MLB Daily Notes: Tuesday, April 26
Episode #8 of the podcast will be out later today, so give that a look. Here’s a Spotify widget that I think should update with the newest episode once it comes out, but I can’t make any promises!
It was a pretty slow day for baseball yesterday with just seven games. Corbin Burnes nearly topped Clayton Kershaw’s season-high single-game JA score of 109.5 points, but he fell just short with a 106.75 mark as he generated 26 whiffs and not a single well-hit ball.
We’ve seen a pitcher generate 20 or more whiffs nine times this year, here is the list: Burnes (2), Rodon, Scherzer, Gausman, McClanahan, Kershaw, Ohtani, Wright
The other standout of the night was Taylor Ward, who led off for the Angels and pulled off two homers on two barrels on eight swings. He whiffed four times as well but got it done when he was making contact. For the year he has an impressive .367/.525/.700 line with an 18% Brl%, a 20% K%, and a 25% BB%. He’s checking all of the boxes right now, but that’s in just 40 plate appearances.
I had a Taylor Ward fling last summer, as I went recommending him for awhile and even picked him up in a couple of leagues. It didn’t turn out very well, but this guy certainly has some flashes of greatness, and who knows, maybe he can be a legitimate contributor this year.
Two new additions to the premium content today!
First, we have the plate discipline scoreboard. I explain it in this Twitter thread, so click that for details
So basically I’m considering swing rates and chase rates relative to the league context, and then getting one score to see how well each hitter is doing at swinging at strikes and letting balls go by.
Free for everybody is the scoreboard as of yesterday 4/25, you can access it here.
The second new thing is daily team hitter vs. pitcher splits matchup scores. For every pitcher pitching today, we give each side of the plate a score based on how that pitcher performs against each side. Yesterday’s biggest boost was left-handed batters against Michael Lorenzen, who gives up an 88% boost in performance (based on pitcher JA scores, note that I’m not saying they have an 88% greater chance to homer or something like that).
This is a good way for us to judge which hitters have the best and worst matchups. A bit surprising yesterday was the 79% mark Rockies’ righties had. Gibson isn’t typically a scary pitcher to start hitters against, but he’s really handled righties well over his last 30 starts, so those righties yesterday earned a bad score. Hope it helps!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 24.5 SwStr%, 38.7 CSW%
2. Max Scherzer (NYM): 20.8 SwStr%, 34.7 CSW%
3. Kyle Gibson (PHI): 18.1 SwStr%, 34.0 CSW%
4. Dane Dunning (TEX): 11.4 SwStr%, 31.8 CSW%
5. Walker Buehler (LAD): 13.0 SwStr%, 30.6 CSW%
6. Tyler Gilbert (ARI): 18.0 SwStr%, 30.0 CSW%
7. Kyle Freeland (COL): 10.9 SwStr%, 29.7 CSW%
8. Jose Berrios (TOR): 13.5 SwStr%, 28.1 CSW%
9. Shane Bieber (CLE): 13.0 SwStr%, 28.0 CSW%
10. Michael Lorenzen (LAA): 12.9 SwStr%, 26.9 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Corbin Burnes - 6.67 IP - 106.75 JA Points
2. Max Scherzer - 7.0 IP - 98.75 JA Points
3. Walker Buehler - 9.0 IP - 80.5 JA Points
4. Kyle Gibson - 5.67 IP - 46.0 JA Points
5. Framber Valdez - 6.0 IP - 45.5 JA Points
6. Miles Mikolas - 7.0 IP - 38.0 JA Points
7. Dane Dunning - 5.67 IP - 36.75 JA Points
8. Kyle Freeland - 5.0 IP - 32.5 JA Points
9. Nathan Eovaldi - 7.0 IP - 31.75 JA Points
10. Michael Lorenzen - 6.0 IP - 27.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 3.0 GS - 63.31 JA Points
2. Kyle Wright (ATL) - 3.0 GS - 62.57 JA Points
3. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 3.0 GS - 60.66 JA Points
4. Nestor Cortes (NYY) - 3.0 GS - 57.29 JA Points
5. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 4.0 GS - 55.57 JA Points
6. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 4.0 GS - 54.52 JA Points
7. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 3.0 GS - 52.68 JA Points
8. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 3.0 GS - 52.5 JA Points
9. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) - 3.0 GS - 51.99 JA Points
10. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 4.0 GS - 48.9 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Framber Valdez's CU velo (18 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 79.9
