MLB Daily Notes - Sunday, April 17
Yo Happy Easter! We’re wrapping up week one today with another fun Sunday of action. I’ve decided to make the initial run of the week two projections free for everybody to check out. How it works is it looks at the schedule and all of the matchups, then projects each game individually as we do daily here, and then sums everything up to make one big flat table of projections with everything you need. A helpful resource in making start/sit or free-agent acquisition decisions.
I just got done taking my three-year-old daughter to the potty to go “poopy”, she was prairie doggin it a little bit, but we made it and everything was smooth and clean. So that’s a win. However, you never get used to looking at or wiping up the remains of someone else’s poop, even if they’re your own flesh and blood. I don’t know why I included that in these notes, I just enjoy bloviating to you all here each morning.
I finally told my family so now I can tell the masses of people who don’t care, but my wife is pregnant once again and by Christmas we’ll have three kids. So that’s wild. We weren’t wanting a third one, like not at all, but here we are, and certainly it’s not something we’ll regret… at least not after the first couple of years. I’m really in for it a ride here the next five years, but hey I’ve got three lottery tickets to try to end up with a kid who plays pro sports or becomes a sick Tik Tok celebrity. Just kidding my kids will never access the Internet as long as they live.
CSW% Leaders
1. Hunter Greene (CIN): 20.0 SwStr%, 38.8 CSW%
2. Justin Verlander (HOU): 19.5 SwStr%, 36.8 CSW%
3. Carlos Carrasco (NYM): 20.7 SwStr%, 35.4 CSW%
4. Steven Matz (STL): 11.7 SwStr%, 35.1 CSW%
5. Cody Poteet (MIA): 22.7 SwStr%, 34.8 CSW%
6. Michael Kopech (CWS): 17.3 SwStr%, 34.7 CSW%
7. Paul Blackburn (OAK): 11.0 SwStr%, 34.2 CSW%
8. Ranger Suarez (PHI): 6.4 SwStr%, 32.1 CSW%
9. Ian Anderson (ATL): 18.0 SwStr%, 30.3 CSW%
10. Josh Winder (MIN): 18.2 SwStr%, 30.3 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Justin Verlander - 8.0 IP - 89.75 JA Points
2. Hunter Greene - 5.67 IP - 65.75 JA Points
3. Carlos Carrasco - 5.0 IP - 63.0 JA Points
4. Michael Kopech - 5.0 IP - 61.25 JA Points
5. Cody Poteet - 3.33 IP - 56.75 JA Points
6. Steven Matz - 5.67 IP - 55.0 JA Points
7. Noah Syndergaard - 6.0 IP - 52.25 JA Points
8. Ian Anderson - 5.67 IP - 51.5 JA Points
9. Julio Urias - 5.0 IP - 39.75 JA Points
10. Garrett Whitlock - 2.33 IP - 37.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 1.0 GS - 89.5 JA Points
2. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) - 1.0 GS - 78.21 JA Points
3. Alex Cobb (SF) - 1.0 GS - 72.0 JA Points
4. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 2.0 GS - 67.22 JA Points
5. Patrick Sandoval (LAA) - 1.0 GS - 61.88 JA Points
6. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 2.0 GS - 61.88 JA Points
7. Josh Fleming (TB) - 1.0 GS - 61.5 JA Points
8. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 2.0 GS - 61.31 JA Points
9. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 2.0 GS - 61.17 JA Points
10. Kyle Wright (ATL) - 2.0 GS - 57.16 JA Points
Velo Changes
Cody Poteet's CH velo (20 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 89.0
Tanner Houck's FS velo (13 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 88.0
Hunter Greene's SL velo (18 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 87.9
Anthony DeSclafani's FF velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 92.6
Cal Quantrill's SI velo (38 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 92.7
Julio Urias's FF velo (36 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 92.3
Michael Kopech's FF velo (46 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 95.5
Cal Quantrill's FC velo (34 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 86.6
Anthony DeSclafani's SI velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 92.1
Jameson Taillon's SL velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 84.7
Michael Kopech's SL velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 82.1
Chris Flexen's FC velo (27 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 86.8
Corey Kluber's CU velo (25 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 79.6
Carlos Carrasco's SL velo (21 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 85.1
Chris Flexen's FF velo (34 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 90.2
Corey Kluber's SI velo (21 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 88.1
Corey Kluber's FC velo (24 pitches) DOWN -2.9mph to 84.6
