MLB Daily Notes: Thursday, July 14
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
I’ll be joining the Pallazzo Pals Podcast at 2:00 eastern today, there is a live stream on YouTube and then it hits the podcast apps later. Live stream location is below, we’ll be talking about more than just baseball too - so that’s exciting. Should be a fun time with the man Michael Govier!
We have a few pitchers to note today. Cristian Javier had a wild start with 10 strikeouts and three walks. He put up 19 whiffs and didn’t give up a home run, but was just so wildly inefficient that he couldn’t get out of the fifth inning.
From the SP Roundup sheet:
He was completely overshadowed by the great Shohei Ohtani who went for 24 whiffs as he struck out a dozen Astros in six innings on four hits and two walks. Unfortunately, he gave up an earned run, ending his streak of four straight outings without an earned run. He has struck out 13, 11, 10, and 12 batters over his last four starts. He very well might be the best pitcher in the league.
From the whiffs by pitch by start sheet:
Jon Gray may have had the best start of the night as he struck out nine Athletics in seven innings while giving up just one hit and no runs. Since June 1st, he’s done this:
32.4% CSW%
13.9% SwStr%
30.6% K%
6.3% BB%
.205 AVG
.337 SLG
37 PA/HR
5.1% Brl
41.3% GB%
Only eight pitchers have a better K-BB% since June 21st (Woodruff, McClanahan, Strider, Javier, Ohtani, Morton, Cole, Rodon). He has taken advantage of some good matchups in this time, but it’s starting to look like he's a top 25 SP moving forward.
Charlie Morton struggled giving up a 33.3% Brl% and just an 8.4% SwStr%. That shouldn’t be super concerning given what he’s done recently, but it might be fair to say that he’s just not going to be consistently dominant down the stretch. He is very reliant on the curveball, which he can lose from time to time, so I don’t know - if you can get an ace or a stud hitter in return for Morton, I’d do it.
Would I take Jon Gray for Charlie Morton? Ummm… no, but almost.
On the hitting side, Max Muncy walked four times and then hit a sacrifice fly, so he didn’t register a single at-bat in five trips to the plate. Pretty impressive.
Jake Cronenworth really likes Coors Field. He has three barrels in three games there this week, prior to this series he had just 13 barrels in 395 plate appearances. I would seriously try to trade that guy right now.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa had a big day and is now on the hot hitter tracker. He’s hit .343/.361/.429 this month with a 93.8% contact rate and a decent .344 xwOBA. Still no power in the bat, and an awful high ground-ball rate of 62.5% - so nothing to do here but I had to say it!
Alex Bregman and Wilmer Flores have joined the super mega hot hitters list. Bregman is in a nice spot against Detmers tonight, but Flores has to face Corbin Burnes - so his flame will probably be put out.
So I guess that’s it! On with the show.
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 22.9 SwStr%, 42.9 CSW%
2. Ross Stripling (TOR): 12.3 SwStr%, 38.3 CSW%
3. Shane McClanahan (TB): 21.2 SwStr%, 37.6 CSW%
4. Jon Gray (TEX): 16.8 SwStr%, 35.8 CSW%
5. JT Brubaker (PIT): 15.2 SwStr%, 34.3 CSW%
6. Cristian Javier (HOU): 20.7 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
7. Joe Musgrove (SD): 13.6 SwStr%, 31.8 CSW%
8. Josiah Gray (WSH): 12.4 SwStr%, 30.9 CSW%
9. Mike Minor (CIN): 6.6 SwStr%, 30.8 CSW%
10. Chris Bassitt (NYM): 17.2 SwStr%, 30.3 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Shohei Ohtani - 6.0 IP - 109.75 JA Points
2. Jon Gray - 7.0 IP - 85.25 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan - 6.0 IP - 72.75 JA Points
4. Cristian Javier - 3.67 IP - 69.0 JA Points
5. JT Brubaker - 7.0 IP - 64.0 JA Points
6. Ross Stripling - 7.0 IP - 52.25 JA Points
7. Chris Bassitt - 5.67 IP - 47.75 JA Points
8. Tarik Skubal - 6.0 IP - 46.5 JA Points
9. Tony Gonsolin - 5.0 IP - 44.25 JA Points
10. Aaron Ashby - 4.33 IP - 41.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 9 GS - 56.7 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 18 GS - 55.14 JA Points
3. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 17 GS - 54.88 JA Points
4. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 18 GS - 53.66 JA Points
5. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 15 GS - 53.23 JA Points
6. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 12 GS - 51.87 JA Points
7. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 10 GS - 48.95 JA Points
8. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 13 GS - 47.58 JA Points
9. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 17 GS - 46.94 JA Points
10. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 18 GS - 46.42 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Mike Minor's SL velo (25 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 86.7
