert - 10 Attempts (6 steals)
Dylan Moore - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Jose Caballero - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Brice Turang - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Josh Lowe - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Jarren Duran - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Oneil Cruz - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Bobby Witt Jr. - 86 PA, 15.1 K%, 16.9 Brl%
Corbin Carroll - 82 PA, 18.3 K%, 20.3 Brl%
George Springer - 73 PA, 17.8 K%, 20.4 Brl%
Jackson Merrill - 75 PA, 12.0 K%, 17.5 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 57 PA, 19.3 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Juan Soto - 80 PA, 17.5 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Lawrence Butler - 77 PA, 9.1 K%, 16.9 Brl%
Matt Olson - 82 PA, 17.1 K%, 18.3 Brl%
Will Smith - 54 PA, 18.5 K%, 15.8 Brl%
William Contreras - 81 PA, 19.8 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers
Jackson Chourio - 121 PA, +0.124 xwOBA
Jackson Merrill - 113 PA, +0.111 xwOBA
Joc Pederson - 88 PA, +0.096 xwOBA
Michael Conforto - 97 PA, +0.096 xwOBA
Ramon Urias - 80 PA, +0.094 xwOBA
Corbin Carroll - 120 PA, +0.091 xwOBA
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 98 PA, +0.091 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 123 PA, +0.089 xwOBA
William Contreras - 121 PA, +0.087 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 110 PA, +0.085 xwOBA
Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers
Giancarlo Stanton - 88 PA, +11.2 Brl%
Corbin Carroll - 120 PA, +10.3 Brl%
Jackson Merrill - 113 PA, +9.9 Brl%
Alex Bregman - 90 PA, +9.7 Brl%
George Springer - 105 PA, +7.6 Brl%
Ian Happ - 114 PA, +7.4 Brl%
Derek Hill - 93 PA, +7.2 Brl%
Willy Adames - 117 PA, +6.9 Brl%
Juan Soto - 123 PA, +6.8 Brl%
Ramon Urias - 80 PA, +6.7 Brl%
Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers
Lawrence Butler - 108 PA, +12.0 Cont%
Enrique Hernandez - 87 PA, +10.2 Cont%
Shea Langeliers - 97 PA, +9.5 Cont%
Aaron Judge - 111 PA, +9.0 Cont%
Bryce Harper - 116 PA, +8.5 Cont%
MJ Melendez - 88 PA, +7.8 Cont%
William Contreras - 121 PA, +7.6 Cont%
Jonah Bride - 113 PA, +7.5 Cont%
Lenyn Sosa - 86 PA, +7.4 Cont%
Masataka Yoshida - 108 PA, +7.0 Cont%
Last 30 Days - K% Improvers
Lawrence Butler - 108 PA, -13.1 K%
Parker Meadows - 99 PA, -11.1 K%
Jo Adell - 97 PA, -10.8 K%
Lenyn Sosa - 86 PA, -10.6 K%
Shea Langeliers - 97 PA, -10.3 K%
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 98 PA, -9.3 K%
Jonny DeLuca - 88 PA, -9.1 K%
Matt Vierling - 95 PA, -8.5 K%
Manny Machado - 122 PA, -8.4 K%
Juan Yepez - 87 PA, -8.3 K%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Jackson Chourio - +9.5% Contact%, +8.9 mph exit velo, -12.5 Chase%
Jurickson Profar - +6.7% Contact%, +5.2 mph exit velo, -10.4 Chase%
Oneil Cruz - +4.1% Contact%, +9.8 mph exit velo, -11.4 Chase%
Shea Langeliers - +9.0% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -5.8 Chase%
Andres Gimenez - +6.2% Contact%, +4.5 mph exit velo, -18.0 Chase%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - +3.7% Contact%, +4.5 mph exit velo, -10.6 Chase%
Matt Vierling - +10.0% Contact%, +4.9 mph exit velo, -8.1 Chase%
Matt Chapman - +14.5% Contact%, +5.3 mph exit velo, -5.0 Chase%
