MLB Daily Notes: Thursday, June 16
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
Cha boy applied to be the Director of Analytics for Colorado Rockies yesterday, a position that I’m sure I have almost no chance of getting, if not only because I applied online with no person on the inside helping me out. I imagine these positions get like hundreds of applications and they can’t even look at them all - and it seems pretty typical that companies already know who they want for their open positions and just post the jobs for formality’s sake.
I actually do think I’m quite qualified to work in analytics for an MLB team, in fact, I’d imagine I’m better at all of this stuff than plenty of the people that currently have those jobs. The problem is that I’m not willing to move anywhere else, and certainly not to a big city. So even if I got a job offer, I’d probably have to decline because I doubt any team would let me do it fully remote.
Which is fine, the great thing about life right now is that I can do all of this baseball stuff that I love so much on the side of my real job, which pays the bills. It would be cool to do it full-time, but I’m perfectly fine doing it like I am now. I would imagine that if I did work for a team, I’d have to completely shut down everything else - they probably wouldn’t let me even keep talking about this stuff publically on Twitter. The job salary was listed at $170,000 - so I mean, that’s worth giving up some stuff for - lol - but it’s all a moot point anyways, just thought it’d be fun to mention here.
All of that said, if anybody reading has any contacts with a Major League Baseball team - you know where to contact me ;)
The hitter of the day was Luke Voit, who has had some kind of strange season. He’s hitting .237/.314/.432 with eight homers on the year after he porked one last night on three hits and two barrels. He has the lowest contact rate in the whole league for hitters with 150+ PA:
Voit 57.6%
Baez 59.0%
Gallo 59.3%
Taylor 59.5%
Larnach 60.8%
That’s led to a 33% strikeout rate. Over the last month of play, the numbers are basically the same at 32.5% K% and a 59.8% contact%, but he’s been a bit more fortunate in getting hits as he’s hitting .274, and his six homers put him in the top 25 in that category over that time.
He’s basically a Gallo-type player right now, I think.
On the pitcher side, Spencer Strider was the top man, racking up 11 strikeouts on 24 whiffs on 106 pitches. He once again couldn’t get through the sixth inning, but he limited the walks to just a pair and gave up only one barrel which went for a homer. He has 42 whiffs over his last two starts with 19 strikeouts, and he’s thrown more than 90 pitches in both appearances. He’s pretty electric and I’d call him a must-start guy right now - especially since the Braves have just decided to win every single they play this month.
Jose Berrios also took advantage of another soft matchup, but even so - the 20.9% SwStr% you see below was his best output of the year and a very encouraging sign. We’ll see how he stands up against tougher matchups, but it looks like he’s figured out some of the problems he had early on and can be started with confidence. Props to people who stuck it out, I might have been dropping that guy if I had drafted him at all (I don’t think I have ever drafted him in my life).
The strikeout comparison sheet that premium subs have access to here is really liking the Joe Musgroves strikeout line on FanDuel.
You can see he’s at 6.5 on DraftKings (+115) and 5.5 on FanDuel (-146). Once again, the juice takes away a lot of the opportunity, but if you just want to get that dopamine shot that comes from winning a bet, I think you’ll win it tonight with Musgrove.
