MLB Daily Notes: Sunday, August 21
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
We have tickets for the South Bend Cubs game today, but the weather is looking terrible. My wife doesn’t want to go in the rain, but she’s concerned cause we already paid for the tickets.
This gave me yet another opportunity to take her to school. This time on the sunk cost fallacy:
the phenomenon whereby a person is reluctant to abandon a strategy or course of action because they have invested heavily in it, even when it is clear that abandonment would be more beneficial.
This situation isn’t an exact match of that definition, but it applies. The cost of the tickets has been sunk; it’s gone - not coming back (unless a PPD occurs but let’s ignore that). If sitting through a baseball game in the rain isn’t a positive experience, there’s no reason a rational person should go no matter what they paid for the tickets. You end up making yourself have a worse day just because you already paid for the event you won’t enjoy. It’s nonsense, but we do stuff like this all the time.
The storms also seem likely to wipe away Shohei Ohtani’s first two-start week of the season. He didn’t have a two-start week last year either with the Angels six-man rotation and how careful they are with him - but this was supposed to be the week! It was finally supposed to happen, and I really need this second start from him today in my home league, but it looks pretty unlikely. Woe is me.
Dustin May was absolutely incredible last night. He gave up a single and two walks in the first inning while striking out the side, and after that, he ripped off four perfect innings.
His outing looked like this:
1B, K, K, BB, BB, K, K, PO, GO, K, GO, GO, K, K, K, GO, LO, K
That’s 18 batters faced and nine strikeouts (50% K%), without a single fly ball allowed and just the two walks that came in the very first inning.
His game logs for the year:
The Marlins aren’t that high above a AAA lineup right now, but May is really, really good.
Last year, in five starts, he had a 34.5% CSW%, a 14.7% SwStr%, a 38% K%, and a 5.4% BB%. I mean he was looking like a Cy Young Award winner before his season came to an end. Here was the arsenal breakdown from 2021:
His sinker regularly hits 99, which gives it a higher than normal SwStr% - and the ground-balls come in bunches. That’s an amazing pitch for him, but prior to last year it didn’t have a great complementary pitch - but now he has this really good curveball to go with it along with a four-seamer and cutter to mix things up with. It’s an incredible pitch arsenal and I think May is one of the best pitchers in the league.
Alex Cobb had a crappy quality start in Coors, but I mention him because he did the thing that I think pitchers should do in Coors - throw the crap out of their sinker.
Maybe he just didn’t have a feel for the splitter and that’s why, but maybe he just understands that the only way to succeed in Coors is to either strike everybody out or keep the ball on the ground.
Here are the SLG numbers and ranks for Coors Field by each batted ball type.
Fly Balls: .947 (2nd in the league to BOS)
Line Drives: .919 (3rd in the league, MIA & LAD)
Ground Balls: .248 (27th in the league)
League averages for comparison
Fly Balls: .794
Line Drives: .874
Ground Balls: .263
So Coors is way, way above the league average in damage done by FB and LD, but they’re near the bottom in ground-balls. There’s probably nothing to that ground-ball number other than randomness, but it is evidence of the truth that the thin air doesn’t affect ground balls (that’s just common sense, right?). So when you go in there, you should just want to get as many balls on the ground as you can and hope for the best. Cobb did that, going for a 72% GB% and he kept the Rockies in check.
Why the Rockies don’t lead the league in sinker usage is beyond me. They are 5th in the league in that pitch but there’s no reason they shouldn’t be #1 by far from where I sit (which is on a couch in Indiana nowhere near actual professional baseball so maybe I should just STFU).
I did apply for a job as a data analyst for the Rockies and they told me to kick rocks, so joke’s on them! Didn’t want the job anyways!
Michael Massey is currently an MFQ (magic formula qualifier, trying to get that acronym going!). That’s surprising to me. He’s a rookie with the Royals who had some really nice minor league numbers:
And now he’s done this in the Majors:
He shockingly has a 15.7% Brl% in the bigs with a 75.5% contact%. That’s a really impressive first 66 PA for the kid and I think he can be added in deeper leagues.
Albert Pujols has a freaking .513 SLG this year with an 11.6% Brl% and one of the better PA/HR marks in the league of 17.3.
