MLB Daily Notes: Wednesday, July 13

Jul 13, 2022

∙ Paid

Introduction / Explanations for New Readers

The Jose Berrios rollercoaster kept rolling as he struck out 13 Phillies over six innings, although he still gave up three runs in the process. John Laghezza on our podcast a few weeks ago mentioned the home/road splits for Berrios, so let’s get a refresher there.

Berrios at home:
8 GS, 33.7% CSW%, 13.8% SwStr%, 3.40 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 26.6% K%, 5.9% BB%

Berrios on road:
10 GS, 26.0% CSW%, 7.8% SwStr%, 7.15 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 15.9% K%, 5.3% BB%

I’m typically on the sell side of home/road splits, I think typically in a one-year sample it’s more likely just explained by randomness (randomly pick half of a pitcher’s starts and compare to the other half and often times the numbers will look much different), but we can’t rule out that there’s something going on here.

One thing I would believe that it could be something about the baseballs themselves, since there’s been a lot of weird on that front this season. If that’s the case, that should apply to all Blue Jays pitchers though, so let’s take a look at their rotation as a whole and compare.

Blue Jays starters at home:

Blue Jays starters on road:

Kikuchi is the only one there with a stark difference. I had a thought that Berrios and Kikuchi rely more on breaking balls as opposed to Gausman & Manoah, so I checked their spin rates on their primary breakers home vs. road and found this:

Berrios CU Spin at Home: 2302 rpm
Berrios CU Spin on Road: 2260 rpm

Kikuchi SL Spin at Home: 2343 rpm
Kikuchi SL Spin on Road: 2304 rpm

So indeed, a bit more spin at home. That made me take this to the next step to see if all curveballs are spinning more in Toronto, so I checked the average spin rate on curveballs by visiting pitchers at all stadiums (did visiting pitchers because if you do all pitchers, the home pitchers throwing more of their curveballs at home factors in and you just get a list of teams with the highest spin rate pitchers).

It’s pretty uniform across the board with just Arizona really standing out, and Toronto is in the middle of the pack so there’s nothing really here - but hey that was fun.

Other than Berrios, everything went pretty much according to plan last night

Cease/Cole dominant
Strider strikes everybody out (38% K%) but inefficient (25.2% CSW%)
Peterson high K% (42.9%) and high BB% (14.3%) as per usual
Keuchel gets bombed (27.3% Brl%)

Chris Sale debuted and threw 78 pitches. He put up a great 37.2% K% but a bad 5.1% SwStr%, here’s the stuff breakdown.

Good fastball velo, threw the slider a bunch. Very weird that he got that many called strikes with the slider, he only got a swing on the pitch 32% of the time (nine total swings, two whiffs). Not really worth much to look at this small of a sample, but I suppose you would have to say it’s an encouraging beginning to Sale’s season.

Logan Webb also had a strikeout game. That typically happens for him when he throws fewer sinkers, which he did yesterday. His leading pitch was the changeup, which he threw 34 times and put up a 23.5% SwStr% on it. He didn’t get a single whiff on his 29 sinkers but had a very good slide as well with a 30.4% SwStr%. The strikeouts are going to be frustrating with him, as clearly he just doesn’t always care to go after them - but he has all kinds of different ways to succeed and we’ve seen that from him this year - he’s very good.

Nolan Jones had two barrels and is now hitting .412/.500/.706 with a homer in his 20 big league appearances. He hit just three homers in 108 plate appearances in the minors, and hit just 13 in 407 plat appearances lat season - so he doesn’t seem to be a big homer hitter, and he also had a 30% K% in 2021 and a 27% mark this season, so I wouldn’t be too excited about this guy but it’s interesting to see the immediate success from a rookie.

