MLB Daily Notes: Tuesday, October 4
I have really been gaining some “easiness” in my life back in recent weeks, and I want to tell you about it. My kids are both sleeping 8-8 most nights, and baby Lee (not Producer Lee) goes past eight most days, and even when he wakes up he just likes to sit around in his crib and look around. It’s absolutely incredible.
The other thing breaking my way is that we have new neighbors, a family with seven kids - SEVEN! They have a couple of teenagers that are, of course, amazing with watching young kids - and then they have kids that are about the same age of my two kids as well, simple math had to make that true - the sheer volume of kids. So yesterday afternoon Dani went over and played with Autumn for a bit before dinner. They’re two houses down and our backyards are all attached so we just let her walk down and jump on the trampoline with her and then I went and got her when it was time for dinner. Incredible stuff. That girl is five and Dani is three but they’re basically at the same mental age or whatever you’d call it because Dani is way ahead - shout out to me.
And now baseball season is requiring a lot less out of me daily in terms of writing, so I have like… free time. It’s wild. I am currently reading four books at once, and I finished the 2022 Reading Challenge on Goodreads. I’ve read 25 books this year, although a couple of them were cheat codes because they were really short C.S. Lewis books. But look, how many books did you read. weirdo? I bet none!
Here’s my Goodreads page if you want to see how freaking smart I am. I almost want to start a new SubStack where I just talk about the books I read and the ideas and whatnot that come from them, but I know I shouldn’t push the limits here with baby #3 coming in two months now.
Anyways, baseball! Me and Producer Lee will be doing a live podcast video stream to go over the results of the MLB SuperForecasting contest. I bet you forgot about that! Here’s the intro post for a refresher. A bunch of people made predictions on what would happen this season, and we will do the tallies and crown a winner on Thursday. Should be fun to look back specifically at how wrong I was about stuff.
I got back into MLB betting yesterday and went 4/4 on pitcher strikeout props.
McKenzie under 6.5
Greene under 8.5
Woodruff under 8.5
Musgrove over 5.5
I did that because I had some kind of feeling about how the under on these bets would probably be decently sharp with pitch counts being limited and whatnot as we grind to a hault here. I’m sure the lines bake all of this stuff in and there’s no actual edge here, but hey I went 4/4 so crown my ass!
Hunter Greene got me thinking about which players have shown the sheer upside this season, so let’s look at some “upside” metrics. My favorite one for pitchers is swinging strike rate. A pitcher can have a sick swinging strike rate but still be pretty ineffective if he’s unable to command it, but we have seen plenty of times that the guys that eventually turn into aces start with a strong SwStr% that signifies that upside (Corbin Burnes comes to mind big time here).
Here’s a curated list of notable SwStr% rates, I left out the guys we already know are aces because that’s boring. For comparison’s sake, the average is about 12% and the league leaders are 17% (Strider & McClanahan)
Hunter Greene 15.6%
Jeffrey Springs 15.1%
Cristian Javier 14.4%
Yusei Kikuchi 14.7%
Jesus Luzardo 14.5%
Luis Garcia 14.3%
Patrick Sandoval 14.2%
Luis Severino 13.%
Nick Lodolo 13.7%
Drew Smyly 13.5%
David Peterson 13.5%
Drew Rasmussen 13.5%
Jon Gray 12.8%
Tyler Wells 12.7%
JT Brubaker 12.7%
As for hitters, let’s look at some notable max exit velocities, as that is a good signal of ability to swing the bat very hard, which is obviously a benefit to you if you’re able to make enough contact.
