MLB Daily Notes: Tuesday, August 30
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
The Savant data was late coming out and I have one of these mornings with several hours of meetings for work so we’re very late on the notes here, and I have another meeting now and then need to do other things so I can’t even really get into it.
It wasn’t a big day of baseball anyways with just a handful of games. Corbin Burnes stunk against the Pirates:
and the Cardinals scored 13 runs without a hit from Paul Goldschmidt. I crushed in DFS though, so that was awesome. Here is the report, I’ll be back later with a DFS picks piece since it’s Tuesday!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 13.7 SwStr%, 32.4 CSW%
2. Eric Stout (PIT): 6.0 SwStr%, 32.0 CSW%
3. Jose Berrios (TOR): 12.7 SwStr%, 31.4 CSW%
4. Pablo Lopez (MIA): 12.1 SwStr%, 31.3 CSW%
5. Frankie Montas (NYY): 16.5 SwStr%, 29.7 CSW%
6. Ranger Suarez (PHI): 6.8 SwStr%, 29.7 CSW%
7. Jose Suarez (LAA): 14.9 SwStr%, 28.7 CSW%
8. Brayan Bello (BOS): 10.7 SwStr%, 27.4 CSW%
9. Dylan Bundy (MIN): 11.6 SwStr%, 25.6 CSW%
10. Madison Bumgarner (ARI): 8.9 SwStr%, 25.3 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Jose Suarez - 6.0 IP - 53.75 JA Points
2. Frankie Montas - 6.0 IP - 47.5 JA Points
3. Jose Berrios - 5.0 IP - 43.25 JA Points
4. Corbin Burnes - 5.67 IP - 40.5 JA Points
5. Pablo Lopez - 6.0 IP - 37.25 JA Points
6. Dylan Bundy - 4.67 IP - 32.25 JA Points
7. Tanner Scott - 1.0 IP - 28.25 JA Points
8. Ranger Suarez - 3.67 IP - 21.75 JA Points
9. Zack Thompson - 2.0 IP - 21.0 JA Points
10. Andrew Bellatti - 1.67 IP - 18.75 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 16.0 GS - 55.78 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 24.0 GS - 51.93 JA Points
3. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 26.0 GS - 51.66 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 22.0 GS - 50.86 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 26.0 GS - 49.14 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 26.0 GS - 48.61 JA Points
7. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 26.0 GS - 48.08 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 19.0 GS - 47.14 JA Points
9. Blake Snell (SD) - 17.0 GS - 46.3 JA Points
10. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 20.0 GS - 45.24 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Jose Suarez's SI velo (10 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 93.0
Jose Suarez's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 82.1
Madison Bumgarner's CU velo (24 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 80.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Brayan Bello's FF usage (29.8%) up 11.9 points
Eric Stout's SL usage (64.0%) up 14.0 points
Javier Assad's SI usage (32.5%) up 13.7 points
Jose Berrios's SI usage (34.3%) up 10.2 points
Madison Bumgarner's CU usage (30.4%) up 12.3 points
Mike Clevinger's FF usage (49.4%) up 13.3 points
Miles Mikolas's SI usage (36.2%) up 13.8 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Nick Lodolo - 100 TBF, 43.0% CSW%
Drew Smyly - 92 TBF, 42.1% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 86 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Matt Manning - 74 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 82 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Jakob Junis - 89 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Yu Darvish - 84 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 106 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 76 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 35.4% K%
Aaron Nola - 86 TBF, 32.6% K%
Carlos Rodon - 93 TBF, 32.3% K%
Justin Steele - 90 TBF, 32.2% K%
Justin Verlander - 84 TBF, 32.1% K%
Robbie Ray - 98 TBF, 31.6% K%
Julio Urias - 91 TBF, 30.8% K%
Brandon Woodruff - 92 TBF, 30.4% K%
Jeffrey Springs - 89 TBF, 30.3% K%
Luis Castillo - 103 TBF, 30.1% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 86 TBF, 30.2% K-BB%
Justin Verlander - 84 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 93 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 103 TBF, 25.2% K-BB%
Brandon Woodruff - 92 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
George Kirby - 76 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Jordan Montgomery - 97 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Justin Steele - 90 TBF, 24.4% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 95 TBF, 24.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 82 TBF, 70.6% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 76 TBF, 68.1% GB%
