MLB Daily Notes: Sunday July 9, 2022
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
Google Colab is throttling me today, which is really scary news. I pay these guys $10/month for extra resources, and they’re shorting me on RAM hard right now. I suspect it’s just a bug today that will be fixed for tomorrow, but man that would be a major problem for me if it continues. Everything I’ve built here is dependent on these Python notebooks in Google Colab.
Thanks to some discussion with Derek Carty, I have improved the daily DraftKings projections model a bit. I’ll spare you the details right now, because we’ll talk about them on the podcast next week when Derek joins the show! I’m pretty excited about that one, we’ll talk about projection models and get a little more technical with it as well for people with that kind of interest. And you should have interest in that, because everybody should write Python and do projection modeling. Everybody. #LearnToCode - tell your kids, moms, and grandmas.
Hunter Greene had a good one. Man, have I been right about that guy! I said weeks ago that it would be a wild ride with this guy with high highs and low lows.
Kyle Wright put up a sick CSW% of 41.7% to lead the day. He has not quite been the super-ace we saw in April, but the 25%-8% K-BB% is more than fine.
It was a goofy start yesterday with an elite 15.5% SwStr% to go with that CSW%, but an underwhelming strikeout total (17.2%).
That hasn’t bee a trend for him this year though as his SwStr% and K% match up well, as this dude is directly in the center of the SwStr% vs. K% plot.
I’ve got a plot for just about everything at this point, but I’m not done adding on. I have put together an interactive 15-day moving average plot that compares wOBA to xwOBA. Here is Christian Walker:
So each day we take the wOBA and expected wOBA for the last 15 days and plot it, and then do that over and over again to form a line. So if, at any point, the green line is above the red - that would suggest that the hitter has been underperforming lately, hitting the ball better than the results show - and vice versa.
These lines ~should~ tend to be near each other, so if we see big gaps there’s something going on there.
You can play around with those plots here.
Last night I decided that I will carry this stuff on into the NFL season. I will do my best to get unique data reports and content, but it is much tougher with NFL. But at the very least, you’ll have everything you want in one place every week. I also have a projection system in the works, so we can have DraftKings projections going as well.
I think I might just make the whole thing paid though, giving nothing away for free. Christmas gifts aren’t gonna buy themselves! So stay tuned for that!
We saw two of the super mega hot hitters go deep last night, which proves nothing! I could just pick a random list of hitters every day and two of them would go yard pretty often - it wouldn’t be a rarity. But we’ll keep an eye on the super mega hot hitters, today those names are
Brandon Nimmo
Carlos Santana
George Springer
Jose Altuve
Juan Soto
Marcell Ozuna
Riley Greene
Now on to the notes! Happy Sunday, everybody!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Kyle Wright (ATL): 15.5 SwStr%, 41.7 CSW%
2. Brandon Woodruff (MIL): 16.3 SwStr%, 40.2 CSW%
3. Carlos Rodon (SF): 24.1 SwStr%, 40.2 CSW%
4. Kyle Gibson (PHI): 19.0 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
5. Yu Darvish (SD): 11.9 SwStr%, 32.7 CSW%
6. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 21.1 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
7. Hunter Greene (CIN): 19.3 SwStr%, 32.5 CSW%
8. Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 16.7 SwStr%, 32.4 CSW%
9. Jackson Kowar (KC): 13.3 SwStr%, 30.0 CSW%
10. Madison Bumgarner (ARI): 8.4 SwStr%, 29.9 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Carlos Rodon - 9.0 IP - 104.75 JA Points
2. Clayton Kershaw - 7.67 IP - 93.75 JA Points
3. Hunter Greene - 5.67 IP - 71.5 JA Points
4. Patrick Sandoval - 6.33 IP - 64.0 JA Points
5. Johnny Cueto - 8.0 IP - 56.5 JA Points
6. Kyle Gibson - 7.0 IP - 56.25 JA Points
7. Brandon Woodruff - 6.0 IP - 54.25 JA Points
8. Yu Darvish - 7.0 IP - 49.25 JA Points
9. Robbie Ray - 5.67 IP - 49.0 JA Points
10. Madison Bumgarner - 7.0 IP - 43.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 8 GS - 57.26 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 17 GS - 54.88 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 17 GS - 54.82 JA Points
4. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 17 GS - 52.91 JA Points
5. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 12 GS - 51.87 JA Points
6. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 14 GS - 50.41 JA Points
7. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 9 GS - 49.92 JA Points
8. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 17 GS - 46.94 JA Points
9. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 17 GS - 45.81 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 12 GS - 45.29 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Robbie Ray's FF velo (21 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 95.2
