MLB Daily Notes: Thursday, August 11
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
I had a bunch of branches and sticks and stuff around my house so I decided to pretend like it was fall and have a fire in my SOLO STOVE. A solo stove is something prissy boys buy when they want to pretend like they’re manly men who know how to do fire.
I took this DOPE ASS picture:
If you look closely you can see some of my crotch there. Sick pic tho right? Right?
I drank TWO of them bad boys, burned tons of stuff, and listened to a John MacArthur sermon because I’m #ChristianAF. I am pretty sure it’s safe to say I’m the only guy to pound some two-hearted ale while listening to Johnny Mac in 2022 - but it was glorious.
You’re probably thinking “man, how can this guy claim to be a Christian but still use slight profanity and talk about crotch on his blog?” I only make it look this easy, ladies!
But in all seriousness, this Christianity business is for real - and it’s made my life so so good - so if you ever any questions or interest in that - DM me, I’d be happy to talk to you about it. I think the God question is a pretty important one for us all to all have ideas/beliefs about - so if you want to hear more of mine let me know - but I’m not going to push it on anybody.
If they ever start minor league DFS, we’re going to get so rich. I’ve added [hypothetical] DraftKings points to the MLB/MiLB hitter dash, and I did so just so we could see the 73-burger that this Chandler Redmond dude dropped for the Cardinals’ AA affiliate. He went 5/6 with 4 homers and 11 RBI.
Kid is hitting .241/.325/.490 with 17 homers this year. He’s not in the Cardinals’ top 30 prospects, so this will likely be the last time we ever heard of him. But he’ll forever be here, in this blog post - the Internet is forever.
While we’re on the subject of minor league DraftKings scoring, here are the DRAFTKINGS POINTS PER PLATE APPEARANCE leaders for all levels
Since stolen bases are so common in the minors, if we ever did play DraftKings with minor leaguers - we would seemingly just want to cram in the fast guys. Esteury Ruiz has freaking 64 steals this year, which is good for 320 DraftKings points just right there. I’d assume they’d change the scoring system to make steals worth fewer points.
Shane McClanahan, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodon, and BRANDON PFAADT.
The D’Backs AA/AAA pitcher has an elite 26.9% K-BB% this year across 117 innings - FOURTH BEST IN PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL PICK HIM UP IN DYNASTY LEAGUES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
These dashboards are just too much fun to not share far and wide, so I’ve made them free for all:
Minor League Hitting Stats Dashboard
Minor League Pitching Stats Dashboard
Check them out, it has everything for all levels of baseball, and you can do date ranges and stuff. It’s a really cool tool, although not all that useful.
I swear in 2023 I’m locking everything down though and forcing you all to give me the darn $7 per month.
Jeffrey Springs was the man yesterday, winning us out K prop. He did so after throwing 26 pitches in the first inning without getting a strikeout. He messed around and struck out eight Brewers with his next 59 pitches - an incredible pace.
That has me curious as to which pitchers have been the most efficient at getting strikeouts. We can check that by dividing strikeouts into pitches thrown. What you’ll see here is “how many pitches on average it takes a pitcher to get a strikeout”
Shohei Ohtani 11.236
Spencer Strider 11.355
Shane McClanahan 11.745
Max Scherzer 11.983
Gerrit Cole 12.635
Corbin Burnes 12.743
Dylan Cease 12.807
Carlos Rodon 13.180
Cristian Javier 13.348
Aaron Nola 13.554
The bottom five:
Dakota Hudson 30.625
Zack Greinke 30.365
Antonio Senzatela 27.980
Devin Smeltzer 27.189
Marco Gonzales 27.153
Nestor Cortes was actually the JA pitcher of the day with a 37.6% CSW%, a 19.4% SwStr%, a 47.6% K%, and a 4.8% BB%. He went six innings giving up three runs on three hits (there’s some bad luck), striking out ten, and walking one.
Cortes was one of those pitchers that came out of the gates really great this year and people jumped on to get a very cheap/free ace-level pitcher. He has maintained a really nice stat line with a 2.72 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, a 26.8% K%, and a 6.2% BB%. You have profited greatly from getting your hands on him early this year. Adding these breakout pitchers in the first few weeks of April is one of the most important things you can do in fantasy baseball - every single year there are a handful of pitchers that come “out of nowhere” to be really, really useful fantasy starters - and whoever grabs them first gets a massive boost.