Logan Webb - 76 TBF, 66.0% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 98 TBF, 65.8% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 96 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Shane Bieber - 106 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Alex Cobb - 95 TBF, 59.1% GB%
Dean Kremer - 95 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Zach Davies - 88 TBF, 54.5% GB%
George Kirby - 76 TBF, 53.8% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 35.4 K%, 7.3 BB%, 46.3% GB%
George Kirby - 76 TBF, 27.6 K%, 2.6 BB%, 53.8% GB%
JT Brubaker - 72 TBF, 29.2 K%, 4.2 BB%, 59.6% GB%
Jeffrey Springs - 89 TBF, 30.3 K%, 7.9 BB%, 50.9% GB%
Jordan Montgomery - 97 TBF, 27.8 K%, 3.1 BB%, 48.5% GB%
Justin Steele - 90 TBF, 32.2 K%, 7.8 BB%, 53.7% GB%
Justin Verlander - 84 TBF, 32.1 K%, 3.6 BB%, 46.3% GB%
Kyle Wright - 72 TBF, 27.8 K%, 4.2 BB%, 55.1% GB%
Luis Castillo - 103 TBF, 30.1 K%, 4.9 BB%, 49.2% GB%
Ross Stripling - 70 TBF, 27.1 K%, 1.4 BB%, 54.0% GB%
Ryan Yarbrough - 70 TBF, 27.1 K%, 5.7 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Zac Gallen - 71 TBF, 33.8 K%, 5.6 BB%, 55.8% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Dean Kremer - +4.1% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Jakob Junis - +2.5% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Aaron Nola - +3.5% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Matt Manning - +7.9% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
JT Brubaker - +4.8% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Zac Gallen - +3.6% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Ross Stripling - +4.7% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Michael Wacha - +4.0% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Lance Lynn - +4.6% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Andrew Heaney - +4.8% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Chase De Jong - +4.8% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Max Fried - +3.3% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Bryce Harper (PHI) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Garrett Mitchell (MIL) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Tyler O'Neill (STL) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Willy Adames - 5.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
2. Oneil Cruz - 5.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
3. Josh Bell - 4.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
4. Tyler O'Neill - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
5. Bryce Harper - 5.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
6. Garrett Mitchell - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
7. Kyle Schwarber - 5.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
8. Brandon Crawford - 4.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
9. Christian Walker - 5.0 PA - 38.0 JA Points
10. Albert Pujols - 5.0 PA - 36.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Juan Soto (SD) - 527.0 PA - 138.06 JA Points
2. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 445.0 PA - 135.46 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 540.0 PA - 135.33 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 561.0 PA - 112.37 JA Points
5. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 532.0 PA - 110.75 JA Points
6. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 431.0 PA - 106.08 JA Points
7. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 286.0 PA - 104.76 JA Points
8. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 475.0 PA - 99.71 JA Points
9. Alex Bregman (HOU) - 524.0 PA - 99.01 JA Points
10. Will Smith (LAD) - 455.0 PA - 97.23 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 117.5mph - home_run
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 113.8mph - field_out
Bryce Harper (PHI) - 113.6mph - double
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 113.2mph - field_out
Willson Contreras (CHC) - 113.1mph - double
Bryce Harper (PHI) - 113.0mph - double
Franchy Cordero (BOS) - 112.7mph - single
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 112.6mph - single
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 111.9mph - single
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 111.7mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Nick Pratto - 57 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Evan Longoria - 46 PA, 28 BIP, 6 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 PA, 43 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.9 Brl%
Albert Pujols - 53 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Michael Massey - 65 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 68 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 67 PA, 31 BIP, 6 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Matt Olson - 84 PA, 68 BIP, 13 Brls, 19.1 Brl%
