MLB Daily Notes: Tuesday, June 14
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
Not a ton of action last night, but things mainly went according to plan. Manoah, Nola, Darvish, and Alcantara all pitched very well.
Taking a look at Manoah’s season pitch arsenal marks:
We see another really strong SwStr% on the four-seamer and a good mark on the slider. He led the league in SwStr% with that four-seamer last year, and he’s still in the top 10 this season, here’s that leaderboard (350+ four-seamers thrown minimum)
Zack Wheeler 16.8%
Shane McClanahan 16.3%
Spencer Strider 15.8%
Eric Lauer 15.8%
Gerrit Cole 15.2%
Cristian Javier 15.1%
Dylan Cease 14.8%
Alek Manoah 14.4%
Lucas Giolito 14.0%
Tyler Mahle 13.9%
An interesting thing that guy Frank Ammirante has pointed out for betting purposes is the difference in the splits numbers for Manoah. Against righties he has a 31.3% K%, against lefties it’s down at 15% - that’s a wild difference. I’m sure teams have caught on to this and have been rolling out as many lefties as they can against him, but any time Manoah runs into an offense that doesn’t have lefties - it’s time to bet on a high-strikeout game, and vice-versa.
Darvish had his second-straight great start, getting through eight innings while giving up one run on five hits and striking out seven. His 15.9% SwStr% was a big step up from the 11.9% he had previously, so the signals are pointing in a good direction for Darvish - but his K-BB% still sits at a pretty mediocre 15.5% (20.5%-5.0%).
Jose Abreu was the hitter of the day, taking advantage of that bad Tigers pitching staff with three hits and two homers.
His season numbers
10.8% Brl%
55% Hard-Hit%
16% K%
12% BB%
78% Contact%
47% GB%
Since May 15th:
11.3% Brl%
56% Hard-Hit%
14% K%
16% BB%
78.5% Contact%
44% GB%
So basically the same stuff but a slightly better K% and BB% and he’s keeping the ball off of the ground more recently. Just another solid year for the veteran!
A cold hitter standing out is Julio Rodriguez. He’s making contact just 61.7% of the time this month, but at least when he is making contact, it’s loud contact (48% hard-hit%, 14.8% Brl%).
Right now he’s a great fantasy player because of the elite steals and the strong home run production, but the high K% is keeping him away from being an elite overall player. He had the K% under 30% for a second there but now we’re back up to 30.5%
He’s certainly a must-start guy, but he is going to be prone to these very cold stretches as long as he’s whiffing as much as he is.
I am attempting to churn out some extra articles on RotoBaller this week, might even see if I can get on a bit of a streak! Here is today’s piece - I dove into hitters with high contact and hard-hit rates.
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Merrill Kelly (ARI): 13.7 SwStr%, 34.3 CSW%
2. Alex Wood (SF): 15.0 SwStr%, 33.8 CSW%
3. Alek Manoah (TOR): 11.6 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
4. Aaron Nola (PHI): 15.0 SwStr%, 33.6 CSW%
5. Yu Darvish (SD): 15.9 SwStr%, 31.8 CSW%
6. Cristian Javier (HOU): 16.5 SwStr%, 30.8 CSW%
7. Chris Flexen (SEA): 16.9 SwStr%, 30.3 CSW%
8. Chris Archer (MIN): 14.9 SwStr%, 29.9 CSW%
9. Rony Garcia (DET): 6.7 SwStr%, 29.3 CSW%
10. Brady Singer (KC): 7.9 SwStr%, 29.2 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Alek Manoah - 5.67 IP - 64.25 JA Points
2. Aaron Nola - 7.0 IP - 59.0 JA Points
3. Yu Darvish - 8.0 IP - 57.5 JA Points
4. Cristian Javier - 6.0 IP - 55.25 JA Points
5. Alex Wood - 6.0 IP - 45.75 JA Points
6. Sandy Alcantara - 7.67 IP - 45.75 JA Points
7. Justin Steele - 7.0 IP - 38.5 JA Points
8. Merrill Kelly - 6.0 IP - 37.0 JA Points
9. Chris Flexen - 5.0 IP - 32.25 JA Points
10. Chris Archer - 4.0 IP - 26.0 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 12 GS - 55.49 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 12 GS - 53.65 JA Points
3. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 3 GS - 50.92 JA Points
4. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 12 GS - 50.7 JA Points
5. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 8 GS - 49.99 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 12 GS - 47.11 JA Points
7. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 7 GS - 46.62 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8 GS - 46.36 JA Points
9. Luis Severino (NYY) - 11 GS - 45.82 JA Points
10. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 10 GS - 45.69 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Mitch Keller's FF velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 94.6
Mitch Keller's SL velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 85.2
Yu Darvish's FS velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 87.9
