MLB Daily Notes: Thursday, July 28
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
Producer Lee is out on the left coast, about to ride his bike really far (516 miles). He’s raising money for ALS research while he does it, so you should all donate to him. He’s made the fundraiser goal just $1,500 - and he’s already halfway there. If a bunch of you donated a few bucks to him that would be great for two reasons
It might help them cure ALS without you having to get a bucket of ice water dumped on you
It would make me look very powerful
Here’s Lee’s Instagram for pictures/videos/updates
If you don’t listen to the podcast, Lee has been one of my best friends since we met when we were 14 years old, we play in the same fantasy baseball league, were in each other’s weddings - the whole nine yards. Unlike me who is happiest in my basement jamming numbers into a computer - Lee is real artsy fartsy and likes to travel and stuff - ONE OF THOSE GUYS. I’ve saved his life many, many times, and he owes me a great deal - and that can only be repaid by him having a son and naming him JonPGH. But anyways, donate some money to the fundraiser.
I’m going to the South Bend Cubs game tonight, so that’ll be fun. It’s Thirsty Thursday there ($2 domestics!), and we’re even leaving the kids at home (all by themselves, baptism by fire). So your boy is going to be throwing up some sick pictures of single-A baseball players tonight acting like I’m a real prospect guy. In reality, I don’t know a single player playing tonight, but maybe I can sneak into the press box before the game and steal a media guide.
I really should develop a Tableau dashboard for the minor leagues, right? Why haven’t I done that? What an opportunity that would be… a one-stop shop for all minor league data. That hardly even exists right now.
I’m actually thinking about starting a whole fresh clean website to host tableau dashies for every sport and house the notes and stuff there. I could then have like different tiers of membership where you can pay me a little bit or a lot… and I could get insanely rich and solve ALS by myself, how hard could it be?
Jon Gray gave up some runs in the seventh, but once again pitched amazingly. He’s an ace right now, I think. Since June 1st, he’s the JA model’s #13 SP with a 29.7%-7.3% K-BB%, a 32.5% CSW, and an elite 14.0% SwStr%.
He’s been mostly a two-pitch pitcher, which gives me the change to show off the enhancement to the Arsenals tab on the Dashboard. I finally figured out how to get the percentages in there with the raw pitch counts
Why did it take me so long? I don’t know, it’s a bit embarrassing. As the world’s most renowned Master of Science™, I should have done much better than this. I finally figured out the right Tableau trick that involved taking quick calculation using percent of total but then selecting compute using Pitch Name:
This discovered menu just opened the doors to a whole new world of Tableau for me, and it will come into play heavily on the football dashboard where we get target shares and air yard shares and all of that kinda stuff.
Anyways, Gray throws a ton of fastballs and sliders. The slider is one of the game’s best pitches, it seems, and it’s certainly been aided by getting out of that thin Colorado air.
Braxton Garrett had a horrifying first inning but then bounced back to get through five innings and put up the fourth-highest CSW% of the night. You’d have to still say it was a discouraging start for him, but good to see him able to overcome those early issues.
Nathan Eovaldi’s velocity remained down, thank God, because I had called it out before the game and had put some money down on Cleveland because of it.
The tweet did quite well, so I’m sure plenty of people put some money up against Eovaldi because of me - and usually, when that happens we lose tragically, so it was nice to get a win on that one. Eovaldi is not himself, you should not be starting him right now. He clearly knows his fastball isn’t working well, so he threw a bunch f splitters - which didn’t work great:
He has a deep enough arsenal to navigate a worsened fastball, but it’s a very thin line we’re walking on.
Andrew Heaney returned and threw 71 pitches, 54 of which were fastballs. The numbers were good (16.7% SwStr% on the fastball, 23.5% on the slider), so it’s good to see him get back and get through four innings with some success (no runs, four strikeouts, three walks). We saw him pitching amazingly in early April before the injury stuff began, so the ceiling is huge for him if he’s truly healthy and back to it now - he could be a great fantasy asset down the stretch. It is funny that he’s literally a two-pitch pitcher, like he hasn’t thrown anything other than a four-seamer and a slider this year, albeit in just four starts. Interesting stuff.
