MLB Daily Notes - September 4th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Pitcher Review
The Chris Sale thing went just as expected against the Rockies. He was like 93% owned on DraftKings, it was just the ultimate spot.
7 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 9 K, 0 BB, 24.7% SwStr%
I wonder if he knew. Did he wake up yesterday like “damn I’m about to murder these dudes the Road Rockies absolutely are sooooo bad I’ll probably go 9:0 K:BB!!!!”. I wish we could get that kind of honesty in player interviews. Modesty is good, but false modesty is bad.
Actually, false modesty is probably better than true boastfulness. But this isn’t that serious.
David Peterson actually showed Sale up a bit with 20 whiffs of his own!
6 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 11 K, 1 BB, 22.5% SwStr%, 58.4% Strike%
That was a pretty shocking result. It was his best start of the year, and his best start by a wide margin since May.
In his last 12 starts:
71.1 IP, 2.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 20.7% K%, 9.2% BB%, 0.63 HR/9
You would have to call that a very lucky ERA, given the very poor 11.6% K-BB%. He has gotten a bunch of ground balls (53% GB%), so that’s helped, but overall the numbers aren’t that impressive (45.4% Strike%, 12.7% SwStr%). But he was on one last night! And it was another big strikeout number from a left-handed pitcher against the Red Sox. That has been a sneaky good matchup this year.
Worst Team K% vs. LHP
BOS 28.4%
COL 27.1%
SEA 26.7%
PIT 26.6%
TBR 25.2%
You can even strike out Rafael Devers if you’re a lefty. He has a 32.3% K% and a 66% Contact% against the southpaw this year with a poor .397 SLG. How about that!
Eleven more punchies for Carlos Rodon.
6 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 11 K, 2 BB, 19.2% SwStr%, 57.6% Strike%
You may remember that patch between June 15th and July 9th where he gave up 27 earned runs in 23 innings. We still liked his K-BB% over that time, so it was pretty clear that he’d improve.
Since that July 9th start:
9 GS, 3.28 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 33.0% K%, 9.4% B%, 23.6% K-BB%
He’s looking good as the Yankees head toward the playoffs. Most notably, he’s put together a full season of health. The Yankees rotation is shaping up to be competitive for the postseason for sure, especially if they can get Clarke Schmidt back into that form he showed early on this year (he’s currently rehabbing; he threw 4.2 innings on Monday).
The most interesting man of the day was Reid Detmers. He struck out ten Dodgers!
6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 10 K, 2 BB, 18% SwStr%, 57% Strike%, 32% Ball%
He was demoted after his June 1st start and spent three full months in AAA. The demotion didn’t make much sense to me; he had a pretty strong 15.5% K-BB% and a 49.3% Strike% at the time of that demotion. I was even calling him a buy-low option at the time, and the Angels were like nah, screw this guy.
Here is the pitch mix from yesterday:
He’s four-seamer and slider, and they both worked well yesterday. They’ve both worked pretty well all season to be honest (52% Strike% on the fastball, 48% on the slider).
I am saying all of this as if the guy doesn’t have a 5.87 ERA in the Majors. He’s gotten himself in trouble with the walk (9.7%), the long ball (1.30 HR/9), and some bad luck (.330 BABIP). His new 2024 SIERA in the Majors is 3.91.
It can be a little hard to believe that someone who was demoted to AAA and stayed there for three months might actually be a top-100 pitcher or so in the game, but I think that’s what we’re looking at here. Teams do weird things, and keeping Detmers in AAA for three months was one of the weirder things we’ve seen. While he was gone, their pitching staff put up a 4.47 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP on a 10.2% K-BB%. Some guys who made starts for them in this time frame:
Carson Fulmer - 8 starts, 4.76 ERA
Jack Kochanowicz - 6 starts, 4.96 ERA
Davis Daniel - 6 starts, 6.23 ERA
Zach Plesac - 3 starts, 8.25 ERA
Johnny Cueto - 2 starts, 7.15 ERA
This was malpractice. And there’s no way incompetence is the explanation for it. Maybe there’s something else going on behind the scenes, but this was just so clearly not a baseball-only move. Sandbagging, tanking, grievance-hunting, I don’t know! But Reid Detmers deserved better. Maybe we can make it up to him by adding him in fantasy leagues.
If they go with this six-man rotation, Detmers schedule will be:
9/6 vs. MIN
9/16 vs. CWS
9/22 vs. HOU
9/29 vs. TEX
Not a bad schedule. I have just added him in the MLB DW league, where I'm currently playing in the quarterfinal.
David Festa had another good start. He threw 90 pitches and did this:
5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 7 K, 1 BB, 17.8% SwStr%, 48.9% Strike%, 36.7% Ball%
His last outings have been very encouraging. He’s thrown 88 and 90 pitches (that’s pretty much a full pitch count these days), and has posted a 14:2 K:BB. The pitch mix marks for the season:
Solid marks across the board. The one bad number is the 35% GB%. The home run has been an issue for him this year (1.52 HR/9), but the K% is now up to 29%, so he’s putting a ton of guys away without allowing a ball in play - and the walks are under control as well (6.5% BB%). I like what Festa is doing, I’d add him if you’re in need of SP help.
