MLB Daily Notes: Thursday, September 22
Playoff update
Things got worse yesterday. Clint got a fantastic start from Triston McKenzie and a good one from Robbie Ray, and I got Dustin Mayday’d. I’m still feeling just fine about R-HR-RBI, but I’m starting to question what other three categories I’ll find my way to win. The AVG and OBP gaps seem pretty insurmountable with half the week to go, and I have not done set myself up well with ERA and WHIP. That said, I’ve only thrown 12 innings so far, so we can pretty easily cut that ERA in half just today.
Today we have Gallen @ LAD, Verlander @ BAL, and Fried @ PHI. Three very good pitchers, but two in bad matchups.
Tomorrow is Springs vs. TOR, Nola vs. ATL, Ohtani @ MIN, J Gray vs. CLE, and maybe Brady Singer vs. SEA - no relief on the matchups at all, but at least a group of very good pitchers. I’m officially #NervousAF about losing.
Clint may do his part to meet me in the middle of the ratios by tonight starting these pitchers:
Hunter Greene vs. MIL
Hayden Wesneski @ PIT
This Wesneski thing could really blow up in Clint’s face. I mean the guy wasn’t even very good in AAA this year
Does Clint know that? I don’t know. He did pay me for a sub here and uses the dashboard, but I’m not sure how much play the MiLB dashies have gotten. The idea, to be sure, is that the Pirates are awful, which is true - but they’re better than all (most?) of the AAA lineups that Wesneski put up just a 3.60 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP against this year with a pretty mediocre 24% K%.
I don’t have qualms with the Hunter Greene thing, but he’s certainly a risk of a complete blowup given the problems with the long ball and the fact that the Brewers have a .433 SLG and a 9.3% Brl% against righties this year (third-best in both categories behind LAD and ATL).
Am I putting myself at risk of Clint reading all of this and benching these guys and winning the matchup because of it? Yes, but this is what I’ve been doing to myself all year long. Plus, Clint did snake a ton of the guys I recommended in the offseason in our draft, and every single one of them turned out terribly - so maybe I owe him one, or something.
That’s all the free time I have today, sorry to have wasted it all on a fantasy matchup you probably don’t care about. On to the report!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Triston McKenzie (CLE): 23.0 SwStr%, 46.0 CSW%
2. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 15.8 SwStr%, 41.6 CSW%
3. Roansy Contreras (PIT): 21.8 SwStr%, 40.2 CSW%
4. Luis Severino (NYY): 12.5 SwStr%, 37.5 CSW%
5. Logan Webb (SF): 12.1 SwStr%, 36.4 CSW%
6. Blake Snell (SD): 24.8 SwStr%, 34.2 CSW%
7. Miles Mikolas (STL): 16.2 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
8. Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU): 10.8 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
9. Dane Dunning (TEX): 11.1 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
10. Jordan Lyles (BAL): 10.6 SwStr%, 33.0 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Blake Snell - 7.0 IP - 117.5 JA Points
2. Triston McKenzie - 8.0 IP - 100.5 JA Points
3. Jesus Luzardo - 6.67 IP - 83.5 JA Points
4. Kevin Gausman - 5.67 IP - 66.5 JA Points
5. Miles Mikolas - 6.0 IP - 58.25 JA Points
6. Jordan Lyles - 9.0 IP - 57.5 JA Points
7. Roansy Contreras - 4.67 IP - 56.75 JA Points
8. Luis Severino - 5.0 IP - 50.5 JA Points
9. James Kaprielian - 7.0 IP - 49.5 JA Points
10. Lance McCullers Jr. - 7.0 IP - 49.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 20.0 GS - 57.89 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 29.0 GS - 51.93 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 26.0 GS - 50.62 JA Points
4. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 29.0 GS - 50.07 JA Points
5. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 25.0 GS - 50.04 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 29.0 GS - 48.52 JA Points
7. Blake Snell (SD) - 22.0 GS - 47.46 JA Points
8. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 30.0 GS - 47.37 JA Points
9. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 21.0 GS - 47.14 JA Points
10. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 24.0 GS - 45.29 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Jordan Lyles's FC velo (13 pitches) UP 3.4mph to 87.4
German Marquez's SL velo (23 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 89.8
Kevin Gausman's SL velo (15 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 86.5
James Kaprielian's CH velo (19 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 86.9
Zack Wheeler's FF velo (31 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 97.9
Marcus Stroman's SL velo (30 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 86.2
Zack Wheeler's SI velo (17 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 97.0
Chase Anderson's CH velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 82.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adrian Houser's FF usage (40.5%) up 24.8 points
Blake Snell's SL usage (34.2%) up 10.4 points
Bryce Elder's SI usage (52.7%) up 16.5 points