Cruz 122
Stanton 120
Schwarber 119
Ohtani 119
Vlad 118
Judge 118
Cordero 118
Robert 118
Soler 118
Alvarez 117
Rodriguez 117
Yelich 117
Tellez 117
Olson 117
Avisail 117
Acuna 117
Alonso 117
Pederson 116
Contreras (CHC) 116
Sanchez 116
Alfaro 116
Other notables above 113
Nootbaar 116
Walsh 115
K Marte 115
Peralta 115
Pasquantino 114
Yepez 114
Yandy 114
Bart 114
Arozarena 114
Raleigh 114
Santander 114
H Ramirez 114
Harris II 114
Gimenez 114
And that’s all the time I have, talk to you again tomorrow!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Aaron Nola (PHI): 17.0 SwStr%, 39.8 CSW%
2. Sean Hjelle (SF): 14.5 SwStr%, 39.5 CSW%
3. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 19.8 SwStr%, 38.6 CSW%
4. Joe Musgrove (SD): 12.9 SwStr%, 37.6 CSW%
5. Rich Hill (BOS): 15.0 SwStr%, 35.0 CSW%
6. Bryan Garcia (DET): 15.7 SwStr%, 34.8 CSW%
7. Hunter Greene (CIN): 15.6 SwStr%, 34.4 CSW%
8. Triston McKenzie (CLE): 16.4 SwStr%, 32.9 CSW%
9. Tyler Glasnow (TB): 17.2 SwStr%, 32.8 CSW%
10. Martin Perez (TEX): 13.0 SwStr%, 32.5 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Aaron Nola - 6.67 IP - 75.5 JA Points
2. Jesus Luzardo - 6.0 IP - 75.5 JA Points
3. Patrick Sandoval - 6.0 IP - 70.0 JA Points
4. Luis Severino - 7.0 IP - 65.0 JA Points
5. Sean Hjelle - 4.67 IP - 65.0 JA Points
6. Hunter Greene - 6.0 IP - 65.0 JA Points
7. Hayden Wesneski - 5.67 IP - 65.0 JA Points
8. Joe Musgrove - 6.0 IP - 57.75 JA Points
9. Triston McKenzie - 5.0 IP - 57.0 JA Points
10. Brandon Woodruff - 6.0 IP - 54.0 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 20.0 GS - 57.89 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 31.0 GS - 50.99 JA Points
3. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 31.0 GS - 50.54 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 27.0 GS - 49.87 JA Points
5. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 31.0 GS - 47.89 JA Points
6. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 28.0 GS - 47.89 JA Points
7. Blake Snell (SD) - 24.0 GS - 47.48 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 23.0 GS - 47.02 JA Points
9. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 27.0 GS - 46.74 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 24.0 GS - 45.89 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Adrian Martinez's SL velo (31 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 83.5
Jesus Luzardo's CH velo (21 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 88.8
Bailey Ober's CU velo (13 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 78.1
Luis Severino's FF velo (55 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 97.8
Joe Musgrove's FF velo (17 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 94.4
Kevin Herget's FF velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 91.4
George Kirby's FF velo (46 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 93.8
Jose Berrios's SI velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 92.3
Zack Greinke's CU velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 70.4
Dean Kremer's FF velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 91.8
Mitch Keller's SL velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 82.6
Triston McKenzie's SL velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 85.6
Dean Kremer's FC velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 86.2
Kevin Herget's FC velo (25 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 83.3
Dean Kremer's SI velo (14 pitches) DOWN -2.8mph to 89.1
Patrick Sandoval's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -3.7mph to 75.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Adrian Martinez's SL usage (38.3%) up 17.6 points
Brandon Woodruff's CH usage (26.0%) up 10.1 points
Bryan Garcia's CH usage (41.6%) up 20.1 points
Bryce Elder's SI usage (52.0%) up 10.9 points
Hunter Greene's FF usage (66.7%) up 13.4 points
Johnny Cueto's FC usage (38.8%) up 20.2 points
Johnny Cueto's FF usage (30.6%) up 11.7 points
Kevin Herget's FC usage (32.9%) up 22.6 points
Lance McCullers Jr.'s SL usage (42.6%) up 18.1 points
Luis Severino's FF usage (58.5%) up 11.5 points
Martin Perez's CH usage (37.7%) up 10.5 points
Patrick Sandoval's CH usage (40.2%) up 16.5 points
Patrick Sandoval's SI usage (26.8%) up 13.0 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 38.3% CSW%
Triston McKenzie - 99 TBF, 36.9% CSW%
Jacob deGrom - 87 TBF, 36.4% CSW%
Hunter Greene - 90 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 93 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Brandon Woodruff - 98 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 92 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Clayton Kershaw - 98 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Cristian Javier - 77 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Jeffrey Springs - 93 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 87 TBF, 44.8% K%
Hunter Greene - 90 TBF, 41.1% K%
Brandon Woodruff - 98 TBF, 38.8% K%
Cristian Javier - 77 TBF, 37.7% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 93 TBF, 37.6% K%
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 35.2% K%
Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 32.7% K%
Gerrit Cole - 92 TBF, 32.6% K%
Nestor Cortes - 87 TBF, 32.2% K%
Triston McKenzie - 99 TBF, 31.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 87 TBF, 40.2% K-BB%
Brandon Woodruff - 98 TBF, 33.7% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 90 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Jesus Luzardo - 93 TBF, 32.3% K-BB%
Triston McKenzie - 99 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Cristian Javier - 77 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 91 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 97 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 91 TBF, 24.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 80 TBF, 70.0% GB%
Eduardo Rodriguez - 80 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Kyle Wright - 91 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 104 TBF, 62.2% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 102 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Drey Jameson - 98 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Nick Lodolo - 93 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Shane Bieber - 103 TBF, 54.9% GB%
Bryce Elder - 78 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 118 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 101 TBF, 32.7 K%, 5.0 BB%, 48.4% GB%
Luis Castillo - 92 TBF, 28.3 K%, 7.6 BB%, 46.6% GB%