The two-start week for Patrick Corbin began. I have not talked about this guy in the notes this year, because he’s clearly not someone to touch in fantasy. But people touched him this week; they touched him. He helped teams out in strikeouts last night and got a win:
5.2 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 8 K, 3 BB, 16.1% SwStr%, 46.2% Strike%
So that made me look somewhat bad since I’ve made a point on Twitter to sling as much anti-Corbin hate as possible. But when I’m wrong, it’s because I was unlucky. Three of those eight punchies were called strikeouts, and they were all very questionable calls.
So look, I was completely and totally right. In fact, let’s go ahead and say that I was so right that I can’t even be wrong about anything for at least like four months.
Worst ERAs Since 2021
50 start minimum
Keuchel 6.19
Corbin 5.72
Feltner 5.72
Davies 5.43
Carrasco 5.40
Lyles 5.20
B Keller 5.20
Lynch 5.19
Gomber 5.08
Bumgarner 5.06
While I’m looking at a pitcher leaderboard back to 2021, I should point out that Nick Nastrini has been historically awful at throwing strikes.
Highest BB% Since 2021
5 starts minimum
Nick Nastrini 20%
Joe Boyle 15.5%
John Gant 14.5%
Touki Toussaint 14.1%
Hayden Birdsong 14%
Corbin Martin 13.9%
Colin Selby 13.8%
Chris Ellis 13.7%
Jackson Kowar 13.7%
Reiss Knehr 15.4%
If you know me, you know I love a good scatter-plot-stretcher:
I wrote somewhat glowingly about Nastrini in the preseason:
So that’s a big fat L on that one, although at least this time I didn’t hurt anybody. Nobody actually invested anything of use in Nastrini.
It’s too bad I wasn’t free from any possible mistake or error back then like I am now. I’m like the pope right now. Infallible, except when I’m fallible.
Cade Povich WATCH OUT:
7.1 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 10 K, 0 BB
But WAIT - it was against the White Sox, who are now 31-109. This is quite possibly the worst Major League Baseball team to ever exist. Although we have to contextualize that. The 2024 White Sox would probably win the 1950 World Series with ease. The recent comparable team would be the 2003 Tigers, who went 43-119. That’s a .265 winning percentage. The White Sox are currently at .221. So they’ll outdo the Tigers. The 1899 Cleveland Spider went 20-134, for a .130 winning percentage, but that was just 34 years after the freaking Civil War ended, so things were at least a little bit different. Baseball is crazy, man.
Is Povich decent though? For the year:
9.5% SwStr%, 17.3% K%, 9.2% BB%, 45.5% Strike%, 36% Ball%, 2.47 WHIP+
Those numbers are all really awful.
His last four have been a little better:
10.9% SwStr%, 22.7% K%, 3.1% BB%, 47.5% Strike%, 32.7% Ball%
But they all got a major boost after that White Sox exploitation last night. We don’t want anything to do with him in fantasy, and we can re-iterate the larger point - don’t ever invest in a pitcher with bad fastball velocity.
I had never heard the name CADE before the last couple of years. That’s another one of those new boy names that got hyped up around 2000, and now we’re seeing the name pop up 20-25 years later.
We have a bunch of Cade’s in prob all right now:
The most interesting one is Cade Horton. He’s the Cubs’ top pitching prospect, and a guy I watched pitch last year in South Bend. He could have made the Major League rotation this year, but he’s missed a lot of time to injury - so we probably won’t see him until next year. But I’ll share my personal scouting report from when I saw him in A+ last year:
Throws the ball with his right hand
Throws some pitches fast
Throws other pitches not as fast
It looks like some of them might move in a different fashion than others as well but I can’t say for sure I’m standing in deep right field right now
The catcher almost always catches the ball when he throws it
Unless the hitters hits it, which happens somewhat frequently as well
Nine more strikeouts for Ryne Nelson. He’s really weirding me out.
6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 9 K, 2 BB, 9.8% SwStr%, 50% Strike%
Since August, he has a very high 27.3% K%, but a very low 10.0% SwStr%. That does not make sense! The SwStr% vs. K% plot since August 1st:
He is the biggest outlier there, and we should expect the K% to come back down. But if you’ve been using him, you’ve been profiting.
Hitter Review
Kyle Schwarber hit his 29th, 30th, and 31st homer of the year last night. He scored 58 fantasy points, and that was the third-most in a single game dating back to at least 2021.
Schwarbdaddy has had a somewhat quiet season, by his standards at least:
591 PA, .245/.369/.474, 31 HR, 92 R, 88 RBI, 5 SB
The batting average has come up (he hit .197 last year), but the power production has come down a bit (15.3 PA/HR last year, 18.8 this year). He’s still an extremely good fantasy bat, and appears on his way to another 35-100-100 season. Underrated!