Shohei Ohtani's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 79.9
Cristian Javier's SL velo (18 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 81.3
Joe Ryan's SL velo (12 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 82.8
Chris Bassitt's CH velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 84.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Chad Kuhl's SI usage (50.5%) up 11.4 points
Charlie Morton's FC usage (27.1%) up 16.9 points
Cristian Javier's CU usage (17.4%) up 10.7 points
JT Brubaker's SI usage (52.5%) up 10.2 points
Joe Ryan's CH usage (21.8%) up 10.0 points
Jon Gray's SL usage (48.4%) up 14.0 points
Josiah Gray's CU usage (36.1%) up 11.2 points
Justin Steele's SL usage (42.4%) up 14.5 points
Shohei Ohtani's SL usage (48.6%) up 16.5 points
Zack Wheeler's SI usage (38.5%) up 22.5 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 74 TBF, 39.9% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 92 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 77 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 98 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 77 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Cristian Javier - 86 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Blake Snell - 72 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 76 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 87 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Yu Darvish - 79 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cristian Javier - 86 TBF, 51.2% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 TBF, 44.6% K%
Spencer Strider - 87 TBF, 43.7% K%
David Peterson - 88 TBF, 38.6% K%
Blake Snell - 72 TBF, 37.5% K%
Shane McClanahan - 92 TBF, 37.0% K%
Dylan Cease - 98 TBF, 34.7% K%
Robbie Ray - 96 TBF, 33.3% K%
Patrick Sandoval - 76 TBF, 32.9% K%
Josiah Gray - 101 TBF, 32.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cristian Javier - 86 TBF, 43.0% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 87 TBF, 37.9% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 TBF, 36.5% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 92 TBF, 33.7% K-BB%
David Peterson - 88 TBF, 29.5% K-BB%
Jon Gray - 99 TBF, 28.3% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 79 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Josiah Gray - 101 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 79 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 109 TBF, 67.6% GB%
Alex Cobb - 92 TBF, 65.2% GB%
Andre Pallante - 99 TBF, 64.2% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 115 TBF, 63.7% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 100 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Brad Keller - 96 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Justin Steele - 100 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Mitch Keller - 95 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Trevor Rogers - 85 TBF, 54.7% GB%
Logan Webb - 104 TBF, 54.7% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Clayton Kershaw - 103 TBF, 28.2 K%, 5.8 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Jon Gray - 99 TBF, 32.3 K%, 4.0 BB%, 47.6% GB%
Luis Castillo - 79 TBF, 31.6 K%, 6.3 BB%, 52.1% GB%
Max Castillo - 54 TBF, 31.5 K%, 5.6 BB%, 55.9% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 92 TBF, 37.0 K%, 3.3 BB%, 54.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Josiah Gray - +2.6% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Jon Gray - +2.0% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Shane McClanahan - +3.6% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.5% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Cristian Javier - +5.5% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Carlos Rodon - +3.1% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Patrick Sandoval - +2.0% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +2.4% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Brandon Woodruff - +7.6% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Bryse Wilson - +5.1% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Max Scherzer - +6.9% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Jake Cronenworth (SD) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jesse Winker (SEA) 8 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Juan Soto (WSH) 8 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Nolan Arenado (STL) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Max Muncy - 5.0 PA - 71.0 JA Points
2. Jake Cronenworth - 5.0 PA - 69.0 JA Points
3. Nolan Arenado - 4.0 PA - 61.0 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman - 5.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
5. Juan Soto - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
6. Jose Iglesias - 5.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