It’s still on the back of an absurd platoon split:
vs. RHB: .186/.387/.319, 4 HR, 7.8% Brl%, 78% Cont%, .296 xwOBA
vs. LHB: .381/.417/.774, 9 HR, 16.2% Brl%, 82% Cont%, .443 xwOBA
Guy is eight homers away from 700. He’s unlikely to get there this year, so I wonder if that’ll be a source of tension for him this offseason. Just come back to hit five more homers and get to 700 to be only the 4th person to do ever do that? He could even potentially pass Babe Ruth (714) with another good season.
Speaking of logical fallacies, it really doesn’t make sense to prioritize the number 700 in this situation. Like why do we like some numbers more just because they end in 0? The difference between 699 and 700 is the same as the difference between 698 and 699, but in our minds, it’s like “Oh I just have to get to 700”. But why?
Jake Fraley is super ultra mega hot:
0.389 xwOBA, 14.7% Brl%, 81.4% Contact%, 17.5% Chase%, 18.4% K%
So that’s hilarious. He’s a good acquisition as well!
On to the report!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Dustin May (LAD): 18.3 SwStr%, 40.8 CSW%
2. Drew Rasmussen (TB): 19.1 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
3. Cristian Javier (HOU): 15.1 SwStr%, 32.1 CSW%
4. Marcus Stroman (CHC): 10.4 SwStr%, 31.2 CSW%
5. Joe Musgrove (SD): 8.2 SwStr%, 30.9 CSW%
6. Ryan Feltner (COL): 11.6 SwStr%, 30.2 CSW%
7. Bailey Falter (PHI): 8.3 SwStr%, 29.8 CSW%
8. Shane Bieber (CLE): 14.1 SwStr%, 29.3 CSW%
9. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 9.1 SwStr%, 28.8 CSW%
10. Spencer Strider (ATL): 20.2 SwStr%, 28.8 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Spencer Strider - 6.0 IP - 73.25 JA Points
2. Drew Rasmussen - 5.67 IP - 67.75 JA Points
3. Dustin May - 5.0 IP - 64.25 JA Points
4. Joe Musgrove - 6.0 IP - 61.0 JA Points
5. Cristian Javier - 6.0 IP - 59.25 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole - 5.67 IP - 45.25 JA Points
7. Ryan Feltner - 6.0 IP - 38.25 JA Points
8. Michael Wacha - 5.67 IP - 37.5 JA Points
9. David Peterson - 4.67 IP - 37.25 JA Points
10. Mitch White - 4.0 IP - 34.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 15.0 GS - 56.34 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 24.0 GS - 53.08 JA Points
3. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 20.0 GS - 51.88 JA Points
4. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 23.0 GS - 51.62 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 24.0 GS - 50.43 JA Points
6. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 24.0 GS - 48.6 JA Points
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 25.0 GS - 48.4 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 17.0 GS - 47.23 JA Points
9. Blake Snell (SD) - 16.0 GS - 46.88 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 19.0 GS - 44.67 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
David Peterson's SL velo (26 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 86.1
Kyle Bradish's CU velo (16 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 84.5
Reid Detmers's SL velo (24 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 86.9
Bailey Falter's SL velo (10 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 84.9
Tyler Beede's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 89.2
Bailey Falter's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 77.5
David Peterson's FF velo (44 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 94.9
Johnny Cueto's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 82.3
Drew Rasmussen's FC velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 89.2
James Kaprielian's SL velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 83.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alex Cobb's SI usage (63.2%) up 20.9 points
Bailey Falter's FF usage (45.2%) up 30.1 points
Chris Archer's SL usage (57.1%) up 13.6 points
Cristian Javier's SL usage (39.6%) up 12.8 points
Gerrit Cole's SL usage (32.1%) up 10.8 points
Glenn Otto's SI usage (43.0%) up 15.0 points
Johnny Cueto's FF usage (25.7%) up 10.2 points
Justin Dunn's CU usage (34.5%) up 20.4 points
Mitch White's SL usage (39.7%) up 14.2 points
Ryan Feltner's SI usage (23.3%) up 10.6 points
Shane Bieber's FC usage (26.3%) up 14.7 points
Spencer Strider's SL usage (39.4%) up 12.9 points
Trevor Williams's SI usage (26.8%) up 14.8 points
Tyler Beede's SL usage (24.6%) up 10.7 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Nick Lodolo - 97 TBF, 38.2% CSW%
Jacob deGrom - 81 TBF, 36.7% CSW%
Triston McKenzie - 101 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 102 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 83 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Reid Detmers - 99 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