Josh Jung also homered. We haven’t seen much of Jung this year due to injury, but he’s put up some decent numbers when he’s been healthy:
135 PA, .285/.304/.469, 6 HR, 25.9% K%, 2.2% BB%, 11.5% Brl%, .258 xBA
I could see him finishing the year with a bang and hitting a bunch of homers. The raw power is very nice for him, and he’s been managing the strikeout rate nicely.
Jackson Chourio swatted another homer, his tenth of the second half. Since the break, he’s slashing a huge .341/.393/.616 with a 15% K% and ten steals. That is something like a 35-35 pace. He’ll be a second or third round pick next year, I’d imagine - and I think that’s something we can get behind.
If we judge him by June 1st and on:
.322/.374/.560, 8.4% Brl%, 16.5% K%, 6.7% BB%, .305 xBA, .380 xwOBA, 45% GB%
Excellent numbers. He profiles as a true five-category guy, and the sky is the limit (he is 20 years old).
Seth Brown is having himself a big second half.
120 PA, .312/.375/.514, 6 HR, 20% K%, 12 R, 21 RBI, 10.6% Brl%, 74% Cont%
Pretty decent stuff. I remember being real into Seth Brown in 2019 after hearing Scott White pump him up. He hit 37 homers in the minors that year in just 112 games. But the success hasn’t translated much to the Majors, although hey - staying in the Majors Leagues for the better part of five years is a pretty nice career. Let’s just hope he’s investing properly!
Wyatt Langford hit a walk-off grand slam. His season now:
.243/.309/.383, .692 OPS, 10 HR, 8.5% Brl%, 21% K%, 8% BB%, .240 xBA, .323 xwOBA
Nothin’ special! But this is what happens when you try to go from college to the Major Freakin’ Leagues in a four-day span. I would imagine that the fantasy teams that dove in on Wyatt Langford on draft day aren’t doing all that well. He hasn’t been making the in-season improvements like Chourio, either. Since July 1st:
.223/.300/.375, 6 HR, 9.4% Brl%, 22.7% K%, 9.7% BB%, .243 xBA, .335 xwOBA
That will do it for today! My week one NFL DFS breakdown will come out this afternoon. It’s really long, and probably not nearly as good as when other people write it - how’s that for a sales pitch?
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. David Peterson
2. Kutter Crawford
3. Chris Sale
4. Carlos Rodon
5. Steven Matz
6. David Festa
7. Reid Detmers
8. Luis Castillo
9. Aaron Civale
10. Paul Skenes
11. Andrew Heaney
12. Patrick Corbin
13. Tanner Bibee
14. Cade Povich
15. Chris Bassitt
16. Kyle Freeland
17. Jeffrey Springs
18. J.T. Ginn
19. Max Meyer
20. Ryne Nelson
21. Kyle Hendricks
22. Walker Buehler
23. Brady Singer
24. Kyle Harrison
25. Nick Nastrini
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cade Povich (vs. CWS): 37.49 Points
2. Chris Sale (vs. COL): 34.15 Points
3. David Peterson (vs. BOS): 33.3 Points
4. Carlos Rodon (vs. TEX): 31.7 Points
5. Ryne Nelson (vs. SF): 29.41 Points
6. Reid Detmers (vs. LAD): 26.5 Points
7. Andrew Heaney (vs. NYY): 24.85 Points
8. Tanner Bibee (vs. KC): 24.5 Points
9. Kutter Crawford (vs. NYM): 23.7 Points
10. Patrick Corbin (vs. MIA): 22.76 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Chris Sale (ATL): 23 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
2. David Peterson (NYM): 20 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
3. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 19 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
4. Reid Detmers (LAA): 18 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
5. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 18 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
6. Paul Skenes (PIT): 16 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
7. David Festa (MIN): 16 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
8. Luis Castillo (SEA): 15 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
9. Patrick Corbin (WSH): 15 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
10. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 14 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. David Peterson (NYM): 58.4 Strike%, 27.0 Ball%
2. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 58.1 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
3. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 57.6 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
4. Reid Detmers (LAA): 57.0 Strike%, 32.0 Ball%
5. Aaron Civale (MIL): 55.1 Strike%, 29.2 Ball%
6. Cade Povich (BAL): 54.1 Strike%, 28.6 Ball%
7. Tristan Beck (SF): 54.1 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%
8. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 53.3 Strike%, 27.2 Ball%