Corey Kluber's SI usage (38.6%) up 10.7 points
Dane Dunning's FC usage (25.0%) up 13.5 points
James Kaprielian's SI usage (39.1%) up 37.0 points
James Kaprielian's CH usage (20.7%) up 11.8 points
Jesus Luzardo's FF usage (40.6%) up 19.1 points
Jordan Lyles's FC usage (13.8%) up 11.6 points
Madison Bumgarner's CU usage (44.0%) up 26.0 points
Roansy Contreras's SL usage (48.3%) up 14.4 points
Taijuan Walker's CU usage (18.2%) up 10.2 points
Tucker Davidson's SL usage (55.2%) up 13.8 points
Zack Wheeler's FF usage (53.4%) up 11.3 points
Zack Wheeler's SI usage (29.3%) up 12.0 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 67 TBF, 38.2% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 73 TBF, 37.1% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 98 TBF, 36.5% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 106 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Paolo Espino - 72 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 94 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Logan Webb - 91 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Corey Kluber - 87 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 87 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Jeffrey Springs - 84 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 67 TBF, 46.3% K%
Spencer Strider - 98 TBF, 44.9% K%
Gerrit Cole - 73 TBF, 43.8% K%
Nick Lodolo - 96 TBF, 39.6% K%
Logan Gilbert - 90 TBF, 37.8% K%
Blake Snell - 93 TBF, 37.6% K%
Clayton Kershaw - 90 TBF, 32.2% K%
Zac Gallen - 69 TBF, 31.9% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 92 TBF, 31.5% K%
Yu Darvish - 98 TBF, 30.6% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 67 TBF, 44.8% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 98 TBF, 37.8% K-BB%
Nick Lodolo - 96 TBF, 35.4% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 73 TBF, 34.2% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 90 TBF, 32.2% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 93 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Clayton Kershaw - 90 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 107 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 69 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 105 TBF, 24.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kyle Wright - 68 TBF, 65.9% GB%
Framber Valdez - 87 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Alex Cobb - 73 TBF, 62.0% GB%
Brady Singer - 74 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 96 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Jose Urena - 73 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 68 TBF, 54.0% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 106 TBF, 52.1% GB%
Zack Greinke - 68 TBF, 51.7% GB%
Daniel Lynch - 83 TBF, 51.7% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Brandon Woodruff - 106 TBF, 28.3 K%, 5.7 BB%, 48.5% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 80 TBF, 28.8 K%, 7.5 BB%, 49.0% GB%
Clarke Schmidt - 52 TBF, 28.8 K%, 1.9 BB%, 54.3% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 90 TBF, 32.2 K%, 4.4 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Framber Valdez - 87 TBF, 29.9 K%, 6.9 BB%, 63.6% GB%
George Kirby - 54 TBF, 29.6 K%, 1.9 BB%, 45.9% GB%
Jacob deGrom - 67 TBF, 46.3 K%, 1.5 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Luis Castillo - 99 TBF, 28.3 K%, 5.1 BB%, 51.6% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 96 TBF, 39.6 K%, 4.2 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Shane Bieber - 107 TBF, 29.0 K%, 2.8 BB%, 47.9% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Triston McKenzie - +2.7% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Blake Snell - +2.9% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Logan Webb - +3.5% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Framber Valdez - +3.6% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Dylan Bundy - +2.1% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Jose Suarez - +3.3% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Mitch Keller - +3.7% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Chad Kuhl - +3.6% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Clarke Schmidt - +6.9% CSW%, -7.8 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Gleyber Torres (NYY) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
MJ Melendez (KC) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Gleyber Torres - 5.0 PA - 71.0 JA Points
2. Josh Naylor - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
3. Willy Adames - 3.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
4. MJ Melendez - 4.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
5. Nick Fortes - 4.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
6. Ramon Urias - 4.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
7. Joey Meneses - 4.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
8. Carlos Correa - 4.0 PA - 36.0 JA Points
9. Kyle Stowers - 4.0 PA - 35.0 JA Points
10. Dalton Guthrie - 3.0 PA - 33.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 620.0 PA - 149.1 JA Points
2. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 506.0 PA - 149.01 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (SD) - 603.0 PA - 132.74 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 642.0 PA - 120.87 JA Points
5. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 613.0 PA - 109.95 JA Points
6. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 493.0 PA - 104.58 JA Points
7. Alex Bregman (HOU) - 602.0 PA - 101.93 JA Points
8. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 546.0 PA - 101.39 JA Points
9. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 557.0 PA - 89.41 JA Points
10. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 561.0 PA - 86.56 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 112.8mph - single
Rene Pinto (TB) - 111.3mph - double
Carlos Correa (MIN) - 110.8mph - double
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 110.6mph - home_run
Patrick Wisdom (CHC) - 110.3mph - home_run
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 110.1mph - field_out
Mike Trout (LAA) - 110.1mph - single
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 109.8mph - single
Eloy Jimenez (CWS) - 109.8mph - double
Ildemaro Vargas (WSH) - 109.4mph - foul
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 75 PA, 46 BIP, 16 Brls, 34.8 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 73 PA, 49 BIP, 15 Brls, 30.6 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 65 PA, 49 BIP, 15 Brls, 30.6 Brl%
Oneil Cruz - 78 PA, 39 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.6 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 62 PA, 43 BIP, 11 Brls, 25.6 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 50 PA, 25 BIP, 6 Brls, 24.0 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 53 PA, 38 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.7 Brl%
Seth Brown - 68 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%
Max Muncy - 62 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 78 PA, 56 BIP, 11 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Yordan Alvarez - 65 PA, 0.554 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 75 PA, 0.545 xwOBA
Freddie Freeman - 76 PA, 0.462 xwOBA
Bo Bichette - 92 PA, 0.442 xwOBA
Eloy Jimenez - 78 PA, 0.44 xwOBA
Ryan Mountcastle - 73 PA, 0.439 xwOBA
Willy Adames - 86 PA, 0.438 xwOBA
Eduardo Escobar - 78 PA, 0.437 xwOBA
Carlos Santana - 58 PA, 0.431 xwOBA
Justin Turner - 68 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 63 PA, 90 Swings, 94.4 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 73 PA, 149 Swings, 93.3 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 68 PA, 126 Swings, 92.9 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 98 PA, 165 Swings, 92.1 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 66 PA, 102 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Myles Straw - 79 PA, 114 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Wander Franco - 52 PA, 93 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Santiago Espinal - 51 PA, 88 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 62 PA, 103 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 88 PA, 161 Swings, 87.0 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Adolis Garcia - 71 PA, 19.7 K%, 18.0 Brl%
Carlos Correa - 89 PA, 19.1 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Eduardo Escobar - 78 PA, 16.7 K%, 16.9 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 78 PA, 19.2 K%, 19.6 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 53 PA, 18.9 K%, 23.7 Brl%
Freddie Freeman - 76 PA, 14.5 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Kyle Tucker - 78 PA, 12.8 K%, 14.1 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 65 PA, 12.3 K%, 30.6 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Jeremy Pena - +6.2% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -5.3 Chase%
Ian Happ - +12.5% Contact%, +3.0 mph exit velo, -4.1 Chase%
J.P. Crawford - +7.1% Contact%, +6.2 mph exit velo, -6.2 Chase%
Ha-Seong Kim - +7.7% Contact%, +6.4 mph exit velo, -16.3 Chase%
Corey Seager - +4.1% Contact%, +3.8 mph exit velo, -6.9 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Freddie Freeman - 0.509 xwOBA, 21.1% Brl%, 80.4% Contact%, 22.0% Chase%, 13.5% K%
Gleyber Torres - 0.43 xwOBA, 18.2% Brl%, 78.7% Contact%, 24.0% Chase%, 19.0% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Bubba Thompson - 37.1% Whiff%, 76.9% Weak%, 0.965 Cold Rating
Franmil Reyes - 42.0% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.944 Cold Rating
Dermis Garcia - 45.6% Whiff%, 70.6% Weak%, 0.938 Cold Rating
Austin Hedges - 35.4% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.91 Cold Rating
Daulton Varsho - 37.9% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.899 Cold Rating
Josh Donaldson - 32.4% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.858 Cold Rating
Bryce Harper - 34.2% Whiff%, 69.0% Weak%, 0.854 Cold Rating
JJ Bleday - 30.9% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.846 Cold Rating
Hunter Renfroe - 27.2% Whiff%, 79.4% Weak%, 0.846 Cold Rating
Lewin Diaz - 28.4% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.837 Cold Rating
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