MLB Daily Notes: Tuesday, September 6
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
The most interesting thing to happen yesterday was the start from Hunter Brown, the Astros rookie who made his MLB debut.
He threw six scoreless innings against the Rangers, giving up just three hits while striking out five and walking one. The SwStr% wasn’t very convincing at just 10.1%, but it was a good outing nonetheless.
He threw the fastball half the time, but it’s a heavy fastball (96.1 mph average) and only one hitter was able to get it into the air. The secondary stuff is a curveball and a slider, the slider is thrown really hard at 93 miles per hour. That’s tied for the hardest slider in the business.
Fastest Sliders, MLB 2022
Jacob deGrom 93.0
Hunter Brown 93.0
Sam Coonrod 93.0
Emmanuel Clase 91.9
Elvis Peguero 91.0
High velocity on a slider is nice, I suppose, but it doesn’t really seem highly correlated with success. Obviously, deGrom and Clase have amazing sliders from that list, but Coonrod’s isn’t very good (13.3% SwStr%, 30.0% CSW%). It’s an interesting pitch mix for sure and someone to keep an eye on. I think his lack of job security is reason enough to leave him alone for this year, but keep this name in the back of your head for next year.
Three barrels and two dingers for Bo Bichette yesterday. That’s a name we haven’t talked about much here. He’s gone .270/.314/.451 with 21 HR and 9 SB this year, a step down from his rookie year last year when he went .298/.343/.484 with 29 HR and 25 SB. He is also likely going to come in well behind the 121 runs and 102 RBI he had last year, he’s probably more like a late-second-round pick next year as compared to the mid-first-rounder he was this year.
Blake Snell was once again incredible and really has been a fantasy ace since sometime in July. He has a 2.88 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, a 36% K%, and a BB% under 9% since July 1st. Since August 1st, he has really cut down the walks at 5.1%. We know he’s a Cy Young-esque level pitcher when he’s limiting walks. The problem is that the walks can come back with no forewarning. I’ll never feel fully confident about him - but the sky is the limit with how good his fastball and slider are, and fantasy managers have been majorly rewarded for holding tight to him this year.
I would absolutely 100% not recommend drafting him next year, though.
I opened a DraftKings league to run NFL contests, and we can roll that right into NBA/MLB season as well if we get enough participation. Join it here. If that link doesn’t work, just DM me your DraftKings user name and I’ll invite you.
NFL stuff coming at you this week, and there will be no slow down on the MLB notes until the season is over. Thanks for being here - check out the rest of the report.
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Blake Snell (SD): 20.4 SwStr%, 39.8 CSW%
2. Lance Lynn (CWS): 28.1 SwStr%, 39.3 CSW%
3. Andrew Heaney (LAD): 21.1 SwStr%, 37.8 CSW%
4. Ryne Nelson (ARI): 11.5 SwStr%, 34.5 CSW%
5. Jose Suarez (LAA): 16.3 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
6. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 11.8 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
7. Jack Flaherty (STL): 15.4 SwStr%, 30.8 CSW%
8. Luis Patino (TB): 15.4 SwStr%, 30.8 CSW%
9. Hunter Brown (HOU): 10.1 SwStr%, 30.4 CSW%
10. Marco Gonzales (SEA): 13.5 SwStr%, 30.2 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Lance Lynn - 7.0 IP - 102.0 JA Points
2. Blake Snell - 6.0 IP - 77.0 JA Points
3. Jose Suarez - 7.0 IP - 65.25 JA Points
4. Ryne Nelson - 7.0 IP - 62.75 JA Points
5. Michael Wacha - 6.0 IP - 54.0 JA Points
6. Andrew Heaney - 5.33 IP - 51.0 JA Points
7. Ryan Feltner - 5.33 IP - 46.5 JA Points
8. Kevin Gausman - 6.67 IP - 44.5 JA Points
9. Jack Flaherty - 5.0 IP - 41.75 JA Points
10. Luis Patino - 5.0 IP - 40.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 17.0 GS - 57.59 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 24.0 GS - 51.93 JA Points
3. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 27.0 GS - 51.21 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 23.0 GS - 50.36 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 27.0 GS - 48.26 JA Points
6. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 27.0 GS - 48.25 JA Points
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 27.0 GS - 47.51 JA Points
8. Blake Snell (SD) - 19.0 GS - 46.77 JA Points
9. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 20.0 GS - 46.76 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 20.0 GS - 45.34 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Ryan Feltner's CU velo (11 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 79.5
Jack Flaherty's FF velo (47 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 94.0
Mike Baumann's SL velo (30 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 91.4
Marco Gonzales's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 77.9
Anibal Sanchez's CH velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 79.0
Michael Wacha's CH velo (27 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 82.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Blake Snell's SL usage (38.8%) up 16.3 points
Bruce Zimmermann's SI usage (28.3%) up 19.8 points
Jose Berrios's CH usage (30.8%) up 17.2 points
Jose Suarez's SL usage (29.3%) up 12.6 points
Lance Lynn's CU usage (22.5%) up 14.2 points
Marco Gonzales's FC usage (31.2%) up 13.2 points
Mike Baumann's SL usage (42.3%) up 21.9 points
Ryan Feltner's SI usage (32.6%) up 17.1 points
