MLB Daily Notes: Tuesday, August 9
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
There were no classified documents to be found in Los Angeles last night, as the Angels played the Athletics last night and gave Ohtani a day off. This resulted in just about the worst collection of Major League hitters you’ll ever find. The Angels scored a run in the top of the first and the game finished 1-0 in their favor. Cole Irvin and Jose Suarez both pitched well, although maybe that’s not even true - they just put up good stats - but it would have been tough not to against who they were facing. I mean holy f-word. Since July 1st, the Angels have a .598 OPS and the Athletics have a .666 OPS. Those numbers are second and seventh-worst in the league, which is actually surprising. Here are the bottom 10 teams since July 1.
MIA .588
LAA .598
DET .616
PIT .620
WSH .646
CHC .652
OAK .666
CIN .669
BOS .670
SF .678
Since we only had seven games last night I can show you the full SP stats, ordered by CSW%:
Logan Gilbert got thrashed and continues to struggle. Here are some numbers on him:
Season : 26.4% CSW%, 11.9% SwStr%, 22.2% K%, 6.4% BB%, 7.5% Brl%
April : 25.7% CSW%, 11.5% SwStr%, 25.9% K%, 4.7% BB%, 1.7% Brl%
May : 27.6% CSW%, 12.7% SwStr%, 25.3% K%, 8.7% BB%, 6.2% Brl%
June : 26.4% CSW%, 12.2% SwStr%, 21.8% K%, 4.8% BB%, 9.3% Brl%
Jul-Aug: 25.8% CSW%, 11.2% SwStr%, 17.9% K%, 6.5% BB%, 9.5% Brl%
Zac Gallen was awesome, as he should have been, against the Pirates - it’s been a funky year for him and his next start is in Coors - but at least we got one gem out of him here.
Matt Chapman hit another dinger last night. Since June 1st, his .925 ops is 13th-best in baseball. He’s hitting .276/.348/.577 with 16 homers, a 17.9% Brl%, and a .365 xwOBA in that time. He does have a bad 29% K% but everything else has been making up for that. Only six hitters have hit more homers than him (Judge, Schwarber, Riley, Alvarez, Hoskins, Alonso) over this sample, so if you bought low on Chapman when I told you to, your offensive stats have really experienced some inflation.
My guy JC on Twitter has been betting strikeout props using my projections, and he’s been hugely profitable - so he says! Here’s what he DM’d me this morning:
So that means when my projection is different than the betting prop by 1.25 or more strikeouts, that bet has been a winner 69 times and a loser 48 times. That’s a 64% win percentage. I suppose that doesn’t necessarily mean profit given the juiced lines and the rake, but at the very least you’d be having some fun without losing money. Check out the K Prop sheet in the premium links below if you haven’t yet, here’s a sneak preview:
Lots of crazy shit happening in the world right now, eh? I don’t know how much the average person pays attention to politics and whatnot, but I pay a good amount of attention and have to say - it’s quite entertaining.
It can be really maddening at times too, I guess, but that doesn’t really happen to me because I for some reason have this disposition where nothing really bothers me. If you can get yourself to the point where you can be into politics without letting it affect your life or your mood, it’s quite a fun little “hobby” to follow. The way they run stuff, the things they prioritize, the arguments they make - they’re all just so comical, I mean there are so many things I could go on about but I won’t. I think the bigger problem is that the population lets them get away with it. Politicians think people like us are really, really dumb - and we’ve given them little reason to change their minds.
I’ve read plenty of books about the history of US politics and doing that kind of calms you down too. We have been fighting, panicking, and losing our minds about the same stuff for hundreds of years now, and look - everything is still okay. It’s better than okay, life is amazing.
