MLB Daily Notes: Sunday, May 22
Heyo it’s Sunday so we’re in for a shorter version of the notes here. I’m going to really try to restrict my time on the computer and my phone on Sundays. All I’m doing for fantasy baseball (and the fact that I love fantasy baseball so much) has me really on my phone a lot of hours through the week, so maybe Sunday can be a “recharge” day to use that awful, generic term.
Another note that I’m traveling to Pittsburgh for work. I’ll be there for 3 days, it shouldn’t cause any issues with the notes but it’s possible I can’t keep the projections updated every 20 minutes like normal.
Now let’s get into something that probably nobody wants to hear more about before we do the rest of the notes, and then I’m shutting up for the day.
I have re-noticed that plenty of people, especially on the Internet, are really averse to giving people the benefit of the doubt. I voiced my opinion about the Josh Donaldson / Tim Anderson dust-up last night, and it wasn’t well-received by everyone. That is perfectly expected and perfectly fine, but I do think I was right. I ignored most of the replies, had a beautiful night’s sleep, and then re-read my tweet this morning to see if I was wrong. Often time I do realize that I was at least partially wrong when I do that, but not this time.
I think Donaldson was clearly referring to Anderson saying felt like today’s Jackie Robinson a few years back and making a comment on the lameness of saying something like that. I am guessing that Anderson doesn’t really feel like he compares to Jackie Robinson, and that comment is probably something he would word differently he could go back. But you can understand why someone saying something like that in 2019 might be looked at as pretty lame by other people.
So I can give both people the benefit of the doubt, but why are some people so unwilling to give Donaldson the benefit of the doubt here? I would think that everybody would have to admit that there are multiple possible explanations for what he said and his intent behind them. One explanation makes Donaldson look like a real awful guy, the other just makes him look like a normal professional athlete in the heat of a competitive moment.
But for someone to choose the latter explanation, the one that seems way more likely to be true, makes tons of people very angry. Why? I saw a few of the replies to me were being critical of my having an opinion on the matter since I wasn’t involved in the conflict and I don’t know the people. A couple of things on that
If we could only talk about things we knew everything about, Twitter would be a quiet place (maybe it would be better for society, but that is more or less the point of Twitter, and most people really like it).
I doubt I would have gotten those same replies from those people if I were taking the other side of the conflict. It’s typically perfectly fine for any person to have any opinion as long as it’s the “right” one.
I chose the explanation that gives another human being the benefit of the doubt and gives the most amount of grace. So even if it turns out I’m wrong, I still feel good about defaulting to that position.
Didn’t really intend to get that far into it this morning - but I never really intended these posts to be 100% fantasy-baseball centered. I have lured you all in, you took the bait, and now you’re subject to all of my hideous opinions!
Let’s proceed!
Strikeout Prop Bets
We had Bieber, Verlander, and Montas yesterday. Bieber got rained out, Verlander hit easy, and Montas left in the first inning with a finger issue. That’s officially a one-for-two, but c’mon!
