MLB Daily Notes: Thursday, May 19

May 19, 2022

∙ Paid

Goofy day yesterday! We had Burnes, Scherzer, Gausman, Ohtani, Cole, Fried, and Giolito all pitching and they were all handily beaten by Nick Pivetta, Drew Rasmussen, and Jordan Lyles.

Kole Calhoun also had another big day and is hitting .341/.412/.773 with a 25% barrel rate and five homers in May, and he’s the top JA model hitter over that timespan. Dude is 34 years old and seemingly has been in the league since I started playing fantasy baseball 15 years ago.

This is indeed an interesting test case for the player hotness theory. Plenty of people (what up Eric Samulski!), in fact probably the majority, would probably take these last two weeks as proof that Calhoun is temporarily a much better baseball player than he usually is. They would tell you to pick Calhoun up and ride out this hot streak! How will anybody know when the hot streak officially comes to an end? How do we differentiate between a streak of good fortune propelled by a hitter seeing better pitches to hit and just getting luckier outcomes? I have no idea, and I don’t think anybody does! If only it were as easy as NBA Jam made it…

I would tell you that Calhoun is a .232/.320/.461 hitter since 2019, and that is over 1,150 plate appearances - a much more believable sample size. I would then predict that he will hit much closer to that slash line over the next three weeks than what he’s done over the last three weeks. So it’s on, we’ll check back in three weeks to see if I’m right, it’s on my calendar!

Prop Bets

Throwing in a little section here when I have some extra time in the mornings. Let’s take a peek at the strikeout lines

FanDuel seems to be the book to go to for strikeout lines, they seemingly have a number for every pitcher right away. That gives us some real opportunities to beat the market early in the day, I think.

Yesterday we got Zack Wheeler at 5.5 on FanDuel, there was some juice involved obviously but the model was saying 7.5 strikeouts for Wheeler so we drank the juice and he cruised past the mark for a win. I’ll be trying to focus on pitchers where we have a differential of 1.5 or more, and I’ll be more or less ignoring the guys we don’t have much data on (for example, George Kirby today - my model doesn’t know enough about him to make real projections so it just imagines he’s a league-average pitcher, so we won’t be betting on anything like that).

This sheet will be updated a few times throughout the day as more lines come out and the projections move, but for now I’ve jumped on these two

Tyler Mahle over 4.5 on FanDuel

He’s still getting strikeouts (9.8 K/9), and he’s gone over 4.5 strikeouts in five of his eight starts. The Guardians don’t strike out much (19.2% vs. RHB), but hey the model accounts for all of this and Mahle is at 6.0 strikeouts there.

Glenn Otto under 4.5 on DraftKings

Otto has 4, 2, 5, and 5 strikeouts in his four starts this year, and one of those was against the Astros where he struck out five. He’s also been throwing more pitches lately (86 and 94 in his last two starts), but I’m doubting pretty hard that he’ll get to 90+ pitches in this spot against the Astros, so I’m on the under.

Total Base Props!

DraftKings offers total base prop lines for hitters. I was able to develop a script to scrape the lines and compare to my projections just like we’ve been doing with strikeouts. A comparison sheet has been added to the premium notes and I’ve added your access if you’re already a paid sub. Here’s what it looks like

Something like 75% of the time the model is going to be on the “over”, but almost all of these over betting lines are -140 or worse, so what we really need to look for is

Differentials well above 1
Lines below -130

The best lines on this first run, you see, are Melendez and Judge at 0.5 and 1.5 respectively. Total bases are pretty random, I’m sure, but there are probably still some spots to exploit if we really focus on the better lines. That sheet will also be refreshed throughout the day, so if you’re not a paid subscriber yet - become one now!