Tarik Skubal gets the “yikes” award with his 4.1% SwStr% on 98 pitches yesterday - yikes! Just three hits and no barrels or homers, but three walks. Seeing him get just four whiffs on 98 pitches is really alarming, but maybe I’m overreacting.
Bobby Dalbec and Rowdy Tellez rocked two dingers each yesterday, both had struggled mightily, but they earned the sharp up-turn on their rolling charts with those performances:
These two are both probably in the top 25 in the league in terms of raw power, so they’re capable of massive games and weeks. Their strikeout rates are wildly different (32.4% for Dalbec, 19.7% for Tellez), but you haven’t gotten much from them fantasy-wise over the last couple of months. Tellez is actually a magic formula qualifier now, and the xwOBA has been beating the wOBA recently - so maybe we’ll get some much better stuff from him to finish the year.
Okay, this has taken way too long, I’ve spent my whole morning on these notes - off we go:
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Adam Wainwright (STL): 15.2 SwStr%, 38.4 CSW%
2. Jon Gray (TEX): 15.2 SwStr%, 36.4 CSW%
3. Yu Darvish (SD): 15.1 SwStr%, 34.0 CSW%
4. Braxton Garrett (MIA): 14.9 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
5. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 16.7 SwStr%, 31.4 CSW%
6. Andrew Heaney (LAD): 18.3 SwStr%, 31.0 CSW%
7. Antonio Senzatela (COL): 14.3 SwStr%, 30.8 CSW%
8. Cristian Javier (HOU): 15.2 SwStr%, 30.4 CSW%
9. Max Scherzer (NYM): 14.1 SwStr%, 30.3 CSW%
10. Lucas Giolito (CWS): 11.5 SwStr%, 29.8 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Yu Darvish - 7.0 IP - 83.0 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes - 6.0 IP - 73.0 JA Points
3. Janson Junk - 5.0 IP - 59.5 JA Points
4. Jon Gray - 6.33 IP - 55.0 JA Points
5. Braxton Garrett - 4.67 IP - 54.5 JA Points
6. Adam Wainwright - 7.0 IP - 52.5 JA Points
7. Antonio Senzatela - 6.67 IP - 50.25 JA Points
8. Luis Castillo - 7.0 IP - 49.75 JA Points
9. Huascar Brazoban - 2.0 IP - 45.5 JA Points
10. Andrew Heaney - 4.0 IP - 40.75 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 11 GS - 55.25 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 20 GS - 54.82 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 19 GS - 54.7 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 16 GS - 53.22 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 20 GS - 52.34 JA Points
6. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 14 GS - 49.71 JA Points
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 20 GS - 47.83 JA Points
8. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 20 GS - 47.75 JA Points
9. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 13 GS - 47.75 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 15 GS - 45.68 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Antonio Senzatela's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 79.9
Janson Junk's SL velo (36 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 83.2
Jon Gray's FF velo (38 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 97.9
Andrew Heaney's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 83.6
Nathan Eovaldi's FF velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 94.7
Drew Rasmussen's FC velo (32 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 89.0
Nathan Eovaldi's FC velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 89.6
Nathan Eovaldi's CU velo (20 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 76.6
Tarik Skubal's SL velo (32 pitches) DOWN -2.8mph to 86.8
Zac Gallen's CH velo (12 pitches) DOWN -4.3mph to 82.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Andrew Heaney's FF usage (76.1%) up 17.8 points
Brad Keller's FF usage (46.7%) up 13.1 points
Braxton Garrett's SI usage (29.9%) up 10.3 points
Charlie Morton's FF usage (45.2%) up 12.2 points
Cole Irvin's FF usage (54.5%) up 20.3 points
Domingo German's CH usage (28.0%) up 10.8 points
Drew Rasmussen's CU usage (14.7%) up 11.7 points
Janson Junk's FF usage (51.4%) up 18.1 points
Kyle Gibson's CU usage (16.7%) up 11.0 points
Nathan Eovaldi's FS usage (30.5%) up 11.1 points
