MLB Daily Notes: Tuesday, May 10
I’ve never loved a person I’ve never met more than I love Shohei Ohtani. I was all over him last season in my home league where I can switch him back and forth between hitter and pitcher every day - which made him the #1 player in fantasy by several miles last season.
Well I have 50,000 more reasons to love the man now:
That’s kind of dumb expression though, if I won $10 on that lineup I wouldn’t be saying “I have ten more reasons to love Ohtani!” - but we’ll go with it.
I guess I should buy a Mauricio Dubon jersey too - shout out to that guy - but baseball jerseys look stupid so I’m not going to actually be buying one.
I took first place out of 18,030 people and got a 3,333-to-1 return on my $15 entry.
I would love to say that this lineup was a direct output of my daily DraftKings projections and that if you buy my projections for $5/month or $40/year, you’ll win $50,000 too!!! I would love to say that so much I think I’ll say it.
This lineup was a direct output of my daily DraftKings projections and that if you buy my projections for $5/month or $40/year, you’ll win $50,000 too!!!*
In reality, as always, this was just mainly a stroke of luck. I liked the Phillies and Angels last night, of course, and talked about them in the DFS notes & analysis article I sent out yesterday afternoon (in which I actually promised you all that I’d win a tournament this week!), but ending up with all the right guys together with Dubon and Ketel isn’t like some genius, strategic move - just a lucky thing to happen.
I promise you all I will post a nice picture and full analysis of the used minivan I buy with the winnings. Or maybe I should just use the money to buy a couple gallons of gas HEYOOOOOO.
My son is sleeping in today, it’s miraculous. It’s 6:50 and he’s still zonked. But guess what happened - my three-year-old daughter has been up for two hours cause she sprained her wrist yesterday - Bayesian probability at work. Every morning, I must hit on two probabilities in order to have a peaceful morning to myself. I probably have about a 10% chance of the baby sleeping past 7, and a 90% chance of the three-year-old doing it, so together that’s just a 9% chance. Starting early December that will be three - which just means surrendering any hope - probably just start waking up at 4am and slowly dying due to lack of sleep.
I was still able to get the second 5K of the week done though, running is a little easier when you’re buzzing from just finding out you won $50K.
Recorded a new episode of the podcast last night so keep an ear out for that later today! Here we go with the baseball stuff for today!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jeffrey Springs (TB): 21.1 SwStr%, 38.6 CSW%
2. Carlos Rodon (SF): 20.9 SwStr%, 37.3 CSW%
3. Nestor Cortes (NYY): 16.5 SwStr%, 35.0 CSW%
4. Elieser Hernandez (MIA): 14.8 SwStr%, 34.1 CSW%
5. Ranger Suarez (PHI): 14.4 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
6. Humberto Castellanos (ARI): 12.8 SwStr%, 32.1 CSW%
7. Paul Blackburn (OAK): 8.0 SwStr%, 31.8 CSW%
8. Luis Castillo (CIN): 11.5 SwStr%, 31.0 CSW%
9. Julio Urias (LAD): 13.4 SwStr%, 30.5 CSW%
10. Jon Gray (TEX): 11.7 SwStr%, 29.9 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Carlos Rodon - 6.0 IP - 95.5 JA Points
2. Nestor Cortes - 7.33 IP - 77.75 JA Points
3. Kyle Hendricks - 8.67 IP - 75.25 JA Points
4. Ranger Suarez - 6.0 IP - 57.0 JA Points
5. Jeffrey Springs - 4.0 IP - 49.25 JA Points
6. Michael Kopech - 6.0 IP - 46.75 JA Points
7. Paul Blackburn - 6.67 IP - 46.25 JA Points
8. MacKenzie Gore - 4.67 IP - 44.25 JA Points
9. Noah Syndergaard - 5.33 IP - 39.25 JA Points
10. Elieser Hernandez - 5.33 IP - 39.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 5.0 GS - 59.62 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 6.0 GS - 56.28 JA Points
3. Lucas Giolito (CWS) - 4.0 GS - 55.72 JA Points
4. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 6.0 GS - 55.36 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 6.0 GS - 53.42 JA Points
6. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 6.0 GS - 53.18 JA Points
7. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 6.0 GS - 53.12 JA Points
8. Garrett Whitlock (BOS) - 3.0 GS - 52.85 JA Points
9. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 6.0 GS - 47.79 JA Points
10. Eric Lauer (MIL) - 5.0 GS - 47.02 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Julio Urias's CU velo (45 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 82.2
Zach Plesac's SL velo (28 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 85.5
Elieser Hernandez's SI velo (23 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 92.1
Austin Gomber's SL velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 81.8
Austin Gomber's KC velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 73.5
MacKenzie Gore's CH velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 84.3
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Ashton Goudeau's CU usage (41.5%) up 12.2 points
Elieser Hernandez's SI usage (26.1%) up 25.4 points
Jose Quintana's SI usage (19.6%) up 10.6 points
Julio Urias's CU usage (54.9%) up 17.6 points
MacKenzie Gore's CH usage (18.0%) up 14.7 points
Michael Kopech's SL usage (29.7%) up 12.5 points
Michael Pineda's SL usage (36.2%) up 18.1 points
Nestor Cortes's FC usage (49.5%) up 11.0 points
Noah Syndergaard's FF usage (30.9%) up 11.5 points
Tyler Wells's CU usage (25.3%) up 10.3 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 69 TBF, 41.0% CSW%
Jordan Montgomery - 87 TBF, 37.5% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 100 TBF, 37.0% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 69 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 106 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 70 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Eric Lauer - 73 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Aaron Ashby - 66 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
JT Brubaker - 76 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 86 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Eric Lauer - 73 TBF, 43.8% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 69 TBF, 39.1% K%