Justin Steele was also sick with nine punchies over six innings. He was another interesting April guy, but hasn’t really done much for fantasy teams this year - and doesn’t look particularly good under the hood with a 26.8% CSW% and a 10.7% SwStr% - a 23.7% K and a 9.6% BB%. I advised against him early on because he’s so dependent on a crappy fastball, and that has stayed true:
I don’t think you can throw a 26.5% CSW% pitch 57% of the time and be any good for any significant period of time. He prob needs to throw that slideboy some more or tune up the sinkdaddy.
JP Sears was interesting to me yesterday as the Athletics called him up after getting him in the Frankie Montas trade. He had an elite 33.3% K% and 3.9% BB% in AAA this year. That’s the kind of pitching prospect I’ll believe in - but he fell pretty flat with a horrid 6.9% SwStr% and 22.2% CSW%. He’s made three starts in the bigs now and has a decent 29.8% CSW% up here but just 17.6% K% and a 4.9% BB% - so he’s probably not ready for the show, but I’ll keep an eye on him - I’m interested in anybody who can go for a 25%+ K-BB% at any level.
Kyle Wright lost a bunch of velocity yesterday! Down to 92.8 on both the four-seamer and the sinker
Still managed a decent 13.0% SwStr% and a quality start - but not a good sign for the young righty there if the velocity is really down that much moving forward.
Freaking LARS NOOTBAAR went double-barrel yesterday and continues to plant his noot all over these daily notes.
He has a .311/.414/.511 slash line with a dinger and a 17.1% Brl% since the all-star break. His .413 xwOBA is 10th-best in the league since the break, so he’ll continue to get playing time and you might want to think about an add there if you need an outfielder. I went to pick him up in the RotoBaller league, but of course, he’s already owned (Eric Samulski…). I was first in that league for a while but since June I’ve just plummeted and I’m in 8th place. I’m much better at talking about fantasy leagues than winning them, it turns out.
Alright well that’s more words than I’ve written here in quite some time, here we go with the report:
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jeffrey Springs (TB): 18.8 SwStr%, 38.8 CSW%
2. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 19.4 SwStr%, 37.6 CSW%
3. Madison Bumgarner (ARI): 10.6 SwStr%, 32.7 CSW%
4. T.J. Zeuch (CIN): 9.9 SwStr%, 30.8 CSW%
5. Sean Manaea (SD): 13.9 SwStr%, 30.4 CSW%
6. Kyle Wright (ATL): 13.0 SwStr%, 29.9 CSW%
7. Justin Steele (CHC): 17.0 SwStr%, 29.8 CSW%
8. Taijuan Walker (NYM): 13.2 SwStr%, 29.7 CSW%
9. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 11.0 SwStr%, 29.7 CSW%
10. Jakob Junis (SF): 6.6 SwStr%, 29.5 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Nestor Cortes - 6.0 IP - 79.75 JA Points
2. Justin Steele - 6.0 IP - 68.5 JA Points
3. Jeffrey Springs - 5.0 IP - 60.75 JA Points
4. Justin Verlander - 6.0 IP - 58.0 JA Points
5. Josiah Gray - 6.33 IP - 48.0 JA Points
6. Touki Toussaint - 4.67 IP - 43.25 JA Points
7. Jose Quintana - 6.0 IP - 42.0 JA Points
8. Kyle Wright - 6.0 IP - 40.75 JA Points
9. Sean Manaea - 5.0 IP - 38.5 JA Points
10. Aaron Civale - 4.0 IP - 37.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 13 GS - 56.81 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 22 GS - 54.39 JA Points
3. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 19 GS - 52.76 JA Points
4. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 21 GS - 52.71 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 22 GS - 52.14 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 23 GS - 49.02 JA Points
7. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 15 GS - 48.45 JA Points
8. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 22 GS - 47.72 JA Points
9. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 17 GS - 44.97 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 17 GS - 44.41 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Noah Syndergaard's SL velo (37 pitches) UP 3.6mph to 87.0
Glenn Otto's SL velo (21 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 83.2
Sean Manaea's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 83.7
Glenn Otto's CU velo (18 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 82.6
Justin Steele's SL velo (34 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 83.3
Ryan Pepiot's CH velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 85.3
JP Sears's SL velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 78.8
Kyle Wright's SI velo (26 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 92.5
Kyle Wright's FF velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 92.8
Mitch Keller's SL velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 82.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Civale's FC usage (46.8%) up 13.1 points