7. Joc Pederson - 3.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
8. Nomar Mazara - 5.0 PA - 38.0 JA Points
9. Yoan Moncada - 4.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
10. Brandon Belt - 4.0 PA - 36.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 312.0 PA - 148.85 JA Points
2. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 288.0 PA - 124.44 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (WSH) - 372.0 PA - 124.41 JA Points
4. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 375.0 PA - 113.17 JA Points
5. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 365.0 PA - 112.22 JA Points
6. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 329.0 PA - 109.91 JA Points
7. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 388.0 PA - 107.32 JA Points
8. Will Smith (LAD) - 305.0 PA - 106.89 JA Points
9. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
10. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 328.0 PA - 103.17 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 115.8mph - single
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 114.9mph - foul
Juan Soto (WSH) - 112.3mph - home_run
Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) - 112.2mph - field_out
C.J. Cron (COL) - 111.9mph - single
Luis Robert (CWS) - 111.6mph - single
Lars Nootbaar (STL) - 111.5mph - single
Eugenio Suarez (SEA) - 111.4mph - home_run
Nate Lowe (TEX) - 111.3mph - single
Max Muncy (LAD) - 111.2mph - foul
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Yordan Alvarez - 58 PA, 32 BIP, 9 Brls, 28.1 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 80 PA, 50 BIP, 14 Brls, 28.0 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 75 PA, 55 BIP, 13 Brls, 23.6 Brl%
Darick Hall - 54 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 69 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Luke Voit - 62 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Aaron Hicks - 58 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Christopher Morel - 76 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 77 PA, 44 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Bryan De La Cruz - 56 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 85 PA, 129 Swings, 95.3 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 78 PA, 114 Swings, 93.0 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 57 PA, 82 Swings, 92.7 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 64 PA, 115 Swings, 92.2 Cont%
Alex Verdugo - 80 PA, 130 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 66 PA, 89 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 65 PA, 107 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Wander Franco - 57 PA, 103 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Nicky Lopez - 61 PA, 107 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Myles Straw - 71 PA, 120 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Carlos Santana - 67 PA, 19.4 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Francisco Lindor - 78 PA, 17.9 K%, 15.5 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 58 PA, 17.2 K%, 16.3 Brl%
Juan Soto - 67 PA, 11.9 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 75 PA, 18.7 K%, 23.6 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 70 PA, 15.7 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Randal Grichuk - +18.8% Contact%, +5.8 mph exit velo, -13.0 Chase%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - +10.8% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -9.6 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Alex Bregman - 0.409 xwOBA, 10.0% Brl%, 80.5% Contact%, 14.3% Chase%, 14.5% K%
George Springer - 0.419 xwOBA, 14.3% Brl%, 75.7% Contact%, 25.0% Chase%, 12.5% K%
Marcell Ozuna - 0.388 xwOBA, 17.1% Brl%, 79.4% Contact%, 23.0% Chase%, 19.3% K%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 0.41 xwOBA, 12.2% Brl%, 89.4% Contact%, 19.3% Chase%, 16.1% K%
Wilmer Flores - 0.424 xwOBA, 12.5% Brl%, 78.3% Contact%, 23.7% Chase%, 16.0% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Patrick Wisdom - 39.3% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.935 Cold Rating
Manny Machado - 37.6% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.921 Cold Rating
Willson Contreras - 39.8% Whiff%, 68.0% Weak%, 0.891 Cold Rating
Orlando Arcia - 33.3% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.891 Cold Rating
Jorge Alfaro - 37.5% Whiff%, 68.4% Weak%, 0.879 Cold Rating
Michael A. Taylor - 30.0% Whiff%, 78.3% Weak%, 0.873 Cold Rating
Brian Anderson - 34.1% Whiff%, 69.2% Weak%, 0.861 Cold Rating
Eugenio Suarez - 36.1% Whiff%, 67.9% Weak%, 0.853 Cold Rating
Jack Suwinski - 28.8% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.828 Cold Rating
Nick Castellanos - 34.9% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.828 Cold Rating
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