Framber Valdez's CH velo (12 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 89.4
Nathan Eovaldi's CU velo (22 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 80.2
Michael Lorenzen's CH velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 85.5
Michael Lorenzen's FF velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 94.9
Michael Lorenzen's SL velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 82.8
Dane Dunning's SI velo (30 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 88.1
Dane Dunning's SL velo (33 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 77.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Dane Dunning's SL usage (37.5%) up 15.4 points
Kyle Freeland's SL usage (32.7%) up 10.2 points
Kyle Gibson's SL usage (31.9%) up 15.4 points
Michael Lorenzen's SI usage (36.6%) up 19.3 points
Michael Lorenzen's SL usage (26.9%) up 11.6 points
Nathan Eovaldi's CU usage (30.6%) up 11.5 points
Shane Bieber's FC usage (15.0%) up 11.5 points
Tyler Gilbert's KC usage (20.0%) up 12.3 points
Walker Buehler's KC usage (25.9%) up 13.0 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane McClanahan - 86 TBF, 38.9% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 65 TBF, 36.5% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 69 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Kyle Wright - 66 TBF, 36.1% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 73 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 95 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 64 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Max Scherzer - 94 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Carlos Carrasco - 66 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 74 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Carlos Rodon - 65 TBF, 44.6% K%
Kyle Wright - 66 TBF, 39.4% K%
Shane McClanahan - 86 TBF, 36.0% K%
Max Scherzer - 94 TBF, 35.1% K%
Corbin Burnes - 95 TBF, 34.7% K%
Eric Lauer - 67 TBF, 34.3% K%
Joe Musgrove - 69 TBF, 30.4% K%
Carlos Carrasco - 66 TBF, 30.3% K%
Kevin Gausman - 73 TBF, 30.1% K%
Aaron Nola - 84 TBF, 29.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kyle Wright - 66 TBF, 36.4% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 65 TBF, 35.4% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 86 TBF, 30.2% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 73 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%
Joe Musgrove - 69 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Carlos Carrasco - 66 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%
Eric Lauer - 67 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 95 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 94 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 84 TBF, 23.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 87 TBF, 71.4% GB%
Logan Webb - 99 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Matt Brash - 64 TBF, 61.5% GB%
Aaron Nola - 84 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Noah Syndergaard - 67 TBF, 58.0% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 86 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 90 TBF, 55.0% GB%
Bryce Elder - 69 TBF, 54.3% GB%
Brad Keller - 68 TBF, 53.1% GB%
German Marquez - 75 TBF, 52.5% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 84 TBF, 29.8 K%, 6.0 BB%, 58.8% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 70 TBF, 28.6 K%, 5.7 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 61 TBF, 37.7 K%, 0.0 BB%, 48.6% GB%
Josh Fleming - 45 TBF, 28.9 K%, 4.4 BB%, 66.7% GB%
Keegan Thompson - 47 TBF, 29.8 K%, 6.4 BB%, 62.1% GB%
Kyle Wright - 66 TBF, 39.4 K%, 3.0 BB%, 48.6% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 89 TBF, 27.0 K%, 3.4 BB%, 45.9% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 69 TBF, 27.5 K%, 7.2 BB%, 46.5% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 86 TBF, 36.0 K%, 5.8 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Wil Crowe - 51 TBF, 31.4 K%, 7.8 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Multiple Barrels - Yesterday