Mike Yastrzemski - +4.0% Contact%, +5.7 mph exit velo, -5.1 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Corbin Carroll - 0.453 xwOBA, 20.5% Brl%, 80.2% Contact%, 21.6% Chase%, 18.0% K%
Juan Soto - 0.387 xwOBA, 16.7% Brl%, 82.7% Contact%, 23.6% Chase%, 18.6% K%
Lars Nootbaar - 0.386 xwOBA, 11.1% Brl%, 86.5% Contact%, 17.2% Chase%, 10.9% K%
Lawrence Butler - 0.463 xwOBA, 20.0% Brl%, 87.6% Contact%, 19.2% Chase%, 5.0% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Tyler Fitzgerald - 35.5% Whiff%, 79.2% Weak%, 0.941 Cold Rating
Orlando Arcia - 35.6% Whiff%, 78.8% Weak%, 0.941 Cold Rating
Leody Taveras - 31.2% Whiff%, 81.5% Weak%, 0.892 Cold Rating
David Peralta - 31.8% Whiff%, 74.3% Weak%, 0.867 Cold Rating
Zack Gelof - 37.2% Whiff%, 68.8% Weak%, 0.865 Cold Rating
Ceddanne Rafaela - 34.8% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.86 Cold Rating
Garrett Mitchell - 28.4% Whiff%, 81.8% Weak%, 0.846 Cold Rating
Jackson Holliday - 39.5% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.837 Cold Rating
Randy Arozarena - 31.0% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.833 Cold Rating
Brayan Rocchio - 27.5% Whiff%, 85.7% Weak%, 0.831 Cold Rating
Minor League Reports
Top Minor League Hitting Performances - Yesterday
Caleb Knight (CHC): 3/4, 2R, 2HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 35FPts
Maximo Acosta (TEX): 2/5, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 26FPts
Jack Suwinski (PIT): 3/5, 2R, 0HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 25FPts
Yunior Severino (MIN): 2/4, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 25FPts
Malcom Nunez (PIT): 4/5, 2R, 0HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 24FPts
Jamie Westbrook (BOS): 2/4, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 23FPts
Kevin Alcantara (CHC): 2/5, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 21FPts
Moises Ballesteros (CHC): 2/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 21FPts
Heriberto Hernandez (TB): 2/3, 2R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0SB, 21FPts
Billy Cook (PIT): 0/2, 4R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1SB, 21FPts
Top Minor League Pitching Performances - Yesterday
Logan Workman (TB): 103 Pitches, 7IP, 4H, 1ER, 10K, 1BB, 34FPts
Richard Fitts (BOS): 77 Pitches, 6IP, 2H, 0ER, 5K, 0BB, 26FPts
Ben Anderson (TEX): 99 Pitches, 6IP, 5H, 0ER, 5K, 0BB, 20FPts
Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 67 Pitches, 4IP, 3H, 2ER, 7K, 0BB, 18FPts
Jake Woodford (PIT): 63 Pitches, 3IP, 4H, 0ER, 5K, 1BB, 17FPts
Cam Schlittler (NYY): 80 Pitches, 4IP, 4H, 3ER, 7K, 3BB, 17FPts
Logan Allen - 671106 (CLE): 82 Pitches, 5IP, 6H, 3ER, 6K, 2BB, 13FPts
Blake Weiman (CHC): 24 Pitches, 1IP, 1H, 0ER, 3K, 0BB, 13FPts
Jonathan Pintaro (NYM): 72 Pitches, 3IP, 5H, 4ER, 8K, 1BB, 12FPts
Jordany Ventura (NYM): 35 Pitches, 2IP, 1H, 0ER, 4K, 0BB, 12FPts
AA-AAA OPS Leaders
Deyvison De Los Santos (AAA - MIA) 505 PA 0.948 OPS
Keston Hiura (AAA - LAA) 364 PA 0.943 OPS
Jason Vosler (AAA - SEA) 477 PA 0.925 OPS
Jimmy Crooks III (AA - STL) 353 PA 0.914 OPS
Dalton Rushing (AAA - LAD) 431 PA 0.913 OPS
Jordan Diaz (AAA - OAK) 428 PA 0.906 OPS
CJ Alexander (AAA - KC) 349 PA 0.906 OPS
Willie MacIver (AAA - COL) 353 PA 0.905 OPS
Pedro Leon (AAA - HOU) 476 PA 0.904 OPS
Cal Stevenson (AAA - PHI) 389 PA 0.9 OPS
Gustavo Campero (AAA - LAA) 402 PA 0.892 OPS
