MLB Daily Notes: Thursday, September 15
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
The NFL Dashboard is up and running, you’ll find the URL in the premium section of these notes (at the bottom). I did a 10-minute demo of what we have there currently yesterday, check that out here.
Pitchers pitched yesterday:
Even our boy Patrick Corbin had a strong start. Plenty of great starts last night, but one of them did not belong to David Peterson, who gave up five runs on three walks and two hits and didn’t make it out of the first innings. I’m guessing he absolutely murdered a bunch of playoff fantasy teams, so - my condolences to you if that happened.
Brayan Bello made a fool of me early on this year, but he’s pitched pretty well since getting his bearings.
First 3 GS: 24.6% CSW%, 9.1% SwStr%, 17.4% K%, 11.6% BB%, 64% GB%
Last 5 GS: 31.3% CSW%, 14.5% SwStr%, 25.2% K%, 9.3% BB%, 51% GB%
It looks like he’s benefited from using the sinker less often:
All three of the four-seamer, the changeup, and the slider have been used more often lately and it’s worked thus far. I wouldn’t be putting any chips on Bello this year, but he’s a pretty interesting guy for 2023 given the K% and GB% ability we have seen from him.
Nick Lodolo continues to pitch like an ace, despite giving up three earned runs (gave up a home run to Rodolfo Castro, it’s amazing what you can do when they take away your cell phone and you’re forced to focus on the game). A 41% CSW% and a 15.7% SwStr% yesterday. That brings his season line to this:
31.3% CSW%, 13.9% SwStr%, 30.3% K%, 8.0% BB%, 7.9% Brl%, .268 xwOBA
Such a stud, and the Reds are letting his pitch counts fly. I’ll be all over that guy next year.
Shout out to Carlos Rodon staying healthy this year, I did not think he could do it. He’s made 29 starts now with a 32.8% K% and a 7.3% BB%, really earning the money the Giants confidently gave him. I will still be way off of him next year as the price is certain to soar, but you have been pleasantly rewarded for taking him this year.
Bryce Harper is showing up here as COLD! Uh-oh! Since returning from the IL (67 PA):
.263/.373/.439
2 HR
23.9% K%
14.9% BB%
12.2% Brl%
67.6% Cont%
61% GB%
.335 xwOBA
Nothing there that’s super concerning. Striking out more than normal, but still not a ton - and the barrel rate is still high, just not as high as what we’re used to. The contact rate and ground-ball rate are a little surprising, but we’re talking about 70 PAs here. There’s some reason to believe he’s not going to be the elite hitter we know for the rest of the year coming back from that injury, but a .439 SLG is nothing to sneeze at and of course, it won’t be surprising if he leads the league in everything from here on.
Alrighty, we have a TNF Showdown analysis from Johnny C coming at you in a bit here, and I’ll include the optimal lineup from my projections at the bottom of that post (for paid subs only). We are three for three in cashing Showdown double-ups with that optimal lineup, so it will be fun to see how long we can keep that going.
On to the rest of the MLB report.
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 15.7 SwStr%, 40.2 CSW%
2. Carlos Rodon (SF): 21.1 SwStr%, 39.4 CSW%
3. Sonny Gray (MIN): 11.0 SwStr%, 37.4 CSW%
4. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 15.4 SwStr%, 36.9 CSW%
5. Cristian Javier (HOU): 15.6 SwStr%, 34.4 CSW%
6. Luis Castillo (SEA): 16.2 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
7. Josh Fleming (TB): 18.5 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
8. Roansy Contreras (PIT): 16.4 SwStr%, 32.7 CSW%
9. Michael Grove (LAD): 15.6 SwStr%, 32.5 CSW%
10. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 15.9 SwStr%, 31.8 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Nick Lodolo - 6.33 IP - 83.75 JA Points
2. Cristian Javier - 6.0 IP - 83.25 JA Points
3. Luis Castillo - 6.0 IP - 75.0 JA Points
4. Carlos Rodon - 4.67 IP - 69.25 JA Points
5. Sonny Gray - 7.0 IP - 63.75 JA Points
6. Brayan Bello - 5.0 IP - 60.5 JA Points
7. Kyle Gibson - 5.33 IP - 59.75 JA Points
8. Trevor Williams - 4.33 IP - 56.0 JA Points
9. Corbin Burnes - 7.0 IP - 53.5 JA Points
10. Charlie Morton - 5.33 IP - 51.0 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 19.0 GS - 57.58 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 28.0 GS - 52.67 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 24.0 GS - 51.93 JA Points
4. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 29.0 GS - 50.07 JA Points
5. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 24.0 GS - 49.94 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 28.0 GS - 48.84 JA Points
7. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 29.0 GS - 48.42 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 20.0 GS - 46.76 JA Points
9. Blake Snell (SD) - 20.0 GS - 45.6 JA Points
10. Lance Lynn (CWS) - 16.0 GS - 45.29 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Dane Dunning's SL velo (26 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 80.5
Carlos Rodon's SL velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 84.0
Roansy Contreras's SL velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 82.6
Carlos Rodon's FF velo (36 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 94.0
Drew Rasmussen's FC velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 88.7
Joey Wentz's FC velo (20 pitches) DOWN -3.1mph to 82.6
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Drew Rasmussen's SI usage (17.9%) up 16.4 points