JT Brubaker - 89 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Aaron Ashby - 91 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 82 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Adam Wainwright - 105 TBF, 32.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 81 TBF, 45.7% K%
Spencer Strider - 82 TBF, 37.8% K%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 37.0% K%
Carlos Rodon - 93 TBF, 33.3% K%
Zac Gallen - 97 TBF, 32.0% K%
Triston McKenzie - 101 TBF, 31.7% K%
Reid Detmers - 99 TBF, 31.3% K%
George Kirby - 91 TBF, 29.7% K%
Aaron Nola - 102 TBF, 29.4% K%
Luis Castillo - 88 TBF, 28.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 81 TBF, 44.4% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 32.6% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 93 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 82 TBF, 30.5% K-BB%
Triston McKenzie - 101 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
George Kirby - 91 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 97 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 94 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 102 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 99 TBF, 24.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 83 TBF, 73.7% GB%
Zac Gallen - 97 TBF, 66.1% GB%
Antonio Senzatela - 88 TBF, 65.7% GB%
Logan Webb - 107 TBF, 63.8% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 95 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Dane Dunning - 94 TBF, 61.5% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 103 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Alex Cobb - 100 TBF, 59.4% GB%
Shane Bieber - 103 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 108 TBF, 57.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Archer - 72 TBF, 30.6 K%, 6.9 BB%, 53.3% GB%
George Kirby - 91 TBF, 29.7 K%, 3.3 BB%, 46.6% GB%
Jeffrey Springs - 62 TBF, 29.0 K%, 4.8 BB%, 56.1% GB%
Jordan Montgomery - 81 TBF, 28.4 K%, 6.2 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Lance Lynn - 94 TBF, 27.7 K%, 2.1 BB%, 47.7% GB%
Zac Gallen - 97 TBF, 32.0 K%, 6.2 BB%, 66.1% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Triston McKenzie - +5.5% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Lance Lynn - +2.5% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Corey Kluber - +3.5% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Jose Urquidy - +2.0% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Charlie Morton - +4.8% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Dean Kremer - +3.1% CSW%, -5.7 BB%
JT Brubaker - +4.4% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Austin Voth - +3.8% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Max Fried - +4.7% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Erasmo Ramirez - +4.1% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Michael Wacha - +6.8% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Albert Pujols (STL) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 10 PA, 17 Swings, 3 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Albert Pujols - 4.0 PA - 81.0 JA Points
2. Juan Soto - 4.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
3. Tucupita Marcano - 5.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
4. Eloy Jimenez - 4.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
5. Cody Bellinger - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
6. Vaughn Grissom - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
7. Lane Thomas - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
8. Ryan McMahon - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
9. Willson Contreras - 6.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
10. Kyle Schwarber - 5.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 421.0 PA - 142.42 JA Points
2. Juan Soto (SD) - 509.0 PA - 136.66 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 509.0 PA - 135.56 JA Points
4. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 491.0 PA - 116.66 JA Points
5. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 399.0 PA - 112.48 JA Points
6. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 523.0 PA - 111.89 JA Points
7. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
8. Will Smith (LAD) - 426.0 PA - 101.13 JA Points
9. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 445.0 PA - 97.44 JA Points
10. Alex Bregman (HOU) - 496.0 PA - 94.44 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Willson Contreras (CHC) - 112.8mph - nan
Michael Harris II (ATL) - 112.8mph - double
Mike Trout (LAA) - 112.5mph - nan
Daniel Vogelbach (NYM) - 111.8mph - nan
Willson Contreras (CHC) - 111.4mph - nan
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 111.3mph - double
