MLB Daily Notes: Tuesday, August 16
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
For the first time in my life, I am currently working from home and wearing jeans. I bought some this weekend that actually fit and don’t require a belt, and I must say - I feel much better about myself wearing them. This will surely wear off in a matter of days and I’ll be back to the shorts. But it’s okay because almost nobody I’m not related to ever sees my body below the shoulders.
Happy back-to-school day (or week) to all the parents out there. I’m not sure if this is a cause for celebration or not, I’m guessing parents have mixed feelings about that. My kids aren’t in school yet so I have no thoughts on it - but I am a little bit excited for my daughter to get going, she’ll start preschool a year from now. Anyways, I am wishing all your kids the best in school and sports and all the activities this year. Yes, this is a wide-reaching blanket well-wish, which really negates the impact of it… some stranger on the Internet telling you and hundreds of other people something nice can only do so much - so I’ll do this - I do not wish the best for kids of parents that don’t read these daily notes. So there you go, if my wishes come true - I just hooked your kids up BIG TIME.
Aaron Civale went back to school against the Tigers yesterday. A 45.1% CSW% and a 22.0% SwStr%!?
He had 18 whiffs on 82 pitches
That’s a big old SPIKE on the whiffs plot:
Is it just because of the Tigers? I mean the Tigers are bad, but they’re hardly uniquely awful in terms of swing-and-miss.
2022 Contact% - Bottom 5 Teams
#30 ATL 71.3%
#29 TEX 71.4%
#28 LAA 72.5%
#27 DET 72.6%
#26 CHC 72.9%
Civale did have a slight change in the profile - exchanging sinkers for cutters. That is certainly a way to get more whiffs since the cutter is an inherently tougher pitch to connect with, but it will often come at the expense of giving up more line drives and fly balls.
“I checked JonPGH’s dashboard last night and saw that the Tigers have a horrible 5.9% Brl% and have only homered 69 times this year, maybe I’ll just scrap the sinker this time since they’re unlikely to punish my cutter. Man that JonPGH guy is so cool, principled, and handsome.”
~ Aaron Civale, probably
Top JA SPs since the all-star break (3 GS minimum)
Jacob deGrom
Gerrit Cole
Carlos Rodon
Spencer Strider
Blake Snell
Reid Detmers
Corbin Burnes
Jesus Luzardo
Shohei Ohtani
Jordan Montgomery
Interesting names near the bottom: Taijuan Walker, Paul Blackburn, Keegan Thompson, Logan Gilbert, Jose Berrios, Johnny Cueto, Frankie Montas, Miles MIkolas, Eric Lauer
Noah Syndergaard had a decent start giving up three runs over seven innings and beating the Reds. He averaged 88.5 mph with his slider. Prior to this start, he averaged 83.9 mph.
Slider velocity with the Angels: 83.5 mph
Slider velocity with the Phillies: 87.0 mph
These last two starts were the highest velocities on the pitch of the year by a good step - I think it’s pretty likely this is a conscious change rather than a result of him being more healthy. It’s possible the Phillies just advised him to throw that shit harder. His sinker velocity hasn’t changed, so that’s my evidence for this.
So, is it working? Not really? He has just a 9.7% SwStr% and a 23.6% CSW% on his 72 sliders with the Phillies. With the Angels those marks were 10.0% and 33.9%. He’s throwing the pitch more often as well (28% vs. 20%). The early signs aren’t pointing to him being a better pitcher now, but we like to spot these changes in pitcher profiles - so there’s a good one for you all to chew on.
I really do think if you’ve read these notes this year, you have been way ahead of the curve on a lot of things. I’ve been wrong a lot [see my lap on Blake Snell yesterday], but we’ve gotten a lot of guys right as well - INCLUDING VINNIE PASQUANTINO.
A few weeks ago I dedicated a few paragraphs to praising Vinnie P’s upcoming resurgence. It took a little longer than I thought, but man this guy has been insane lately.
