MLB Daily Notes: Thursday, May 12
I have run a 5K every morning this week before 6am, and man it’s been great. At this point, it’s not even tough for me to get up that early, but I will say that the running isn’t nearly as easy at that hour as compared to like noon when I usually would run. That has me running miles about a half minute slower, but it’s just wild how good it makes me feel for the entire rest of the day after starting the day that way.
I think this is going to be something I have to continue to do past this week, it’s so worth it. Highly recommend anybody joining on - you won’t regret it!
Huge addition to the premium content here, paid subscribers will now get access to a Google sheet that compares my model’s strikeout projections with three different sportsbooks: FanDuel, DraftKings, and MGM. Here’s what the first run of today’s sheet looks like:
We have some value on Beau Brieske on FanDuel this morning as their line opened at 3.5. The JA model spat out 5.4 strikeouts for this matchup with the Athletics, so there appears to be some value there.
The sheet will be updated with new projections and lines throughout the day, just like the normal projections sheets are. After today and maybe tomorrow I won’t be sharing the screenshot like that, so you’ll have to join the notes as a paid member for $5/month to get it moving forward.
The man of the day was Shane McClanahan.
He fired off seven scoreless innings giving up just three hits and one walk while striking out 11 Angels. Only eight balls were put in play off of him yesterday and seven of them fell into the “weak contact” category. It was a completely dominant outing, good for the second-best single-game JA score of the year. Here’s the updated top-five starts of the year as we see everybody still chasing Clayton Kershaw’s first start of the season.
Clayton Kershaw 4/13: 109.5 JA Points
Shane McClanahan 5/11: 108.25 JA Points
Shohei Ohtani 5/5: 107 JA Points
Corbin Burnes 4/25: 106.75 JA Points
Shohei Ohtani 4/20: 100 JA Points
Max Scherzer 4/25: 98.75 JA Points
Carlos Rodon 5/9: 95.5 JA Points
Carlos Rodon 4/9: 94.0 JA Points
Kyle Wright 4/22: 90.0 JA Points
He has now made it through seven starts with a K-BB% above 30% (31.6% to be specific!). The only other three starters with 5+ starts and a K-BB% above 30% are Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodon, and Shohei Ohtani.
All four of his pitches just have stupid, stupid good marks.
His changeup has the second-best CSW% in the league (minimum 100 changeups thrown) behind Brandon Woodruff. The curveball is sixth-best by the same parameters, and the slider is third-best (behind Ohtani & Dany Jimenez).
He threw 100 pitches last night, frankly because the Rays just didn’t have much choice. He came out for the 7th with a pitch count in the high eighties and cruised through that inning to notch that season-high pitch count. I would still imagine the Rays want to keep him at 85-90 pitches per start, but I’m sure we’ll see a few more starts like this where they just can’t justify pulling him because he’s pitching so well.
With that start, he becomes the JA Model’s #1 pitcher on the year
If we were drafting today, I’d certainly still be taking Burnes and Scherzer over him… but after that McClanahan would definitely be in consideration. Like there would be no one else I’d take over him without a second thought, is what I’m saying.
In other news
Christian Yelich is BACK
Gleyber Torres is BACK
Alex Cobb is a STUD
Luke Voit is having a really weird year
Just keep starting Whit Merrifield, there’s really not a ton of reason to think he’s anything different this year than he was last year. I imagine a lot of people had him benched for that smash-and-grab (a homer and a steal) yesterday, but those people are idiots lmao!
Other Reading
Eric Samulski: Pitchers with New Pitches, Should We Care?
Jon Anderson: Berakout Hitters to Watch for Fantasy Baseball Week 6
Michael Florio: Week 5 Bullpen Report
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Shane McClanahan (TB): 24.0 SwStr%, 40.0 CSW%
2. Nathan Eovaldi (BOS): 18.4 SwStr%, 35.7 CSW%
3. Bailey Falter (PHI): 13.8 SwStr%, 35.4 CSW%
4. Zach Logue (OAK): 15.5 SwStr%, 34.0 CSW%
5. Alex Cobb (SF): 8.2 SwStr%, 32.9 CSW%
6. Nick Martinez (SD): 18.5 SwStr%, 32.1 CSW%
7. Ian Anderson (ATL): 13.5 SwStr%, 30.2 CSW%
8. Chad Kuhl (COL): 14.9 SwStr%, 29.7 CSW%
9. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 13.0 SwStr%, 29.3 CSW%
10. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 15.2 SwStr%, 29.3 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Shane McClanahan - 6.67 IP - 108.25 JA Points
2. Zach Logue - 7.0 IP - 60.75 JA Points
3. Caleb Smith - 3.0 IP - 55.25 JA Points
4. Sandy Alcantara - 7.0 IP - 53.0 JA Points
5. Bailey Falter - 4.67 IP - 48.75 JA Points
6. Shohei Ohtani - 6.0 IP - 47.75 JA Points
7. Joel Payamps - 3.0 IP - 46.25 JA Points
8. Alex Cobb - 5.33 IP - 45.5 JA Points
9. Nathan Eovaldi - 6.33 IP - 45.25 JA Points
10. Chad Kuhl - 4.67 IP - 45.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 7.0 GS - 57.96 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 6.0 GS - 56.28 JA Points
3. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 6.0 GS - 55.98 JA Points
4. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 6.0 GS - 55.36 JA Points
5. Alex Cobb (SF) - 5.0 GS - 54.71 JA Points
6. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 6.0 GS - 53.42 JA Points
7. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 6.0 GS - 53.18 JA Points
8. Lucas Giolito (CWS) - 5.0 GS - 51.44 JA Points
9. Garrett Whitlock (BOS) - 4.0 GS - 50.32 JA Points
10. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 6.0 GS - 47.87 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Logan Gilbert's CH velo (12 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 88.2
Logan Gilbert's SL velo (13 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 88.7
Nathan Eovaldi's SL velo (20 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 88.0
Alex Cobb's KC velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 82.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Chad Kuhl's SL usage (52.5%) up 13.3 points
Jameson Taillon's FC usage (24.7%) up 13.5 points
Nick Martinez's CH usage (35.8%) up 12.2 points
Sandy Alcantara's CH usage (44.4%) up 22.4 points
Spenser Watkins's FF usage (51.9%) up 17.1 points
Travis Lakins's FF usage (50.0%) up 14.1 points
Trevor Williams's CU usage (23.5%) up 21.5 points
Tylor Megill's CH usage (33.3%) up 12.5 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jordan Montgomery - 87 TBF, 37.5% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 36.9% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 36.5% CSW%