9. Luis Castillo (SEA): 51.5 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%
10. Steven Matz (STL): 51.3 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%
11. Andrew Heaney (TEX): 51.2 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%
12. Kyle Freeland (COL): 50.6 Strike%, 30.4 Ball%
13. Ryne Nelson (ARI): 50.0 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%
14. Paul Skenes (PIT): 49.0 Strike%, 38.0 Ball%
15. David Festa (MIN): 48.9 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Chris Sale: 93 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.43 POUT
2. Jeffrey Springs: 82 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.56 POUT
3. Cade Povich: 98 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.67 POUT
4. Luis Castillo: 99 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.71 POUT
5. J.T. Ginn: 88 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.89 POUT
6. David Peterson: 89 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.94 POUT
7. Tanner Bibee: 91 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.06 POUT
8. Ryne Nelson: 102 Pitches, 20 Outs, 5.1 POUT
9. Kutter Crawford: 93 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.17 POUT
10. Patrick Corbin: 93 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.47 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Patrick Corbin's FC velo (17 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 87.6
Tanner Bibee's SL velo (37 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 87.0
Kyle Harrison's CH velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 83.5
Chris Sale's FF velo (35 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 93.0
Kyle Harrison's FF velo (35 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 91.2
Kyle Harrison's SV velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 79.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Brady Singer's FF usage (23.2%) up 17.0 points
Brady Singer's ST usage (14.1%) up 12.2 points
Kutter Crawford's FC usage (43.0%) up 12.5 points
Kyle Freeland's CH usage (27.8%) up 16.4 points
Paul Skenes's CH usage (19.0%) up 14.7 points
Tanner Bibee's SL usage (40.7%) up 14.0 points
Tristan Beck's FF usage (52.5%) up 15.0 points
Tristan Beck's CU usage (19.7%) up 11.2 points
Walker Buehler's CU usage (30.1%) up 10.8 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Justin Wrobleski Curveball: +20.7%
Yusei Kikuchi Slider: +19.9%
Jack Kochanowicz Sinker: +18.1%
Ty Blach Sinker: -18.1%
Edward Cabrera 4-Seam Fastball: +16.9%
JP Sears 4-Seam Fastball: +16.7%
Bowden Francis Split-Finger: +16.3%
Bailey Falter Slider: +16.3%
Cooper Criswell Sweeper: -16.1%
Jameson Taillon Sinker: +16.1%
Kutter Crawford Cutter: +15.9%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -15.7%
JP Sears Sweeper: -15.4%
Bowden Francis Curveball: -15.3%
Edward Cabrera Changeup: -15.3%
Jack Kochanowicz Curveball: -14.0%
Cooper Criswell Sinker: +13.8%
Martin Perez Curveball: +13.6%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -13.6%
Taijuan Walker Split-Finger: +13.3%
Luis Castillo 4-Seam Fastball: +13.3%
Ronel Blanco Curveball: +13.2%
Kyle Harrison Slurve: +12.8%
Ronel Blanco Changeup: -12.8%
Justin Wrobleski Slider: -12.7%
Ryan Pepiot Slider: -12.3%
Osvaldo Bido 4-Seam Fastball: -12.2%
Walker Buehler Curveball: +12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Joe Musgrove - 87 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Sean Manaea - 101 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Chris Sale - 104 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Jose Berrios - 103 TBF, 31.7% CSW%
Bryan Woo - 98 TBF, 31.6% CSW%
Cole Ragans - 90 TBF, 31.5% CSW%
David Peterson - 133 TBF, 31.4% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 96 TBF, 31.4% CSW%
Jack Flaherty - 93 TBF, 31.3% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 106 TBF, 31.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cole Ragans - 90 TBF, 34.4% K%
Logan Gilbert - 96 TBF, 33.3% K%
Carlos Rodon - 88 TBF, 33.0% K%
Paul Skenes - 88 TBF, 30.7% K%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 90 TBF, 30.0% K%
Joe Musgrove - 87 TBF, 29.9% K%
Sean Manaea - 101 TBF, 28.7% K%
DJ Herz - 87 TBF, 28.7% K%
Gerrit Cole - 92 TBF, 28.3% K%
Chris Sale - 104 TBF, 27.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Gilbert - 96 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 88 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 97 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Sean Manaea - 101 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Cole Ragans - 90 TBF, 24.4% K-BB%