Since the break: .309/.367/.556, 5 HR, 11.3% Brl%, 12.2% K%, 86.2% Contact%
For the season: .261/.341/.458, 8 HR, 12.4% Brl%, 14.5% K%, 85.9% Contact%
He’s one of the biggest standouts on the Contact% vs. Barrel% plot
I really encourage you to be playing around with that scatter plot weekly. It really is a very simple and very powerful way to spot really good hitters. If you’re making contact on a high percentage of your swings and a high percentage of that contact are going for barrels - you will produce big numbers.
If we look at since the All-Star break:
The standouts:
Aaron Judge
Yordan Alvarez
Austin Riley
Max Muncy
Matt Chapman
Rowdy Tellez
Anthony Santander
You can also just do this on the main “hitters” tab by setting the dials something like this:
And that’ll give you a list of all the hitters meeting that criteria. If we’re looking for hitters with Brl% above 12% and contact% above 77% since the break:
That should bring our attention to A.J. Pollock, Eric Hosmer, Danny Jansen, and Emmanuel Rivera. But I’ll leave it to you to go further than that.
Added some fun stuff to the MLB & MiLB Hitter Dashboard. We have a “Park Dash” tab now that can show you the numbers on all of the different ballparks:
It’s really not useful at all, but man this dashboard is fun to mess around with.
It looks like nobody in AAA, AA, A, or A+ played last night. This is a thing that happens at those levels - just full days off league-wide. All of the minor league players of the day are in rookie ball, which makes this an extremely uninteresting segment today.
Hitters:
Pitchers:
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Aaron Civale (CLE): 22.0 SwStr%, 45.1 CSW%
2. Noah Syndergaard (PHI): 14.3 SwStr%, 36.4 CSW%
3. Ryan Yarbrough (TB): 15.5 SwStr%, 34.5 CSW%
4. Danny Young (ATL): 0.0 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
5. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 13.4 SwStr%, 33.0 CSW%
6. Josiah Gray (WSH): 10.5 SwStr%, 32.4 CSW%
7. Joe Musgrove (SD): 8.9 SwStr%, 32.1 CSW%
8. Jose Urquidy (HOU): 13.8 SwStr%, 30.9 CSW%
9. Bryan Garcia (DET): 9.1 SwStr%, 30.7 CSW%
10. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 11.1 SwStr%, 30.6 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Aaron Civale - 6.0 IP - 84.75 JA Points
2. Luis Castillo - 6.0 IP - 63.75 JA Points
3. Jose Urquidy - 7.33 IP - 56.0 JA Points
4. Ryan Yarbrough - 4.33 IP - 54.25 JA Points
5. Joe Musgrove - 6.0 IP - 53.5 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole - 6.0 IP - 50.5 JA Points
7. Josiah Gray - 6.0 IP - 50.25 JA Points
8. Sandy Alcantara - 7.0 IP - 48.0 JA Points
9. Shohei Ohtani - 6.0 IP - 42.75 JA Points
10. Spencer Strider - 5.0 IP - 42.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 14.0 GS - 56.04 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 23.0 GS - 53.56 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 22.0 GS - 52.34 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 20.0 GS - 51.88 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 23.0 GS - 51.69 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 24.0 GS - 48.73 JA Points
7. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 23.0 GS - 48.13 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 16.0 GS - 48.06 JA Points
9. Blake Snell (SD) - 15.0 GS - 46.74 JA Points
10. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 17.0 GS - 44.97 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Noah Syndergaard's SL velo (27 pitches) UP 4.6mph to 88.5
Julio Urias's CU velo (31 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 83.0
Jose Urquidy's CU velo (21 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 79.4
Kyle Bradish's SL velo (32 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 87.7
Yusei Kikuchi's SL velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 85.2
Bryan Garcia's SI velo (49 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 91.9
Carlos Carrasco's SL velo (20 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 82.8
James Kaprielian's SL velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 82.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Civale's CU usage (43.9%) up 16.7 points
Adonis Medina's CH usage (46.0%) up 31.3 points
Carlos Carrasco's SL usage (39.2%) up 14.1 points
Danny Young's SL usage (68.6%) up 18.6 points
Drew Hutchison's SI usage (20.8%) up 10.8 points
Johnny Cueto's FF usage (27.0%) up 12.2 points
Jose Urquidy's SL usage (24.5%) up 13.1 points
Luis Castillo's SI usage (36.7%) up 12.4 points
Madison Bumgarner's FF usage (43.2%) up 11.6 points
Marcus Stroman's SL usage (36.3%) up 12.0 points