Triston McKenzie - 99 TBF, 31.3 K%, 1.0 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 52 TBF, 28.8 K%, 1.9 BB%, 63.9% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Kyle Gibson - +3.6% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Triston McKenzie - +8.1% CSW%, -7.1 BB%
Mitch Keller - +3.3% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +4.6% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Sandy Alcantara - +5.2% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Jordan Lyles - +3.7% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Cristian Javier - +4.7% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Zac Gallen - +2.3% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Reid Detmers - +2.1% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Edward Cabrera - +2.7% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Logan Webb - +2.8% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Corey Seager (TEX) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Enrique Hernandez (BOS) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Gio Urshela (MIN) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Kyle Schwarber - 5.0 PA - 84.0 JA Points
2. Giancarlo Stanton - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
3. Rafael Devers - 4.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
4. Bryson Stott - 4.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
5. Bryan De La Cruz - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
6. Gio Urshela - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
7. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
8. Wil Myers - 4.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
9. Wander Franco - 4.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
10. Sam Haggerty - 4.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 666.0 PA - 150.27 JA Points
2. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 540.0 PA - 143.11 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (SD) - 651.0 PA - 129.28 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 680.0 PA - 118.18 JA Points
5. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 533.0 PA - 103.04 JA Points
6. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 647.0 PA - 102.57 JA Points
7. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 553.0 PA - 102.21 JA Points
8. Alex Bregman (HOU) - 642.0 PA - 100.0 JA Points
9. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 589.0 PA - 88.62 JA Points
10. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 555.0 PA - 86.77 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 117.2mph - double
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 113.3mph - home_run
Trea Turner (LAD) - 113.1mph - foul
Jose Abreu (CWS) - 112.3mph - double
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 112.2mph - single
Joey Bart (SF) - 111.9mph - foul
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 111.3mph - double
Shea Langeliers (OAK) - 111.0mph - foul
Trayce Thompson (LAD) - 110.7mph - home_run
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 110.6mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 79 PA, 38 BIP, 14 Brls, 36.8 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 64 PA, 45 BIP, 12 Brls, 26.7 Brl%
Christopher Morel - 48 PA, 25 BIP, 6 Brls, 24.0 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 78 PA, 59 BIP, 14 Brls, 23.7 Brl%
Seth Brown - 72 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 66 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 65 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Trayce Thompson - 48 PA, 25 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Bryan De La Cruz - 73 PA, 55 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Gleyber Torres - 67 PA, 46 BIP, 9 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 79 PA, 0.524 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 64 PA, 0.464 xwOBA
Bryan De La Cruz - 73 PA, 0.461 xwOBA
Taylor Ward - 77 PA, 0.455 xwOBA
J.D. Davis - 51 PA, 0.444 xwOBA
Teoscar Hernandez - 78 PA, 0.44 xwOBA
Trayce Thompson - 48 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Gleyber Torres - 67 PA, 0.421 xwOBA
George Springer - 88 PA, 0.411 xwOBA
Christopher Morel - 48 PA, 0.408 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 62 PA, 105 Swings, 98.1 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 91 PA, 160 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 57 PA, 84 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 62 PA, 110 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 57 PA, 94 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 59 PA, 94 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 63 PA, 126 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 63 PA, 116 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Jose Altuve - 68 PA, 107 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Wander Franco - 83 PA, 140 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Albert Pujols - 62 PA, 17.7 K%, 18.6 Brl%
Lars Nootbaar - 57 PA, 19.3 K%, 15.4 Brl%
MJ Melendez - 84 PA, 19.0 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 73 PA, 15.1 K%, 17.3 Brl%
Taylor Ward - 77 PA, 18.2 K%, 18.6 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 64 PA, 18.8 K%, 26.7 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Kyle Schwarber - +13.8% Contact%, +5.4 mph exit velo, -3.1 Chase%
Bryan De La Cruz - +7.5% Contact%, +5.4 mph exit velo, -4.3 Chase%
Taylor Ward - +7.8% Contact%, +4.4 mph exit velo, -3.7 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Taylor Ward - 0.5 xwOBA, 22.2% Brl%, 77.7% Contact%, 17.4% Chase%, 15.5% K%
Triston Casas - 0.378 xwOBA, 10.0% Brl%, 77.9% Contact%, 19.8% Chase%, 20.8% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Jose Siri - 34.7% Whiff%, 90.0% Weak%, 0.957 Cold Rating
Tommy Edman - 33.9% Whiff%, 81.8% Weak%, 0.933 Cold Rating
Bubba Thompson - 33.0% Whiff%, 87.5% Weak%, 0.931 Cold Rating
Dermis Garcia - 39.4% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.883 Cold Rating
Christian Yelich - 29.4% Whiff%, 84.4% Weak%, 0.872 Cold Rating
Jake McCarthy - 30.6% Whiff%, 76.7% Weak%, 0.858 Cold Rating
Shea Langeliers - 35.6% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.847 Cold Rating
Corbin Carroll - 31.6% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.845 Cold Rating
Jorge Mateo - 29.0% Whiff%, 78.1% Weak%, 0.844 Cold Rating
Harrison Bader - 31.3% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.837 Cold Rating
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