CSW% Leaders - Yesterday

1. Nick Martinez (SD): 16.0 SwStr%, 38.0 CSW%

2. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 15.5 SwStr%, 36.1 CSW%

3. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 19.6 SwStr%, 36.1 CSW%

4. Drew Rasmussen (TB): 23.0 SwStr%, 35.6 CSW%

5. Logan Webb (SF): 11.3 SwStr%, 35.1 CSW%

6. Jordan Lyles (BAL): 12.3 SwStr%, 34.9 CSW%

7. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 17.0 SwStr%, 34.8 CSW%

8. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 19.0 SwStr%, 32.4 CSW%

9. Kyle Freeland (COL): 15.5 SwStr%, 32.0 CSW%

10. Max Scherzer (NYM): 14.9 SwStr%, 31.0 CSW%

Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday

1. Drew Rasmussen - 5.0 IP - 77.75 JA Points

2. Nick Pivetta - 9.0 IP - 77.5 JA Points

3. Jordan Lyles - 7.0 IP - 76.5 JA Points

4. Zack Wheeler - 6.67 IP - 76.25 JA Points

5. Corbin Burnes - 6.0 IP - 66.75 JA Points

6. Josiah Gray - 6.0 IP - 64.0 JA Points

7. Gerrit Cole - 7.0 IP - 59.0 JA Points

8. Nick Martinez - 4.0 IP - 51.0 JA Points

9. Logan Webb - 7.0 IP - 50.0 JA Points

10. Kyle Freeland - 6.0 IP - 49.75 JA Points

Pitcher JA Scores - Season

1. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 8.0 GS - 56.99 JA Points

2. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 8.0 GS - 56.08 JA Points

3. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 8.0 GS - 54.04 JA Points

4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 7.0 GS - 53.37 JA Points

5. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 7.0 GS - 52.5 JA Points

6. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 7.0 GS - 50.98 JA Points

7. Lucas Giolito (CWS) - 6.0 GS - 49.65 JA Points

8. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 8.0 GS - 49.03 JA Points

9. Alex Cobb (SF) - 6.0 GS - 48.41 JA Points

10. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8.0 GS - 46.36 JA Points

Velo Changes - Yesterday

Shohei Ohtani's CU velo (11 pitches) UP 2.7mph to 81.1

Shohei Ohtani's SL velo (29 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 86.9

Shohei Ohtani's FC velo (12 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 91.6

Shohei Ohtani's FF velo (40 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 98.6

Zack Greinke's SL velo (33 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 84.9

Mitch Keller's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 85.6

Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday

Dane Dunning's SI usage (51.1%) up 10.9 points

Daulton Jefferies's SI usage (50.0%) up 16.4 points

Jordan Lyles's SI usage (29.2%) up 11.0 points

Josiah Gray's SL usage (44.2%) up 21.7 points

Kyle Freeland's SL usage (35.0%) up 10.8 points

Logan Webb's SL usage (42.3%) up 14.0 points

Luis Garcia's FC usage (34.6%) up 11.7 points

Mitch Keller's CH usage (25.9%) up 14.7 points

Nick Martinez's SI usage (36.0%) up 26.1 points

Shohei Ohtani's FC usage (12.8%) up 11.0 points

Walker Buehler's FC usage (37.4%) up 12.4 points

Zack Greinke's SL usage (36.7%) up 15.8 points

Zack Greinke's SI usage (14.4%) up 12.3 points

CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Gerrit Cole - 105 TBF, 36.1% CSW%

Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 35.5% CSW%

Freddy Peralta - 91 TBF, 34.8% CSW%

Dylan Cease - 90 TBF, 34.7% CSW%

Lucas Giolito - 92 TBF, 34.2% CSW%

Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 33.4% CSW%

Dane Dunning - 99 TBF, 32.2% CSW%

Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 32.1% CSW%

JT Brubaker - 89 TBF, 32.1% CSW%

Yusei Kikuchi - 79 TBF, 31.9% CSW%

K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Dylan Cease - 90 TBF, 43.3% K%

Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 37.4% K%

Freddy Peralta - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%

Robbie Ray - 98 TBF, 32.7% K%

Sean Manaea - 80 TBF, 32.5% K%

Lucas Giolito - 92 TBF, 31.5% K%

Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 31.2% K%

Tarik Skubal - 95 TBF, 30.5% K%

Yusei Kikuchi - 79 TBF, 30.4% K%

Hunter Greene - 93 TBF, 30.1% K%

K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Dylan Cease - 90 TBF, 35.6% K-BB%

Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%

Freddy Peralta - 91 TBF, 30.8% K-BB%

Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%

Lucas Giolito - 92 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%

Corey Kluber - 85 TBF, 25.9% K-BB%

Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%

Sean Manaea - 80 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%

Nick Pivetta - 96 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%

Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%

GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Framber Valdez - 82 TBF, 67.2% GB%

Patrick Sandoval - 80 TBF, 62.1% GB%

Dane Dunning - 99 TBF, 61.2% GB%

Drew Rasmussen - 78 TBF, 58.6% GB%

Dakota Hudson - 93 TBF, 58.3% GB%

Michael Lorenzen - 79 TBF, 58.1% GB%

Alex Wood - 89 TBF, 57.1% GB%

Joan Adon - 80 TBF, 57.1% GB%

Adrian Houser - 94 TBF, 57.1% GB%

Logan Webb - 101 TBF, 56.0% GB%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks

Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 29.7 K%, 4.0 BB%, 47.0% GB%

Corbin Burnes - 102 TBF, 28.4 K%, 2.0 BB%, 47.8% GB%

Freddy Peralta - 91 TBF, 35.2 K%, 4.4 BB%, 47.2% GB%

Gerrit Cole - 105 TBF, 28.6 K%, 3.8 BB%, 47.9% GB%

Nick Martinez - 77 TBF, 29.9 K%, 6.5 BB%, 51.0% GB%

Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 37.4 K%, 5.5 BB%, 55.8% GB%