Trevor Rogers's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -3.1mph to 78.7
Hyun Jin Ryu's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -3.2mph to 70.7
Pitch Mix Changes
Bryse Wilson's SI usage (33.8%) up 14.3 points
Bryse Wilson's SL usage (19.5%) up 13.8 points
Cal Quantrill's FC usage (37.4%) up 10.4 points
Cody Poteet's SI usage (19.7%) up 19.3 points
Hunter Greene's FF usage (71.2%) up 10.3 points
Josh Rogers's SL usage (47.1%) up 11.8 points
Josh Winder's SL usage (57.4%) up 11.0 points
Josh Winder's CH usage (21.3%) up 14.2 points
Kris Bubic's CU usage (30.3%) up 13.1 points
Michael Kopech's CU usage (22.7%) up 18.9 points
Nick Martinez's CU usage (19.4%) up 11.0 points
Noah Syndergaard's CU usage (15.9%) up 13.0 points
Paul Blackburn's CH usage (26.0%) up 11.6 points
Ranger Suarez's SI usage (73.1%) up 28.4 points
Taylor Hearn's SL usage (37.8%) up 17.2 points
Tyler Wells's CH usage (26.6%) up 15.5 points
Zac Gallen's CH usage (28.8%) up 10.5 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane McClanahan - 38 TBF, 39.2% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 45 TBF, 38.0% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 45 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 40 TBF, 36.1% CSW%
Paul Blackburn - 38 TBF, 36.1% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 39 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Kyle Gibson - 43 TBF, 35.8% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 45 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Steven Matz - 39 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Hunter Greene - 42 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Carlos Rodon - 45 TBF, 46.7% K%
Shane McClanahan - 38 TBF, 39.5% K%
Dylan Cease - 41 TBF, 39.0% K%
Kyle Gibson - 43 TBF, 37.2% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 39 TBF, 35.9% K%
Kyle Wright - 42 TBF, 35.7% K%
Merrill Kelly - 38 TBF, 34.2% K%
Carlos Carrasco - 38 TBF, 34.2% K%
Justin Verlander - 47 TBF, 31.9% K%
Chris Bassitt - 44 TBF, 31.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Carlos Rodon - 45 TBF, 37.8% K-BB%
Kyle Wright - 42 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Carlos Carrasco - 38 TBF, 31.6% K-BB%
Joe Musgrove - 45 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 45 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%
Tylor Megill - 36 TBF, 30.6% K-BB%
Kyle Gibson - 43 TBF, 30.2% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 39 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 41 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 38 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 39 TBF, 73.9% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 38 TBF, 69.0% GB%
Noah Syndergaard - 43 TBF, 68.6% GB%
Kyle Freeland - 46 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Logan Webb - 52 TBF, 61.0% GB%
Paul Blackburn - 38 TBF, 59.3% GB%
Aaron Nola - 40 TBF, 59.1% GB%
German Marquez - 47 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Mitch Keller - 41 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Tylor Megill - 36 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 40 TBF, 30.0 K%, 7.5 BB%, 59.1% GB%
Adam Ottavino - 16 TBF, 37.5 K%, 0.0 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Andrew Heaney - 18 TBF, 27.8 K%, 0.0 BB%, 58.3% GB%
Bryan Baker - 16 TBF, 37.5 K%, 6.2 BB%, 66.7% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 44 TBF, 31.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Jake Cousins - 18 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.6 BB%, 60.0% GB%
Jhoan Duran - 21 TBF, 38.1 K%, 4.8 BB%, 58.3% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 45 TBF, 31.1 K%, 0.0 BB%, 45.2% GB%
Josh Fleming - 30 TBF, 36.7 K%, 3.3 BB%, 72.2% GB%
Kendall Graveman - 18 TBF, 33.3 K%, 0.0 BB%, 58.3% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 43 TBF, 37.2 K%, 7.0 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Kyle Wright - 42 TBF, 35.7 K%, 2.4 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Luis Severino - 35 TBF, 31.4 K%, 5.7 BB%, 52.4% GB%
Matt Brash - 21 TBF, 28.6 K%, 4.8 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Michael Lorenzen - 20 TBF, 35.0 K%, 0.0 BB%, 69.2% GB%
Seranthony Dominguez - 16 TBF, 31.2 K%, 6.2 BB%, 60.0% GB%
Trevor Gott - 17 TBF, 35.3 K%, 0.0 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Tylor Megill - 36 TBF, 30.6 K%, 0.0 BB%, 56.0% GB%
Victor Arano - 20 TBF, 45.0 K%, 0.0 BB%, 54.5% GB%
Paul Blackburn just missed the cut here with a 26% K%, a 3% BB%, and a 59% GB%. He’s someone I’m adding this week for a start against Baltimore.