Jordan Montgomery's CU velo (21 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 81.7
Robbie Ray's SI velo (42 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 95.0
Hunter Greene's FF velo (67 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 100.1
Zach Thompson's SI velo (20 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 93.7
Zach Logue's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 78.5
Clayton Kershaw's SL velo (50 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 87.7
Robbie Ray's SL velo (30 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 88.4
Dakota Hudson's FF velo (31 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 90.0
Dakota Hudson's SI velo (26 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 90.2
Drew Rasmussen's FC velo (28 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 89.6
Dakota Hudson's SL velo (16 pitches) DOWN -5.5mph to 83.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Braxton Garrett's SI usage (30.4%) up 13.9 points
Dakota Hudson's FF usage (36.9%) up 21.2 points
Framber Valdez's CU usage (38.5%) up 10.7 points
Garrett Hill's SI usage (50.5%) up 19.7 points
Johnny Cueto's FC usage (26.7%) up 13.0 points
Jordan Montgomery's SI usage (50.0%) up 13.4 points
Kutter Crawford's FC usage (38.6%) up 10.5 points
Kyle Gibson's FC usage (33.3%) up 12.9 points
Kyle Wright's CU usage (42.9%) up 10.7 points
Marcus Stroman's FF usage (27.1%) up 10.8 points
Martin Perez's CH usage (45.4%) up 17.1 points
Patrick Sandoval's SI usage (31.6%) up 20.8 points
Robbie Ray's SI usage (44.2%) up 31.5 points
Yu Darvish's SI usage (27.0%) up 18.5 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 39.9% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 94 TBF, 38.4% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 93 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 85 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 104 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 76 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Noah Syndergaard - 78 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 100 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 44.7% K%
Cristian Javier - 89 TBF, 43.8% K%
Spencer Strider - 85 TBF, 40.0% K%
Dylan Cease - 93 TBF, 38.7% K%
Shane McClanahan - 94 TBF, 38.3% K%
David Peterson - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Blake Snell - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 33.3% K%
Josiah Gray - 78 TBF, 33.3% K%
Robbie Ray - 96 TBF, 33.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 38.2% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 85 TBF, 35.3% K-BB%
Cristian Javier - 89 TBF, 34.8% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 94 TBF, 34.0% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 93 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Josiah Gray - 78 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
David Peterson - 91 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Patrick Sandoval - 76 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 100 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 109 TBF, 67.6% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 118 TBF, 64.4% GB%
Andre Pallante - 96 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 76 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Alex Cobb - 81 TBF, 61.9% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 94 TBF, 59.3% GB%
Mitch Keller - 93 TBF, 57.1% GB%
David Peterson - 91 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Dallas Keuchel - 73 TBF, 54.7% GB%
Justin Steele - 75 TBF, 54.5% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Clayton Kershaw - 103 TBF, 28.2 K%, 5.8 BB%, 50.0% GB%
David Peterson - 91 TBF, 35.2 K%, 7.7 BB%, 56.0% GB%
Luis Castillo - 104 TBF, 29.8 K%, 7.7 BB%, 53.2% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 94 TBF, 38.3 K%, 4.3 BB%, 59.3% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Carlos Rodon - +3.6% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Shane McClanahan - +4.0% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Josiah Gray - +3.0% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Patrick Sandoval - +2.0% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.3% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Cristian Javier - +6.0% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Brandon Woodruff - +7.6% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Bryse Wilson - +5.1% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Multiple Barrels
J.D. Martinez (BOS) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 3 Barrels, 0 HR
Brandon Drury (CIN) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Sean Murphy (OAK) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Marcus Semien - 5.0 PA - 64.0 JA Points
2. Corey Seager - 4.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
3. J.D. Martinez - 4.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
4. Jose Ramirez - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
5. Nolan Jones - 6.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
6. Austin Riley - 4.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
