MLB Daily Notes: Thursday, May 26
Everything went quite poorly for me on the DFS front yesterday, and of course that happened after I sent out the lineup for the first time, making myself look like a real ass!
Cristian Javier struck out nine Guardians last night, so he’s looking really strong now after setting into the rotation. That is back-to-back nine strikeout performances, and you probably could’ve gotten him for free at some point this fantasy season.
Kole Calhoun had another big game with a dinger and a steal. He’s really been something to see in May:
So was he cold in April? Is he hot in May? Are big games randomly distributed and in this one case they just happen to be clustered together by chance? When will this dude finally retire?
Only 12 qualified hitters are averaging more than 2.5 DraftKings points per plate appearance in May, and Calhoun is one of them.
If this hole “hot” business is legit, then that would open up quite an opportunity for me. I mean nobody has the chops I have in automating baseball stuff. I could easily write scripts to pick out hitters that are “getting hot”, and I’d certainly be on them before everyone else.
The great thing about making such claims is it’s completely unfalsifiable. If I say a guy is HOT, and then he goes zero for his next seventeen at-bats, I can shrug my shoulders and say “damn guess he stopped being hot!”. But look, I’m seemingly the only person thinking about this topic like I do… so maybe I should play to the market and go all-in on HOT. That will require updating the tagline on this blog, but I’ll gladly sell out for a few more dollars in my bank account - I’m not above any of that. I’ve got 7 kids we gotta eat by any means necessary!
THE HOT LIST
If all of this did exist, I would imagine a hitter that is “hot” would be making contact at a high rate, and would be seeing that contact be of great quality. The idea is that a “hot hitter” temporarily has an elevated ability to see the ball and get the barrel of the bat to it. Right? I mean correct me if I’m wrong, prognosticators - but that seems to be make sense to me.
So let’s freaking check! Who has the best hard-hit rates while making contact rate over 80% of the time over the last 10 days!
Jose Abreu (84% Contact%, 79% Hard Hit%)
Kyle Isbel (95%, 72%)
Vladimir Guerrero (85%, 67%)
Mookie Betts (83%, 67%
Aaron Judge (84%, 65%)
Mike Yastrzemski (84%, 61%)
Ryan McMahon (82%, 60%)
Ty France (81%, 57%)
Jeff McNeil (92%, 56%)
Ke’Bryan Hayes (89%, 54%)
So there ya go, this doesn’t help much! Isbel and Yas are maybe available in your league, so you could go nab them (I actually am picking up Isbel where I can, he’s in this week’s BREAKOUT HITTER PICKS).
I’m going to talk with Eric Samulski on his podcast tonight about all of this, so maybe he, as the HOTNESS EXPERT can help me fit some criteria to an algorithm and I can develop a HOT HITTER TRACKER and make a whole shitload of pennies on it!
Over the last month, the top per-inning pitchers (measured by DraftKings points) are:
Shane McClanahan (4.59 DK/IP)
Sonny Gray 4.42
Zack Wheeler 4.19
Eric Lauer 4.18
Dylan Cease 4.06
Justin Verlander 4.03
Freddy Peralta (RIP) 4.01
Drew Rasmussen 3.99
Tony Gonsolin 3.97
Justin Steele 3.88
Cristian Javier 3.85
Made it a top eleven to sneak Javier in there for the #timeliness.