Luke Voit - 58 PA, 32 BIP, 6 Brls, 18.8 Brl%
Juan Soto - 70 PA, 44 BIP, 8 Brls, 18.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Albert Pujols - 53 PA, 0.5 xwOBA
Vinnie Pasquantino - 54 PA, 0.457 xwOBA
Matt Olson - 84 PA, 0.455 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 70 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
Nathaniel Lowe - 82 PA, 0.44 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 77 PA, 0.438 xwOBA
Alex Bregman - 80 PA, 0.433 xwOBA
Rowdy Tellez - 68 PA, 0.427 xwOBA
Yandy Diaz - 78 PA, 0.413 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 84 PA, 0.407 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 75 PA, 124 Swings, 96.0 Cont%
Nick Madrigal - 71 PA, 126 Swings, 94.4 Cont%
Brendan Donovan - 56 PA, 85 Swings, 91.8 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 65 PA, 109 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Isaac Paredes - 54 PA, 95 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 82 PA, 122 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 60 PA, 109 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Ketel Marte - 51 PA, 89 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 85 PA, 147 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 61 PA, 101 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Albert Pujols - 53 PA, 15.1 K%, 19.5 Brl%
Emmanuel Rivera - 71 PA, 18.3 K%, 17.0 Brl%
Juan Soto - 70 PA, 15.7 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Lars Nootbaar - 91 PA, 16.5 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Matt Olson - 84 PA, 11.9 K%, 19.1 Brl%
Nathaniel Lowe - 82 PA, 18.3 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 54 PA, 7.4 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 82 PA, 11.0 K%, 15.9 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Bo Bichette - +3.6% Contact%, +7.1 mph exit velo, -8.3 Chase%
Tyler O'Neill - +8.0% Contact%, +3.2 mph exit velo, -15.2 Chase%
Christian Yelich - +6.7% Contact%, +6.0 mph exit velo, -4.8 Chase%
Josh Bell - +8.3% Contact%, +5.4 mph exit velo, -12.7 Chase%
Nolan Arenado - +7.4% Contact%, +4.9 mph exit velo, -8.2 Chase%
Matt Olson - +18.9% Contact%, +7.0 mph exit velo, -5.0 Chase%
Nathaniel Lowe - +12.0% Contact%, +10.3 mph exit velo, -6.0 Chase%
Bobby Witt Jr. - +8.5% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -12.3 Chase%
Jeimer Candelario - +3.5% Contact%, +4.2 mph exit velo, -9.4 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Corey Seager - 0.415 xwOBA, 11.1% Brl%, 82.1% Contact%, 22.9% Chase%, 10.5% K%
Lars Nootbaar - 0.38 xwOBA, 14.3% Brl%, 78.3% Contact%, 21.4% Chase%, 16.2% K%
Matt Olson - 0.471 xwOBA, 19.6% Brl%, 81.0% Contact%, 20.4% Chase%, 12.3% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Jeremy Pena - 42.7% Whiff%, 76.7% Weak%, 0.964 Cold Rating
Paul DeJong - 46.2% Whiff%, 76.5% Weak%, 0.961 Cold Rating
Aristides Aquino - 40.2% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.942 Cold Rating
Jose Barrero - 35.2% Whiff%, 77.3% Weak%, 0.93 Cold Rating
Michael A. Taylor - 34.0% Whiff%, 76.9% Weak%, 0.911 Cold Rating
Amed Rosario - 32.9% Whiff%, 78.6% Weak%, 0.905 Cold Rating
Jon Berti - 34.8% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.897 Cold Rating
P.J. Higgins - 35.9% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.873 Cold Rating
Michael Massey - 38.1% Whiff%, 68.2% Weak%, 0.859 Cold Rating
Christopher Morel - 36.1% Whiff%, 68.2% Weak%, 0.843 Cold Rating
Now to the paid stuff. For $7/month or $70/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to
NFL Dashboards, Notes, Reports, Write-Ups, and Projections!!
Minor League Stat Dashboards
Daily Projections (with DraftKings salaries & scores) Excel & a Tableau Dashboard)
Strikeout Prop Model Comparisons. Compares my K projection with FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook betting lines
My personal DraftKings player pools and cash lineups (not every day but when I have time!)
Daily hitter matchup ratings
Plate Discipline leaderboard
More Magic Formula Qualifiers
Pitch Mix and Velo Changes Tracker
Full daily and season-long pitcher and hitter data reports
Full access to my daily-updated algorithmic hitter and pitcher rankings
Offseason reviews & previews of every single fantasy-relevant player
More stuff added throughout the year as ideas come to me
Premium Features - SAMPLES
Here are some samples of what you get with the paid subscription, for anybody on the fence!
SAMPLE K Prop Comparison Sheet
SAMPLE JA Algorithm - Season Hitter Ranks
SAMPLE DraftKings Hitter Scoring Analysis
You get all of that updated daily (projections updated throughout the day as lineups come out) for just $7/month or $70/year - along with a ton more stuff.