MLB Daily Notes - September 4th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
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Happy Labor Day! Even though I don’t know why anyone would say that, the only thing you’d really be celebrating today is not having to work - although surely there’s more to the holiday than that and maybe some people take it more seriously than me!
Me not having to work means I have to actually work today, since life behind a computer is a joke and life caring for three kids is very much not. Trea baby is 9 months old now and is just all over the place with crawling, guy is quick. He gravitates towards the toy baseballs and basketballs I have lying around, so that’s a very good sign early on. I’ve got three chances (two boy chances) at growing an athlete to take us all somewhere, so let’s hope for the best. My wife is super athletic, she was a division 2 level tennis player and probably could’ve been the same in softball and basketball if she had kept playing, and I never did so bad myself with sports - so I think we’ve got at least some D2 scholarship opportunities ahead of us. Although these kids are all going to go to small private Christian schools (we are indoctrinating them like crazy, baby!) where the athletics will be much less, so that’s a roadblock. But I guess I don’t even really want my kids to be like Division 1 athletes, that seems like a road that can take you to some places you don’t want to go.
This has been the least interesting intro ever, probably.
I am increasingly excited for the NFL season to kick off, that Thursday Night game is going to be a ton of fun. Once the calendar turns to September us fantasy baseball people start getting much less attention online, which is really tough to deal with, you know? Like all of the sudden, nobody cares who had the highest xwOBA to wOBA differential yesterday? All you want to do is like lame brainless fantasy football tweets? Sad!
But no, I get it - fantasy football is a much more appealing game to the masses and the seasons are always more fun at the beginning. Five+ months of baseball gets old, so it’s fantasy football time and I get it.
The truth that I believe, but probably shouldn’t say, is that I think I could be a much better fantasy football analyst/writer than almost everybody else just given my skillset here, but it would feel like selling out to me. This is a zero-sum game we play here, so if I started going in on fantasy football stuff in August that would take away from baseball, at least a little bit, and that’s not cool, man.
So the gameplan is to keep it light on football until the MLB regular season ends, and then we’ll see where it goes from there - but around NFL week 4 or so, you might start getting some hot football fire from me on here.
The other thing that happens this time of year is that I start talking a lot about my home league without a single care about if anybody cares or not. Our league was set up back in 2007 when my buddies and I were around 16, and we haven’t changes some of the original rules - which leaves us with a ten-team H2H 6x6 league where four teams make the playoffs, which are just two weeks. So we play for 22 weeks just to have the season decided by one week of semi-finals and one week of finals. It’s not the most sensible way to do it, but it’s tradition and it’s a whole lot of fun.
I have a one-game lead on first place heading into the final regular season week. The regular season champ gets some cash, and the advantage of playing the #4 seed rather than the #3, which is big this year because basically there are only three good teams in the league right now. There are also four teams in the running for 4th place, although two of them are pretty big longshots, but anyways there’s a lot to be decided this week - so it will be a lot of fun. And then next week you’re just going to have to hear everything about my semi-final matchup here because that’s what I want - and I get what I want here!
Pitchers - Yesterday
Another good rookie start yesterday, this time from Bobby Miller.
96 pitches, 16.7% SwStr%, 50% Strike%, 5:1 K:BB
He went 7 innings giving up just one run on three hits, and it was against the Braves!
Great stuff on the three main pitches there with huge SwStr% numbers on all of them. Probably some good fortune here, but good to see him succeeding and throwing this many pitches late in the year.
The Dodgers are likely viewing him as a part of their playoff rotation. And he’s still in decent shape on the innings tracker:
He’ll surpass his 2021 total in his next outing, but that leaves a good 30-40 innings I would say before the Dodgers would want to shut him down (although I’m really not sure how teams handle this stuff).