Joe Musgrove - 87 TBF, 24.1% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 104 TBF, 24.0% K-BB%
Michael Wacha - 95 TBF, 23.2% K-BB%
Ryne Nelson - 99 TBF, 23.2% K-BB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 90 TBF, 22.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cristopher Sanchez - 82 TBF, 65.0% GB%
Logan Webb - 103 TBF, 62.8% GB%
Andre Pallante - 104 TBF, 59.7% GB%
Brayan Bello - 98 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Patrick Corbin - 91 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Max Meyer - 96 TBF, 56.5% GB%
Tanner Houck - 106 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Miles Mikolas - 88 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Seth Lugo - 83 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Davis Martin - 87 TBF, 53.3% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 71 TBF, 33.8 K%, 7.0 BB%, 63.4% GB%
Gavin Stone - 71 TBF, 29.6 K%, 7.0 BB%, 53.3% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 87 TBF, 29.9 K%, 5.7 BB%, 43.6% GB%
Justin Steele - 55 TBF, 34.5 K%, 5.5 BB%, 60.6% GB%
Reynaldo Lopez - 67 TBF, 34.3 K%, 7.5 BB%, 48.7% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 72 TBF, 29.2 K%, 5.6 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 73 TBF, 31.5 K%, 5.5 BB%, 50.0% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Garrett Crochet: 7.25 ERA, 1.59 SIERA
Taj Bradley: 10.42 ERA, 5.12 SIERA
Roddery Munoz: 10.8 ERA, 5.51 SIERA
Mitch Keller: 7.46 ERA, 3.88 SIERA
Hayden Birdsong: 8.68 ERA, 5.21 SIERA
Brandon Pfaadt: 5.9 ERA, 3.13 SIERA
Kyle Harrison: 6.65 ERA, 4.09 SIERA
George Kirby: 6.84 ERA, 4.38 SIERA
Max Meyer: 7.55 ERA, 5.22 SIERA
Miles Mikolas: 6.04 ERA, 3.82 SIERA
Luckiest
David Peterson: 1.63 ERA, 4.75 SIERA
Albert Suarez: 1.19 ERA, 4.03 SIERA
Hunter Brown: 1.45 ERA, 3.81 SIERA
Kevin Gausman: 2.2 ERA, 4.51 SIERA
Pablo Lopez: 1.71 ERA, 3.98 SIERA
Joe Musgrove: 1.3 ERA, 3.51 SIERA
Aaron Civale: 2.54 ERA, 4.73 SIERA
Jose Berrios: 1.56 ERA, 3.44 SIERA
Osvaldo Bido: 2.22 ERA, 4.07 SIERA
Gerrit Cole: 1.59 ERA, 3.44 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
David Peterson - +2.4% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Sean Manaea - +4.9% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Ryne Nelson - +2.0% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Michael Wacha - +3.4% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Osvaldo Bido - +2.9% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Ben Lively - +2.6% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Bowden Francis - +2.9% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - +4.8% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Mitch Keller - +3.1% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Andrew Heaney - +4.0% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Jared Shuster - +2.4% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Garrett Crochet - +4.1% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Anthony Santander (BAL) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Josh Jung (TEX) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 6 PA, 15 Swings, 3 Barrels, 3 HR
Michael Toglia (COL) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Randal Grichuk (ARI) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Hardest Hit Balls
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 116.9mph - double
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 116.7mph - field_out
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 114.4mph - home_run
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 114.0mph - field_out
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) - 112.7mph - triple
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 112.4mph - nan
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) - 112.0mph - nan
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 111.4mph - home_run
Lawrence Butler (OAK) - 111.1mph - field_out
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 110.1mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Rhys Hoskins - 66 PA, 0.222 wOBA, 0.306 xwOBA, 0.084 Diff
Lenyn Sosa - 55 PA, 0.197 wOBA, 0.279 xwOBA, 0.082 Diff
Max Schuemann - 65 PA, 0.215 wOBA, 0.289 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Cal Raleigh - 71 PA, 0.217 wOBA, 0.286 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
Carlos Santana - 70 PA, 0.324 wOBA, 0.39 xwOBA, 0.066 Diff
Jackson Merrill - 72 PA, 0.401 wOBA, 0.464 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
Rafael Devers - 72 PA, 0.246 wOBA, 0.305 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
