MLB Daily Notes: Thursday, October 6
Well, it’s over! I put out one of these newsletters every day of the regular season with a three-day all-star break somewhere in the middle now. That is something like 180 notes post, a few dozen extra DFS pieces, and 100+ posts on RotoBaller all since April 7th.
It was a fun ride. I built up a reader base bigger than I imagined I would in one season, so I’m pretty pumped to see what the future seasons hold. A sincere thank you goes out to everyone who read and/or subscribed to my stuff this year. And a more sincere thank you goes out to everyone who paid me some money for it. You’re my favorites.
If you haven’t heard, I’m not slowing up in the offseason. Writing team reviews & previews is actually the most fun part of fantasy baseball writing, and I’m going full hog at it this offseason.
I’ll be going team by team breaking down every fantasy-relevant player with an eye on 2023. I will be creating pitcher & hitter rankings as I go as well, inserting each player into the lists as I see fit after the analysis. It’s a pretty good and fun way to do rankings. Paid subscribers will get access to all of that, so please hold on to your subscription if you want the full product this winter! I will be starting all of this as soon as next week, and there very well may be podcasts accompanying them.
Let’s put a bow on the regular season, here are the final 2022 champs for all of our favorite stats! Qualifying limits
15+ GS
400+ PA
Pitchers
CSW%
Shane McClanahan 34.2%
Gerrit Cole 34.0%
Aaron Nola 33.6%
Corbin Burnes 33.3#
Aaron Ashby 33.2%
SwStr%
Spencer Strider 17.4%
Shane McClanahan 17.0%
Kevin Gausman 16.4%
Gerrit Cole 16.4%
Corbin Burnes 16.4%
K%
Spencer Strider 38.3%
Carlos Rodon 33.4%
Shohei Ohtani 33.2%
Gerrit Cole 32.5%
Cristian Javier 32.3%
BB%
Corey Kluber 3.1%
Aaron Nola 3.5%
Lance Lynn 3.7%
Ross Stripling 3.7%
Kevin Gausman 3.9%
K-BB%
Spencer Strider 30.0%
Shohei Ohtani 26.5%
Max Scherzer 26.4%
Gerrit Cole 26.3%
Carlos Rodon 26.1%
xwOBA Allowed
Spencer Strider .240
Clayton Kershaw .245
Cristian Javier .246
Justin Verlander .250
Carlos Rodon .252
GB%
Framber Valdez 67.4%
Alex Cobb 62.8%
Logan Webb 57.8%
Aaron Ashby 57.4%
Ranger Suarez 56.0%
Hitters
Brl%
Aaron Judge 26.6%
Yordan Alvarez 21.1%
Kyle Schwaber 20.1%
Mike Trout 19.7%
Giancarlo Stanton 19.4%
Blast%
Aaron Judge 19.5%
Mike Trout 15.4%
Kyle Sschwarber 15.0%
Giancarlo Stanton 14.8%
Yordan Alvarez 13.2%
Contact%
Luis Arrez 92.9%
Steven Kwan 91.0%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 88.7%
Myles Straw 87.4%
Jose Igleasias 86.9%
xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez .464
Aaron Judge .460
Freddie Freeman .403
Juan Soto .403
Mike Trout .389
OPS (doesn’t include IBB)
Aaron Judge 1.099
Yordan Alvarez 1.018
Mike Trout .984
Paul Goldschmidt .978
Jose Altuve .912
SB
Jon Berti 41
Jorge Mateo 35
Cdric Mullins 34
Tommy Edman 32
Randy Arozarnea 32
HR
Aaron Judge 62
Kyle Schwarber 46
Pete Alonso 40
Mike Trout 40
Yordan Alvarez 37
That’s it and that’s all. We will likely be back Friday with some playoff slate stuff, I will run the projections & maybe throw out some bet ideas or something. The NFL content will roll on with Johny C’s Showdown analysis for tonight’s game. Here we go to your final MLB regular season report of the year!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Framber Valdez (HOU): 17.0 SwStr%, 37.5 CSW%
2. Domingo German (NYY): 18.6 SwStr%, 37.1 CSW%
3. Aaron Civale (CLE): 20.2 SwStr%, 35.7 CSW%
4. Vince Velasquez (CWS): 14.0 SwStr%, 35.1 CSW%
5. Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 19.4 SwStr%, 34.7 CSW%
6. Michael Plassmeyer (PHI): 14.4 SwStr%, 31.1 CSW%
7. Craig Stammen (SD): 15.9 SwStr%, 30.4 CSW%
8. Merrill Kelly (ARI): 19.3 SwStr%, 30.1 CSW%
9. Louie Varland (MIN): 9.0 SwStr%, 29.5 CSW%
10. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 18.8 SwStr%, 29.0 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Framber Valdez - 5.0 IP - 74.5 JA Points
2. Aaron Civale - 6.0 IP - 67.5 JA Points
3. Clayton Kershaw - 5.0 IP - 64.5 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani - 5.0 IP - 52.0 JA Points
5. Trevor Williams - 6.0 IP - 49.25 JA Points
6. Ken Waldichuk - 7.0 IP - 49.25 JA Points
7. Merrill Kelly - 5.67 IP - 48.75 JA Points
8. Domingo German - 4.33 IP - 48.0 JA Points
9. Corbin Burnes - 3.0 IP - 45.5 JA Points
10. Louie Varland - 5.0 IP - 45.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 20.0 GS - 57.89 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 32.0 GS - 51.37 JA Points
3. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 31.0 GS - 50.54 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 28.0 GS - 49.93 JA Points
5. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 32.0 GS - 48.38 JA Points
6. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 28.0 GS - 47.89 JA Points
7. Blake Snell (SD) - 24.0 GS - 47.48 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 23.0 GS - 47.02 JA Points
9. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 27.0 GS - 46.74 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 24.0 GS - 45.89 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Matthew Liberatore's CH velo (17 pitches) UP 2.8mph to 88.1
Graham Ashcraft's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 88.1
Elieser Hernandez's SL velo (18 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 82.3
Louie Varland's SL velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 82.0
Mitch White's CH velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 85.9
Vince Velasquez's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 83.2
Michael Plassmeyer's FF velo (49 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 88.9