Tarik Skubal was the SwStr% winner with a 20.6% mark against the White Sox. Luis Robert was scratched which made that White Sox lineup just a joke, so it was good that Skubal could exploit it. He gave up two runs through seven innings with a 7:2 K:BB. For the year now:
15.3% SwStr%, 52.2% Strike%, 28.8% K%, 5.2% BB%
Fantastic stuff overall, it’s feeling like Skubal will be one of my favorite SPs to draft next season.
Chris Sale threw a ton of sliders yesterday and did not have the same velocity:
Sale has had so much trouble consistently taking the mound that it’s hard to really say much about his trends one way or the other, but it’s never great to lose two miles per hour on your fastball from one start to the next.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tarik Skubal (vs. CWS): 25.55 Points
2. Bobby Miller (vs. ATL): 25.35 Points
3. Seth Lugo (vs. SF): 23.1 Points
4. Chris Sale (vs. KC): 22.85 Points
5. Zack Thompson (vs. PIT): 21.55 Points
6. Cristian Javier (vs. NYY): 21.1 Points
7. Taj Bradley (vs. CLE): 18.45 Points
8. Michael King (vs. HOU): 18.25 Points
9. Tylor Megill (vs. SEA): 17.79 Points
10. Xzavion Curry (vs. TB): 17.79 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tarik Skubal (DET): 20 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
2. Chris Sale (BOS): 16 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
3. Tylor Megill (NYM): 16 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
4. Bobby Miller (LAD): 16 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
5. Cristian Javier (HOU): 14 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
6. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 13 Whiffs (81 Pitches)
7. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 13 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
8. Xzavion Curry (CLE): 12 Whiffs (78 Pitches)
9. Jon Gray (TEX): 12 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
10. Zac Gallen (ARI): 11 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
George Kirby extended his Ball% lead
And Cristian Javier had a rare good start!
6 IP, 3 ER, 8 K, 0 BB, 14.8% SwStr%
And after that three start stretch of Charlie Morton being a downright ace, he sucked again! You can forgive him maybe because he was facing the Dodgers, but he just didn’t have the command
90 pitches, 6.7% SwStr%, 43.3% Strike%, 42.2% Ball%
His last 5 Ball rates (league average is 36%):
50.5%, 35.1%, 38.5%, 35.1%, 42.2%
I would say that you just can’t fully trust an old guy that relies that much on a curveball. If the “feel” (if that exists) isn’t there, he’s not going to pitch well - he has very little to fall back on.
Kevin Gausman lasted just 67 pitches, but I believe that as just due to a rain delay - so never mind, I should just delete this sentence!
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. George Kirby (SEA): 57.5 Strike%, 24.7 Ball%
2. Carson Spiers (CIN): 56.3 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
3. Cristian Javier (HOU): 56.2 Strike%, 29.2 Ball%
4. Jameson Taillon (CHC): 53.8 Strike%, 28.6 Ball%
5. Alex Cobb (SF): 53.4 Strike%, 25.9 Ball%
6. Chris Sale (BOS): 52.0 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%
7. Xzavion Curry (CLE): 51.3 Strike%, 29.5 Ball%
8. Bobby Miller (LAD): 50.0 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
9. Jon Gray (TEX): 50.0 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
10. Taj Bradley (TB): 50.0 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%
11. Cole Sands (MIN): 48.0 Strike%, 44.0 Ball%
12. Zack Thompson (STL): 47.8 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%
13. Tarik Skubal (DET): 47.4 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
14. Tanner Banks (CWS): 47.1 Strike%, 39.2 Ball%
15. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 46.9 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Jack Flaherty's CU velo (13 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 77.9
Jon Gray's SL velo (29 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 89.6
Kyle Muller's FF velo (48 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 94.7
Tylor Megill's SL velo (23 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 85.7
Michael King's ST velo (13 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 83.3
Sandy Alcantara's FF velo (11 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 99.4