Lucas Giolito - 89 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 71 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 75 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 79 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Aaron Ashby - 66 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Eric Lauer - 73 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 82 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Eric Lauer - 73 TBF, 43.8% K%
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 37.3% K%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 36.6% K%
Max Scherzer - 74 TBF, 35.1% K%
Lucas Giolito - 89 TBF, 34.8% K%
Carlos Rodon - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
Gerrit Cole - 75 TBF, 33.3% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 79 TBF, 32.9% K%
Dylan Cease - 95 TBF, 32.6% K%
Freddy Peralta - 87 TBF, 32.2% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Eric Lauer - 73 TBF, 37.0% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 74 TBF, 32.4% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 32.0% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 102 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 97 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%
Lucas Giolito - 89 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 75 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 87 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 70 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 76 TBF, 72.7% GB%
Adam Wainwright - 72 TBF, 68.5% GB%
Aaron Ashby - 66 TBF, 65.0% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 95 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 61.1% GB%
Logan Webb - 79 TBF, 61.0% GB%
Yu Darvish - 75 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Kyle Freeland - 72 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Austin Gomber - 90 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Keegan Thompson - 72 TBF, 55.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 97 TBF, 32.0 K%, 3.1 BB%, 47.6% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 37.3 K%, 5.3 BB%, 52.4% GB%
Drew Rasmussen - 59 TBF, 28.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Dylan Cease - 95 TBF, 32.6 K%, 7.4 BB%, 46.4% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 87 TBF, 32.2 K%, 5.7 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 102 TBF, 31.4 K%, 1.0 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Michael King - 44 TBF, 43.2 K%, 4.5 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 97 TBF, 27.8 K%, 5.2 BB%, 52.3% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 36.6 K%, 5.4 BB%, 61.1% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Colin Moran (CIN) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jurickson Profar (SD) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Luke Voit (SD) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Luke Voit - 5.0 PA - 60.0 JA Points
2. Christian Yelich - 5.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
3. Jurickson Profar - 5.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
4. Brendan Donovan - 4.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
5. Daniel Vogelbach - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
6. Willson Contreras - 4.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
7. Nelson Cruz - 4.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
8. Josh VanMeter - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
9. Colin Moran - 5.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
10. Whit Merrifield - 4.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Mike Trout (LAA) - 116.0 PA - 159.66 JA Points
2. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 98.0 PA - 144.49 JA Points
3. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 132.0 PA - 143.94 JA Points
4. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 102.0 PA - 134.9 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 127.0 PA - 132.6 JA Points
6. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 123.0 PA - 118.05 JA Points
7. Juan Soto (WSH) - 142.0 PA - 115.77 JA Points
8. Carlos Santana (KC) - 76.0 PA - 106.32 JA Points
9. Rowdy Tellez (MIL) - 114.0 PA - 103.51 JA Points
10. Alex Bregman (HOU) - 122.0 PA - 102.62 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Willson Contreras (CHC) - 114.0mph - single
Anthony Santander (BAL) - 114.0mph - foul
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 113.2mph - single
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 111.9mph - field_out
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 111.5mph - double
Tyler Naquin (CIN) - 111.0mph - field_out
Nelson Cruz (WSH) - 110.8mph - home_run
Daniel Vogelbach (PIT) - 110.6mph - home_run
Juan Yepez (STL) - 110.4mph - foul
Brandon Nimmo (NYM) - 110.2mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Mike Trout - 79 PA, 44 BIP, 15 Brls, 34.1 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 73 PA, 47 BIP, 14 Brls, 29.8 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 46 PA, 22 BIP, 6 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 47 PA, 25 BIP, 6 Brls, 24.0 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 74 PA, 50 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Byron Buxton - 53 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 67 PA, 46 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.7 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 47 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Willy Adames - 84 PA, 53 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 74 PA, 45 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 59 PA, 90 Swings, 93.3 Cont%
Michael Brantley - 64 PA, 112 Swings, 91.1 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 46 PA, 84 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 73 PA, 108 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 58 PA, 113 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Wander Franco - 77 PA, 151 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Ty France - 90 PA, 181 Swings, 87.3 Cont%
Austin Meadows - 72 PA, 126 Swings, 87.3 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 74 PA, 100 Swings, 87.0 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 54 PA, 98 Swings, 86.7 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Christian Yelich - 81 PA, 17.3 K%, 19.0 Brl%
Corey Seager - 77 PA, 16.9 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Freddie Freeman - 72 PA, 12.5 K%, 19.2 Brl%
George Springer - 77 PA, 19.5 K%, 15.1 Brl%
Gleyber Torres - 58 PA, 12.1 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Josh Donaldson - 60 PA, 20.0 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Luis Robert - 49 PA, 14.3 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Max Kepler - 65 PA, 18.5 K%, 15.6 Brl%
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