Willson Contreras (CHC) - 111.2mph - force_out
Jo Adell (LAA) - 111.1mph - sac_fly
Sean Murphy (OAK) - 110.8mph - nan
Juan Soto (SD) - 110.7mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Max Muncy - 65 PA, 39 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.6 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 58 PA, 33 BIP, 8 Brls, 24.2 Brl%
Paul DeJong - 70 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Emmanuel Rivera - 52 PA, 31 BIP, 6 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 75 PA, 47 BIP, 9 Brls, 19.1 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 79 PA, 42 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.0 Brl%
Chas McCormick - 56 PA, 32 BIP, 6 Brls, 18.8 Brl%
Nick Pratto - 63 PA, 32 BIP, 6 Brls, 18.8 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 73 PA, 43 BIP, 8 Brls, 18.6 Brl%
Jesse Winker - 64 PA, 38 BIP, 7 Brls, 18.4 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Juan Soto - 85 PA, 0.456 xwOBA
Paul Goldschmidt - 79 PA, 0.437 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 79 PA, 0.427 xwOBA
Max Muncy - 65 PA, 0.419 xwOBA
Nick Gordon - 54 PA, 0.413 xwOBA
Rowdy Tellez - 62 PA, 0.41 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 79 PA, 0.404 xwOBA
Jesse Winker - 64 PA, 0.403 xwOBA
Lars Nootbaar - 73 PA, 0.402 xwOBA
Alex Bregman - 81 PA, 0.397 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 74 PA, 129 Swings, 94.6 Cont%
Nick Madrigal - 53 PA, 89 Swings, 93.3 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 77 PA, 131 Swings, 92.4 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 76 PA, 142 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 72 PA, 124 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 50 PA, 82 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 55 PA, 81 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 85 PA, 127 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 60 PA, 98 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Owen Miller - 52 PA, 100 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Christian Walker - 84 PA, 17.9 K%, 15.0 Brl%
Jesse Winker - 64 PA, 18.8 K%, 18.4 Brl%
Juan Soto - 85 PA, 12.9 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Michael Massey - 58 PA, 19.0 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Nick Gordon - 54 PA, 13.0 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 79 PA, 15.2 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 62 PA, 19.4 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 75 PA, 13.3 K%, 14.5 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 79 PA, 11.4 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Rhys Hoskins - +4.6% Contact%, +5.4 mph exit velo, -4.5 Chase%
Corey Seager - +6.6% Contact%, +4.9 mph exit velo, -6.8 Chase%
Nico Hoerner - +4.7% Contact%, +4.5 mph exit velo, -3.7 Chase%
Paul Goldschmidt - +7.5% Contact%, +4.2 mph exit velo, -4.2 Chase%
Jake Fraley - +5.5% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -3.0 Chase%
Leody Taveras - +3.9% Contact%, +3.7 mph exit velo, -10.2 Chase%
Shohei Ohtani - +3.6% Contact%, +4.4 mph exit velo, -7.4 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Adley Rutschman - 0.38 xwOBA, 10.3% Brl%, 84.9% Contact%, 19.9% Chase%, 16.9% K%
Alex Bregman - 0.426 xwOBA, 12.8% Brl%, 84.0% Contact%, 17.4% Chase%, 8.5% K%
Christian Walker - 0.416 xwOBA, 15.9% Brl%, 77.7% Contact%, 23.9% Chase%, 15.9% K%
Jake Fraley - 0.389 xwOBA, 14.7% Brl%, 81.4% Contact%, 17.5% Chase%, 18.4% K%
Juan Soto - 0.421 xwOBA, 13.2% Brl%, 81.8% Contact%, 15.1% Chase%, 15.6% K%
MJ Melendez - 0.398 xwOBA, 16.2% Brl%, 77.3% Contact%, 16.4% Chase%, 20.3% K%
Paul Goldschmidt - 0.449 xwOBA, 17.1% Brl%, 77.2% Contact%, 21.6% Chase%, 12.3% K%
Sean Murphy - 0.389 xwOBA, 11.4% Brl%, 83.5% Contact%, 24.4% Chase%, 8.6% K%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 0.45 xwOBA, 14.3% Brl%, 86.6% Contact%, 21.2% Chase%, 7.7% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Brandon Lowe - 36.8% Whiff%, 95.5% Weak%, 0.968 Cold Rating
Oneil Cruz - 48.0% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.962 Cold Rating
Jonathan Schoop - 35.4% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.913 Cold Rating
Brandon Belt - 35.1% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.912 Cold Rating
Chris Taylor - 43.5% Whiff%, 68.4% Weak%, 0.882 Cold Rating
Jeimer Candelario - 31.2% Whiff%, 78.3% Weak%, 0.879 Cold Rating
Josh Bell - 31.6% Whiff%, 75.7% Weak%, 0.86 Cold Rating
J.D. Martinez - 38.1% Whiff%, 68.0% Weak%, 0.852 Cold Rating
Jose Siri - 35.7% Whiff%, 68.2% Weak%, 0.843 Cold Rating
Randy Arozarena - 29.1% Whiff%, 75.8% Weak%, 0.817 Cold Rating
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