Took these two already and I expect these lines to move in our direction as the days goes, I think they’re both really strong:
Merrill Kelly over 4.5 (-134 on FanDuel)
Bieber over 6.5 (-135 on DraftKings)
see the full projections & sportsbook comparisons in the premium google sheet, available to paid subs
Now the notes! Happy Sunday everyone!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Aaron Nola (PHI): 15.3 SwStr%, 39.8 CSW%
2. Elieser Hernandez (MIA): 15.7 SwStr%, 38.6 CSW%
3. Jeffrey Springs (TB): 20.0 SwStr%, 35.0 CSW%
4. Alek Manoah (TOR): 19.3 SwStr%, 34.9 CSW%
5. Justin Verlander (HOU): 15.8 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
6. Jose Quintana (PIT): 15.6 SwStr%, 31.2 CSW%
7. Joe Musgrove (SD): 8.0 SwStr%, 31.0 CSW%
8. Madison Bumgarner (ARI): 10.2 SwStr%, 30.6 CSW%
9. Joe Ryan (MIN): 11.4 SwStr%, 30.4 CSW%
10. Justin Steele (CHC): 12.4 SwStr%, 30.3 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Justin Verlander - 5.67 IP - 66.0 JA Points
2. Aaron Nola - 5.33 IP - 63.25 JA Points
3. Justin Steele - 5.0 IP - 61.5 JA Points
4. Brandon Woodruff - 5.67 IP - 54.0 JA Points
5. Nestor Cortes - 5.0 IP - 53.0 JA Points
6. Alek Manoah - 7.67 IP - 50.0 JA Points
7. Madison Bumgarner - 7.0 IP - 49.5 JA Points
8. Jeffrey Springs - 5.67 IP - 47.5 JA Points
9. Michael Lorenzen - 6.0 IP - 45.75 JA Points
10. Elieser Hernandez - 4.67 IP - 43.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 8.0 GS - 56.99 JA Points
2. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 8.0 GS - 56.08 JA Points
3. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 8.0 GS - 54.04 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 7.0 GS - 53.37 JA Points
5. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 7.0 GS - 50.98 JA Points
6. Lucas Giolito (CWS) - 6.0 GS - 49.65 JA Points
7. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 8.0 GS - 49.03 JA Points
8. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 8.0 GS - 48.95 JA Points
9. Alex Cobb (SF) - 6.0 GS - 48.41 JA Points
10. Wil Crowe (PIT) - 1.0 GS - 46.4 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Nestor Cortes's SL velo (18 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 78.1
German Marquez's SI velo (13 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 95.8
Joe Musgrove's FF velo (21 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 93.8
Hunter Greene's FF velo (40 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 100.1
Kyle Wright's SI velo (35 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 96.0
Kyle Wright's FF velo (16 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 97.0
Kyle Wright's CH velo (18 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 89.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Brad Keller's SI usage (38.1%) up 15.0 points
Brandon Woodruff's FF usage (49.0%) up 13.6 points
Carlos Rodon's FF usage (75.0%) up 11.4 points
Elieser Hernandez's SL usage (47.1%) up 10.8 points
Hunter Greene's SL usage (52.4%) up 10.4 points
Kyle Wright's SI usage (38.5%) up 20.2 points
Madison Bumgarner's FF usage (33.7%) up 10.3 points
Mike Baumann's SL usage (43.1%) up 31.3 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 79 TBF, 37.7% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 70 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 90 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Lucas Giolito - 69 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Freddy Peralta - 70 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Jordan Montgomery - 84 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 100 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Zack Wheeler - 74 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 90 TBF, 43.3% K%
Freddy Peralta - 70 TBF, 35.7% K%
Brandon Woodruff - 88 TBF, 34.1% K%
Tarik Skubal - 88 TBF, 34.1% K%
Shane McClanahan - 70 TBF, 32.9% K%
JT Brubaker - 68 TBF, 32.4% K%
Sean Manaea - 78 TBF, 32.1% K%
Robbie Ray - 100 TBF, 32.0% K%
Lucas Giolito - 69 TBF, 31.9% K%
Cristian Javier - 73 TBF, 31.5% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 90 TBF, 35.6% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 70 TBF, 30.0% K-BB%
Brandon Woodruff - 88 TBF, 29.5% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 70 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 74 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 88 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 79 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Sean Manaea - 78 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Cobb - 74 TBF, 65.3% GB%
Framber Valdez - 111 TBF, 63.0% GB%
Patrick Sandoval - 80 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 91 TBF, 61.6% GB%
Adrian Houser - 71 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Drew Rasmussen - 78 TBF, 58.6% GB%
Michael Lorenzen - 102 TBF, 58.4% GB%
