^ I added that picture so the previews of the posts look better. Made that shit on Microsoft Word. Let me know if you need any graphic design work done!
Welcome to the Thursday Daily Notes, and thanks for being here for the first week of the season. It’s been pretty overwhelming getting everything running, but the feedback has been encouraging and I’ve racked up more subscribers than I thought I would so quickly!
But now, I have to drop a hammer on you.
The daily projections and custom data sheets, as well as full access to my Tableau dashboard are now for paid subscribers of my Substack. I am only asking for $5 a month, and it really does help me keep putting all of this (even the free stuff) out. There are server costs involved with all the stuff I do, so making a bit of money back would be a nice add-on this year.
As a subscriber, you can feel free to request any custom reports you might want to see updated throughout the season. Almost anything you can imagine is possible with Baseball Savant and Python! I really appreciate anybody who subscribes.
To recap, here’s what you’ll get with the paid subscription
Daily hitter & pitcher projections, updated throughout the day as things change
Those projections on a super user-friendly Tableau dashboard (screenshot of it below)
The JA Model’s full hitter and pitcher ranks, updated daily
Access to my MLB Tableau dashboard, which I really believe is the best fantasy baseball resource on the Internet once you learn how to use it
Access to full hitter and pitcher data reports in Google Sheets, updated daily
Ability to request any custom data report you might want to see updated daily
The feeling that you have my gratitude
Here’s a five-minute video showing you a tiny little bit of what you can do with the MLB dashboard. It’s a super, super powerful tool and I really believe it’s the best MLB research tool on the Internet.
Here is a screenshot of that projection dashboard, super useful in quickly showing the top DFS values and projections:
Now for your usual programming.
The controversy of yesterday was Clayton Kershaw being yanked with a perfect game and less than 90 pitches thrown.
One side says it’s not worth the risk, perfect games aren’t really all that important as compared to keeping your best players healthy for a World Series run. The other side says it’s well worth the risk because perfect games are incredible and you should let players try to finish the job when they have the chance to make history.
The real questions are, what is the risk? And what level of risk does a perfect game justify? Is Kershaw truly more likely to get injured this year if he would have thrown 110 pitches yesterday? Probably, but by how much? I’d have to imagine it’s pretty small.
Does a perfect game justify no additional injury risk? Maybe that’s the opinion the Dodgers’ have, and it’s not a crazy opinion either - seems reasonable to me. They don’t really make any extra profit off of one perfect game, while they certainly make tons of extra profit off winning a division and going deep into the playoffs.
What would I have done, you ask? Oh, you didn’t ask? Nobody cares? Okay, on to the daily notes!
1. Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 25.0 SwStr%, 41.2 CSW%
2. Shane McClanahan (TB): 18.8 SwStr%, 41.2 CSW%
3. Logan Webb (SF): 15.6 SwStr%, 37.5 CSW%
4. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 20.0 SwStr%, 36.5 CSW%
5. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 20.6 SwStr%, 35.1 CSW%
6. Max Scherzer (NYM): 16.7 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
7. Cristian Javier (HOU): 15.1 SwStr%, 32.1 CSW%
8. Josiah Gray (WSH): 11.0 SwStr%, 31.7 CSW%
9. Jose Berrios (TOR): 12.5 SwStr%, 30.0 CSW%
10. Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 7.7 SwStr%, 29.5 CSW%
1. Clayton Kershaw - 7.0 IP - 109.5 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes - 7.0 IP - 75.0 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan - 4.67 IP - 72.75 JA Points
4. Frankie Montas - 6.33 IP - 62.0 JA Points
5. Max Scherzer - 4.67 IP - 61.25 JA Points
6. Logan Webb - 8.0 IP - 58.5 JA Points
7. Sean Manaea - 6.0 IP - 56.0 JA Points
8. Triston McKenzie - 3.67 IP - 50.25 JA Points
9. Steven Wilson - 2.0 IP - 45.5 JA Points
10. Gerrit Cole - 5.67 IP - 45.0 JA Points
1. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 1.0 GS - 100.0 JA Points
2. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 1.0 GS - 89.5 JA Points
3. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) - 1.0 GS - 78.21 JA Points
4. Alex Cobb (SF) - 1.0 GS - 72.0 JA Points
5. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 2.0 GS - 67.22 JA Points
6. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 1.0 GS - 63.75 JA Points
7. Pablo Lopez (MIA) - 1.0 GS - 63.5 JA Points
8. Lucas Giolito (CWS) - 1.0 GS - 63.44 JA Points
9. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 1.0 GS - 63.21 JA Points
10. Patrick Sandoval (LAA) - 1.0 GS - 61.88 JA Points
Triston McKenzie's SL velo (13 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 88.5
Triston McKenzie's FF velo (44 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 93.7
Wil Crowe's SL velo (15 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 86.8
Framber Valdez's FF velo (15 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 93.5
Frankie Montas's FS velo (32 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 86.0
Sean Manaea's SI velo (56 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 90.5
Josiah Gray's SL velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 83.9
Frankie Montas's SL velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 87.3
Gerrit Cole's SL velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 86.7
Clayton Kershaw's SL velo (41 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 85.3
Cristian Javier's SL velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 79.2
Shane McClanahan's CH velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 87.3
Clayton Kershaw's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 72.3
Josiah Gray's CU velo (28 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 81.7
Nathan Eovaldi's FC velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 90.5
Robbie Ray's SL velo (37 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 86.0
Chris Paddack's FF velo (46 pitches) DOWN -2.8mph to 92.0
Robbie Ray's FF velo (47 pitches) DOWN -3.0mph to 91.7
Chris Paddack's CU velo (13 pitches) DOWN -3.0mph to 75.7
Chris Paddack's CH velo (14 pitches) DOWN -3.1mph to 82.1
Cristian Javier's SL usage (43.4%) up 16.3 points
Eduardo Rodriguez's FF usage (58.3%) up 18.5 points
Framber Valdez's FF usage (20.0%) up 14.8 points
Frankie Montas's FS usage (36.0%) up 13.3 points
Gerrit Cole's FC usage (12.9%) up 12.8 points
Robbie Ray's SL usage (42.0%) up 10.1 points
Shane McClanahan's CU usage (34.1%) up 17.0 points
Zach Thompson's SI usage (28.4%) up 20.4 points
Shane McClanahan - 38 TBF, 39.2% CSW%
Logan Webb - 52 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Kyle Hendricks - 45 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Tylor Megill - 36 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 46 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 39 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Nathan Eovaldi - 43 TBF, 31.6% CSW%
Tyler Mahle - 38 TBF, 31.5% CSW%
Frankie Montas - 47 TBF, 31.5% CSW%
Max Scherzer - 44 TBF, 31.2% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 38 TBF, 39.5% K%
Merrill Kelly - 38 TBF, 34.2% K%
Tylor Megill - 36 TBF, 30.6% K%
Nathan Eovaldi - 43 TBF, 30.2% K%
Aaron Nola - 40 TBF, 30.0% K%
Max Scherzer - 44 TBF, 29.5% K%
Sean Manaea - 45 TBF, 28.9% K%
Tyler Mahle - 38 TBF, 28.9% K%
Josiah Gray - 38 TBF, 26.3% K%
Corbin Burnes - 46 TBF, 26.1% K%
Tylor Megill - 36 TBF, 30.6% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 38 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 43 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%
Merrill Kelly - 38 TBF, 23.7% K-BB%
Frankie Montas - 47 TBF, 23.4% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 40 TBF, 22.5% K-BB%
Sean Manaea - 45 TBF, 22.2% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 44 TBF, 20.5% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 37 TBF, 18.9% K-BB%
Tyler Mahle - 38 TBF, 18.4% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 39 TBF, 73.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 52 TBF, 61.0% GB%
Aaron Nola - 40 TBF, 59.1% GB%
Tylor Megill - 36 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 38 TBF, 52.9% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 38 TBF, 52.4% GB%
Patrick Corbin - 38 TBF, 48.0% GB%
Max Fried - 49 TBF, 47.4% GB%
Robbie Ray - 56 TBF, 45.0% GB%
Sean Manaea - 45 TBF, 44.8% GB%
Aaron Nola - 40 TBF, 30.0 K%, 7.5 BB%, 59.1% GB%
Adam Wainwright - 21 TBF, 28.6 K%, 0.0 BB%, 53.3% GB%
Andrew Heaney - 18 TBF, 27.8 K%, 0.0 BB%, 58.3% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 22 TBF, 36.4 K%, 4.5 BB%, 53.8% GB%
Justin Steele - 18 TBF, 27.8 K%, 5.6 BB%, 58.3% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 22 TBF, 45.5 K%, 0.0 BB%, 58.3% GB%
Kyle Wright - 21 TBF, 28.6 K%, 4.8 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Matt Brash - 21 TBF, 28.6 K%, 4.8 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Michael Lorenzen - 20 TBF, 35.0 K%, 0.0 BB%, 69.2% GB%