Bryce Harper (PHI) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Taylor Ward (LAA) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Will Smith (LAD) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Will Smith - 4.0 PA - 60.0 JA Points
2. Corey Seager - 5.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points
3. Taylor Ward - 4.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
4. Aledmys Diaz - 4.0 PA - 32.0 JA Points
5. Alec Bohm - 4.0 PA - 32.0 JA Points
6. Bryce Harper - 4.0 PA - 28.0 JA Points
7. Ryan McMahon - 3.0 PA - 28.0 JA Points
8. Luis Gonzalez - 4.0 PA - 28.0 JA Points
9. Randal Grichuk - 4.0 PA - 25.0 JA Points
10. Mark Canha - 4.0 PA - 23.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 40.0 PA - 184.0 JA Points
2. Owen Miller (CLE) - 39.0 PA - 178.46 JA Points
3. Ty France (SEA) - 73.0 PA - 150.14 JA Points
4. Matt Olson (ATL) - 76.0 PA - 147.89 JA Points
5. Joc Pederson (SF) - 51.0 PA - 147.45 JA Points
6. Ji-Man Choi (TB) - 47.0 PA - 142.98 JA Points
7. Andrew Vaughn (CWS) - 44.0 PA - 142.73 JA Points
8. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 69.0 PA - 142.03 JA Points
9. Will Smith (LAD) - 46.0 PA - 135.65 JA Points
10. Mike Trout (LAA) - 55.0 PA - 133.82 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls - Yesterday
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 111.4mph - foul
Ryan McMahon (COL) - 111.4mph - double
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 110.8mph - field_out
Bryce Harper (PHI) - 110.6mph - home_run
Aledmys Diaz (HOU) - 110.1mph - single
J.D. Martinez (BOS) - 109.8mph - double
Amed Rosario (CLE) - 109.7mph - double
Joc Pederson (SF) - 109.6mph - home_run
Bo Bichette (TOR) - 109.5mph - field_out
Luis Gonzalez (SF) - 109.2mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 66 PA, 42 BIP, 11 Brls, 26.2 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 51 PA, 38 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.7 Brl%
Jo Adell - 53 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Seiya Suzuki - 61 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 61 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Hunter Dozier - 52 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Salvador Perez - 56 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Mike Trout - 55 PA, 36 BIP, 7 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 55 PA, 26 BIP, 5 Brls, 19.2 Brl%
Jose Abreu - 58 PA, 38 BIP, 7 Brls, 18.4 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 57 PA, 92 Swings, 91.3 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 53 PA, 101 Swings, 91.1 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 51 PA, 79 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Joey Wendle - 48 PA, 105 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 51 PA, 76 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Nick Madrigal - 52 PA, 81 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 52 PA, 78 Swings, 88.5 Cont%
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 59 PA, 97 Swings, 86.6 Cont%
Myles Straw - 71 PA, 112 Swings, 86.6 Cont%
Austin Nola - 57 PA, 92 Swings, 85.9 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Anthony Rizzo - 67 PA, 14.9 K%, 17.4 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 51 PA, 19.6 K%, 23.7 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 71 PA, 15.5 K%, 17.9 Brl%
Mike Trout - 55 PA, 18.2 K%, 19.4 Brl%
Tim Anderson - 49 PA, 14.3 K%, 17.1 Brl%
Yasmani Grandal - 48 PA, 18.8 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Top Hitter Boosts Today
I’ll give you all a peek at the new feature for a couple of days, here are your top splits boosts for today’s offenses.
Lyles and Keller have both pitched better recently, but over their last 30 starts lefties have just murked them. Fire up your Yankees and Brewers lefties, except Joey Gallo, probably. lmao!
Okay now to the paid stuff. For $5/month or $40/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to
Daily Projections (with DraftKings salaries & scores) Excel & a Tableau Dashboard)
Weekly Projections for next week (this is updated on weekends for the following full week)
Daily hitter matchup ratings
Plate Discipline leaderboard
Pitch Mix and Velo Changes Tracker
Full daily and season-long pitcher and hitter data reports
Full access to my daily-updated algorithmic hitter and pitcher rankings
More stuff added every week