Speaking of strikeout bets and all of that stuff, I talked with Frank about all of that and more on the most recent podcast, which went QUITE LONG. If you missed it, check it out below:
We added a mailbag to the podcast, so we’ll take some questions at the end of every episode. You can submit questions and comments any time on this form:
https://tinyurl.com/afbpmailbag
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jose Berrios (TOR): 20.9 SwStr%, 37.2 CSW%
2. Luis Garcia (HOU): 20.7 SwStr%, 34.8 CSW%
3. Shane McClanahan (TB): 14.3 SwStr%, 34.7 CSW%
4. Spencer Strider (ATL): 22.6 SwStr%, 34.0 CSW%
5. Luis Castillo (CIN): 10.0 SwStr%, 33.6 CSW%
6. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 17.5 SwStr%, 33.0 CSW%
7. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 14.3 SwStr%, 31.9 CSW%
8. Roansy Contreras (PIT): 7.1 SwStr%, 31.8 CSW%
9. Zac Gallen (ARI): 9.6 SwStr%, 30.8 CSW%
10. Reid Detmers (LAA): 12.0 SwStr%, 30.1 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Spencer Strider - 5.67 IP - 90.75 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes - 5.67 IP - 76.25 JA Points
3. Jose Berrios - 7.0 IP - 73.75 JA Points
4. Luis Garcia - 6.0 IP - 62.25 JA Points
5. Tyler Anderson - 8.0 IP - 62.0 JA Points
6. Zac Gallen - 6.67 IP - 61.25 JA Points
7. Shane McClanahan - 5.67 IP - 60.5 JA Points
8. Kyle Gibson - 8.0 IP - 55.25 JA Points
9. Luis Castillo - 7.0 IP - 44.0 JA Points
10. Nestor Cortes - 5.33 IP - 37.0 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 13 GS - 56.35 JA Points
2. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 4 GS - 54.7 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 13 GS - 53.63 JA Points
4. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 13 GS - 51.5 JA Points
5. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 8 GS - 49.99 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 13 GS - 47.77 JA Points
7. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 7 GS - 46.62 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8 GS - 46.36 JA Points
9. Luis Severino (NYY) - 11 GS - 45.82 JA Points
10. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 10 GS - 45.69 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Luis Castillo's SI velo (20 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 98.6
Konnor Pilkington's CH velo (18 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 85.7
Luis Castillo's CH velo (41 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 89.6
Erick Fedde's SI velo (31 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 94.1
Austin Gomber's SL velo (33 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 85.2
Luis Garcia's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 76.9
Daniel Castano's FF velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 91.0
James Kaprielian's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 84.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Austin Gomber's SL usage (37.1%) up 12.2 points
Bruce Zimmermann's SI usage (21.2%) up 13.9 points
Daniel Castano's FC usage (54.3%) up 22.6 points
David Peterson's FF usage (54.8%) up 21.6 points
Davis Martin's CU usage (19.6%) up 10.6 points
Jose Berrios's CU usage (43.0%) up 12.4 points
Josh Winckowski's CH usage (16.5%) up 14.9 points
Kolby Allard's FC usage (27.6%) up 12.5 points
Nestor Cortes's FF usage (57.1%) up 18.8 points
Reid Detmers's SL usage (31.3%) up 15.7 points
Spencer Strider's SL usage (35.8%) up 12.2 points
Zac Gallen's KC usage (31.7%) up 14.2 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane Bieber - 100 TBF, 36.8% CSW%
Aaron Ashby - 76 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 99 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Logan Webb - 99 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 96 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Corey Kluber - 87 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Tyler Mahle - 106 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Brady Singer - 90 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Jon Gray - 100 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 81 TBF, 38.3% K%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 35.9% K%
Hunter Greene - 82 TBF, 35.4% K%
Tyler Mahle - 106 TBF, 34.0% K%
Gerrit Cole - 86 TBF, 33.7% K%
Shane McClanahan - 99 TBF, 31.3% K%
Aaron Ashby - 76 TBF, 30.3% K%
Jon Gray - 100 TBF, 30.0% K%
Carlos Carrasco - 97 TBF, 29.9% K%
Chris Bassitt - 94 TBF, 29.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Hunter Greene - 82 TBF, 30.5% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 99 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 28.3% K-BB%
Tyler Mahle - 106 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 86 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Aaron Ashby - 76 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 100 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 81 TBF, 25.9% K-BB%
Jose Berrios - 94 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 110 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 81 TBF, 69.2% GB%
Aaron Ashby - 76 TBF, 64.0% GB%
Max Fried - 101 TBF, 61.6% GB%
Andre Pallante - 74 TBF, 61.1% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 115 TBF, 60.5% GB%
Jason Alexander - 74 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Justin Steele - 92 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 97 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Dane Dunning - 93 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 95 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 76 TBF, 30.3 K%, 3.9 BB%, 64.0% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 7.2 BB%, 57.6% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 86 TBF, 33.7 K%, 7.0 BB%, 49.0% GB%
Logan Webb - 99 TBF, 28.3 K%, 6.1 BB%, 52.3% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 115 TBF, 28.7 K%, 4.3 BB%, 60.5% GB%