The big news of the day was Esteury Ruiz’s call-up to the Padres. He is a must-add in roto fantasy leagues given what he can do with the steal. Here’s his minor league numbers this season

AA: 232 PA, .244/.474/.611, 9 HR, 37 SB
AAA: 142 PA, .315/.457/.477, 4 HR, 23 SB

Comedically he was caught stealing last night, but you can’t get caught stealing if you don’t get on base, and he put up two hits right away on softly hit line drives. The Padres have plenty of bats that they like to play, so I’m not sure if Ruiz is an every day player, but this guy clearly has the upside to win your stolen bases most weeks all by himself. I mean he stole 60 bases in 77 games in the minors. Pick him up in category leagues right away!

Alrighty here’s the rest of the goods!

CSW% Leaders - Yesterday

1. Jose Berrios (TOR): 21.3 SwStr%, 45.7 CSW%

2. Logan Webb (SF): 17.6 SwStr%, 37.4 CSW%

3. Chris Sale (BOS): 5.1 SwStr%, 37.2 CSW%

4. Shane Bieber (CLE): 11.6 SwStr%, 36.8 CSW%

5. Dylan Cease (CWS): 17.9 SwStr%, 34.9 CSW%

6. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 15.9 SwStr%, 33.6 CSW%

7. Dallas Keuchel (ARI): 8.1 SwStr%, 32.3 CSW%

8. Jordan Lyles (BAL): 11.9 SwStr%, 31.7 CSW%

9. Corey Kluber (TB): 15.9 SwStr%, 30.7 CSW%

10. Glenn Otto (TEX): 8.1 SwStr%, 30.6 CSW%

Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday

1. Jose Berrios - 6.33 IP - 96.25 JA Points

2. Gerrit Cole - 7.0 IP - 77.0 JA Points

3. Dylan Cease - 5.67 IP - 74.5 JA Points

4. Shane Bieber - 9.0 IP - 72.0 JA Points

5. Logan Webb - 6.0 IP - 60.0 JA Points

6. Jordan Lyles - 7.0 IP - 58.5 JA Points

7. Corey Kluber - 6.0 IP - 58.0 JA Points

8. Spencer Strider - 4.67 IP - 45.5 JA Points

9. Luis Garcia - 6.0 IP - 44.0 JA Points

10. David Peterson - 5.33 IP - 43.25 JA Points

Pitcher JA Scores - Season

1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 9 GS - 56.7 JA Points

2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 17 GS - 54.88 JA Points

3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 17 GS - 54.82 JA Points

4. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 18 GS - 53.66 JA Points

5. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 12 GS - 51.87 JA Points

6. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 14 GS - 50.41 JA Points

7. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 10 GS - 48.95 JA Points

8. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 17 GS - 46.94 JA Points

9. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 18 GS - 46.42 JA Points

10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 12 GS - 45.29 JA Points

Velo Changes - Yesterday

Dylan Cease's CU velo (13 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 82.8

James Kaprielian's CU velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 77.7

Noah Syndergaard's SL velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 81.0