Drew Smyly's SI usage (49.4%) up 13.3 points
Josh Fleming's CH usage (37.0%) up 20.5 points
Michael Grove's CU usage (36.4%) up 19.3 points
Mike Clevinger's CH usage (21.3%) up 11.0 points
Nestor Cortes's FF usage (60.0%) up 15.4 points
Nick Lodolo's CU usage (41.2%) up 11.6 points
Patrick Corbin's CH usage (21.7%) up 14.0 points
Patrick Sandoval's SL usage (44.4%) up 16.2 points
Roansy Contreras's SL usage (45.5%) up 12.1 points
Ross Stripling's SI usage (19.5%) up 12.7 points
Trevor Williams's SL usage (30.1%) up 17.1 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 95 TBF, 39.5% CSW%
Andrew Heaney - 67 TBF, 37.8% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 108 TBF, 36.5% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 100 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 106 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 90 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Jeffrey Springs - 84 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Paolo Espino - 71 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Nick Lodolo - 100 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Brandon Woodruff - 99 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 100 TBF, 41.0% K%
Carlos Rodon - 81 TBF, 38.3% K%
Jacob deGrom - 95 TBF, 37.9% K%
Zac Gallen - 68 TBF, 36.8% K%
Gerrit Cole - 106 TBF, 36.8% K%
Nick Lodolo - 100 TBF, 36.0% K%
Cristian Javier - 78 TBF, 34.6% K%
Blake Snell - 68 TBF, 33.8% K%
Luis Castillo - 101 TBF, 33.7% K%
Andrew Heaney - 67 TBF, 32.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 100 TBF, 36.0% K-BB%
Jacob deGrom - 95 TBF, 34.7% K-BB%
Nick Lodolo - 100 TBF, 34.0% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 68 TBF, 33.8% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 106 TBF, 30.2% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 101 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 29.5% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 99 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 90 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 97 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kyle Wright - 69 TBF, 68.9% GB%
Alex Cobb - 94 TBF, 62.9% GB%
Brady Singer - 76 TBF, 59.0% GB%
Framber Valdez - 94 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Jose Urena - 70 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 93 TBF, 55.3% GB%
Jordan Montgomery - 97 TBF, 54.9% GB%
Mitch Keller - 72 TBF, 54.3% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 94 TBF, 53.0% GB%
Martin Perez - 80 TBF, 52.7% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Andrew Heaney - 67 TBF, 32.8 K%, 4.5 BB%, 45.0% GB%
Brandon Woodruff - 99 TBF, 30.3 K%, 6.1 BB%, 45.2% GB%
Clarke Schmidt - 62 TBF, 29.0 K%, 3.2 BB%, 51.2% GB%
Drew Rasmussen - 86 TBF, 27.9 K%, 2.3 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Framber Valdez - 94 TBF, 28.7 K%, 5.3 BB%, 58.1% GB%
Jordan Hicks - 45 TBF, 31.1 K%, 4.4 BB%, 51.7% GB%
Luis Castillo - 101 TBF, 33.7 K%, 4.0 BB%, 52.5% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 100 TBF, 36.0 K%, 2.0 BB%, 48.3% GB%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 32.4 K%, 2.9 BB%, 47.1% GB%
Trevor Rogers - 70 TBF, 31.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Zac Gallen - 68 TBF, 36.8 K%, 2.9 BB%, 46.3% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Corbin Burnes - +2.3% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Luis Castillo - +2.0% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Spencer Strider - +3.6% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Framber Valdez - +2.1% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Ross Stripling - +2.3% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Chad Kuhl - +2.7% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Cristian Javier - +3.7% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Lance Lynn - +5.2% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Logan Webb - +2.3% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Jacob deGrom - +2.8% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Jose Suarez - +3.3% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Paolo Espino - +4.9% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Andrew Heaney - +7.2% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Corey Kluber - +2.7% CSW%, -5.7 BB%
Adam Oller - +4.9% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Sean Manaea - +2.1% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Multiple Barrels
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Jean Segura (PHI) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Ji-Man Choi (TB) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Marcus Semien (TEX) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ryan McMahon (COL) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Ryan O'Hearn (KC) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. J.T. Realmuto - 5.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
2. Jace Peterson - 4.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
3. J.D. Davis - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
4. Will Smith - 5.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
5. Bryce Harper - 5.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
6. Sean Murphy - 5.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
7. Riley Adams - 3.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
8. Gleyber Torres - 5.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