Mitch Keller's CU velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 78.5
Rony Garcia's CU velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 78.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alek Manoah's SI usage (34.9%) up 15.7 points
Chris Archer's CH usage (23.9%) up 13.1 points
Erasmo Ramirez's CU usage (16.7%) up 12.5 points
Justin Steele's FF usage (70.1%) up 13.3 points
Mike Minor's FF usage (51.0%) up 11.0 points
Mitch Keller's SI usage (29.9%) up 18.7 points
Mitch Keller's CU usage (23.7%) up 12.5 points
Rony Garcia's SI usage (26.7%) up 19.7 points
Sandy Alcantara's CH usage (38.1%) up 11.9 points
Yu Darvish's FC usage (48.6%) up 15.7 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane Bieber - 71 TBF, 37.0% CSW%
Aaron Ashby - 101 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 99 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 69 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Luis Severino - 70 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 70 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 96 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 92 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Brady Singer - 90 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Luis Severino - 70 TBF, 40.0% K%
Spencer Strider - 70 TBF, 35.7% K%
Hunter Greene - 82 TBF, 35.4% K%
Zack Wheeler - 72 TBF, 33.3% K%
Shane McClanahan - 99 TBF, 33.3% K%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 32.6% K%
Charlie Morton - 92 TBF, 31.5% K%
Shane Bieber - 71 TBF, 31.0% K%
Jon Gray - 100 TBF, 30.0% K%
Carlos Carrasco - 97 TBF, 29.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Luis Severino - 70 TBF, 34.3% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 82 TBF, 30.5% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 99 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 71 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 72 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 110 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%
Sandy Alcantara - 115 TBF, 24.3% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 92 TBF, 23.9% K-BB%
George Kirby - 92 TBF, 23.9% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 22.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 109 TBF, 68.4% GB%
Aaron Ashby - 101 TBF, 65.7% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 115 TBF, 60.5% GB%
Jason Alexander - 74 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 90 TBF, 58.7% GB%
Max Fried - 101 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Justin Steele - 92 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 97 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 72 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 95 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 101 TBF, 27.7 K%, 5.9 BB%, 65.7% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 7.2 BB%, 57.6% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 63 TBF, 34.9 K%, 7.9 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Jose Berrios - 69 TBF, 27.5 K%, 5.8 BB%, 48.9% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 115 TBF, 28.7 K%, 4.3 BB%, 60.5% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 72 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.6 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Sandy Alcantara - +3.6% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Tarik Skubal - +3.8% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Zach Davies - +3.1% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Logan Webb - +2.7% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Shane Bieber - +2.8% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Corey Kluber - +2.9% CSW%, -5.9 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Alex Bregman (HOU) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Dylan Carlson (STL) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jose Abreu (CWS) 5 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Kyle Farmer (CIN) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Jose Abreu - 5.0 PA - 79.0 JA Points
2. Paul Goldschmidt - 5.0 PA - 63.0 JA Points
3. Dylan Carlson - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
4. Christian Walker - 4.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
5. Dansby Swanson - 5.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
6. Alex Bregman - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
7. Yordan Alvarez - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
8. Adam Duvall - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
9. Austin Meadows - 5.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
10. Kyle Farmer - 4.0 PA - 35.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 231.0 PA - 148.92 JA Points
2. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 239.0 PA - 137.41 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 252.0 PA - 134.44 JA Points
4. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 158.0 PA - 127.85 JA Points
5. Juan Soto (WSH) - 277.0 PA - 115.81 JA Points
6. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 186.0 PA - 115.48 JA Points
7. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 259.0 PA - 110.27 JA Points
8. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 250.0 PA - 108.16 JA Points
9. Trey Mancini (BAL) - 248.0 PA - 105.81 JA Points
10. Will Smith (LAD) - 192.0 PA - 105.62 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 119.2mph - foul
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 114.8mph - double
Gary Sanchez (MIN) - 114.7mph - double
Matt Olson (ATL) - 114.1mph - field_out
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 113.2mph - single
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 112.5mph - double
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 112.0mph - field_out
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 111.9mph - single
Jose Abreu (CWS) - 111.3mph - home_run
Eric Hosmer (SD) - 111.1mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 73 PA, 39 BIP, 10 Brls, 25.6 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 86 PA, 49 BIP, 12 Brls, 24.5 Brl%
Jake Burger - 66 PA, 46 BIP, 11 Brls, 23.9 Brl%
Jazz Chisholm - 59 PA, 34 BIP, 8 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 81 PA, 56 BIP, 13 Brls, 23.2 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 70 PA, 47 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.3 Brl%
Austin Riley - 88 PA, 54 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.4 Brl%
Adam Duvall - 66 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 60 PA, 32 BIP, 6 Brls, 18.8 Brl%
Gleyber Torres - 61 PA, 45 BIP, 8 Brls, 17.8 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 49 PA, 74 Swings, 95.9 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 64 PA, 118 Swings, 93.2 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 72 PA, 124 Swings, 91.9 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 55 PA, 88 Swings, 90.9 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 86 PA, 152 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 79 PA, 119 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Myles Straw - 72 PA, 118 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 73 PA, 107 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 58 PA, 96 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 77 PA, 138 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Alejandro Kirk - 62 PA, 11.3 K%, 14.9 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 78 PA, 14.1 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Joey Votto - 78 PA, 17.9 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Jose Abreu - 82 PA, 13.4 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Nelson Cruz - 75 PA, 20.0 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Nick Gordon - 59 PA, 16.9 K%, 15.6 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 70 PA, 18.6 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 79 PA, 19.0 K%, 17.2 Brl%
Willson Contreras - 73 PA, 19.2 K%, 17.8 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 78 PA, 10.3 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Alex Bregman - +5.0% Contact%, +4.5 mph exit velo, -4.8 Chase%
Carlos Santana - +10.2% Contact%, +3.0 mph exit velo, -9.7 Chase%
Brendan Rodgers - +3.7% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -9.5 Chase%
Taylor Walls - +14.8% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -9.2 Chase%
Brandon Drury - +5.9% Contact%, +5.2 mph exit velo, -3.3 Chase%
Willson Contreras - +7.8% Contact%, +4.9 mph exit velo, -8.6 Chase%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Julio Rodriguez - 34.6% Whiff%, 71.0% Weak%, 0.895 Cold Rating
Michael Chavis - 35.5% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.888 Cold Rating
Jonathan Schoop - 35.8% Whiff%, 69.7% Weak%, 0.885 Cold Rating
Javier Baez - 43.4% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.869 Cold Rating
Kole Calhoun - 34.7% Whiff%, 69.0% Weak%, 0.863 Cold Rating
Yasmani Grandal - 28.8% Whiff%, 78.9% Weak%, 0.858 Cold Rating
Jeff McNeil - 32.0% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.841 Cold Rating
Kevin Kiermaier - 28.9% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.814 Cold Rating
Trevor Story - 29.2% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.813 Cold Rating
Daulton Varsho - 27.6% Whiff%, 73.5% Weak%, 0.803 Cold Rating
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