Triston McKenzie's SL usage (32.7%) up 11.6 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 72 TBF, 37.8% CSW%
Andrew Heaney - 92 TBF, 37.7% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 82 TBF, 36.8% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 79 TBF, 36.1% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 94 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Corey Kluber - 97 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 79 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Ross Stripling - 94 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Jakob Junis - 94 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 42.7% K%
Andrew Heaney - 92 TBF, 39.1% K%
Jacob deGrom - 72 TBF, 37.5% K%
Charlie Morton - 94 TBF, 36.2% K%
Carlos Rodon - 94 TBF, 35.1% K%
Lance Lynn - 96 TBF, 34.4% K%
Zac Gallen - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Blake Snell - 89 TBF, 32.6% K%
Triston McKenzie - 93 TBF, 32.3% K%
Drew Rasmussen - 65 TBF, 32.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 38.7% K-BB%
Andrew Heaney - 92 TBF, 35.9% K-BB%
Jacob deGrom - 72 TBF, 34.7% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 96 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 82 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Drew Rasmussen - 65 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 94 TBF, 28.7% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 94 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 97 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 94 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Cobb - 73 TBF, 71.7% GB%
Framber Valdez - 85 TBF, 67.9% GB%
Max Fried - 91 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 88 TBF, 63.2% GB%
JT Brubaker - 76 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Jordan Montgomery - 99 TBF, 59.7% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 101 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Shane Bieber - 79 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Kyle Wright - 75 TBF, 56.0% GB%
Chris Archer - 77 TBF, 55.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
George Kirby - 83 TBF, 27.7 K%, 2.4 BB%, 54.4% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 71 TBF, 28.2 K%, 4.2 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Kyle Wright - 75 TBF, 28.0 K%, 5.3 BB%, 56.0% GB%
Luis Castillo - 76 TBF, 28.9 K%, 3.9 BB%, 55.1% GB%
Ross Stripling - 94 TBF, 28.7 K%, 4.3 BB%, 48.4% GB%
Shane Bieber - 79 TBF, 30.4 K%, 5.1 BB%, 56.9% GB%
Zac Gallen - 94 TBF, 34.0 K%, 5.3 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Corey Kluber - +3.7% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Lance Lynn - +5.4% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Zac Gallen - +2.9% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Ross Stripling - +5.3% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Andrew Heaney - +7.1% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Aaron Nola - +4.1% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Patrick Sandoval - +5.5% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
JT Brubaker - +2.9% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Spencer Strider - +2.1% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Bailey Falter - +3.3% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Jakob Junis - +2.7% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Daniel Norris - +3.2% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Bo Bichette (TOR) 10 PA, 19 Swings, 3 Barrels, 3 HR
Aaron Judge (NYY) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Adley Rutschman (BAL) 9 PA, 14 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Anthony Santander (BAL) 9 PA, 21 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Drew Waters (KC) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) 8 PA, 15 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Bo Bichette - 5.0 PA - 81.0 JA Points
2. Shohei Ohtani - 5.0 PA - 61.0 JA Points
3. Lane Thomas - 6.0 PA - 59.0 JA Points
4. Keibert Ruiz - 5.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
5. Aaron Judge - 4.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
6. Victor Caratini - 4.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
7. Anthony Santander - 4.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
8. Alex Verdugo - 5.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
9. Adley Rutschman - 5.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
10. Mike Trout - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 566.0 PA - 141.41 JA Points
2. Juan Soto (SD) - 553.0 PA - 135.41 JA Points
3. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 454.0 PA - 133.66 JA Points
4. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 559.0 PA - 113.49 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 590.0 PA - 111.12 JA Points
6. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 450.0 PA - 105.78 JA Points
7. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 496.0 PA - 103.95 JA Points
8. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 307.0 PA - 97.85 JA Points
9. Alex Bregman (HOU) - 547.0 PA - 96.45 JA Points
10. Will Smith (LAD) - 478.0 PA - 94.06 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Gary Sanchez (MIN) - 115.1mph - home_run
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 112.9mph - grounded_into_double_play
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 112.8mph - single
Spencer Torkelson (DET) - 112.3mph - foul
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) - 111.6mph - field_out
Lane Thomas (WSH) - 111.6mph - foul
