MLB Daily Notes: Thursday, June 9
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
Two weeks ago in the notes, we wrote a bit about Kole Calhoun being HOT. That’s kind of when all of this business began for me. After publishing the notes that day, I put on my calendar a reminder for me to check how Calhoun fared in the two weeks following that day - with my guess being that he would perform more like his career averages rather than like he had in May up to that point. So let’s check on Calhoun since May 27th:
45 PA, .200 AVG, .289 OBP, .275 SLG, 0 HR, 12% Brl%, 16% K%, 11% BB%, 72% Cont%
So yeah, he hasn’t been good.
Now, this one example doesn’t mean anything. Maybe he truly was hot, but then it wore off two weeks ago. There’s no way to know what is what, which is why my general stance is just to not take any of this prognisticating seriously.
It has been quite fun to see the results of my new “hot hitter tracker”, which we’ve had going in these notes for about 10 days now. As a reminder, that script finds hitters that, over the last 7 days, have improved (as compared to their careeer averages) markedly in chase rate, average exit velocity, and contact rate. I like those there criteria as the test case, because you would think of a hitter is really “locked in”, they would be swinging at bad pitches less often, while making more contact when they do swing and hitting the ball harder when they make contact. It’s been a mixed bag of results so far.
Trevor Larnach was qualifying at the beginning but has been completely terrible in the time since, but also guys like Ramon Laureano, Patrick Wisdom, and Santiago Espinal have put up some nice numbers after qualifying as “hot”. I imagine the script will pick up on some guys that have just gotten better rather than being temporarily good - so it’s a worthwhile thing to check. In fact, I think I’m going to develop something similar for pitchers today if I can find enough time.
This week’s breakout hitters piece is out, so check that out on RotoBaller.
I’ve got a few things sticking out so we’ll do the daily recap in bullet format
Pitchers
Mitch Keller went to the sinker yesterday, he threw 42 sinkers and just 7 four-seamers. Prior to May 25th, he had thrown just one sinker all year. It worked, and he got through six innings, but it doesn’t make him any more interesting for fantasy because he’s going to lose whatever strikeout rate he had. He stinks, and it’s very sad to me, being a bandwagon Pirates fan.
Bieber once again looked like his old self with a 39% CSW% and a 20.4% SwStr%. He once again absolutely dominated with both the curveball and the slider. The fastball velocity is still average just 90, but he’s been able to work around it and looks to be one of the top pitchers in the game moving forward - although he has faced a pretty easy schedule lately.
Over the last month, Brady Singer has a 24.4% K% and a 2.5% BB% with a 34.4% CSW%. He’s been getting barreled up a bunch, but he’s also faced the Astros & Blue Jays recently - so that doesn’t help. He may be someone to add in deep leagues.
Hitters
Andres Gimenez had two barrels yesterday and is really coming into his own this year, he’s on the breakout hitter piece but the numbers are even better now than what I wrote there after yesterday
Trea Turner had his first (I think) two-barrel game of the year with a homer. He’s a quiet MVP candidate, I think. He’s slugging .574 over the last month, the seventh-best mark in the league (hitting .336 in that time). I was a little worried after April that he wouldn’t hit for much power with the new ball, but he’s back to his usual ways of hitting for a slightly better than average amount of power
Ramon Laureano is also swinging the bat very well this year, so I guess he doesn’t need those PEDs after all
Prop Bets
Shane McClanahan under 7.5
Nick Pivetta over 5.5
JT Brubaker over 4.5
Joey Votto to homer (bet your house on it - win an extra 2.5 houses)
Now on with the show!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Shane Bieber (CLE): 20.4 SwStr%, 38.9 CSW%
2. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 16.2 SwStr%, 36.2 CSW%
3. Josiah Gray (WSH): 14.9 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
4. Alex Faedo (DET): 20.7 SwStr%, 32.9 CSW%
5. Corey Kluber (TB): 12.5 SwStr%, 32.5 CSW%
6. Nathan Eovaldi (BOS): 16.7 SwStr%, 32.1 CSW%
7. Brady Singer (KC): 13.3 SwStr%, 31.6 CSW%
8. Merrill Kelly (ARI): 18.5 SwStr%, 30.4 CSW%
9. Sean Manaea (SD): 11.0 SwStr%, 29.7 CSW%
10. Johan Oviedo (STL): 17.2 SwStr%, 29.3 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Sandy Alcantara - 9.0 IP - 77.5 JA Points
2. Josiah Gray - 4.67 IP - 65.75 JA Points
3. Alex Wood - 7.0 IP - 53.0 JA Points
4. Alex Faedo - 5.0 IP - 52.5 JA Points
5. Aaron Nola - 8.0 IP - 50.75 JA Points
6. Merrill Kelly - 6.0 IP - 50.75 JA Points
7. Nathan Eovaldi - 5.0 IP - 49.0 JA Points
