MLB Daily Notes: Tuesday, May 31
The savant data hit early this morning! We’re going to be completely done writing for the day by eight o’clock, glorious!
The pitcher of the day has to be Aaron Ashby, who struck out a dozen Cubs last night in six innings of one-run ball. He still walked a pair of hitters, but went for another crazy 64% GB% and a super-elite 39% CSW%. He threw 100 pitches, by far the season-high, and that’s incredibly encouraging to see. He threw 31 sinkers, 31 changeups, 25 sliders, and 13 curveballs. That’s a really nice distribution and all of those pitches worked well:
I’m sure this guy isn’t available in many leagues, but with Peralta on the shelf he is a must-start pitcher with how good he is and the newfound pitch counts.
I’m not taking Mookie Betts as the hitter of the day, but I do want to call out that he has scored 50 runs this year in 46 games. The second-best mark in the league is Rafael Devers way down at 38; it’s just absurd the fantasy points Mookie is putting up this year.
The hitter to highlight is Edwin Rios, another Dodger. He has stepped into an everyday role here with Max Muncy on the shelf. It’s always very tempting to pick up any Dodgers bat, and especially so with Rios’s power. He has hit seven homers in 83 plate appearances this year, which puts him in 2nd place in PA/HR for hitters with 75+ PA. Here are the top 10 there.
Aaron Judge 10.9
Edwin Rios 11.9
Joc Pederson 12.1
Yordan Alvarez 12.6
Byron Buxton 13.1
Mike Trout 14.1
Mookie Betts 14.1
Taylor Ward 14.2
Jose Altuve 14.6
Jose Ramirez 14.8
The problem is that he has struck out at a 41% clip. This has long been a feature of his game, but the career K% isn’t close to 40%, it sits at 32%. The 63% contact rate puts him in the bottom 20 of the league, so there’s not much hope for anything but a horrible strikeou rate. If you need some homers and RBI, Rios is certainly viable - but he is going to be a significant blow to your team’s batting average. He did walk at a good clip last year (11%), but that’s down below 5% this year and his career mark is around league-average at 8%.
Maybe the consistent at-bats will move the K% down towards 30% and the BB% up towards 10% - if that happens the homers and RBI may justify the roster spot - but the point is that Rios is no slam-dunk pickup right now.
We’ve got a nice DFS slate on this fine Tuesday, and the projections are getting better and better with more data captured. If you’re not a paid sub and you’re a DFS player, you’re really missing out on some super helpful stuff here, so upgrade your subscription today!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Aaron Ashby (MIL): 21.0 SwStr%, 39.0 CSW%
2. Spencer Strider (ATL): 19.4 SwStr%, 38.9 CSW%
3. Logan Webb (SF): 15.0 SwStr%, 38.0 CSW%
4. Andre Pallante (STL): 17.0 SwStr%, 35.8 CSW%
5. Paul Blackburn (OAK): 12.1 SwStr%, 34.1 CSW%
6. Tyler Wells (BAL): 12.5 SwStr%, 33.0 CSW%
7. Ryan Feltner (COL): 16.0 SwStr%, 31.9 CSW%
8. Matt Swarmer (CHC): 12.0 SwStr%, 30.4 CSW%
9. Walker Buehler (LAD): 8.6 SwStr%, 30.1 CSW%
10. Ethan Small (MIL): 15.9 SwStr%, 29.0 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Corbin Burnes - 7.33 IP - 95.25 JA Points
2. Tyler Mahle - 6.67 IP - 73.0 JA Points
3. MacKenzie Gore - 7.0 IP - 67.75 JA Points
4. Luis Garcia - 7.0 IP - 64.75 JA Points
5. Shane McClanahan - 6.0 IP - 63.75 JA Points
6. Luis Severino - 6.33 IP - 63.25 JA Points
7. Chris Bassitt - 6.0 IP - 53.75 JA Points
8. Tyler Anderson - 6.0 IP - 52.5 JA Points
9. Alex Cobb - 6.0 IP - 52.0 JA Points
10. Dylan Cease - 7.0 IP - 50.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 10 GS - 56.55 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 10 GS - 54.68 JA Points
3. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 8 GS - 51.27 JA Points
4. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 9 GS - 50.41 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 10 GS - 50.23 JA Points
6. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 8 GS - 49.99 JA Points
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 10 GS - 48.25 JA Points
8. Lucas Giolito (CWS) - 7 GS - 48.24 JA Points
9. Alex Cobb (SF) - 8 GS - 46.79 JA Points
10. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8 GS - 46.36 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Zach Plesac's CH velo (13 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 86.8
Zach Plesac's SL velo (18 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 85.9
Tyler Wells's CU velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 76.3
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Beau Brieske's SL usage (25.3%) up 11.4 points
David Bednar's CU usage (40.0%) up 14.9 points
Drew Rasmussen's FF usage (43.3%) up 11.5 points
Erick Fedde's FC usage (46.2%) up 11.5 points
Framber Valdez's CH usage (21.1%) up 10.3 points
Glenn Otto's KC usage (23.2%) up 11.2 points
Kyle Gibson's FF usage (24.2%) up 16.2 points
Nick Martinez's SI usage (26.9%) up 11.8 points
Pablo Lopez's FC usage (22.2%) up 10.2 points
Spencer Strider's CH usage (22.2%) up 20.0 points
Zach Plesac's FF usage (54.2%) up 10.8 points
Zach Thompson's CU usage (20.8%) up 10.7 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 109 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 95 TBF, 35.4% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 106 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 86 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Nathan Eovaldi - 98 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Tony Gonsolin - 84 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Robbie Ray - 98 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Zack Wheeler - 99 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 93 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Robbie Ray - 98 TBF, 37.8% K%
Shane McClanahan - 95 TBF, 35.8% K%
Frankie Montas - 84 TBF, 34.5% K%
Zack Wheeler - 99 TBF, 33.3% K%
Dylan Cease - 90 TBF, 32.2% K%
Gerrit Cole - 109 TBF, 32.1% K%
Aaron Nola - 106 TBF, 31.1% K%