Tarik Skubal's CH velo (29 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 83.1
Tarik Skubal's SL velo (27 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 86.4
Zack Greinke's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 70.8
Chris Sale's FF velo (35 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 92.2
Bobby Miller's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 88.1
Chris Sale's CH velo (21 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 84.2
Chris Sale's SL velo (44 pitches) DOWN -3.1mph to 75.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alex Cobb's FS usage (53.4%) up 13.2 points
Bobby Miller's CH usage (25.0%) up 10.9 points
Cole Sands's FF usage (52.0%) up 16.2 points
Jack Flaherty's FC usage (23.5%) up 13.3 points
Josiah Gray's FC usage (33.7%) up 15.9 points
Josiah Gray's CU usage (29.1%) up 11.9 points
Kenta Maeda's FS usage (41.2%) up 10.8 points
Kyle Muller's FF usage (61.5%) up 11.6 points
Michael King's SI usage (52.2%) up 21.0 points
Sandy Alcantara's CU usage (19.1%) up 18.9 points
Taj Bradley's CH usage (29.1%) up 17.6 points
Tanner Banks's SI usage (11.8%) up 11.0 points
Zac Gallen's CH usage (26.3%) up 12.7 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Alex Cobb Split-Finger: +21.6%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +21.3%
Alec Marsh Slider: -18.9%
Kyle Muller Slider: -17.0%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -16.7%
Johnny Cueto Cutter: -16.1%
J.P. France Curveball: +16.0%
Framber Valdez Changeup: +15.6%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -15.6%
Adam Wainwright 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%
Bryce Miller Sinker: +15.2%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +15.1%
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: +14.5%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -14.3%
Zack Littell Sinker: +14.1%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -14.0%
Tanner Houck Sinker: +13.9%
Zack Littell 4-Seam Fastball: -13.9%
Chris Sale Slider: +13.4%
Jake Irvin Sinker: +13.3%
Tarik Skubal 4-Seam Fastball: -13.2%
Touki Toussaint Sinker: +12.9%
Gavin Williams 4-Seam Fastball: -12.9%
Hunter Brown Slider: -12.8%
Jon Gray Slider: +12.6%
Cal Quantrill Changeup: +12.6%
Lucas Giolito Changeup: +12.5%
Zach Davies Sinker: -12.4%
Adam Wainwright Sinker: -12.3%
Bryan Woo Cutter: +12.2%
Alex Cobb Sinker: -12.1%
Gavin Williams Slider: +12.1%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 99 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 91 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 72 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 70 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Griffin Canning - 79 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Kyle Bradish - 71 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Bobby Miller - 96 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Blake Snell - 100 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 77 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Lucas Giolito - 79 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cole Ragans - 71 TBF, 40.8% K%
Spencer Strider - 72 TBF, 38.9% K%
Max Scherzer - 87 TBF, 35.6% K%
Charlie Morton - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Kodai Senga - 77 TBF, 35.1% K%
Griffin Canning - 79 TBF, 32.9% K%
Mitch Keller - 80 TBF, 32.5% K%
Gerrit Cole - 70 TBF, 31.4% K%
Kyle Bradish - 71 TBF, 31.0% K%
Tarik Skubal - 99 TBF, 30.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cole Ragans - 71 TBF, 36.6% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 72 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Griffin Canning - 79 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 91 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 70 TBF, 27.1% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 87 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Mitch Keller - 80 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Kodai Senga - 77 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 101 TBF, 24.8% K-BB%
Zach Eflin - 70 TBF, 24.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kyle Bradish - 71 TBF, 61.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 71 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Alex Cobb - 93 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 69 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 100 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Framber Valdez - 106 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Bobby Miller - 96 TBF, 54.8% GB%