8. Brady Singer - 5.0 IP - 49.0 JA Points
9. Ian Anderson - 5.67 IP - 46.5 JA Points
10. Corey Kluber - 5.0 IP - 42.75 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 11 GS - 55.82 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 11 GS - 54.25 JA Points
3. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 8 GS - 49.99 JA Points
4. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 11 GS - 49.74 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 11 GS - 49.2 JA Points
6. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 6 GS - 47.75 JA Points
7. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 11 GS - 47.09 JA Points
8. Wil Crowe (PIT) - 1 GS - 46.95 JA Points
9. Alex Cobb (SF) - 8 GS - 46.79 JA Points
10. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 9 GS - 46.63 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Jose Urquidy's FC velo (12 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 89.7
Nestor Cortes's FC velo (28 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 88.5
Reid Detmers's SL velo (12 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 84.6
Nestor Cortes's SL velo (15 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 78.8
Nestor Cortes's FF velo (38 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 92.6
Chris Bassitt's FC velo (16 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 90.4
Mitch Keller's CU velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 78.9
Johan Oviedo's SL velo (24 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 83.5
Nathan Eovaldi's FS velo (24 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 86.5
Nathan Eovaldi's CU velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 77.1
Nathan Eovaldi's FF velo (32 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 94.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Mitch Keller's SI usage (44.2%) up 37.1 points
Nathan Eovaldi's FS usage (28.6%) up 10.2 points
Reid Detmers's CH usage (23.5%) up 10.4 points
Sean Manaea's SI usage (76.9%) up 15.7 points
Shane Bieber's SL usage (53.7%) up 12.9 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 77 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 99 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Sandy Alcantara - 119 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 78 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Luis Severino - 75 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 94 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Zack Wheeler - 78 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Tony Gonsolin - 86 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 105 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Tyler Anderson - 73 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 78 TBF, 38.5% K%
Aaron Ashby - 77 TBF, 35.1% K%
Zack Wheeler - 78 TBF, 33.3% K%
Shane Bieber - 99 TBF, 32.3% K%
Hunter Greene - 87 TBF, 32.2% K%
Cristian Javier - 81 TBF, 32.1% K%
Luis Severino - 75 TBF, 30.7% K%
Justin Verlander - 108 TBF, 29.6% K%
Nathan Eovaldi - 102 TBF, 29.4% K%
Frankie Montas - 85 TBF, 29.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 78 TBF, 34.6% K-BB%
Aaron Ashby - 77 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 99 TBF, 28.3% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 78 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 87 TBF, 27.6% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 105 TBF, 27.6% K-BB%
Luis Severino - 75 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 102 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Sandy Alcantara - 119 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Frankie Montas - 85 TBF, 25.9% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 77 TBF, 68.9% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 83 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Framber Valdez - 111 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 91 TBF, 61.1% GB%
Patrick Corbin - 103 TBF, 60.5% GB%
Max Fried - 77 TBF, 58.6% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 91 TBF, 58.0% GB%
Kyle Wright - 97 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Martin Perez - 111 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 119 TBF, 55.7% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 77 TBF, 35.1 K%, 6.5 BB%, 68.9% GB%
Alex Cobb - 50 TBF, 30.0 K%, 6.0 BB%, 56.2% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 78 TBF, 38.5 K%, 3.8 BB%, 48.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 69 TBF, 31.9 K%, 4.3 BB%, 55.8% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 102 TBF, 29.4 K%, 2.9 BB%, 50.7% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 119 TBF, 29.4 K%, 3.4 BB%, 55.7% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 70 TBF, 34.3 K%, 2.9 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Tanner Houck - 52 TBF, 28.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, 52.9% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 78 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.1 BB%, 54.3% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Andres Gimenez (CLE) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Brandon Marsh (LAA) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Joey Votto (CIN) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Trea Turner (LAD) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Austin Riley - 5.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