Derek Hill - 64 PA, 0.281 wOBA, 0.333 xwOBA, 0.052 Diff
Isaac Paredes - 73 PA, 0.239 wOBA, 0.291 xwOBA, 0.052 Diff
Jake Burger - 74 PA, 0.314 wOBA, 0.364 xwOBA, 0.05 Diff
Bottom 10
Connor Norby - 57 PA, 0.434 wOBA, 0.287 xwOBA, -0.147 Diff
Tyler Stephenson - 62 PA, 0.467 wOBA, 0.332 xwOBA, -0.135 Diff
JJ Bleday - 76 PA, 0.397 wOBA, 0.304 xwOBA, -0.093 Diff
Geraldo Perdomo - 77 PA, 0.357 wOBA, 0.265 xwOBA, -0.092 Diff
Ramon Laureano - 74 PA, 0.393 wOBA, 0.303 xwOBA, -0.09 Diff
Daulton Varsho - 67 PA, 0.392 wOBA, 0.305 xwOBA, -0.087 Diff
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 68 PA, 0.401 wOBA, 0.314 xwOBA, -0.087 Diff
Josh Lowe - 74 PA, 0.341 wOBA, 0.255 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
Paul Goldschmidt - 69 PA, 0.421 wOBA, 0.335 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
Bryson Stott - 67 PA, 0.385 wOBA, 0.306 xwOBA, -0.079 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Giancarlo Stanton - 62 PA, 33 BIP, 12 Brls, 36.4 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 77 PA, 48 BIP, 12 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Riley Greene - 57 PA, 29 BIP, 7 Brls, 24.1 Brl%
Paul DeJong - 61 PA, 30 BIP, 7 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Francisco Lindor - 90 PA, 63 BIP, 14 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Jhonkensy Noel - 63 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Michael Toglia - 73 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Wyatt Langford - 65 PA, 43 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.9 Brl%
Logan O'Hoppe - 54 PA, 24 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Corbin Carroll - 83 PA, 59 BIP, 12 Brls, 20.3 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Jackson Merrill - 72 PA, 0.464 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 77 PA, 0.46 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 64 PA, 0.459 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 87 PA, 0.452 xwOBA
Francisco Lindor - 90 PA, 0.448 xwOBA
Corbin Carroll - 83 PA, 0.444 xwOBA
Jackson Chourio - 79 PA, 0.44 xwOBA
Ramon Urias - 57 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Joc Pederson - 56 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Lawrence Butler - 76 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 74 PA, 138 Swings, 96.4 Cont%
Masataka Yoshida - 69 PA, 117 Swings, 91.5 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 66 PA, 107 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Sal Frelick - 58 PA, 115 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 87 PA, 138 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Jonah Bride - 72 PA, 119 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 61 PA, 115 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Brendan Donovan - 78 PA, 131 Swings, 88.5 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 74 PA, 132 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Jacob Young - 65 PA, 107 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Jose Ramirez - 7 Attempts (4 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 6 Attempts (6 steals)
Dylan Moore - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Oneil Cruz - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
James Wood - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Josh Lowe - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Garrett Mitchell - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Jesus Sanchez - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Mookie Betts - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Zach Neto - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jackson Merrill - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Bryson Stott - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Victor Robles - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Jose Ramirez - 15 Attempts (12 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 14 Attempts (14 steals)
James Wood - 11 Attempts (8 steals)
Xavier Edwards - 11 Attempts (11 steals)
Josh Lowe - 11 Attempts (11 steals)
Tyler Fitzgerald - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Oneil Cruz - 10 Attempts (10 steals)
Luis Robert - 10 Attempts (6 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Jose Caballero - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Dylan Moore - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Bobby Witt Jr. - 87 PA, 13.8 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Corbin Carroll - 83 PA, 19.3 K%, 20.3 Brl%
George Springer - 75 PA, 16.0 K%, 19.2 Brl%