Johnathan Rodriguez (AAA - CLE) 434 PA 0.89 OPS
Tirso Ornelas (AAA - SD) 474 PA 0.89 OPS
Colby Thomas (AAA - OAK) 498 PA 0.888 OPS
Carson Taylor (AA - PHI) 415 PA 0.885 OPS
Ryan Noda (AAA - OAK) 422 PA 0.881 OPS
Matt Koperniak (AAA - STL) 452 PA 0.873 OPS
Luke Ritter (AAA - NYM) 491 PA 0.869 OPS
Roman Anthony (AAA - BOS) 460 PA 0.869 OPS
Cooper Hummel (AAA - HOU) 369 PA 0.868 OPS
AA-AAA Pitching K-BB% Leaders
Brandon Young (AAA - BAL) 95 IP 23.1% K-BB
Shane Smith (AA - MIL) 87 IP 22.6% K-BB
Thomas Harrington (AAA - PIT) 96 IP 22.3% K-BB
Bubba Chandler (AAA - PIT) 103 IP 22.0% K-BB
Ian Seymour (AAA - TB) 129 IP 21.7% K-BB
Yilber Diaz (AAA - ARI) 102 IP 21.6% K-BB
Noah Cameron (AAA - KC) 112 IP 21.4% K-BB
Brady Basso (AAA - OAK) 93 IP 21.2% K-BB
Robinson Pina (AAA - PHI) 115 IP 20.7% K-BB
Troy Melton (AA - DET) 100 IP 20.7% K-BB
Aaron Brown - 676345 (AAA - HOU) 96 IP 20.3% K-BB
Tyler Stuart (AAA - WSH) 118 IP 20.2% K-BB
Mason Barnett (AA - OAK) 120 IP 19.5% K-BB
Chayce McDermott (AAA - BAL) 97 IP 19.3% K-BB
Carson Palmquist (AAA - COL) 107 IP 19.3% K-BB
Alex Pham (AA - BAL) 111 IP 18.7% K-BB
Drew Parrish (AA - ATL) 106 IP 18.7% K-BB
Carson Ragsdale (AAA - SF) 114 IP 18.6% K-BB
Isaac Coffey (AA - BOS) 102 IP 18.4% K-BB
Joander Suarez (AAA - NYM) 123 IP 18.3% K-BB
Schedules & Streamers
Toughest Upcoming Hitter Schedules - Next 7 Days
LAA - 108.4 Opposing SP Stuff+
TB - 107.2 Opposing SP Stuff+
WSH - 107.0 Opposing SP Stuff+
SD - 106.6 Opposing SP Stuff+
OAK - 106.4 Opposing SP Stuff+
Softest Upcoming Hitter Schedules - Next 7 Days
PIT - 86.5 Opposing SP Stuff+
MIA - 91.4 Opposing SP Stuff+
TOR - 91.7 Opposing SP Stuff+
CLE - 91.8 Opposing SP Stuff+
DET - 92.8 Opposing SP Stuff+
Today's SP Streamer Picks
David Festa (12.0% Owned): Projected 5.58IP 2.54ER 6.73SO 1.88BB 17.87FPts
Jeffrey Springs (44.0% Owned): Projected 5.06IP 2.15ER 5.32SO 1.44BB 15.29FPts
Reid Detmers (8.0% Owned): Projected 5.54IP 2.71ER 5.56SO 2.41BB 14.34FPts
OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS
Kyle Stowers - 30 PA, 1.183 OPS
Zach McKinstry - 26 PA, 1.167 OPS
Trevor Larnach - 27 PA, 1.146 OPS
Andrew Benintendi - 35 PA, 1.072 OPS
Will Wagner - 27 PA, 1.063 OPS
Mike Yastrzemski - 30 PA, 1.021 OPS
Jesus Sanchez - 28 PA, 1.018 OPS
Jacob Young - 28 PA, 0.97 OPS
Matt Vierling - 35 PA, 0.962 OPS
Rowdy Tellez - 30 PA, 0.953 OPS
Today's Hitter Streamer Picks
Brewer Hicklen LF (0.0% Owned): Projected 0.66R 0.17HR 0.72RBI 1.02SO 0.44BB 0.26SB 9.22FPts
Luis Garcia SS (2.0% Owned): Projected 0.65R 0.17HR 0.7RBI 0.53SO 0.22BB 0.12SB 9.2FPts
Brandon Lowe 2B (44.0% Owned): Projected 0.67R 0.22HR 0.57RBI 1.26SO 0.46BB 0.06SB 8.5FPts
Spencer Horwitz 1B (12.0% Owned): Projected 0.61R 0.17HR 0.64RBI 0.69SO 0.41BB 0.04SB 8.45FPts
Blake Perkins OF (2.0% Owned): Projected 0.69R 0.09HR 0.59RBI 0.99SO 0.52BB 0.17SB 8.36FPts
Ryan O'Hearn 1B (31.0% Owned): Projected 0.66R 0.16HR 0.62RBI 0.6SO 0.42BB 0.04SB 8.23FPts
J.P. Crawford SS (21.0% Owned): Projected 0.67R 0.11HR 0.5RBI 0.82SO 0.66BB 0.05SB 8.07FPts
Rob Refsnyder RF (1.0% Owned): Projected 0.67R 0.11HR 0.53RBI 0.92SO 0.58BB 0.06SB 7.98FPts
Dylan Crews OF (44.0% Owned): Projected 0.68R 0.13HR 0.48RBI 0.93SO 0.25BB 0.16SB 7.97FPts
Andrew McCutchen LF (6.0% Owned): Projected 0.59R 0.16HR 0.64RBI 1.0SO 0.51BB 0.05SB 7.88FPts
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