Shane Bieber - 100 TBF, 29.0 K%, 3.0 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Walker Buehler - 54 TBF, 29.6 K%, 5.6 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 72 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.6 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Sandy Alcantara - +3.6% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Tyler Mahle - +2.2% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Shane Bieber - +2.5% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Zach Davies - +3.6% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Corey Kluber - +3.1% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Paul Blackburn - +2.3% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Kyle Wright - +2.7% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Tarik Skubal - +3.6% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Jorge Alfaro (SD) 6 PA, 7 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Luke Voit (SD) 6 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Trea Turner (LAD) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Will Smith (LAD) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Luke Voit - 6.0 PA - 60.0 JA Points
2. Orlando Arcia - 5.0 PA - 59.0 JA Points
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 5.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
4. Rafael Devers - 5.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
5. Manny Machado - 5.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
6. Jose Abreu - 6.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
7. Yoan Moncada - 6.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
8. Trea Turner - 4.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
9. Hunter Renfroe - 5.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
10. Jorge Alfaro - 6.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 239.0 PA - 145.61 JA Points
2. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 249.0 PA - 139.76 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 259.0 PA - 135.14 JA Points
4. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 273.0 PA - 127.77 JA Points
5. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 166.0 PA - 119.76 JA Points
6. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 191.0 PA - 116.02 JA Points
7. Juan Soto (WSH) - 277.0 PA - 115.81 JA Points
8. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 261.0 PA - 113.1 JA Points
9. Will Smith (LAD) - 200.0 PA - 113.0 JA Points
10. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 223.0 PA - 106.37 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 115.7mph - single
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 115.4mph - single
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 114.8mph - home_run
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) - 114.1mph - home_run
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 112.8mph - home_run
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 112.3mph - field_out
Jorge Alfaro (SD) - 112.1mph - double
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) - 111.7mph - double
Matt Davidson (OAK) - 111.5mph - home_run
Manny Machado (SD) - 111.4mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Kyle Schwarber - 87 PA, 48 BIP, 12 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 79 PA, 54 BIP, 13 Brls, 24.1 Brl%
Jake Burger - 61 PA, 42 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.8 Brl%
Jazz Chisholm - 68 PA, 39 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 73 PA, 43 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.9 Brl%
Austin Riley - 89 PA, 57 BIP, 11 Brls, 19.3 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 69 PA, 48 BIP, 9 Brls, 18.8 Brl%
Adam Duvall - 68 PA, 43 BIP, 8 Brls, 18.6 Brl%
William Contreras - 55 PA, 33 BIP, 6 Brls, 18.2 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 81 PA, 55 BIP, 10 Brls, 18.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 51 PA, 71 Swings, 95.8 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 64 PA, 114 Swings, 93.0 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 74 PA, 102 Swings, 92.2 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 63 PA, 108 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 57 PA, 96 Swings, 90.6 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 85 PA, 156 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 74 PA, 123 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 71 PA, 103 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 76 PA, 129 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Myles Straw - 74 PA, 114 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Alejandro Kirk - 62 PA, 11.3 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 77 PA, 14.3 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Jose Abreu - 86 PA, 14.0 K%, 15.3 Brl%
Juan Soto - 80 PA, 18.8 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 74 PA, 17.6 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Nick Gordon - 55 PA, 14.5 K%, 16.3 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 92 PA, 17.4 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 69 PA, 17.4 K%, 18.8 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 81 PA, 19.8 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 84 PA, 17.9 K%, 17.7 Brl%
Will Smith - 75 PA, 12.0 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 78 PA, 9.0 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Brandon Drury - +9.6% Contact%, +3.0 mph exit velo, -6.1 Chase%
Paul Goldschmidt - +8.6% Contact%, +3.9 mph exit velo, -12.4 Chase%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - +3.6% Contact%, +9.7 mph exit velo, -7.8 Chase%
Adolis Garcia - +8.1% Contact%, +4.5 mph exit velo, -4.1 Chase%
Carlos Correa - +3.2% Contact%, +7.1 mph exit velo, -7.5 Chase%
Ian Happ - +6.8% Contact%, +4.3 mph exit velo, -5.5 Chase%
Carlos Santana - +3.6% Contact%, +3.7 mph exit velo, -7.2 Chase%
Gleyber Torres - +12.0% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -4.3 Chase%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Michael Chavis - 38.0% Whiff%, 78.6% Weak%, 0.964 Cold Rating
Julio Rodriguez - 38.6% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.963 Cold Rating
Javier Baez - 46.6% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.919 Cold Rating
Kevin Kiermaier - 31.2% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.882 Cold Rating
Nelson Cruz - 38.8% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.863 Cold Rating
Daulton Varsho - 30.9% Whiff%, 70.6% Weak%, 0.837 Cold Rating
Willi Castro - 28.3% Whiff%, 76.7% Weak%, 0.837 Cold Rating
Christopher Morel - 35.7% Whiff%, 65.8% Weak%, 0.834 Cold Rating
Luis Urias - 26.9% Whiff%, 80.0% Weak%, 0.822 Cold Rating
Aaron Hicks - 29.5% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.803 Cold Rating
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