James Kaprielian's SL velo (12 pitches) DOWN -4.0mph to 82.4

Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday

Adrian Sampson's SI usage (34.1%) up 11.0 points

Adrian Sampson's SL usage (30.8%) up 14.2 points

Austin Gomber's CU usage (31.0%) up 16.3 points

Dallas Keuchel's SL usage (21.0%) up 13.0 points

Dallas Keuchel's FF usage (17.7%) up 12.7 points

David Peterson's SL usage (43.8%) up 17.1 points

Dylan Cease's SL usage (53.8%) up 14.3 points

Gerrit Cole's SL usage (34.5%) up 10.3 points

Glenn Otto's CU usage (24.2%) up 12.8 points

Jason Alexander's CH usage (26.0%) up 11.3 points

Jordan Lyles's FF usage (45.5%) up 15.5 points

Jordan Lyles's SL usage (34.7%) up 10.2 points

Josh Winder's FF usage (52.9%) up 13.4 points

Konnor Pilkington's CU usage (18.9%) up 14.7 points

Mike Clevinger's FF usage (49.4%) up 14.9 points

Noah Syndergaard's CU usage (26.2%) up 18.5 points

Shane Bieber's FC usage (26.3%) up 18.1 points

CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 39.9% CSW%

Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 38.2% CSW%

Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 35.6% CSW%

Dylan Cease - 98 TBF, 34.7% CSW%

Corbin Burnes - 77 TBF, 34.4% CSW%

Blake Snell - 72 TBF, 33.3% CSW%

Patrick Sandoval - 76 TBF, 33.0% CSW%

Spencer Strider - 87 TBF, 33.0% CSW%

Charlie Morton - 100 TBF, 32.8% CSW%

Yu Darvish - 79 TBF, 32.7% CSW%

K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 44.7% K%

Spencer Strider - 87 TBF, 43.7% K%

Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 38.9% K%

David Peterson - 88 TBF, 38.6% K%

Blake Snell - 72 TBF, 37.5% K%

Dylan Cease - 98 TBF, 34.7% K%

Robbie Ray - 96 TBF, 33.3% K%

Josiah Gray - 78 TBF, 33.3% K%

Charlie Morton - 100 TBF, 33.0% K%

Patrick Sandoval - 76 TBF, 32.9% K%

K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 38.2% K-BB%

Spencer Strider - 87 TBF, 37.9% K-BB%

Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 34.7% K-BB%

David Peterson - 88 TBF, 29.5% K-BB%

Josiah Gray - 78 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%

Yu Darvish - 79 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%

Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%

Blake Snell - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%

Charlie Morton - 100 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%

Patrick Sandoval - 76 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%

GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Framber Valdez - 109 TBF, 67.6% GB%

Alex Cobb - 92 TBF, 65.2% GB%

Andre Pallante - 99 TBF, 64.2% GB%

Sandy Alcantara - 115 TBF, 63.7% GB%

Taijuan Walker - 100 TBF, 60.3% GB%

Brad Keller - 96 TBF, 58.2% GB%

Josh Winckowski - 72 TBF, 56.6% GB%

Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 56.1% GB%

Mitch Keller - 95 TBF, 55.2% GB%

Logan Webb - 104 TBF, 54.7% GB%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks

Clayton Kershaw - 103 TBF, 28.2 K%, 5.8 BB%, 50.0% GB%

Luis Castillo - 104 TBF, 29.8 K%, 7.7 BB%, 53.2% GB%

Max Castillo - 54 TBF, 31.5 K%, 5.6 BB%, 55.9% GB%

Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 38.9 K%, 4.2 BB%, 56.1% GB%

Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career

Josiah Gray - +3.0% CSW%, -4.7 BB%

Carlos Rodon - +3.1% CSW%, -2.0 BB%

Patrick Sandoval - +2.0% CSW%, -1.7 BB%

Shane McClanahan - +3.8% CSW%, -1.9 BB%

Spenser Watkins - +2.3% CSW%, -3.5 BB%

Cristian Javier - +6.0% CSW%, -4.4 BB%

Brandon Woodruff - +7.6% CSW%, -1.6 BB%

Bryse Wilson - +5.1% CSW%, -5.3 BB%

Max Scherzer - +6.9% CSW%, -5.6 BB%

Multiple Barrels

Nolan Jones (CLE) 4 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Thairo Estrada (SF) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR

Trea Turner (LAD) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday

1. Jose Abreu - 5.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points

2. Aledmys Diaz - 5.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points

3. Yermin Mercedes - 5.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points

4. Freddie Freeman - 5.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points

5. Sean Murphy - 5.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points

6. Ryan McMahon - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points

7. Jorge Polanco - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points

8. Ha-Seong Kim - 5.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points

9. Bryson Stott - 4.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points

10. Trea Turner - 5.0 PA - 36.0 JA Points

Hitter JA Scores - Season

1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 312.0 PA - 148.85 JA Points

2. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 284.0 PA - 125.21 JA Points

3. Juan Soto (WSH) - 364.0 PA - 119.34 JA Points

4. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 360.0 PA - 116.22 JA Points

5. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 371.0 PA - 112.13 JA Points

6. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 328.0 PA - 111.46 JA Points

7. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 324.0 PA - 106.3 JA Points

8. Will Smith (LAD) - 300.0 PA - 105.33 JA Points

9. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 320.0 PA - 104.38 JA Points

10. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points

Hardest Hit Balls

Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 115.9mph - single

Juan Yepez (STL) - 113.1mph - single

Tommy Edman (STL) - 112.8mph - single

Yermin Mercedes (SF) - 111.7mph - home_run

Luis Robert (CWS) - 111.4mph - single

Riley Greene (DET) - 110.5mph - grounded_into_double_play

Gio Urshela (MIN) - 110.3mph - foul

Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 110.2mph - home_run

Seth Brown (OAK) - 109.9mph - field_out

Alek Thomas (ARI) - 109.9mph - field_out

Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders

Yordan Alvarez - 62 PA, 35 BIP, 11 Brls, 31.4 Brl%

Kyle Schwarber - 80 PA, 51 BIP, 15 Brls, 29.4 Brl%

Julio Rodriguez - 75 PA, 56 BIP, 14 Brls, 25.0 Brl%

Darick Hall - 51 PA, 33 BIP, 8 Brls, 24.2 Brl%

Shohei Ohtani - 69 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%

Aaron Judge - 77 PA, 47 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.3 Brl%

Jorge Alfaro - 57 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%

Aaron Hicks - 58 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%

Bryan De La Cruz - 52 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%

Luke Voit - 67 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%

Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders

Luis Arraez - 89 PA, 133 Swings, 95.5 Cont%

Yandy Diaz - 79 PA, 119 Swings, 93.3 Cont%

Bryson Stott - 64 PA, 115 Swings, 92.2 Cont%

Alex Verdugo - 81 PA, 134 Swings, 91.8 Cont%

Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 58 PA, 82 Swings, 91.5 Cont%

Vinnie Pasquantino - 62 PA, 84 Swings, 89.3 Cont%

Wander Franco - 57 PA, 103 Swings, 89.3 Cont%

Tony Kemp - 63 PA, 132 Swings, 88.6 Cont%

J.P. Crawford - 60 PA, 103 Swings, 88.3 Cont%

Myles Straw - 72 PA, 123 Swings, 87.8 Cont%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks

Carlos Santana - 62 PA, 19.4 K%, 14.6 Brl%

Francisco Lindor - 77 PA, 19.5 K%, 14.3 Brl%

Julio Rodriguez - 75 PA, 17.3 K%, 25.0 Brl%

Robert Refsnyder - 53 PA, 18.9 K%, 18.9 Brl%

Rowdy Tellez - 70 PA, 14.3 K%, 16.7 Brl%

Yadiel Hernandez - 51 PA, 17.6 K%, 15.4 Brl%

Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career

Randal Grichuk - +15.3% Contact%, +8 mph exit velo, -7.5 Chase%

Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days

George Springer - 0.413 xwOBA, 11.9% Brl%, 76.1% Contact%, 24.1% Chase%, 12.3% K%

Marcell Ozuna - 0.376 xwOBA, 16.3% Brl%, 78.8% Contact%, 22.1% Chase%, 19.7% K%

Vinnie Pasquantino - 0.398 xwOBA, 12.2% Brl%, 89.3% Contact%, 20.2% Chase%, 16.1% K%

Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks

Manny Machado - 40.6% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.938 Cold Rating

Patrick Wisdom - 38.1% Whiff%, 69.0% Weak%, 0.893 Cold Rating

Orlando Arcia - 33.3% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.887 Cold Rating

Jorge Alfaro - 37.5% Whiff%, 68.4% Weak%, 0.876 Cold Rating

Rafael Devers - 38.6% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.859 Cold Rating

Michael A. Taylor - 29.0% Whiff%, 79.2% Weak%, 0.854 Cold Rating

Willson Contreras - 37.6% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.852 Cold Rating

Nick Castellanos - 31.8% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.85 Cold Rating

Brian Anderson - 34.8% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.83 Cold Rating

Luis Robert - 27.6% Whiff%, 74.4% Weak%, 0.815 Cold Rating

Magic Formula Qualifiers Looser Criteria - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks

Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 32.4 K%, 4.9 BB%, 43.8% GB%