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 111.4mph - home_run
Yu Chang (TB) - 111.3mph - double
Mike Trout (LAA) - 111.0mph - home_run
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 110.4mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 78 PA, 43 BIP, 12 Brls, 27.9 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 72 PA, 43 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Oneil Cruz - 60 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 56 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Luke Voit - 66 PA, 43 BIP, 8 Brls, 18.6 Brl%
Nathaniel Lowe - 82 PA, 63 BIP, 11 Brls, 17.5 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 81 PA, 54 BIP, 9 Brls, 16.7 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 49 PA, 24 BIP, 4 Brls, 16.7 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 73 PA, 42 BIP, 7 Brls, 16.7 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 62 PA, 43 BIP, 7 Brls, 16.3 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 78 PA, 0.486 xwOBA
Nathaniel Lowe - 82 PA, 0.484 xwOBA
Eloy Jimenez - 66 PA, 0.441 xwOBA
Yandy Diaz - 73 PA, 0.438 xwOBA
Cal Raleigh - 56 PA, 0.436 xwOBA
Justin Turner - 72 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 72 PA, 0.426 xwOBA
Joc Pederson - 52 PA, 0.42 xwOBA
Bo Bichette - 87 PA, 0.413 xwOBA
Jose Altuve - 76 PA, 0.405 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 80 PA, 139 Swings, 94.2 Cont%
Nick Madrigal - 66 PA, 113 Swings, 92.9 Cont%
Santiago Espinal - 47 PA, 92 Swings, 92.4 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 76 PA, 115 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 54 PA, 82 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 73 PA, 131 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Brendan Donovan - 64 PA, 93 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 59 PA, 100 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Josh Naylor - 68 PA, 126 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
David Fletcher - 83 PA, 114 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Anthony Santander - 86 PA, 18.6 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Bo Bichette - 87 PA, 19.5 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 56 PA, 17.9 K%, 21.1 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 66 PA, 13.6 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Lars Nootbaar - 90 PA, 14.4 K%, 15.3 Brl%
Matt Olson - 74 PA, 16.2 K%, 14.5 Brl%
Mookie Betts - 82 PA, 14.6 K%, 14.5 Brl%
Nathaniel Lowe - 82 PA, 14.6 K%, 17.5 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 78 PA, 15.4 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Tyler O'Neill - 85 PA, 15.3 K%, 15.0 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Julio Rodriguez - +5.8% Contact%, +7.0 mph exit velo, -7.2 Chase%
Bo Bichette - +10.7% Contact%, +5.2 mph exit velo, -4.7 Chase%
Sean Murphy - +6.8% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -4.4 Chase%
Yuli Gurriel - +6.8% Contact%, +6.1 mph exit velo, -6.0 Chase%
Nicky Lopez - +6.7% Contact%, +4.3 mph exit velo, -6.6 Chase%
Vimael Machin - +7.8% Contact%, +5.8 mph exit velo, -3.9 Chase%
Michael Harris II - +15.4% Contact%, +7.7 mph exit velo, -11.8 Chase%
Cal Raleigh - +10.5% Contact%, +6.0 mph exit velo, -11.7 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Carlos Correa - 0.398 xwOBA, 14.3% Brl%, 84.0% Contact%, 20.6% Chase%, 15.3% K%
Nathaniel Lowe - 0.491 xwOBA, 18.2% Brl%, 85.2% Contact%, 20.8% Chase%, 10.7% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Jose Barrero - 31.1% Whiff%, 79.2% Weak%, 0.923 Cold Rating
Jo Adell - 36.9% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.917 Cold Rating
Emmanuel Rivera - 42.7% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.913 Cold Rating
Gilberto Celestino - 31.0% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.894 Cold Rating
Jose Siri - 32.5% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.868 Cold Rating
Trea Turner - 29.7% Whiff%, 73.8% Weak%, 0.852 Cold Rating
Bryan Reynolds - 35.4% Whiff%, 67.7% Weak%, 0.849 Cold Rating
Taylor Walls - 28.1% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.848 Cold Rating
Cody Bellinger - 31.5% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.84 Cold Rating
Josh Donaldson - 28.7% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.838 Cold Rating
Now to the paid stuff. For $7/month or $70/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to
NFL Dashboards, Notes, Reports, Write-Ups, and Projections!!
Minor League Stat Dashboards
Daily Projections (with DraftKings salaries & scores) Excel & a Tableau Dashboard)
Strikeout Prop Model Comparisons. Compares my K projection with FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook betting lines
My personal DraftKings player pools and cash lineups (not every day but when I have time!)
Daily hitter matchup ratings
Plate Discipline leaderboard
More Magic Formula Qualifiers
Pitch Mix and Velo Changes Tracker
Full daily and season-long pitcher and hitter data reports
Full access to my daily-updated algorithmic hitter and pitcher rankings
Offseason reviews & previews of every single fantasy-relevant player
More stuff added throughout the year as ideas come to me
Premium Features - SAMPLES
Here are some samples of what you get with the paid subscription, for anybody on the fence!
SAMPLE K Prop Comparison Sheet
SAMPLE JA Algorithm - Season Hitter Ranks
SAMPLE DraftKings Hitter Scoring Analysis
You get all of that updated daily (projections updated throughout the day as lineups come out) for just $7/month or $70/year - along with a ton more stuff.