Austin Gomber's CH usage (33.9%) up 17.3 points
Jakob Junis's SI usage (42.6%) up 13.5 points
Jakob Junis's FC usage (13.1%) up 10.5 points
Johnny Cueto's FF usage (25.0%) up 10.9 points
Josiah Gray's SL usage (43.8%) up 15.1 points
Kris Bubic's FF usage (61.6%) up 10.1 points
Kyle Freeland's SI usage (40.0%) up 20.4 points
Kyle Wright's SI usage (33.8%) up 13.5 points
Nestor Cortes's FF usage (52.7%) up 11.1 points
Nestor Cortes's SL usage (34.4%) up 16.8 points
Noah Syndergaard's SL usage (38.9%) up 19.3 points
Robbie Ray's SI usage (42.6%) up 24.7 points
Ryan Pepiot's SL usage (27.4%) up 11.2 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 101 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 75 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 103 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Brady Singer - 103 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 90 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Aaron Ashby - 73 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Chris Bassitt - 114 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Alex Cobb - 98 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 34.3% K%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 33.3% K%
Carlos Rodon - 91 TBF, 33.0% K%
Corbin Burnes - 94 TBF, 33.0% K%
Alex Cobb - 98 TBF, 32.7% K%
Blake Snell - 89 TBF, 32.6% K%
Braxton Garrett - 90 TBF, 32.2% K%
Justin Steele - 87 TBF, 31.0% K%
Yu Darvish - 104 TBF, 30.8% K%
Gerrit Cole - 101 TBF, 30.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 91 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Braxton Garrett - 90 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 101 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 89 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 104 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 95 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Brady Singer - 103 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 91 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 83 TBF, 70.2% GB%
Antonio Senzatela - 101 TBF, 61.5% GB%
Logan Webb - 105 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 77 TBF, 60.4% GB%
Zac Gallen - 92 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 114 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Kyle Wright - 103 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 98 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Max Fried - 79 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Alex Cobb - 98 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 28.1 K%, 7.3 BB%, 46.6% GB%
George Kirby - 60 TBF, 31.7 K%, 3.3 BB%, 45.9% GB%
Justin Steele - 87 TBF, 31.0 K%, 6.9 BB%, 48.1% GB%
Shane Bieber - 103 TBF, 27.2 K%, 3.9 BB%, 52.1% GB%
Zac Gallen - 92 TBF, 27.2 K%, 6.5 BB%, 60.0% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Brady Singer - +2.6% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Triston McKenzie - +3.3% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Joe Ryan - +2.5% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +3.5% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Merrill Kelly - +3.6% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.0% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
Andre Pallante - +2.3% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Erasmo Ramirez - +3.7% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Lars Nootbaar (STL) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Paul DeJong (STL) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Tyler Naquin (NYM) 4 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Albert Pujols - 5.0 PA - 65.0 JA Points
2. MJ Melendez - 5.0 PA - 65.0 JA Points
3. JJ Bleday - 4.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
4. Paul DeJong - 5.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
5. Aaron Judge - 4.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
6. Luis Arraez - 5.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
7. Nolan Arenado - 5.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
8. Joey Meneses - 4.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
9. J.D. Davis - 5.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
10. Tyler Naquin - 4.0 PA - 38.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 390.0 PA - 151.28 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 471.0 PA - 145.48 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (SD) - 467.0 PA - 132.16 JA Points
4. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 368.0 PA - 115.54 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 486.0 PA - 114.07 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 451.0 PA - 108.29 JA Points
7. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
8. D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) - 447.0 PA - 103.53 JA Points
9. Adley Rutschman (BAL) - 257.0 PA - 100.23 JA Points
10. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 472.0 PA - 97.71 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 114.6mph - home_run
Josh Bell (SD) - 112.6mph - nan
Jose Abreu (CWS) - 111.6mph - single
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 111.5mph - single
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 111.2mph - nan
Albert Pujols (STL) - 110.5mph - nan
Matt Olson (ATL) - 110.5mph - single
Nate Lowe (TEX) - 110.4mph - nan
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 110.4mph - single
Jarren Duran (BOS) - 110.4mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 88 PA, 50 BIP, 18 Brls, 36.0 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 78 PA, 47 BIP, 13 Brls, 27.7 Brl%
Austin Riley - 78 PA, 55 BIP, 14 Brls, 25.5 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 70 PA, 33 BIP, 8 Brls, 24.2 Brl%
Max Muncy - 69 PA, 42 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.8 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 77 PA, 47 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.3 Brl%
Bobby Dalbec - 55 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 48 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 69 PA, 54 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.4 Brl%
Seth Brown - 56 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 88 PA, 0.593 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 78 PA, 0.462 xwOBA
Austin Riley - 78 PA, 0.453 xwOBA
Seth Brown - 56 PA, 0.451 xwOBA
Eloy Jimenez - 69 PA, 0.428 xwOBA
Trayce Thompson - 52 PA, 0.424 xwOBA
Pete Alonso - 78 PA, 0.422 xwOBA
Eric Hosmer - 48 PA, 0.417 xwOBA
Lars Nootbaar - 58 PA, 0.413 xwOBA
J.T. Realmuto - 60 PA, 0.411 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Bryson Stott - 65 PA, 118 Swings, 94.9 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 87 PA, 140 Swings, 92.1 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 63 PA, 124 Swings, 91.9 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 79 PA, 143 Swings, 91.6 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 74 PA, 120 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Myles Straw - 71 PA, 105 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 96 PA, 165 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 68 PA, 117 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 56 PA, 98 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 57 PA, 103 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Anthony Rizzo - 58 PA, 13.8 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 69 PA, 15.9 K%, 20.4 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 60 PA, 16.7 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Lars Nootbaar - 58 PA, 12.1 K%, 17.1 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 61 PA, 19.7 K%, 17.5 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 78 PA, 14.1 K%, 15.0 Brl%
Seth Brown - 56 PA, 16.1 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 67 PA, 17.9 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
MJ Melendez - +6.1% Contact%, +7.7 mph exit velo, -7.4 Chase%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - +16.9% Contact%, +3.8 mph exit velo, -7.5 Chase%
Tyler O'Neill - +8.1% Contact%, +3.7 mph exit velo, -4.5 Chase%
Matt Chapman - +3.6% Contact%, +5.3 mph exit velo, -3.0 Chase%
Andrew McCutchen - +5.7% Contact%, +6.1 mph exit velo, -8.7 Chase%
Cody Bellinger - +6.2% Contact%, +3.8 mph exit velo, -8.3 Chase%
Mitch Haniger - +7.3% Contact%, +4.8 mph exit velo, -13.8 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Juan Soto - 0.457 xwOBA, 11.8% Brl%, 79.0% Contact%, 14.9% Chase%, 10.9% K%
Yordan Alvarez - 0.445 xwOBA, 24.3% Brl%, 78.6% Contact%, 22.3% Chase%, 22.0% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Mark Canha - 34.7% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.914 Cold Rating
Ezequiel Duran - 33.0% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.898 Cold Rating
Eugenio Suarez - 35.8% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.896 Cold Rating
Ramon Urias - 34.5% Whiff%, 68.8% Weak%, 0.862 Cold Rating
Ian Happ - 33.6% Whiff%, 69.0% Weak%, 0.861 Cold Rating
Jonathan Schoop - 33.3% Whiff%, 69.2% Weak%, 0.859 Cold Rating
Marcell Ozuna - 30.6% Whiff%, 72.4% Weak%, 0.858 Cold Rating
Leody Taveras - 41.3% Whiff%, 65.6% Weak%, 0.844 Cold Rating
Hunter Dozier - 34.7% Whiff%, 67.6% Weak%, 0.843 Cold Rating
Lewin Diaz - 29.7% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.842 Cold Rating
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