Jonathan Heasley's FF velo (36 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 91.5
Josh Fleming's SI velo (56 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 89.5
Mitch White's FF velo (37 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 91.5
Jonathan Heasley's CH velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 82.6
Vince Velasquez's CU velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 79.3
Jonathan Heasley's SL velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 83.1
Jonathan Heasley's CU velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.9mph to 75.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adrian Sampson's SI usage (47.7%) up 16.0 points
Cole Sands's FS usage (33.9%) up 25.9 points
Craig Stammen's SL usage (31.9%) up 29.5 points
Davis Martin's FF usage (58.5%) up 12.9 points
Graham Ashcraft's FC usage (77.9%) up 25.9 points
Jackson Stephens's SI usage (33.9%) up 13.1 points
Ken Waldichuk's CU usage (18.0%) up 12.0 points
Louie Varland's FC usage (29.5%) up 14.5 points
Matthew Liberatore's FF usage (48.4%) up 16.7 points
Michael Plassmeyer's CH usage (34.7%) up 23.6 points
Mitch White's CH usage (16.4%) up 13.0 points
Nick Pivetta's FF usage (63.1%) up 12.5 points
Shohei Ohtani's SI usage (21.7%) up 18.5 points
Tyler Alexander's SI usage (30.4%) up 11.8 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 38.3% CSW%
Triston McKenzie - 99 TBF, 36.9% CSW%
Hunter Greene - 90 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 93 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Domingo German - 68 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Clayton Kershaw - 91 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 68 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 90 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Brandon Woodruff - 98 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Sandy Alcantara - 90 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Hunter Greene - 90 TBF, 41.1% K%
Brandon Woodruff - 98 TBF, 38.8% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 93 TBF, 37.6% K%
Justin Verlander - 84 TBF, 36.9% K%
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 91 TBF, 34.1% K%
Clayton Kershaw - 91 TBF, 33.0% K%
Michael Lorenzen - 85 TBF, 32.9% K%
Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 32.7% K%
Gerrit Cole - 90 TBF, 32.2% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Brandon Woodruff - 98 TBF, 33.7% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 90 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Justin Verlander - 84 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Jesus Luzardo - 93 TBF, 32.3% K-BB%
Triston McKenzie - 99 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 65 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Clayton Kershaw - 91 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Sandy Alcantara - 90 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Cobb - 67 TBF, 71.4% GB%
Framber Valdez - 98 TBF, 67.2% GB%
Shohei Ohtani - 91 TBF, 66.0% GB%
Lance McCullers Jr. - 75 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 84 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Eduardo Rodriguez - 105 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Kyle Wright - 70 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 68 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 102 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Mike Baumann - 74 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Civale - 83 TBF, 27.7 K%, 2.4 BB%, 53.4% GB%
Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 32.7 K%, 5.0 BB%, 48.4% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 91 TBF, 33.0 K%, 4.4 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 84 TBF, 28.6 K%, 4.8 BB%, 62.5% GB%
Emmanuel Clase - 43 TBF, 30.2 K%, 0.0 BB%, 58.6% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 90 TBF, 28.9 K%, 2.2 BB%, 55.0% GB%
Triston McKenzie - 99 TBF, 31.3 K%, 1.0 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 52 TBF, 28.8 K%, 1.9 BB%, 63.9% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Triston McKenzie - +8.1% CSW%, -7.1 BB%
Mitch Keller - +3.3% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Taijuan Walker - +2.8% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +4.6% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Sandy Alcantara - +5.2% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Jordan Lyles - +3.7% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Kyle Gibson - +4.7% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Reid Detmers - +2.1% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Logan Webb - +2.8% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Adbert Alzolay - +2.8% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Edward Cabrera - +3.7% CSW%, -6.3 BB%
Phil Maton - +5.4% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Gary Sanchez (MIN) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
J.D. Martinez (BOS) 3 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Jonah Heim (TEX) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Josh Rojas (ARI) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Matt Olson (ATL) 5 PA, 12 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Luis Torrens - 4.0 PA - 61.0 JA Points
2. Ji-Man Choi - 5.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
3. J.D. Martinez - 3.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman - 4.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
5. Keston Hiura - 4.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
6. Peyton Burdick - 4.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