Alrighty, you’ve had enough of that, here’s the report:
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Chris Bassitt (NYM): 11.4 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
2. Blake Snell (SD): 17.5 SwStr%, 33.0 CSW%
3. Jose Suarez (LAA): 14.4 SwStr%, 32.0 CSW%
4. Cole Irvin (OAK): 17.0 SwStr%, 31.9 CSW%
5. Zac Gallen (ARI): 16.9 SwStr%, 31.5 CSW%
6. Tyler Beede (PIT): 12.3 SwStr%, 29.8 CSW%
7. Justin Dunn (CIN): 11.4 SwStr%, 28.6 CSW%
8. Alex Wood (SF): 12.4 SwStr%, 28.1 CSW%
9. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 7.1 SwStr%, 25.0 CSW%
10. Jameson Taillon (NYY): 10.2 SwStr%, 24.1 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Cole Irvin - 8.0 IP - 73.75 JA Points
2. Chris Bassitt - 8.0 IP - 71.5 JA Points
3. Zac Gallen - 6.67 IP - 64.5 JA Points
4. Jose Suarez - 7.0 IP - 62.5 JA Points
5. Blake Snell - 5.67 IP - 56.5 JA Points
6. Alex Wood - 6.33 IP - 53.0 JA Points
7. Nick Martinez - 2.33 IP - 31.25 JA Points
8. Jameson Taillon - 7.0 IP - 30.75 JA Points
9. Tyler Beede - 3.33 IP - 22.75 JA Points
10. Ryan Hendrix - 1.0 IP - 22.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 13 GS - 56.81 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 22 GS - 54.39 JA Points
3. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 18 GS - 53.98 JA Points
4. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 21 GS - 52.71 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 22 GS - 52.14 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 22 GS - 49.01 JA Points
7. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 15 GS - 48.45 JA Points
8. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 22 GS - 47.72 JA Points
9. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 16 GS - 46.61 JA Points
10. Braxton Garrett (MIA) - 11 GS - 44.65 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Anibal Sanchez's FF velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 89.4
Jameson Taillon's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 84.6
Keegan Thompson's SI velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 91.7
Zac Gallen's CH velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 84.9
Anibal Sanchez's FC velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 86.7
Yusei Kikuchi's SL velo (19 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 84.7
Anibal Sanchez's SL velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 81.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Anibal Sanchez's FF usage (24.2%) up 12.1 points
Chris Bassitt's SI usage (42.1%) up 11.8 points
Cole Irvin's CU usage (29.8%) up 10.5 points
Jose Suarez's SL usage (25.8%) up 11.3 points
Keegan Thompson's SI usage (15.3%) up 10.3 points
Tyler Beede's CU usage (35.1%) up 27.0 points
Zac Gallen's CU usage (30.3%) up 10.9 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 78 TBF, 37.5% CSW%
Brady Singer - 75 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 77 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 75 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Aaron Ashby - 73 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 72 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Chris Bassitt - 114 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Reid Detmers - 72 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Brandon Woodruff - 76 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 38.2% K%
Reid Detmers - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 33.3% K%
Brady Singer - 75 TBF, 33.3% K%
Carlos Rodon - 91 TBF, 33.0% K%
Corbin Burnes - 94 TBF, 33.0% K%
Alex Cobb - 76 TBF, 32.9% K%
Blake Snell - 89 TBF, 32.6% K%
Yu Darvish - 104 TBF, 30.8% K%
Gerrit Cole - 78 TBF, 29.5% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 35.5% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 91 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Brady Singer - 75 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 89 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 104 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Reid Detmers - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 78 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%
Alex Cobb - 76 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 74 TBF, 24.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 83 TBF, 70.2% GB%
Antonio Senzatela - 101 TBF, 61.5% GB%
Logan Webb - 105 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 77 TBF, 60.4% GB%
Zac Gallen - 92 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Alex Cobb - 76 TBF, 59.1% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 114 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 98 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Max Fried - 79 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Martin Perez - 79 TBF, 54.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Cobb - 76 TBF, 32.9 K%, 7.9 BB%, 59.1% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 69 TBF, 37.7 K%, 5.8 BB%, 47.2% GB%
George Kirby - 60 TBF, 31.7 K%, 3.3 BB%, 45.9% GB%
Lance Lynn - 68 TBF, 32.4 K%, 1.5 BB%, 48.9% GB%
Zac Gallen - 92 TBF, 27.2 K%, 6.5 BB%, 60.0% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Triston McKenzie - +3.3% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Gerrit Cole - +3.9% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Merrill Kelly - +3.6% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Shohei Ohtani - +3.0% CSW%, -5.0 BB%
Brady Singer - +4.0% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +3.9% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.0% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
Lance Lynn - +3.3% CSW%, -4.9 BB%
Joe Ryan - +5.5% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Andre Pallante - +2.1% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Multiple Barrels
None
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Matt Chapman - 4.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