Multiple Barrels
C.J. Cron (COL) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Hunter Dozier (KC) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jeremy Pena (HOU) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 3 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Jeremy Pena - 4.0 PA - 47.5 JA Points
2. Matt Olson - 5.0 PA - 42.25 JA Points
3. C.J. Cron - 4.0 PA - 39.75 JA Points
4. Juan Soto - 5.0 PA - 36.0 JA Points
5. Hunter Dozier - 4.0 PA - 35.0 JA Points
6. Josh Donaldson - 5.0 PA - 33.25 JA Points
7. Robbie Grossman - 4.0 PA - 30.75 JA Points
8. Jose Abreu - 4.0 PA - 30.0 JA Points
9. Patrick Wisdom - 4.0 PA - 28.25 JA Points
10. Ke'Bryan Hayes - 4.0 PA - 27.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Alec Bohm (PHI) - 16.0 PA - 180.0 JA Points
2. Jonah Heim (TEX) - 17.0 PA - 154.71 JA Points
3. Nolan Arenado (STL) - 30.0 PA - 135.33 JA Points
4. Owen Miller (CLE) - 29.0 PA - 133.1 JA Points
5. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 16.0 PA - 128.75 JA Points
6. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 36.0 PA - 121.67 JA Points
7. Ji-Man Choi (TB) - 25.0 PA - 110.8 JA Points
8. Matt Olson (ATL) - 45.0 PA - 107.11 JA Points
9. Juan Soto (WSH) - 45.0 PA - 107.11 JA Points
10. Alex Verdugo (BOS) - 31.0 PA - 106.13 JA Points
Bohm being the top hitter made me wonder if I shouldn’t burn that model to the ground, but yo this guy is mashing the ball. No strikeouts, three walks, two barrels, six line drives. Low 68% contact rate so this strikeout thing probably won’t maintain for long, but he’s someone to keep an eye on, I suppose. It also helps he’s only gotten 16 PA to do this in, I should probably tighten up the PA constraints there pretty soon.
Hardest Hit Balls
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 114.7mph - double
Sean Murphy (OAK) - 114.0mph - home_run
Joey Votto (CIN) - 113.1mph - foul
Rhys Hoskins (PHI) - 112.8mph - foul
Harold Ramirez (TB) - 112.0mph - single
Jorge Soler (MIA) - 111.6mph - home_run
Matt Chapman (TOR) - 111.4mph - home_run
C.J. Cron (COL) - 110.9mph - home_run
Cesar Hernandez (WSH) - 110.8mph - field_out
Jeremy Pena (HOU) - 110.3mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Giancarlo Stanton - 36 PA, 24 BIP, 8 Brls, 33.3 Brl%
Seiya Suzuki - 29 PA, 16 BIP, 5 Brls, 31.2 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 37 PA, 24 BIP, 7 Brls, 29.2 Brl%
Jose Abreu - 33 PA, 22 BIP, 6 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Brandon Nimmo - 29 PA, 17 BIP, 4 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 34 PA, 17 BIP, 4 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 35 PA, 26 BIP, 6 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 33 PA, 18 BIP, 4 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Rhys Hoskins - 34 PA, 18 BIP, 4 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 39 PA, 23 BIP, 5 Brls, 21.7 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 37 PA, 57 Swings, 94.7 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 30 PA, 49 Swings, 91.8 Cont%
Austin Nola - 33 PA, 47 Swings, 91.5 Cont%
Owen Miller - 29 PA, 67 Swings, 91.0 Cont%
Amed Rosario - 36 PA, 57 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Starling Marte - 37 PA, 65 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 36 PA, 62 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 34 PA, 60 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Andy Ibanez - 29 PA, 42 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 42 PA, 62 Swings, 87.1 Cont%
Kwan back on top as contact king, but hitless in his last two games.
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Verdugo - 31 PA, 9.7 K%, 16.0 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 40 PA, 15.0 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Hunter Dozier - 28 PA, 14.3 K%, 17.4 Brl%
Jeremy Pena - 32 PA, 15.6 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Jose Ramirez - 36 PA, 5.6 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Luis Robert - 33 PA, 9.1 K%, 17.2 Brl%
Matt Olson - 45 PA, 17.8 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Mike Trout - 34 PA, 17.6 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Nolan Arenado - 30 PA, 10.0 K%, 21.7 Brl%
Tommy Edman - 27 PA, 14.8 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Next Week’s Hitter Projections - FREE
^ These will not be updated after today. For the ones that are updating throughout the week and for access to future weeks, become a paid subscriber!
Also below the fold here, you’ll get today’s daily projections updating constantly throughout the day, full hitter and pitcher data reports, and access to a couple of sweet Tableau dashboards that are super, super useful.
Here’s a snapshot of one of the several dozen things you can do with the MLB dashboard. I call it “sweet success rate”, and it’s the percentage of a hitter’s swings that end up in a barrel or the second-best batted ball classification, which is very similar to a barrel.
This Jeremy Pena fellow looks LEGIT.
More reading from me:
Starts & Sits For Every Week 2 Probable Pitcher
Okay now to the paid stuff!