Jackson Chourio - 79 PA, 16.5 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Jackson Merrill - 72 PA, 12.5 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 56 PA, 19.6 K%, 17.2 Brl%
Josh Jung - 64 PA, 18.8 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Juan Soto - 80 PA, 18.8 K%, 15.1 Brl%
Lawrence Butler - 76 PA, 10.5 K%, 18.5 Brl%
Matt Olson - 81 PA, 17.3 K%, 17.2 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 72 PA, 8.3 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 64 PA, 10.9 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers
Jackson Chourio - 120 PA, +0.13 xwOBA
Jackson Merrill - 110 PA, +0.119 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 122 PA, +0.1 xwOBA
Corbin Carroll - 120 PA, +0.096 xwOBA
Alex Bregman - 86 PA, +0.093 xwOBA
Joc Pederson - 85 PA, +0.092 xwOBA
Michael Toglia - 110 PA, +0.09 xwOBA
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 99 PA, +0.084 xwOBA
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 90 PA, +0.083 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 111 PA, +0.081 xwOBA
Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers
Giancarlo Stanton - 92 PA, +11.2 Brl%
Jackson Merrill - 110 PA, +10.6 Brl%
Alex Bregman - 86 PA, +10.4 Brl%
Corbin Carroll - 120 PA, +10.2 Brl%
Jackson Chourio - 120 PA, +8.1 Brl%
Ian Happ - 114 PA, +7.4 Brl%
Derek Hill - 93 PA, +7.2 Brl%
George Springer - 105 PA, +7.2 Brl%
Juan Soto - 123 PA, +7.1 Brl%
Willy Adames - 118 PA, +7.0 Brl%
Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers
Lawrence Butler - 108 PA, +14.3 Cont%
Shea Langeliers - 97 PA, +10.3 Cont%
Enrique Hernandez - 82 PA, +9.8 Cont%
Aaron Judge - 112 PA, +8.8 Cont%
Bryce Harper - 117 PA, +7.5 Cont%
Matt Vierling - 90 PA, +7.3 Cont%
Jonah Bride - 113 PA, +7.2 Cont%
Jake McCarthy - 121 PA, +7.0 Cont%
Eugenio Suarez - 119 PA, +7.0 Cont%
Masataka Yoshida - 108 PA, +6.9 Cont%
Last 30 Days - K% Improvers
Lawrence Butler - 108 PA, -14.3 K%
Jonny DeLuca - 88 PA, -12.4 K%
Parker Meadows - 94 PA, -11.0 K%
Jo Adell - 97 PA, -10.7 K%
Shea Langeliers - 97 PA, -10.3 K%
Matt Vierling - 90 PA, -10.1 K%
Eugenio Suarez - 119 PA, -9.4 K%
Oneil Cruz - 110 PA, -8.6 K%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 111 PA, -8.4 K%
Lenyn Sosa - 86 PA, -8.1 K%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Nolan Arenado - +6.0% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -3.9 Chase%
Lawrence Butler - +14.0% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -6.3 Chase%
Jurickson Profar - +4.0% Contact%, +3.9 mph exit velo, -9.2 Chase%
Ty France - +8.3% Contact%, +4.7 mph exit velo, -12.5 Chase%
Mike Yastrzemski - +5.5% Contact%, +5.9 mph exit velo, -6.5 Chase%
Matt Vierling - +12.2% Contact%, +4.5 mph exit velo, -4.6 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Corbin Carroll - 0.432 xwOBA, 18.6% Brl%, 78.6% Contact%, 22.9% Chase%, 21.3% K%
Juan Soto - 0.381 xwOBA, 15.9% Brl%, 81.6% Contact%, 21.8% Chase%, 18.8% K%
Lars Nootbaar - 0.379 xwOBA, 10.2% Brl%, 87.6% Contact%, 18.6% Chase%, 11.7% K%
Lawrence Butler - 0.465 xwOBA, 21.8% Brl%, 88.7% Contact%, 20.9% Chase%, 5.0% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Orlando Arcia - 37.6% Whiff%, 81.2% Weak%, 0.96 Cold Rating
Tyler Fitzgerald - 35.2% Whiff%, 76.0% Weak%, 0.912 Cold Rating
Leody Taveras - 32.9% Whiff%, 79.2% Weak%, 0.91 Cold Rating
Ceddanne Rafaela - 38.1% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.898 Cold Rating
Jackson Holliday - 38.4% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.884 Cold Rating
Zack Gelof - 38.3% Whiff%, 69.7% Weak%, 0.871 Cold Rating
Garrett Mitchell - 31.2% Whiff%, 78.9% Weak%, 0.865 Cold Rating
Randy Arozarena - 32.5% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.858 Cold Rating
Blake Perkins - 32.9% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.858 Cold Rating
David Peralta - 30.3% Whiff%, 77.4% Weak%, 0.839 Cold Rating
Minor League Reports
Top Minor League Hitting Performances - Yesterday
Damiano Palmegiani (TOR): 2/4, 2R, 2HR, 5RBI, 0SB, 34FPts
Chris Roller (MIL): 2/4, 3R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 34FPts
Rodolfo Durán (KC): 5/5, 2R, 0HR, 4RBI, 1SB, 34FPts
Victor Labrada (SEA): 2/3, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 2SB, 33FPts
Carson Williams (TB): 2/5, 2R, 1HR, 4RBI, 1SB, 30FPts
Jake Mangum (TB): 3/5, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 28FPts
Isaac Collins (MIL): 1/3, 3R, 0HR, 1RBI, 1SB, 27FPts
Zac Veen (COL): 3/5, 3R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0SB, 26FPts
J.C. Escarra (NYY): 2/3, 3R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0SB, 25FPts