Tarik Skubal - 95 TBF, 30.5 K%, 7.4 BB%, 52.5% GB%

Zac Gallen - 73 TBF, 28.8 K%, 1.4 BB%, 47.9% GB%

Multiple Barrels

Isaac Paredes (TB) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR

Jared Walsh (LAA) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR

Jazz Chisholm (MIA) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Kole Calhoun (TEX) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday

1. Jared Walsh - 5.0 PA - 75.0 JA Points

2. Jazz Chisholm - 5.0 PA - 66.0 JA Points

3. Keibert Ruiz - 5.0 PA - 60.0 JA Points

4. Kole Calhoun - 5.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points

5. Isaac Paredes - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points

6. Xander Bogaerts - 4.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points

7. Rafael Devers - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points

8. Pete Alonso - 5.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points

9. Thairo Estrada - 4.0 PA - 36.0 JA Points

10. Spencer Torkelson - 3.0 PA - 33.0 JA Points

Hitter JA Scores - Season

1. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 127.0 PA - 153.7 JA Points

2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 151.0 PA - 140.66 JA Points

3. Mike Trout (LAA) - 144.0 PA - 138.89 JA Points

4. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 137.0 PA - 132.26 JA Points

5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 162.0 PA - 126.67 JA Points

6. Juan Soto (WSH) - 172.0 PA - 120.0 JA Points

7. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 150.0 PA - 119.73 JA Points

8. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 131.0 PA - 106.26 JA Points

9. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 157.0 PA - 104.71 JA Points

10. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 112.0 PA - 101.07 JA Points

Hardest Hit Balls

Mike Trout (LAA) - 114.4mph - home_run

Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 113.1mph - single

Ramon Laureano (OAK) - 111.5mph - foul

C.J. Cron (COL) - 111.4mph - home_run

Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) - 110.9mph - foul

Seth Brown (OAK) - 110.8mph - triple

Rafael Devers (BOS) - 110.8mph - foul

Randy Arozarena (TB) - 110.6mph - foul

Joey Gallo (NYY) - 110.4mph foul

Pete Alonso (NYM) - 110.3mph - foul

Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders

Aaron Judge - 76 PA, 48 BIP, 16 Brls, 33.3 Brl%

Ronald Acuna Jr. - 56 PA, 25 BIP, 6 Brls, 24.0 Brl%

Mike Trout - 81 PA, 46 BIP, 11 Brls, 23.9 Brl%

Giancarlo Stanton - 75 PA, 51 BIP, 12 Brls, 23.5 Brl%

Kole Calhoun - 61 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%

Christian Yelich - 82 PA, 52 BIP, 11 Brls, 21.2 Brl%

Gary Sanchez - 71 PA, 43 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.9 Brl%

J.D. Martinez - 67 PA, 48 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.8 Brl%

Kyle Schwarber - 72 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%

Rowdy Tellez - 79 PA, 49 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.4 Brl%

Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders

Steven Kwan - 62 PA, 87 Swings, 93.1 Cont%

Luis Arraez - 54 PA, 92 Swings, 92.4 Cont%

Michael Brantley - 73 PA, 121 Swings, 91.7 Cont%

Austin Meadows - 54 PA, 92 Swings, 91.3 Cont%

Ty France - 89 PA, 176 Swings, 89.8 Cont%

Wander Franco - 79 PA, 165 Swings, 89.7 Cont%

Tony Kemp - 79 PA, 151 Swings, 88.1 Cont%

Alex Bregman - 81 PA, 117 Swings, 88.0 Cont%

Mookie Betts - 82 PA, 129 Swings, 87.6 Cont%

Miguel Rojas - 69 PA, 127 Swings, 87.4 Cont%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks

Brendan Rodgers - 59 PA, 16.9 K%, 14.6 Brl%

Bryce Harper - 64 PA, 18.8 K%, 17.0 Brl%

Christian Walker - 75 PA, 18.7 K%, 19.2 Brl%

Jazz Chisholm - 69 PA, 18.8 K%, 15.7 Brl%

Jeimer Candelario - 72 PA, 19.4 K%, 14.5 Brl%

Josh Donaldson - 70 PA, 17.1 K%, 16.7 Brl%

Juan Soto - 86 PA, 15.1 K%, 16.9 Brl%

Justin Turner - 71 PA, 16.9 K%, 14.8 Brl%

Shohei Ohtani - 83 PA, 18.1 K%, 19.0 Brl%

Willson Contreras - 66 PA, 19.7 K%, 15.0 Brl%

Now to the paid stuff. For $5/month or $40/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to

Daily Projections (with DraftKings salaries & scores) Excel & a Tableau Dashboard)
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Daily hitter matchup ratings
Plate Discipline leaderboard
More Magic Formula Qualifiers
Pitch Mix and Velo Changes Tracker
Full daily and season-long pitcher and hitter data reports
Full access to my daily-updated algorithmic hitter and pitcher rankings
Offseason reviews & previews of every single fantasy-relevant player
More stuff added throughout the year as ideas come to me

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