7. Ji-Man Choi - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
8. Brandon Drury - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
9. Jesus Aguilar - 5.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
10. Sean Murphy - 4.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 312.0 PA - 148.85 JA Points
2. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 279.0 PA - 129.75 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 354.0 PA - 120.9 JA Points
4. Juan Soto (WSH) - 360.0 PA - 118.89 JA Points
5. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 318.0 PA - 115.09 JA Points
6. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 356.0 PA - 113.03 JA Points
7. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 363.0 PA - 108.54 JA Points
8. Will Smith (LAD) - 290.0 PA - 108.28 JA Points
9. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 315.0 PA - 106.54 JA Points
10. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 307.0 PA - 104.36 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Rowdy Tellez (MIL) - 112.5mph - field_out
Avisail Garcia (MIA) - 112.5mph - single
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 112.3mph - home_run
Randal Grichuk (COL) - 112.2mph - nan
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 112.0mph - double
Elehuris Montero (COL) - 111.2mph - foul
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) - 110.7mph - single
Franmil Reyes (CLE) - 110.7mph - double
Ian Happ (CHC) - 110.4mph - foul
Francisco Lindor (NYM) - 110.3mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Yordan Alvarez - 66 PA, 38 BIP, 12 Brls, 31.6 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 75 PA, 49 BIP, 13 Brls, 26.5 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 75 PA, 48 BIP, 12 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Luke Voit - 71 PA, 37 BIP, 9 Brls, 24.3 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 80 PA, 59 BIP, 14 Brls, 23.7 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 81 PA, 47 BIP, 11 Brls, 23.4 Brl%
Diego Castillo - 50 PA, 30 BIP, 7 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Franmil Reyes - 69 PA, 39 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Jorge Alfaro - 52 PA, 28 BIP, 6 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Bryan De La Cruz - 48 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 88 PA, 133 Swings, 94.7 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 78 PA, 122 Swings, 92.6 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 57 PA, 115 Swings, 91.3 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 57 PA, 96 Swings, 90.6 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 50 PA, 72 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Austin Nola - 49 PA, 78 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Wander Franco - 57 PA, 103 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 62 PA, 121 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Alex Verdugo - 80 PA, 136 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 67 PA, 122 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Julio Rodriguez - 80 PA, 17.5 K%, 23.7 Brl%
Robert Refsnyder - 51 PA, 19.6 K%, 18.9 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 70 PA, 12.9 K%, 17.0 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 66 PA, 10.6 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 75 PA, 18.7 K%, 25.0 Brl%
Yadiel Hernandez - 56 PA, 12.5 K%, 15.6 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Matt Chapman - +3.8% Contact%, +5.4 mph exit velo, -9.4 Chase%
Jonathan Schoop - +12.0% Contact%, +5.6 mph exit velo, -6.9 Chase%
Jeimer Candelario - +9.2% Contact%, +4.5 mph exit velo, -5.0 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Brandon Nimmo - 0.377 xwOBA, 18.6% Brl%, 83.9% Contact%, 24.5% Chase%, 19.0% K%
Carlos Santana - 0.418 xwOBA, 15.2% Brl%, 75.6% Contact%, 24.5% Chase%, 19.6% K%
George Springer - 0.423 xwOBA, 14.3% Brl%, 75.9% Contact%, 23.0% Chase%, 10.5% K%
Jose Altuve - 0.43 xwOBA, 12.2% Brl%, 83.1% Contact%, 21.4% Chase%, 8.5% K%
Juan Soto - 0.469 xwOBA, 10.0% Brl%, 76.1% Contact%, 17.1% Chase%, 13.7% K%
Marcell Ozuna - 0.406 xwOBA, 14.0% Brl%, 84.0% Contact%, 21.8% Chase%, 14.3% K%
Riley Greene - 0.391 xwOBA, 13.6% Brl%, 75.4% Contact%, 22.0% Chase%, 22.7% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Jorge Mateo - 43.0% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.946 Cold Rating
Patrick Wisdom - 35.4% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.933 Cold Rating
Javier Baez - 35.2% Whiff%, 71.9% Weak%, 0.926 Cold Rating
Bligh Madris - 34.4% Whiff%, 73.7% Weak%, 0.921 Cold Rating
Orlando Arcia - 33.9% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.908 Cold Rating
Cal Raleigh - 34.7% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.899 Cold Rating
Brian Anderson - 34.6% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.891 Cold Rating
Franmil Reyes - 39.2% Whiff%, 64.5% Weak%, 0.848 Cold Rating
Trevor Story - 32.1% Whiff%, 68.8% Weak%, 0.842 Cold Rating
Michael A. Taylor - 29.5% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.84 Cold Rating
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