James Paxton - 82 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Max Fried - 101 TBF, 53.6% GB%
Javier Assad - 99 TBF, 53.5% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Civale - 64 TBF, 29.7 K%, 1.6 BB%, 48.8% GB%
Cole Ragans - 71 TBF, 40.8 K%, 4.2 BB%, 43.6% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 64 TBF, 46.9 K%, 7.8 BB%, 55.2% GB%
Justin Steele - 74 TBF, 28.4 K%, 4.1 BB%, 53.1% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 71 TBF, 31.0 K%, 7.0 BB%, 61.9% GB%
Mitch Keller - 80 TBF, 32.5 K%, 6.2 BB%, 43.8% GB%
Robert Garcia - 53 TBF, 30.2 K%, 5.7 BB%, 54.5% GB%
Scott Barlow - 47 TBF, 27.7 K%, 6.4 BB%, 44.8% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 99 TBF, 30.3 K%, 6.1 BB%, 51.6% GB%
Zach Eflin - 70 TBF, 27.1 K%, 2.9 BB%, 44.9% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 101 TBF, 29.7 K%, 5.0 BB%, 51.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Graham Ashcraft - +3.0% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Jameson Taillon - +4.4% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Mitch Keller - +4.8% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Logan Gilbert - +3.5% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Chris Bassitt - +2.2% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Cole Ragans - +4.0% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Aaron Civale - +6.6% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Griffin Canning - +4.8% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Adrian Houser - +8.0% CSW%, -5.9 BB%
Taijuan Walker - +2.5% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Jhony Brito - +2.7% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Ryan Yarbrough - +6.1% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Scott Barlow - +3.3% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Hitters
Multiple Barrels
Mike Ford (SEA) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Pete Alonso (NYM) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
William Contreras (MIL) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Hardest Hit Balls
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 115.6mph - home_run
Matt Wallner (MIN) - 114.6mph - single
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 113.3mph - foul
Eloy Jimenez (CWS) - 113.1mph - field_out
Corey Seager (TEX) - 112.8mph - foul
Royce Lewis (MIN) - 112.6mph - single
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 112.5mph - single
Eloy Jimenez (CWS) - 112.0mph - foul
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 111.7mph - grounded_into_double_play
Teoscar Hernandez (SEA) - 111.4mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Harrison Bader - 55 PA, 0.141 wOBA, 0.266 xwOBA, 0.125 Diff
Jose Ramirez - 74 PA, 0.258 wOBA, 0.349 xwOBA, 0.091 Diff
Juan Soto - 85 PA, 0.343 wOBA, 0.422 xwOBA, 0.079 Diff
Alec Bohm - 75 PA, 0.345 wOBA, 0.419 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Andruw Monasterio - 62 PA, 0.202 wOBA, 0.275 xwOBA, 0.073 Diff
Trevor Story - 69 PA, 0.161 wOBA, 0.23 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
Adley Rutschman - 79 PA, 0.34 wOBA, 0.405 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff
Salvador Perez - 70 PA, 0.285 wOBA, 0.348 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
Patrick Bailey - 60 PA, 0.261 wOBA, 0.32 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
Ryan McMahon - 80 PA, 0.334 wOBA, 0.391 xwOBA, 0.057 Diff
Bottom 10
Julio Rodriguez - 74 PA, 0.566 wOBA, 0.423 xwOBA, -0.143 Diff
Nolan Jones - 76 PA, 0.43 wOBA, 0.294 xwOBA, -0.136 Diff
Jeff McNeil - 82 PA, 0.363 wOBA, 0.248 xwOBA, -0.115 Diff
Adam Duvall - 74 PA, 0.481 wOBA, 0.366 xwOBA, -0.115 Diff
Trea Turner - 77 PA, 0.479 wOBA, 0.366 xwOBA, -0.113 Diff
Mookie Betts - 78 PA, 0.553 wOBA, 0.444 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff
Anthony Santander - 62 PA, 0.418 wOBA, 0.311 xwOBA, -0.107 Diff
Gabriel Moreno - 60 PA, 0.428 wOBA, 0.323 xwOBA, -0.105 Diff
Bryce Harper - 75 PA, 0.514 wOBA, 0.412 xwOBA, -0.102 Diff
Alex Bregman - 90 PA, 0.447 wOBA, 0.346 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
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