Brandon Woodruff - 85 TBF, 38.8% K%
Corbin Burnes - 100 TBF, 38.0% K%
Max Scherzer - 99 TBF, 36.4% K%
Aaron Nola - 70 TBF, 35.7% K%
Carlos Rodon - 90 TBF, 35.6% K%
Shane McClanahan - 69 TBF, 33.3% K%
Gerrit Cole - 86 TBF, 32.6% K%
Dylan Cease - 95 TBF, 32.6% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Eric Lauer - 73 TBF, 37.0% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 69 TBF, 36.2% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 100 TBF, 34.0% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 70 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Brandon Woodruff - 85 TBF, 31.8% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 99 TBF, 31.3% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 102 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 69 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Max Fried - 93 TBF, 26.9% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 90 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 99 TBF, 71.8% GB%
Aaron Ashby - 66 TBF, 65.0% GB%
Adam Wainwright - 96 TBF, 64.3% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 95 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Logan Webb - 98 TBF, 60.8% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 90 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Yu Darvish - 75 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 100 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Dallas Keuchel - 85 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 76 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Corbin Burnes - 100 TBF, 38.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, 57.9% GB%
Dylan Cease - 95 TBF, 32.6 K%, 7.4 BB%, 46.4% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 64 TBF, 31.2 K%, 6.2 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Garrett Whitlock - 49 TBF, 36.7 K%, 4.1 BB%, 55.2% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 102 TBF, 31.4 K%, 1.0 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Kyle Wright - 79 TBF, 27.8 K%, 7.6 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Max Fried - 93 TBF, 28.0 K%, 1.1 BB%, 55.4% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 97 TBF, 27.8 K%, 5.2 BB%, 52.3% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 69 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.8 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 69 TBF, 27.5 K%, 2.9 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Josh Naylor (CLE) 6 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Shohei Ohtani - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
2. Josh Naylor - 6.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
3. Wander Franco - 5.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
4. Bryce Harper - 5.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
5. Gavin Sheets - 3.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
6. Tommy Pham - 5.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
7. Austin Slater - 5.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
8. Connor Joe - 5.0 PA - 35.0 JA Points
9. Omar Narvaez - 4.0 PA - 35.0 JA Points
10. Jose Ramirez - 6.0 PA - 34.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 97.0 PA - 153.4 JA Points
2. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 128.0 PA - 149.38 JA Points
3. Mike Trout (LAA) - 110.0 PA - 136.0 JA Points
4. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 96.0 PA - 135.42 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 119.0 PA - 126.72 JA Points
6. Rowdy Tellez (MIL) - 104.0 PA - 123.85 JA Points
7. Juan Soto (WSH) - 133.0 PA - 119.4 JA Points
8. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 114.0 PA - 114.74 JA Points
9. Nolan Arenado (STL) - 114.0 PA - 108.07 JA Points
10. Carlos Santana (KC) - 76.0 PA - 106.32 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Christian Yelich (MIL) - 113.7mph - field_out
Eric Hosmer (SD) - 111.9mph - single
Mike Trout (LAA) - 111.4mph - home_run
Jason Heyward (CHC) - 111.1mph - single
Josh Naylor (CLE) - 110.1mph - home_run
Rowdy Tellez (MIL) - 110.1mph - double
Odubel Herrera (PHI) - 110.0mph - field_out
Cooper Hummel (ARI) - 109.9mph - force_out
Gavin Sheets (CWS) - 109.8mph - foul
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 109.8mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Mike Trout - 73 PA, 40 BIP, 13 Brls, 32.5 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 73 PA, 44 BIP, 12 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 71 PA, 50 BIP, 13 Brls, 26.0 Brl%
Ryan Jeffers - 46 PA, 27 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.9 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 46 PA, 22 BIP, 5 Brls, 22.7 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 75 PA, 54 BIP, 12 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Byron Buxton - 53 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Willy Adames - 83 PA, 51 BIP, 11 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 51 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 70 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 60 PA, 93 Swings, 92.5 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 52 PA, 91 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Michael Brantley - 67 PA, 122 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Austin Meadows - 68 PA, 112 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 62 PA, 118 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 77 PA, 110 Swings, 87.3 Cont%
Wander Franco - 79 PA, 148 Swings, 87.2 Cont%
Ty France - 89 PA, 184 Swings, 87.0 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 57 PA, 107 Swings, 86.9 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 81 PA, 149 Swings, 86.6 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Freddie Freeman - 72 PA, 13.9 K%, 19.2 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 51 PA, 19.6 K%, 20.5 Brl%
Juan Soto - 83 PA, 19.3 K%, 14.5 Brl%
Luis Robert - 49 PA, 18.4 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Max Kepler - 67 PA, 16.4 K%, 17.0 Brl%
Max Muncy - 61 PA, 19.7 K%, 16.7 Brl%
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