9. Julio Rodriguez - 4.0 PA - 38.0 JA Points
10. Oscar Gonzalez - 4.0 PA - 38.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 481.0 PA - 142.29 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 596.0 PA - 141.68 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (SD) - 577.0 PA - 133.52 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 615.0 PA - 119.54 JA Points
5. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 588.0 PA - 111.43 JA Points
6. Alex Bregman (HOU) - 578.0 PA - 104.15 JA Points
7. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 482.0 PA - 103.32 JA Points
8. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 527.0 PA - 103.3 JA Points
9. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 532.0 PA - 91.5 JA Points
10. Will Smith (LAD) - 505.0 PA - 91.49 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 113.4mph - double
Sean Murphy (OAK) - 112.6mph - field_out
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX) - 111.4mph - single
Anthony Santander (BAL) - 110.7mph - field_out
George Springer (TOR) - 110.4mph - single
Lars Nootbaar (STL) - 110.3mph - home_run
A.J. Pollock (CWS) - 110.2mph - field_out
Gleyber Torres (NYY) - 109.9mph - single
Jean Segura (PHI) - 109.7mph - field_out
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 109.7mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Ryan Mountcastle - 78 PA, 50 BIP, 13 Brls, 26.0 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 79 PA, 45 BIP, 11 Brls, 24.4 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 73 PA, 51 BIP, 12 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Oneil Cruz - 78 PA, 46 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.7 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 51 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 78 PA, 51 BIP, 11 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 52 PA, 24 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Justin Turner - 68 PA, 49 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.4 Brl%
Ryan McMahon - 60 PA, 36 BIP, 7 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 72 PA, 53 BIP, 10 Brls, 18.9 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 79 PA, 0.496 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 51 PA, 0.491 xwOBA
Eloy Jimenez - 72 PA, 0.472 xwOBA
Eduardo Escobar - 62 PA, 0.47 xwOBA
Justin Turner - 68 PA, 0.458 xwOBA
Yandy Diaz - 73 PA, 0.451 xwOBA
Danny Jansen - 50 PA, 0.447 xwOBA
Bo Bichette - 95 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 78 PA, 0.421 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 78 PA, 0.407 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Tony Kemp - 68 PA, 96 Swings, 92.7 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 68 PA, 96 Swings, 92.7 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 70 PA, 115 Swings, 92.2 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 76 PA, 141 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Santiago Espinal - 55 PA, 103 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 85 PA, 141 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 73 PA, 106 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 79 PA, 157 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Myles Straw - 57 PA, 97 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Brendan Donovan - 73 PA, 115 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Anthony Santander - 81 PA, 18.5 K%, 17.2 Brl%
Bo Bichette - 95 PA, 13.7 K%, 15.3 Brl%
Eduardo Escobar - 62 PA, 14.5 K%, 18.0 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 72 PA, 16.7 K%, 18.9 Brl%
Justin Turner - 68 PA, 14.7 K%, 20.4 Brl%
Seiya Suzuki - 80 PA, 20.0 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 51 PA, 11.8 K%, 21.6 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Aristides Aquino - +9.3% Contact%, +7.3 mph exit velo, -3.5 Chase%
Adolis Garcia - +3.1% Contact%, +5.1 mph exit velo, -5.7 Chase%
Rowdy Tellez - +6.9% Contact%, +3.8 mph exit velo, -9.0 Chase%
Jose Abreu - +4.4% Contact%, +4.3 mph exit velo, -10.6 Chase%
Luis Rengifo - +5.3% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -5.0 Chase%
Yandy Diaz - +6.6% Contact%, +4.3 mph exit velo, -5.0 Chase%
Taylor Ward - +4.1% Contact%, +3.9 mph exit velo, -5.5 Chase%
Yordan Alvarez - +11.5% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -10.2 Chase%
Cesar Hernandez - +4.4% Contact%, +3.0 mph exit velo, -4.4 Chase%
Spencer Torkelson - +5.0% Contact%, +7.8 mph exit velo, -10.9 Chase%
Tony Kemp - +3.9% Contact%, +6.0 mph exit velo, -11.2 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
None
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Cody Bellinger - 35.6% Whiff%, 76.5% Weak%, 0.947 Cold Rating
Mitch Haniger - 37.8% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.929 Cold Rating
Nick Pratto - 32.9% Whiff%, 78.9% Weak%, 0.927 Cold Rating
Bryce Harper - 35.2% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.915 Cold Rating
Tyler O'Neill - 37.1% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.914 Cold Rating
Jorge Mateo - 30.3% Whiff%, 85.2% Weak%, 0.894 Cold Rating
JJ Bleday - 34.9% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.893 Cold Rating
Oswaldo Cabrera - 35.5% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.881 Cold Rating
Jose Barrero - 41.4% Whiff%, 68.2% Weak%, 0.875 Cold Rating
Teoscar Hernandez - 40.4% Whiff%, 68.0% Weak%, 0.868 Cold Rating
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