K Prop Picks
Montas over 5.5 on DraftKings (-155)
Wacha over 3.5 on FanDuel (-128)
Lynch over 3.5 on FanDuel (-110)
Total Base Prop Picks
Alonso Rivas over 0.5 on DraftKings (-125)
Paul Goldschmidt over 1.5 on DraftKings (-105)
J.D. Martinez over 1.5 on DraftKings (-115)
Let’s get to the notes!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Aaron Ashby (MIL): 9.9 SwStr%, 34.1 CSW%
2. Cristian Javier (HOU): 20.8 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
3. Robbie Ray (SEA): 25.3 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
4. Rich Hill (BOS): 4.6 SwStr%, 32.3 CSW%
5. Lucas Giolito (CWS): 16.8 SwStr%, 31.7 CSW%
6. Tanner Houck (BOS): 17.5 SwStr%, 31.6 CSW%
7. Yu Darvish (SD): 12.0 SwStr%, 31.5 CSW%
8. Trevor Williams (NYM): 11.3 SwStr%, 30.2 CSW%
9. Erick Fedde (WSH): 12.2 SwStr%, 30.0 CSW%
10. Tyler Wells (BAL): 14.3 SwStr%, 29.9 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Cristian Javier - 5.67 IP - 83.5 JA Points
2. Robbie Ray - 6.0 IP - 76.0 JA Points
3. Dylan Bundy - 5.67 IP - 57.25 JA Points
4. Erick Fedde - 6.0 IP - 52.5 JA Points
5. Luis Castillo - 5.0 IP - 50.25 JA Points
6. Ryan Feltner - 5.0 IP - 50.25 JA Points
7. Lucas Giolito - 6.0 IP - 49.25 JA Points
8. JP Sears - 5.0 IP - 45.5 JA Points
9. Yu Darvish - 6.67 IP - 44.5 JA Points
10. Glenn Otto - 5.0 IP - 43.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 9.0 GS - 56.95 JA Points
2. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 7.0 GS - 53.37 JA Points
3. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 9.0 GS - 53.36 JA Points
4. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 9.0 GS - 52.37 JA Points
5. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 9.0 GS - 50.41 JA Points
6. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 8.0 GS - 49.99 JA Points
7. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 8.0 GS - 48.95 JA Points
8. Lucas Giolito (CWS) - 7.0 GS - 48.24 JA Points
9. Alex Cobb (SF) - 7.0 GS - 47.45 JA Points
10. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 9.0 GS - 47.23 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Ryan Feltner's SL velo (27 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 83.7
Tyler Wells's SL velo (28 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 88.2
Cal Quantrill's FC velo (31 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 88.8
Ryan Feltner's CU velo (10 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 77.0
Yu Darvish's SI velo (12 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 95.8
Mitch Keller's SL velo (19 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 84.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Cal Quantrill's SI usage (52.6%) up 14.3 points
Glenn Otto's SI usage (32.2%) up 11.7 points
JP Sears's SL usage (82.8%) up 21.3 points
Jakob Junis's CH usage (30.6%) up 19.1 points
Julio Urias's CH usage (28.7%) up 10.9 points
Lucas Giolito's SL usage (31.7%) up 13.2 points
Luis Castillo's SL usage (27.7%) up 12.6 points
Mitch Keller's SI usage (33.3%) up 33.1 points
Mitch Keller's SL usage (33.3%) up 12.6 points
Ranger Suarez's FF usage (26.1%) up 10.5 points
Reid Detmers's CH usage (24.7%) up 15.7 points
Robbie Ray's SL usage (54.7%) up 14.4 points
Tanner Houck's SI usage (45.6%) up 22.0 points
Tyler Wells's SL usage (36.4%) up 15.4 points
Yu Darvish's FC usage (46.3%) up 17.2 points
Zach Thompson's FC usage (46.2%) up 11.6 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 111 TBF, 37.1% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 86 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 100 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 86 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 101 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
Alex Cobb - 91 TBF, 31.7% CSW%
Tyler Anderson - 104 TBF, 31.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 86 TBF, 37.2% K%
Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Sonny Gray - 86 TBF, 34.9% K%
Tarik Skubal - 88 TBF, 34.1% K%
Robbie Ray - 126 TBF, 33.3% K%
Gerrit Cole - 111 TBF, 31.5% K%
Aaron Nola - 100 TBF, 30.0% K%
Hunter Greene - 94 TBF, 29.8% K%
Nick Martinez - 80 TBF, 28.8% K%
Logan Gilbert - 100 TBF, 28.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 111 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 88 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 86 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 86 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 126 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Tyler Anderson - 104 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 100 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Alex Cobb - 91 TBF, 23.1% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 103 TBF, 21.4% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Patrick Sandoval - 81 TBF, 71.4% GB%
Framber Valdez - 115 TBF, 61.6% GB%
Drew Rasmussen - 82 TBF, 61.4% GB%
Alex Cobb - 91 TBF, 61.3% GB%
Martin Perez - 82 TBF, 59.0% GB%
Adrian Houser - 93 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Walker Buehler - 99 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Aaron Sanchez - 83 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Joan Adon - 84 TBF, 56.4% GB%
Logan Webb - 96 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 100 TBF, 30.0 K%, 5.0 BB%, 45.3% GB%
Alex Cobb - 91 TBF, 27.5 K%, 4.4 BB%, 61.3% GB%