Tarik Skubal's SI usage (36.7%) up 16.5 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Kyle Wright - 82 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Max Scherzer - 105 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 104 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Aaron Ashby - 77 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 83 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 89 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Jon Gray - 100 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 97 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Yu Darvish - 109 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 83 TBF, 36.1% K%
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 35.3% K%
Justin Verlander - 77 TBF, 35.1% K%
Carlos Rodon - 104 TBF, 34.6% K%
Sandy Alcantara - 79 TBF, 32.9% K%
Braxton Garrett - 89 TBF, 32.6% K%
Max Scherzer - 105 TBF, 32.4% K%
Yu Darvish - 109 TBF, 32.1% K%
Jon Gray - 100 TBF, 30.0% K%
Dylan Cease - 97 TBF, 29.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Justin Verlander - 77 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 105 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 83 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Braxton Garrett - 89 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 109 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 83 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 104 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Sandy Alcantara - 79 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Jon Gray - 100 TBF, 23.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 87 TBF, 67.7% GB%
Logan Webb - 128 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 79 TBF, 56.5% GB%
Alex Cobb - 80 TBF, 55.9% GB%
Kyle Wright - 82 TBF, 54.8% GB%
Luis Garcia - 95 TBF, 54.5% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 85 TBF, 54.0% GB%
Johnny Cueto - 82 TBF, 52.9% GB%
Martin Perez - 77 TBF, 52.1% GB%
German Marquez - 78 TBF, 47.5% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 83 TBF, 28.9 K%, 2.4 BB%, 47.4% GB%
Alex Wood - 62 TBF, 33.9 K%, 4.8 BB%, 60.5% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 74 TBF, 29.7 K%, 2.7 BB%, 56.0% GB%
Robbie Ray - 65 TBF, 29.2 K%, 3.1 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 79 TBF, 32.9 K%, 7.6 BB%, 56.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Max Scherzer - +2.7% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Aaron Nola - +2.1% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Kyle Wright - +5.0% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Gerrit Cole - +2.3% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Chris Bassitt - +3.9% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Merrill Kelly - +2.5% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Jose Berrios - +4.2% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Dylan Cease - +2.9% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Mitch Keller - +3.9% CSW%, -7.6 BB%
Dean Kremer - +3.2% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Shohei Ohtani - +7.9% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.3% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Bobby Dalbec (BOS) 4 PA, 3 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
Gleyber Torres (NYY) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Luke Raley (TB) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Rowdy Tellez (MIL) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Rowdy Tellez - 5.0 PA - 65.0 JA Points
2. Bobby Dalbec - 4.0 PA - 59.0 JA Points
3. Brendan Rodgers - 5.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
4. Mookie Betts - 5.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
5. Christian Yelich - 5.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
6. Luis Urias - 4.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
7. Yordan Alvarez - 3.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
8. Ryan McMahon - 5.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
9. D.J. LeMahieu - 5.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
10. Gleyber Torres - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 334.0 PA - 156.05 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 416.0 PA - 128.08 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (WSH) - 416.0 PA - 120.96 JA Points
4. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 325.0 PA - 119.02 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 428.0 PA - 115.61 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 404.0 PA - 106.73 JA Points
7. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
8. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 419.0 PA - 103.1 JA Points