2. Will Smith - 4.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
3. Austin Meadows - 4.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
4. Michael A. Taylor - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
5. Ty France - 5.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
6. Bryson Stott - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
7. Luis Gonzalez - 5.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
8. Carlos Santana - 5.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
9. Odubel Herrera - 4.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
10. Byron Buxton - 5.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 213.0 PA - 153.05 JA Points
2. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 223.0 PA - 142.06 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 233.0 PA - 130.3 JA Points
4. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 158.0 PA - 127.85 JA Points
5. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 171.0 PA - 120.0 JA Points
6. Juan Soto (WSH) - 255.0 PA - 113.25 JA Points
7. Trey Mancini (BAL) - 226.0 PA - 113.1 JA Points
8. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 242.0 PA - 109.42 JA Points
9. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 191.0 PA - 107.43 JA Points
10. Joc Pederson (SF) - 160.0 PA - 103.5 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Jake Burger (CWS) - 113.7mph - home_run
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 112.5mph - double
Bryce Harper (PHI) - 112.4mph - home_run
Aristides Aquino (CIN) - 110.7mph - foul
Nolan Gorman (STL) - 110.7mph - foul
Byron Buxton (MIN) - 110.3mph - home_run
Ryan Jeffers (MIN) - 110.0mph - home_run
Nate Lowe (TEX) - 110.0mph - single
Manny Machado (SD) - 109.6mph - double
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 109.3mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Kyle Schwarber - 84 PA, 46 BIP, 13 Brls, 28.3 Brl%
Evan Longoria - 53 PA, 30 BIP, 7 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 82 PA, 53 BIP, 12 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 55 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Austin Riley - 84 PA, 53 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 73 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 83 PA, 44 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 60 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 70 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Joey Votto - 73 PA, 48 BIP, 9 Brls, 18.8 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Jose Ramirez - 73 PA, 133 Swings, 94.0 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 47 PA, 77 Swings, 93.5 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 64 PA, 123 Swings, 92.7 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 79 PA, 126 Swings, 92.1 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 58 PA, 100 Swings, 92.0 Cont%
Jose Altuve - 78 PA, 136 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 68 PA, 114 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Myles Straw - 75 PA, 121 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Jean Segura - 50 PA, 92 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 56 PA, 89 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Alejandro Kirk - 56 PA, 8.9 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 70 PA, 17.1 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 60 PA, 18.3 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Joey Votto - 73 PA, 17.8 K%, 18.8 Brl%
Jorge Polanco - 76 PA, 15.8 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 76 PA, 10.5 K%, 17.5 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Aaron Judge - +6.8% Contact%, +4.1 mph exit velo, -6.1 Chase%
Nick Senzel - +4.6% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -7.3 Chase%
Austin Riley - +3.5% Contact%, +6.9 mph exit velo, -6.0 Chase%
Yordan Alvarez - +6.6% Contact%, +6.5 mph exit velo, -7.8 Chase%
Starling Marte - +3.8% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -11.4 Chase%
Kyle Farmer - +6.0% Contact%, +6.3 mph exit velo, -7.6 Chase%
Jorge Soler - +4.0% Contact%, +5.6 mph exit velo, -6.6 Chase%
Cal Raleigh - +18.1% Contact%, +8.4 mph exit velo, -15.0 Chase%
Ryan Mountcastle - +14.9% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -11.8 Chase%
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