Noah Syndergaard's SL usage (35.1%) up 14.2 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 103 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Corey Kluber - 79 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Brady Singer - 102 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Adam Wainwright - 107 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 94 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 81 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
Michael Kopech - 87 TBF, 32.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 37.8% K%
Spencer Strider - 81 TBF, 34.6% K%
Corbin Burnes - 97 TBF, 33.0% K%
Alex Cobb - 95 TBF, 32.6% K%
Carlos Rodon - 92 TBF, 32.6% K%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 31.6% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 31.3% K%
Yu Darvish - 103 TBF, 31.1% K%
Lance Lynn - 95 TBF, 29.5% K%
George Kirby - 83 TBF, 28.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 90 TBF, 34.4% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 92 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 81 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 95 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 103 TBF, 27.2% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 99 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 97 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
George Kirby - 83 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 82 TBF, 72.7% GB%
Logan Webb - 110 TBF, 66.2% GB%
Antonio Senzatela - 103 TBF, 63.0% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 108 TBF, 62.8% GB%
Zac Gallen - 91 TBF, 59.3% GB%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Dane Dunning - 90 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Kyle Wright - 78 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Alex Cobb - 95 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 110 TBF, 55.3% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Corbin Burnes - 97 TBF, 33.0 K%, 7.2 BB%, 54.5% GB%
George Kirby - 83 TBF, 28.9 K%, 3.6 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Shane Bieber - 105 TBF, 28.6 K%, 2.9 BB%, 58.3% GB%
Yu Darvish - 103 TBF, 31.1 K%, 3.9 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Adam Wainwright - +2.7% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Triston McKenzie - +2.0% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Lance Lynn - +2.7% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Corey Kluber - +3.1% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Justin Steele - +2.5% CSW%, -6.7 BB%
Austin Voth - +4.1% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.3% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Spencer Strider - +2.0% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Jacob deGrom - +2.7% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Andre Pallante - +2.4% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Erasmo Ramirez - +4.2% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Andres Gimenez (CLE) 8 PA, 15 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Ian Happ (CHC) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Jake Fraley (CIN) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jesse Winker (SEA) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Kerry Carpenter (DET) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
William Contreras (ATL) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Christian Walker - 4.0 PA - 72.0 JA Points
2. Ian Happ - 4.0 PA - 66.0 JA Points
3. Jeff McNeil - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
4. Kerry Carpenter - 4.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
5. Miguel Rojas - 4.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
6. Jake Fraley - 4.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
7. Jesse Winker - 5.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
8. Marcus Semien - 4.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
9. Nick Allen - 4.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
10. William Contreras - 5.0 PA - 38.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 406.0 PA - 144.83 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 488.0 PA - 140.98 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (SD) - 487.0 PA - 136.67 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 504.0 PA - 113.25 JA Points
5. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 378.0 PA - 111.53 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 468.0 PA - 111.37 JA Points
7. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
8. Will Smith (LAD) - 409.0 PA - 102.89 JA Points
9. D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) - 457.0 PA - 99.34 JA Points
10. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 427.0 PA - 97.99 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
J.D. Davis (SF) - 112.7mph - double
Joey Bart (SF) - 111.7mph - single
Christian Walker (ARI) - 111.1mph - home_run
Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 110.9mph - home_run
Anthony Santander (BAL) - 110.6mph - grounded_into_double_play
Jonathan Schoop (DET) - 110.5mph - foul
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 110.2mph - double
William Contreras (ATL) - 110.1mph - home_run
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 110.0mph - grounded_into_double_play
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 109.7mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 82 PA, 43 BIP, 13 Brls, 30.2 Brl%
Max Muncy - 66 PA, 40 BIP, 11 Brls, 27.5 Brl%
Paul DeJong - 56 PA, 32 BIP, 8 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Byron Buxton - 57 PA, 30 BIP, 7 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 65 PA, 39 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 68 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 48 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Anthony Rizzo - 55 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 78 PA, 51 BIP, 11 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Nick Pratto - 66 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 82 PA, 0.525 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 80 PA, 0.453 xwOBA
Alex Bregman - 75 PA, 0.438 xwOBA
Nolan Gorman - 48 PA, 0.432 xwOBA
Byron Buxton - 57 PA, 0.428 xwOBA
Anthony Rizzo - 55 PA, 0.427 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 78 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
Rowdy Tellez - 60 PA, 0.418 xwOBA
Matt Chapman - 68 PA, 0.416 xwOBA
Daniel Vogelbach - 63 PA, 0.414 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 71 PA, 127 Swings, 92.9 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 78 PA, 136 Swings, 92.6 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 90 PA, 135 Swings, 91.9 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 73 PA, 136 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 54 PA, 87 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 70 PA, 115 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 73 PA, 136 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 60 PA, 105 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 69 PA, 108 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Myles Straw - 68 PA, 108 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Anthony Santander - 82 PA, 15.9 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Austin Riley - 85 PA, 18.8 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Christian Walker - 78 PA, 16.7 K%, 15.8 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 67 PA, 19.4 K%, 18.8 Brl%
Jesse Winker - 62 PA, 19.4 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Juan Soto - 80 PA, 11.2 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Nolan Arenado - 63 PA, 15.9 K%, 15.2 Brl%
Seth Brown - 55 PA, 18.2 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Will Smith - 75 PA, 16.0 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Alex Bregman - +5.7% Contact%, +3.0 mph exit velo, -3.6 Chase%
Anthony Santander - +6.1% Contact%, +6.0 mph exit velo, -10.2 Chase%
Mitch Haniger - +3.4% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -4.1 Chase%
Ketel Marte - +7.9% Contact%, +3.8 mph exit velo, -10.0 Chase%
Jeff McNeil - +8.2% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -10.1 Chase%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - +5.2% Contact%, +7.6 mph exit velo, -3.8 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Christian Walker - 0.432 xwOBA, 17.8% Brl%, 84.7% Contact%, 22.9% Chase%, 10.3% K%
Juan Soto - 0.493 xwOBA, 15.8% Brl%, 85.4% Contact%, 14.0% Chase%, 10.2% K%
Paul Goldschmidt - 0.482 xwOBA, 14.7% Brl%, 79.1% Contact%, 19.5% Chase%, 13.7% K%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 0.393 xwOBA, 14.0% Brl%, 79.5% Contact%, 24.6% Chase%, 17.5% K%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 0.393 xwOBA, 14.0% Brl%, 87.5% Contact%, 20.9% Chase%, 11.3% K%
Will Smith - 0.393 xwOBA, 15.8% Brl%, 80.3% Contact%, 24.1% Chase%, 12.5% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Josh Bell - 34.4% Whiff%, 81.8% Weak%, 0.932 Cold Rating
Bubba Thompson - 30.5% Whiff%, 90.5% Weak%, 0.892 Cold Rating
Aristides Aquino - 34.4% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.881 Cold Rating
Jonathan Schoop - 41.5% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.877 Cold Rating
William Contreras - 36.4% Whiff%, 68.6% Weak%, 0.873 Cold Rating
Jarren Duran - 32.4% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.871 Cold Rating
Marcell Ozuna - 34.7% Whiff%, 68.8% Weak%, 0.859 Cold Rating
Eugenio Suarez - 31.7% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.856 Cold Rating
Oneil Cruz - 50.0% Whiff%, 65.2% Weak%, 0.855 Cold Rating
Max Stassi - 28.4% Whiff%, 80.8% Weak%, 0.849 Cold Rating
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