9. D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) - 389.0 PA - 102.83 JA Points
10. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 363.0 PA - 102.48 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 113.0mph - nan
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 112.3mph - double
Rowdy Tellez (MIL) - 111.8mph - home_run
Eduardo Escobar (NYM) - 111.5mph - double
Christian Yelich (MIL) - 111.4mph - single
Matt Chapman (TOR) - 111.3mph - single
Jonathan Schoop (DET) - 110.5mph - single
Jose Abreu (CWS) - 110.2mph - field_out
Bobby Dalbec (BOS) - 110.2mph - home_run
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 110.0mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 73 PA, 40 BIP, 12 Brls, 30.0 Brl%
Austin Riley - 74 PA, 54 BIP, 14 Brls, 25.9 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 43 PA, 28 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
J.D. Martinez - 49 PA, 33 BIP, 8 Brls, 24.2 Brl%
Bobby Dalbec - 51 PA, 25 BIP, 6 Brls, 24.0 Brl%
Brandon Belt - 50 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Ramon Laureano - 71 PA, 45 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Darick Hall - 53 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Nolan Jones - 56 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 48 PA, 33 BIP, 6 Brls, 18.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Freddie Freeman - 67 PA, 0.522 xwOBA
Austin Riley - 74 PA, 0.514 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 73 PA, 0.495 xwOBA
Alec Bohm - 44 PA, 0.477 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 70 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
Ketel Marte - 64 PA, 0.436 xwOBA
Carson Kelly - 46 PA, 0.432 xwOBA
Albert Pujols - 41 PA, 0.429 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 67 PA, 0.427 xwOBA
Kris Bryant - 60 PA, 0.424 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 81 PA, 127 Swings, 93.7 Cont%
Myles Straw - 60 PA, 92 Swings, 93.5 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 62 PA, 102 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 51 PA, 90 Swings, 91.1 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 57 PA, 105 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 76 PA, 137 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Alec Bohm - 44 PA, 85 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 61 PA, 106 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 68 PA, 132 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Joey Wendle - 64 PA, 122 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Hicks - 56 PA, 17.9 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Adley Rutschman - 57 PA, 17.5 K%, 14.7 Brl%
Albert Pujols - 41 PA, 9.8 K%, 14.7 Brl%
Carlos Santana - 59 PA, 15.3 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Corey Seager - 67 PA, 11.9 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Jorge Polanco - 56 PA, 17.9 K%, 15.2 Brl%
Ketel Marte - 64 PA, 9.4 K%, 16.3 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 62 PA, 17.7 K%, 15.2 Brl%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 69 PA, 18.8 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Anthony Rizzo - +4.7% Contact%, +4.9 mph exit velo, -10.7 Chase%
Austin Riley - +9.7% Contact%, +5.3 mph exit velo, -11.0 Chase%
Yordan Alvarez - +6.5% Contact%, +4.9 mph exit velo, -13.7 Chase%
Teoscar Hernandez - +3.3% Contact%, +3.2 mph exit velo, -9.8 Chase%
Pete Alonso - +10.1% Contact%, +6.7 mph exit velo, -9.2 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Josh Bell - 0.432 xwOBA, 10.3% Brl%, 81.2% Contact%, 14.3% Chase%, 13.2% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Trey Mancini - 34.2% Whiff%, 82.6% Weak%, 0.963 Cold Rating
Jake Meyers - 33.3% Whiff%, 78.9% Weak%, 0.937 Cold Rating
Nick Castellanos - 37.2% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.904 Cold Rating
Willy Adames - 30.5% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.859 Cold Rating
Eugenio Suarez - 32.9% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.854 Cold Rating
Brandon Belt - 28.8% Whiff%, 78.3% Weak%, 0.848 Cold Rating
Javier Baez - 32.9% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.843 Cold Rating
Austin Hays - 29.0% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.839 Cold Rating
Marcell Ozuna - 33.8% Whiff%, 68.0% Weak%, 0.824 Cold Rating
Michael Harris II - 32.2% Whiff%, 69.2% Weak%, 0.819 Cold Rating
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