Paul Blackburn - 19 TBF, 36.8 K%, 5.3 BB%, 54.5% GB%
Taylor Hearn - 21 TBF, 28.6 K%, 4.8 BB%, 61.5% GB%
Tylor Megill - 36 TBF, 30.6 K%, 0.0 BB%, 56.0% GB%
Anthony Rizzo (NYY) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Pete Alonso (NYM) 5 PA, 12 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Tim Anderson (CWS) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 3 Barrels, 3 HR
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 4.0 PA - 63.25 JA Points
2. Max Muncy - 5.0 PA - 43.25 JA Points
3. Pete Alonso - 5.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
4. Tim Anderson - 4.0 PA - 35.75 JA Points
5. Eduardo Escobar - 5.0 PA - 31.75 JA Points
6. Enrique Hernandez - 6.0 PA - 31.5 JA Points
7. Spencer Torkelson - 4.0 PA - 31.0 JA Points
8. Anthony Rizzo - 5.0 PA - 30.5 JA Points
9. Christian Walker - 5.0 PA - 29.5 JA Points
10. Jose Ramirez - 5.0 PA - 29.5 JA Points
1. Andrew Vaughn (CWS) - 15.0 PA - 169.33 JA Points
2. Nolan Arenado (STL) - 17.0 PA - 153.53 JA Points
3. Owen Miller (CLE) - 22.0 PA - 138.18 JA Points
4. Elias Diaz (COL) - 17.0 PA - 132.94 JA Points
5. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 16.0 PA - 128.75 JA Points
6. Tim Anderson (CWS) - 13.0 PA - 126.92 JA Points
7. Anthony Santander (BAL) - 23.0 PA - 125.65 JA Points
8. Seiya Suzuki (CHC) - 21.0 PA - 125.24 JA Points
9. Luis Robert (CWS) - 21.0 PA - 124.76 JA Points
10. Steven Kwan (CLE) - 29.0 PA - 122.41 JA Points
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 114.4mph - home_run
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 114.0mph - single
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 112.0mph - foul
Eric Haase (DET) - 112.0mph - foul
Joey Gallo (NYY) - 111.9mph - field_out
Luis Robert (CWS) - 111.6mph - home_run
Eloy Jimenez (CWS) - 111.4mph - home_run
Rowdy Tellez (MIL) - 111.3mph - field_out
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 110.9mph - double
Enrique Hernandez (BOS) - 110.6mph - double
Joey Gallo - 21 PA, 10 BIP, 4 Brls, 40.0 Brl%
Byron Buxton - 25 PA, 13 BIP, 5 Brls, 38.5 Brl%
Seiya Suzuki - 21 PA, 11 BIP, 4 Brls, 36.4 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 22 PA, 16 BIP, 5 Brls, 31.2 Brl%
Bobby Dalbec - 22 PA, 11 BIP, 3 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 32 PA, 22 BIP, 6 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 24 PA, 19 BIP, 5 Brls, 26.3 Brl%
Salvador Perez - 21 PA, 16 BIP, 4 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Chad Pinder - 23 PA, 12 BIP, 3 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 26 PA, 16 BIP, 4 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Steven Kwan - 29 PA, 49 Swings, 95.9 Cont%
Jake Cronenworth - 29 PA, 45 Swings, 91.1 Cont%
Austin Nola - 22 PA, 33 Swings, 90.9 Cont%
Owen Miller - 22 PA, 53 Swings, 90.6 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 28 PA, 51 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Mitch Garver - 20 PA, 40 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Michael Brantley - 22 PA, 29 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 25 PA, 46 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Seiya Suzuki - 21 PA, 27 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Starling Marte - 28 PA, 44 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 24 PA, 8.3 K%, 15.0 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 26 PA, 15.4 K%, 25.0 Brl%
Austin Riley - 31 PA, 16.1 K%, 15.8 Brl%
D.J. LeMahieu - 21 PA, 19.0 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Enrique Hernandez - 30 PA, 20.0 K%, 15.0 Brl%
Gavin Lux - 20 PA, 15.0 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Javier Baez - 20 PA, 20.0 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Ji-Man Choi - 21 PA, 19.0 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Jose Abreu - 21 PA, 19.0 K%, 21.4 Brl%
Jose Ramirez - 28 PA, 7.1 K%, 17.4 Brl%
Jurickson Profar - 21 PA, 14.3 K%, 21.4 Brl%
Luis Robert - 21 PA, 4.8 K%, 21.1 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 30 PA, 6.7 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Matt Olson - 31 PA, 19.4 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Max Muncy - 23 PA, 13.0 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Nelson Cruz - 26 PA, 19.2 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Rafael Devers - 26 PA, 19.2 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Salvador Perez - 21 PA, 19.0 K%, 25.0 Brl%
Tyler Stephenson - 21 PA, 14.3 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 24 PA, 16.7 K%, 26.3 Brl%