Dane Dunning - 72 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Martin Perez - 108 TBF, 57.0% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 70 TBF, 56.8% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 100 TBF, 30.0 K%, 5.0 BB%, 45.3% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 28.4 K%, 2.0 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Frankie Montas - 83 TBF, 28.9 K%, 4.8 BB%, 52.7% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 70 TBF, 35.7 K%, 5.7 BB%, 53.8% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 79 TBF, 30.4 K%, 2.5 BB%, 47.2% GB%
Michael King - 51 TBF, 35.3 K%, 3.9 BB%, 48.4% GB%
Nick Martinez - 57 TBF, 31.6 K%, 5.3 BB%, 52.8% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 70 TBF, 32.9 K%, 4.3 BB%, 56.8% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 88 TBF, 34.1 K%, 5.7 BB%, 47.2% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Bo Bichette (TOR) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Brian Serven (COL) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
C.J. Cron (COL) 8 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Rafael Devers (BOS) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Randy Arozarena (TB) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
William Contreras (ATL) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. William Contreras - 4.0 PA - 73.0 JA Points
2. Randy Arozarena - 4.0 PA - 70.0 JA Points
3. D.J. LeMahieu - 5.0 PA - 57.0 JA Points
4. Brian Serven - 4.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
5. Mookie Betts - 5.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
6. Andrew Benintendi - 4.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
7. Rafael Devers - 4.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
8. Mike Yastrzemski - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
9. Alejandro Kirk - 4.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
10. Joc Pederson - 3.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 131.0 PA - 161.22 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 159.0 PA - 135.09 JA Points
3. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 145.0 PA - 128.83 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 172.0 PA - 128.37 JA Points
5. Mike Trout (LAA) - 152.0 PA - 124.47 JA Points
6. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 158.0 PA - 121.27 JA Points
7. Juan Soto (WSH) - 180.0 PA - 119.11 JA Points
8. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 172.0 PA - 115.81 JA Points
9. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 120.0 PA - 105.0 JA Points
10. Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 153.0 PA - 104.84 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 119.1mph - single
Harold Ramirez (TB) - 113.7mph - field_out
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 113.7mph - single
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 112.8mph - triple
Patrick Wisdom (CHC) - 112.2mph - home_run
Ryan McMahon (COL) - 111.9mph - field_out
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 110.8mph - single
Franchy Cordero (BOS) - 110.5mph - triple
Garrett Cooper (MIA) - 110.4mph - single
Willson Contreras (CHC) - 110.0mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 56 PA, 24 BIP, 7 Brls, 29.2 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 70 PA, 49 BIP, 13 Brls, 26.5 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 75 PA, 47 BIP, 12 Brls, 25.5 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 77 PA, 45 BIP, 11 Brls, 24.4 Brl%
Mike Trout - 76 PA, 42 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.8 Brl%
Kole Calhoun - 63 PA, 38 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.7 Brl%
Gary Sanchez - 72 PA, 43 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Trevor Story - 79 PA, 46 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.7 Brl%
J.D. Martinez - 80 PA, 57 BIP, 12 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Patrick Wisdom - 62 PA, 31 BIP, 6 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 51 PA, 81 Swings, 92.6 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 62 PA, 83 Swings, 91.6 Cont%
Michael Brantley - 77 PA, 124 Swings, 91.1 Cont%
Wander Franco - 73 PA, 153 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 68 PA, 129 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Ty France - 89 PA, 171 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Myles Straw - 65 PA, 104 Swings, 87.5 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 79 PA, 152 Swings, 87.5 Cont%
Abraham Toro - 65 PA, 110 Swings, 87.3 Cont%
D.J. LeMahieu - 71 PA, 123 Swings, 87.0 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Bryce Harper - 56 PA, 17.9 K%, 16.3 Brl%
Christian Walker - 80 PA, 20.0 K%, 17.0 Brl%
Christian Yelich - 80 PA, 20.0 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 70 PA, 18.6 K%, 26.5 Brl%
Jazz Chisholm - 74 PA, 18.9 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Josh Donaldson - 66 PA, 19.7 K%, 15.9 Brl%
Juan Soto - 80 PA, 13.8 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 85 PA, 20.0 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 82 PA, 19.5 K%, 18.3 Brl%
Willson Contreras - 65 PA, 20.0 K%, 15.4 Brl%
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