2. Alejandro Kirk - 5.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
3. Josh Donaldson - 5.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
4. Ryan Mountcastle - 4.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
5. Anthony Santander - 4.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
6. Mitch Haniger - 4.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
7. Starling Marte - 4.0 PA - 32.0 JA Points
8. Joey Meneses - 1.0 PA - 31.0 JA Points
9. Nelson Cruz - 4.0 PA - 28.0 JA Points
10. Austin Hays - 4.0 PA - 25.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 381.0 PA - 158.22 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 463.0 PA - 141.25 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (SD) - 457.0 PA - 129.45 JA Points
4. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 364.0 PA - 115.93 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 477.0 PA - 114.72 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 442.0 PA - 109.59 JA Points
7. D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) - 438.0 PA - 107.67 JA Points
8. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
9. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 460.0 PA - 101.57 JA Points
10. Adley Rutschman (BAL) - 252.0 PA - 100.32 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Josh Donaldson (NYY) - 110.9mph - home_run
Seth Brown (OAK) - 110.1mph - foul
Christopher Morel (CHC) - 109.4mph - home_run
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) - 109.1mph - home_run
Nelson Cruz (WSH) - 108.8mph - field_out
Matt Chapman (TOR) - 108.6mph - single
Nelson Cruz (WSH) - 108.4mph - field_out
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 107.7mph - home_run
Matt Chapman (TOR) - 107.6mph - home_run
Luke Voit (WSH) - 107.5mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 80 PA, 46 BIP, 17 Brls, 37.0 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 69 PA, 42 BIP, 12 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Austin Riley - 67 PA, 46 BIP, 13 Brls, 28.3 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 57 PA, 45 BIP, 11 Brls, 24.4 Brl%
Bobby Dalbec - 48 PA, 29 BIP, 7 Brls, 24.1 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 66 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Seth Brown - 48 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Max Muncy - 62 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 69 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 52 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 80 PA, 0.586 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 69 PA, 0.484 xwOBA
Seth Brown - 48 PA, 0.468 xwOBA
Austin Riley - 67 PA, 0.463 xwOBA
Eloy Jimenez - 57 PA, 0.45 xwOBA
Eric Hosmer - 46 PA, 0.432 xwOBA
Luke Voit - 62 PA, 0.429 xwOBA
Pete Alonso - 70 PA, 0.427 xwOBA
Paul Goldschmidt - 52 PA, 0.419 xwOBA
Trayce Thompson - 51 PA, 0.416 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Bryson Stott - 62 PA, 115 Swings, 94.8 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 87 PA, 147 Swings, 92.5 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 78 PA, 131 Swings, 91.6 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 58 PA, 114 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 74 PA, 132 Swings, 90.9 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 65 PA, 110 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 60 PA, 101 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
D.J. LeMahieu - 80 PA, 123 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Myles Straw - 64 PA, 93 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 48 PA, 83 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Anthony Rizzo - 54 PA, 11.1 K%, 15.4 Brl%
Carlos Correa - 58 PA, 19.0 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Danny Jansen - 45 PA, 15.6 K%, 17.1 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 57 PA, 15.8 K%, 24.4 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 52 PA, 13.5 K%, 17.9 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 52 PA, 19.2 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 70 PA, 14.3 K%, 17.0 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 56 PA, 19.6 K%, 15.0 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 67 PA, 16.4 K%, 15.6 Brl%
Seth Brown - 48 PA, 18.8 K%, 21.2 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 66 PA, 16.7 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Dylan Carlson - +8.2% Contact%, +4.8 mph exit velo, -3.0 Chase%
Sean Murphy - +9.1% Contact%, +7.2 mph exit velo, -9.6 Chase%
Randal Grichuk - +8.5% Contact%, +4.4 mph exit velo, -7.4 Chase%
Paul Goldschmidt - +6.0% Contact%, +5.4 mph exit velo, -7.4 Chase%
Jose Altuve - +3.9% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -4.1 Chase%
Jo Adell - +4.8% Contact%, +5.0 mph exit velo, -4.4 Chase%
Brandon Drury - +11.9% Contact%, +3.0 mph exit velo, -6.2 Chase%
Taylor Walls - +7.2% Contact%, +6.2 mph exit velo, -6.8 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Yordan Alvarez - 0.466 xwOBA, 25.0% Brl%, 81.1% Contact%, 18.3% Chase%, 19.3% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Marcell Ozuna - 35.1% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.918 Cold Rating
Mark Canha - 32.9% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.861 Cold Rating
Eugenio Suarez - 34.3% Whiff%, 68.8% Weak%, 0.855 Cold Rating
Rougned Odor - 29.7% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.853 Cold Rating
Ian Happ - 34.7% Whiff%, 68.0% Weak%, 0.848 Cold Rating
Leody Taveras - 38.6% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.847 Cold Rating
Nick Pratto - 37.2% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.837 Cold Rating
Yoan Moncada - 31.0% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.835 Cold Rating
Magneuris Sierra - 27.3% Whiff%, 88.9% Weak%, 0.835 Cold Rating
Hunter Dozier - 34.1% Whiff%, 67.7% Weak%, 0.831 Cold Rating
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