Frankie Montas - 57 TBF, 31.6 K%, 5.3 BB%, 61.1% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 64 TBF, 31.2 K%, 4.7 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Nick Martinez - 80 TBF, 28.8 K%, 7.5 BB%, 54.9% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 91 TBF, 35.2 K%, 5.5 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 88 TBF, 34.1 K%, 5.7 BB%, 47.2% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 73 TBF, 35.6 K%, 1.4 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Evan Longoria (SF) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Nelson Cruz (WSH) 3 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Dansby Swanson - 5.0 PA - 63.0 JA Points
2. Harold Castro - 4.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
3. Bryce Harper - 5.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
4. Joc Pederson - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
5. William Contreras - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
6. Austin Riley - 5.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
7. Orlando Arcia - 4.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
8. Trevor Larnach - 3.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
9. Evan Longoria - 4.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
10. Brian Anderson - 4.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 131.0 PA - 161.22 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 180.0 PA - 139.56 JA Points
3. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 175.0 PA - 138.51 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 190.0 PA - 119.37 JA Points
5. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 161.0 PA - 117.52 JA Points
6. Mike Trout (LAA) - 165.0 PA - 117.09 JA Points
7. Juan Soto (WSH) - 197.0 PA - 116.55 JA Points
8. Joc Pederson (SF) - 118.0 PA - 111.19 JA Points
9. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 181.0 PA - 109.39 JA Points
10. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 138.0 PA - 107.25 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 114.4mph - foul
Trevor Larnach (MIN) - 112.4mph - home_run
Austin Riley (ATL) - 112.4mph - single
Tyler Naquin (CIN) - 112.0mph - foul
Austin Riley (ATL) - 112.0mph - home_run
Ji-Man Choi (TB) - 111.3mph - foul
Javier Baez (DET) - 111.0mph - foul
Bryce Harper (PHI) - 111.0mph - single
Harold Ramirez (TB) - 110.2mph - home_run
Jake Burger (CWS) - 110.0mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Giancarlo Stanton - 66 PA, 42 BIP, 12 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 78 PA, 53 BIP, 13 Brls, 24.5 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 58 PA, 39 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 51 PA, 26 BIP, 6 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 81 PA, 58 BIP, 13 Brls, 22.4 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 63 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Kole Calhoun - 66 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Mike Trout - 72 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Trevor Story - 80 PA, 46 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.7 Brl%
Franmil Reyes - 58 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 57 PA, 82 Swings, 93.9 Cont%
Michael Brantley - 77 PA, 107 Swings, 92.5 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 60 PA, 91 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 70 PA, 151 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 84 PA, 142 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 77 PA, 168 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Wander Franco - 69 PA, 139 Swings, 87.8 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 57 PA, 97 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Abraham Toro - 53 PA, 87 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Myles Straw - 67 PA, 111 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Bryce Harper - 63 PA, 15.9 K%, 16.0 Brl%
Christian Walker - 78 PA, 17.9 K%, 15.1 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 58 PA, 17.2 K%, 23.1 Brl%
Josh Donaldson - 52 PA, 19.2 K%, 19.4 Brl%
Willson Contreras - 62 PA, 17.7 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Now to the paid stuff. For $5/month or $40/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to
Daily Projections (with DraftKings salaries & scores) Excel & a Tableau Dashboard)
Strikeout Prop Model Comparisons. Compares my K projection with FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook betting lines
My personal DraftKings player pools and cash lineups (not every day but when I have time!)
Daily hitter matchup ratings
Plate Discipline leaderboard
More Magic Formula Qualifiers
Pitch Mix and Velo Changes Tracker
Full daily and season-long pitcher and hitter data reports
Full access to my daily-updated algorithmic hitter and pitcher rankings
Offseason reviews & previews of every single fantasy-relevant player
More stuff added throughout the year as ideas come to me
If you’re seeing this, you’ve become a paid sub! Thanks so much for that! If you still don’t have access to any of the below links, please DM me on Twitter or email me and I’ll get you added ASAP.
Premium Features - SAMPLES
Here are some samples of what you get with the paid subscription, for anybody on the fence!
Today’s K Prop Comparison Sheet
JA Algorithm - Season Hitter Ranks
DraftKings Hitter Scoring Analysis
You get all of that updated daily (projections updated throughout the day as lineups come out) for just $5/month or $40/year - along with a ton more stuff.