7. Matt Olson - 5.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
8. Josh Rojas - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
9. Mike Trout - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
10. William Contreras - 5.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 673.0 PA - 149.06 JA Points
2. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 548.0 PA - 145.91 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (SD) - 654.0 PA - 127.89 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 688.0 PA - 119.01 JA Points
5. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 535.0 PA - 101.61 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 650.0 PA - 100.98 JA Points
7. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 555.0 PA - 100.68 JA Points
8. Alex Bregman (HOU) - 651.0 PA - 99.66 JA Points
9. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 596.0 PA - 90.4 JA Points
10. Nolan Arenado (STL) - 617.0 PA - 85.25 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 112.9mph - single
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 112.4mph - single
Jonah Heim (TEX) - 112.4mph - single
Mark Vientos (NYM) - 111.9mph - single
Eric Hosmer (BOS) - 111.5mph - single
Ji-Man Choi (TB) - 111.1mph - double
Jonathan Aranda (TB) - 111.0mph - nan
Keston Hiura (MIL) - 111.0mph - field_out
Gary Sanchez (MIN) - 110.7mph - double
Mike Trout (LAA) - 110.6mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 77 PA, 38 BIP, 13 Brls, 34.2 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 67 PA, 49 BIP, 13 Brls, 26.5 Brl%
Matt Olson - 75 PA, 44 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.7 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 60 PA, 27 BIP, 6 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 75 PA, 55 BIP, 12 Brls, 21.8 Brl%
Christopher Morel - 51 PA, 28 BIP, 6 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Gleyber Torres - 57 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Bryan De La Cruz - 76 PA, 55 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Jarred Kelenic - 58 PA, 36 BIP, 7 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 67 PA, 31 BIP, 6 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 77 PA, 0.496 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 67 PA, 0.494 xwOBA
Bryan De La Cruz - 76 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
Taylor Ward - 77 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
Teoscar Hernandez - 75 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
George Springer - 75 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
Jose Altuve - 61 PA, 0.417 xwOBA
Matt Olson - 75 PA, 0.41 xwOBA
Kyle Schwarber - 83 PA, 0.408 xwOBA
Salvador Perez - 65 PA, 0.403 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 64 PA, 106 Swings, 98.1 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 92 PA, 157 Swings, 91.7 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 55 PA, 82 Swings, 91.5 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 49 PA, 77 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 67 PA, 122 Swings, 88.5 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 73 PA, 119 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
A.J. Pollock - 66 PA, 107 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 62 PA, 121 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 53 PA, 89 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 67 PA, 124 Swings, 87.1 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Albert Pujols - 56 PA, 17.9 K%, 17.9 Brl%
George Springer - 75 PA, 17.3 K%, 14.3 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 70 PA, 20.0 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Jeremy Pena - 67 PA, 16.4 K%, 15.1 Brl%
Kolten Wong - 62 PA, 19.4 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Lars Nootbaar - 60 PA, 18.3 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Taylor Ward - 77 PA, 15.6 K%, 18.0 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 67 PA, 17.9 K%, 26.5 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Riley Greene - +4.7% Contact%, +3.8 mph exit velo, -6.4 Chase%
Kyle Schwarber - +15.6% Contact%, +8.7 mph exit velo, -5.8 Chase%
Nick Gordon - +11.1% Contact%, +4.2 mph exit velo, -10.3 Chase%
Gilberto Celestino - +7.0% Contact%, +7.1 mph exit velo, -4.8 Chase%
Jeff McNeil - +3.7% Contact%, +5.7 mph exit velo, -4.3 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Taylor Ward - 0.47 xwOBA, 19.6% Brl%, 78.4% Contact%, 19.1% Chase%, 13.8% K%
Triston Casas - 0.379 xwOBA, 10.0% Brl%, 77.3% Contact%, 19.4% Chase%, 20.4% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Bubba Thompson - 36.8% Whiff%, 84.6% Weak%, 0.975 Cold Rating
Jose Siri - 36.0% Whiff%, 80.0% Weak%, 0.955 Cold Rating
Matt Wallner - 40.0% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.941 Cold Rating
Josh Donaldson - 42.2% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.909 Cold Rating
Corbin Carroll - 31.0% Whiff%, 80.8% Weak%, 0.893 Cold Rating
David Villar - 39.7% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.868 Cold Rating
Eddie Rosario - 35.6% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.855 Cold Rating
Christian Yelich - 29.4% Whiff%, 79.3% Weak%, 0.849 Cold Rating
Dermis Garcia - 42.4% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.847 Cold Rating
Rodolfo Castro - 37.6% Whiff%, 65.5% Weak%, 0.807 Cold Rating
Now to the paid stuff. For $7/month or $70/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to
NFL Content
Projections, slate analysis, Tableau dashboards
MLB Offseason content
Team-by-team reviews and previews
My 2023 ranks
Continued access to the 2022 dashboards