Paul McIntosh (MIA): 2/4, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 25FPts
Top Minor League Pitching Performances - Yesterday
Ryan Gusto (HOU): 87 Pitches, 7IP, 2H, 1ER, 7K, 2BB, 29FPts
Trevor McDonald (SF): 81 Pitches, 6IP, 2H, 0ER, 5K, 0BB, 26FPts
John Bertrand (SF): 0 Pitches, 6IP, 4H, 0ER, 6K, 2BB, 25FPts
Lazaro Estrada (TOR): 75 Pitches, 6IP, 5H, 1ER, 7K, 1BB, 25FPts
Brandon Bielak (OAK): 81 Pitches, 6IP, 4H, 0ER, 5K, 0BB, 25FPts
Isaac Coffey (BOS): 95 Pitches, 6IP, 6H, 2ER, 9K, 1BB, 23FPts
Edgar Barclay (NYY): 78 Pitches, 7IP, 3H, 1ER, 3K, 1BB, 21FPts
Jerming Rosario (LAD): 85 Pitches, 5IP, 3H, 0ER, 5K, 4BB, 21FPts
Noah Skirrow (PHI): 84 Pitches, 5IP, 3H, 1ER, 5K, 2BB, 20FPts
Ian Seymour (TB): 67 Pitches, 5IP, 3H, 1ER, 5K, 2BB, 20FPts
AA-AAA OPS Leaders
Keston Hiura (AAA - LAA) 364 PA 0.943 OPS
Deyvison De Los Santos (AAA - MIA) 509 PA 0.941 OPS
Jason Vosler (AAA - SEA) 479 PA 0.924 OPS
Jimmy Crooks III (AA - STL) 353 PA 0.914 OPS
Dalton Rushing (AAA - LAD) 435 PA 0.908 OPS
CJ Alexander (AAA - KC) 349 PA 0.906 OPS
Pedro Leon (AAA - HOU) 480 PA 0.901 OPS
Jordan Diaz (AAA - OAK) 432 PA 0.901 OPS
Cal Stevenson (AAA - PHI) 393 PA 0.9 OPS
Colby Thomas (AAA - OAK) 501 PA 0.898 OPS
Willie MacIver (AAA - COL) 357 PA 0.894 OPS
Johnathan Rodriguez (AAA - CLE) 438 PA 0.894 OPS
Gustavo Campero (AAA - LAA) 402 PA 0.892 OPS
Ryan Noda (AAA - OAK) 426 PA 0.886 OPS
Carson Taylor (AA - PHI) 419 PA 0.885 OPS
Tirso Ornelas (AAA - SD) 478 PA 0.882 OPS
Bryson Brigman (AAA - ARI) 350 PA 0.876 OPS
Matt Koperniak (AAA - STL) 456 PA 0.87 OPS
Roman Anthony (AAA - BOS) 460 PA 0.869 OPS
Luke Ritter (AAA - NYM) 495 PA 0.868 OPS
AA-AAA Pitching K-BB% Leaders
Brandon Young (AAA - BAL) 95 IP 23.1% K-BB
Shane Smith (AA - MIL) 87 IP 22.6% K-BB
Thomas Harrington (AAA - PIT) 96 IP 22.3% K-BB
Bubba Chandler (AAA - PIT) 103 IP 22.0% K-BB
Yilber Diaz (AAA - ARI) 102 IP 21.6% K-BB
Ian Seymour (AAA - TB) 134 IP 21.4% K-BB
Noah Cameron (AAA - KC) 112 IP 21.4% K-BB
Brady Basso (AAA - OAK) 93 IP 21.2% K-BB
Troy Melton (AA - DET) 100 IP 20.7% K-BB
Robinson Pina (AAA - PHI) 115 IP 20.7% K-BB
Aaron Brown - 676345 (AAA - HOU) 96 IP 20.3% K-BB
Tyler Stuart (AAA - WSH) 118 IP 20.2% K-BB
Mason Barnett (AA - OAK) 120 IP 19.5% K-BB
Chayce McDermott (AAA - BAL) 97 IP 19.3% K-BB
Isaac Coffey (AA - BOS) 108 IP 19.1% K-BB
Carson Palmquist (AAA - COL) 112 IP 18.7% K-BB
Alex Pham (AA - BAL) 111 IP 18.7% K-BB
Drew Parrish (AA - ATL) 106 IP 18.7% K-BB
Carson Ragsdale (AAA - SF) 114 IP 18.6% K-BB
Joander Suarez (AAA - NYM) 123 IP 18.3% K-BB
Schedules & Streamers
Toughest Upcoming Hitter Schedules - Next 7 Days
LAA - 108.8 Opposing SP Stuff+
SD - 107.9 Opposing SP Stuff+
ATL - 107.0 Opposing SP Stuff+
OAK - 106.5 Opposing SP Stuff+
ARI - 104.9 Opposing SP Stuff+
Softest Upcoming Hitter Schedules - Next 7 Days
PIT - 89.1 Opposing SP Stuff+
DET - 91.4 Opposing SP Stuff+
TOR - 91.7 Opposing SP Stuff+
CWS - 91.9 Opposing SP Stuff+
MIL - 93.4 Opposing SP Stuff+
Today's SP Streamer Picks
MacKenzie Gore (31.0% Owned): Projected 6.13IP 2.87ER 5.87SO 2.22BB 15.96FPts
Bobby Miller (47.0% Owned): Projected 5.29IP 2.52ER 5.28SO 2.02BB 14.52FPts
JP Sears (39.0% Owned): Projected 5.71IP 2.81ER 5.42SO 1.84BB 14.36FPts
OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS
Jacob Young - 28 PA, 1.22 OPS
Mickey Moniak - 26 PA, 1.186 OPS
Seth Brown - 36 PA, 1.163 OPS
Kyle Stowers - 34 PA, 1.089 OPS
Brandon Marsh - 32 PA, 1.069 OPS
Andrew Benintendi - 38 PA, 1.066 OPS
Jesus Sanchez - 29 PA, 1.054 OPS
Addison Barger - 39 PA, 1.016 OPS
Santiago Espinal - 28 PA, 0.989 OPS
Ty France - 33 PA, 0.985 OPS
Today's Hitter Streamer Picks
Brandon Lowe 2B (44.0% Owned): Projected 0.69R 0.23HR 0.59RBI 1.18SO 0.44BB 0.06SB 8.73FPts
Jose Tena SS (0.0% Owned): Projected 0.63R 0.19HR 0.55RBI 0.99SO 0.24BB 0.1SB 8.32FPts
Tommy Pham LF (4.0% Owned): Projected 0.63R 0.11HR 0.47RBI 0.83SO 0.35BB 0.12SB 7.93FPts
Wilyer Abreu RF (35.0% Owned): Projected 0.65R 0.16HR 0.51RBI 1.19SO 0.49BB 0.08SB 7.89FPts
Joey Gallo LF (1.0% Owned): Projected 0.59R 0.27HR 0.62RBI 1.45SO 0.54BB 0.02SB 7.89FPts
Travis d'Arnaud C (12.0% Owned): Projected 0.58R 0.18HR 0.68RBI 0.85SO 0.25BB 0.02SB 7.89FPts
Dylan Crews OF (44.0% Owned): Projected 0.66R 0.12HR 0.47RBI 0.95SO 0.26BB 0.16SB 7.85FPts
Andres Chaparro 3B (0.0% Owned): Projected 0.58R 0.16HR 0.62RBI 0.84SO 0.31BB 0.03SB 7.81FPts
TJ Friedl LF (36.0% Owned): Projected 0.54R 0.11HR 0.61RBI 0.87SO 0.43BB 0.16SB 7.78FPts
Ryan O'Hearn 1B (31.0% Owned): Projected 0.61R 0.14HR 0.57RBI 0.51SO 0.34BB 0.04SB 7.76FPts
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