Tony Gonsolin - 84 TBF, 31.0% K%
Sonny Gray - 91 TBF, 29.7% K%
Kyle Bradish - 82 TBF, 29.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane McClanahan - 95 TBF, 32.6% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 99 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 98 TBF, 29.6% K-BB%
Frankie Montas - 84 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 109 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 106 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 91 TBF, 24.2% K-BB%
Tyler Anderson - 107 TBF, 23.4% K-BB%
Luis Severino - 96 TBF, 22.9% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 118 TBF, 59.8% GB%
Alex Cobb - 95 TBF, 59.4% GB%
Martin Perez - 109 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 117 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 100 TBF, 56.5% GB%
Joan Adon - 91 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Walker Buehler - 98 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Alex Wood - 85 TBF, 55.0% GB%
Adrian Houser - 91 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Frankie Montas - 84 TBF, 54.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 66 TBF, 39.4 K%, 7.6 BB%, 68.6% GB%
Brady Singer - 73 TBF, 27.4 K%, 4.1 BB%, 52.0% GB%
Frankie Montas - 84 TBF, 34.5 K%, 6.0 BB%, 54.0% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 64 TBF, 31.2 K%, 4.7 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 109 TBF, 32.1 K%, 3.7 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 93 TBF, 28.0 K%, 7.5 BB%, 45.0% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 117 TBF, 27.4 K%, 5.1 BB%, 57.9% GB%
Sonny Gray - 91 TBF, 29.7 K%, 5.5 BB%, 47.5% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 92 TBF, 28.3 K%, 6.5 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 99 TBF, 33.3 K%, 3.0 BB%, 48.4% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Amed Rosario (CLE) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Ji-Man Choi (TB) 3 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Nolan Gorman (STL) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ramon Urias (BAL) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Tyrone Taylor (MIL) 8 PA, 14 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Hardest Hit Balls
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 114.7mph - home_run
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 113.9mph - home_run
Gary Sanchez (MIN) - 113.2mph - home_run
Christopher Morel (CHC) - 112.9mph - double
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 112.8mph - field_out
Rhys Hoskins (PHI) - 112.2mph - home_run
Sam Hilliard (COL) - 111.4mph - field_out
Jorge Mateo (BAL) - 111.3mph - single
Patrick Wisdom (CHC) - 110.9mph - double
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 110.8mph - single
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Nolan Gorman - 4.0 PA - 71.0 JA Points
2. Mookie Betts - 5.0 PA - 57.0 JA Points
3. Starling Marte - 5.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
4. Ryan Mountcastle - 5.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
5. Willson Contreras - 4.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
6. Yordan Alvarez - 4.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
7. Trey Mancini - 5.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
8. Pete Alonso - 5.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
9. Kole Calhoun - 5.0 PA - 38.0 JA Points
10. Mike Yastrzemski - 5.0 PA - 38.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 142.0 PA - 157.18 JA Points
2. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 192.0 PA - 145.83 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 197.0 PA - 128.32 JA Points
4. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 177.0 PA - 127.23 JA Points
5. Juan Soto (WSH) - 219.0 PA - 124.2 JA Points
6. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 212.0 PA - 120.38 JA Points
7. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 202.0 PA - 115.84 JA Points
8. Mike Trout (LAA) - 183.0 PA - 107.54 JA Points
9. Joc Pederson (SF) - 133.0 PA - 107.37 JA Points
10. Mookie Betts (LAD) - 212.0 PA - 106.79 JA Points
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Evan Longoria - 56 PA, 35 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.7 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 54 PA, 35 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.7 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 83 PA, 56 BIP, 14 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 75 PA, 47 BIP, 11 Brls, 23.4 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 62 PA, 40 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.5 Brl%
Trevor Story - 85 PA, 51 BIP, 11 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 58 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 84 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 63 PA, 36 BIP, 7 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Kole Calhoun - 80 PA, 52 BIP, 10 Brls, 19.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 81 PA, 120 Swings, 92.5 Cont%
Michael Brantley - 77 PA, 94 Swings, 91.5 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 64 PA, 122 Swings, 91.0 Cont%
Myles Straw - 66 PA, 99 Swings, 90.9 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 76 PA, 147 Swings, 89.1 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 51 PA, 79 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 82 PA, 144 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 52 PA, 90 Swings, 87.8 Cont%
Alex Verdugo - 72 PA, 128 Swings, 87.5 Cont%
D.J. LeMahieu - 66 PA, 109 Swings, 87.2 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Joc Pederson - 58 PA, 15.5 K%, 21.1 Brl%
Nelson Cruz - 75 PA, 18.7 K%, 15.1 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 83 PA, 19.3 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 85 PA, 17.6 K%, 18.0 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 80 PA, 18.8 K%, 15.5 Brl%
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