MLB Daily Notes - Wednesday April 20th
The daily projections yesterday, along with my analysis of Justin Steele, put me on a Rays stack on DraftKings last night, and your boy took second in the $22K Knuckleball for a $1,000 payday!
Of course, all of the credit must go to the projections, because that will help me sell them to you people who haven’t purchased them yet. If you want to win $1,000 every single night of your life, become a paid member here.
Just a reminder, here’s what you get for your $5/month or $40/year:
Daily projections + Tableau dashboard to view them
MLB 2022 Tableau Dashboard that has literally every stat and split you can imagine, as well as pitch and batted ball visualizations
Weekly projections
Access to my algorithm’s daily updated pitcher and hitter ranks
Custom data reports like pitch type breakdowns, new pitch trackers, and much more
Here’s a quick look at the pitch plotting tool I added to the dashboard yesterday. Here’s how Max Fried attacked Dodgers righties last night
You can see on the right there all the customizations you can do there to see whatever pitches you’re looking for.
And here’s a couple more examples of what you can do with the Dashboard, staying focused on Fried. Here is the game log tab I’ve developed:
and here’s the arsenal breakdown tab:
You can control everything for opponent, splits, date ranges, etc.
Okay let’s get to the notes!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 20.4 SwStr%, 44.4 CSW%
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 15.9 SwStr%, 37.4 CSW%
3. Joe Musgrove (SD): 13.8 SwStr%, 37.2 CSW%
4. Josiah Gray (WSH): 11.5 SwStr%, 36.8 CSW%
5. Max Scherzer (NYM): 14.7 SwStr%, 34.3 CSW%
6. Framber Valdez (HOU): 15.0 SwStr%, 31.2 CSW%
7. JT Brubaker (PIT): 10.6 SwStr%, 30.9 CSW%
8. Max Fried (ATL): 14.0 SwStr%, 30.1 CSW%
9. Tyler Gilbert (ARI): 8.2 SwStr%, 28.8 CSW%
10. Nathan Eovaldi (BOS): 8.4 SwStr%, 28.4 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Corbin Burnes - 7.0 IP - 83.75 JA Points
2. Max Scherzer - 7.0 IP - 72.5 JA Points
3. Max Fried - 7.0 IP - 66.5 JA Points
4. Joe Musgrove - 6.33 IP - 54.25 JA Points
5. Clarke Schmidt - 3.33 IP - 53.0 JA Points
6. Josiah Gray - 5.0 IP - 50.75 JA Points
7. JT Brubaker - 5.0 IP - 45.0 JA Points
8. Alex Cobb - 4.33 IP - 42.25 JA Points
9. Robbie Ray - 6.0 IP - 38.5 JA Points
10. Adam Wainwright - 5.67 IP - 36.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Nestor Cortes (NYY) - 2.0 GS - 68.04 JA Points
2. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) - 2.0 GS - 59.79 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 3.0 GS - 57.44 JA Points
4. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 2.0 GS - 56.88 JA Points
5. Kyle Wright (ATL) - 2.0 GS - 55.8 JA Points
6. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 2.0 GS - 54.96 JA Points
7. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 2.0 GS - 54.14 JA Points
8. Andrew Heaney (LAD) - 2.0 GS - 53.83 JA Points
9. Josh Fleming (TB) - 1.0 GS - 49.0 JA Points
10. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 2.0 GS - 48.9 JA Points
Velo Changes
Max Fried's SL velo (21 pitches) UP 3.4mph to 88.2
Tylor Megill's CH velo (19 pitches) UP 2.9mph to 88.8
Yusei Kikuchi's SL velo (18 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 85.0
Joan Adon's CU velo (25 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 78.1
Alex Cobb's SI velo (25 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 94.7
Chris Archer's SL velo (46 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 89.2
Alex Cobb's FS velo (29 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 89.3
JT Brubaker's CU velo (20 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 81.1
Max Fried's CH velo (15 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 86.3
Max Scherzer's FC velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 88.7
Josiah Gray's FF velo (47 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 92.8
Max Scherzer's CH velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 83.1
Logan Webb's SI velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 90.9
Robbie Ray's FF velo (49 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 92.7
Josiah Gray's CU velo (30 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 81.6
Jon Gray's SL velo (33 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 84.6
Josh Fleming's FC velo (21 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 83.7
Clarke Schmidt's SL velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 84.2
Pitch Mix Changes
Chris Archer's SL usage (60.5%) up 11.8 points
Clarke Schmidt's KC usage (38.9%) up 14.9 points
Cole Irvin's SI usage (30.5%) up 11.1 points
Corbin Burnes's FC usage (63.6%) up 10.3 points
Gerrit Cole's FC usage (14.7%) up 14.2 points
JT Brubaker's SI usage (43.6%) up 18.5 points
JT Brubaker's CU usage (21.3%) up 11.2 points
Jesus Luzardo's CU usage (40.9%) up 11.4 points
Joan Adon's CU usage (28.4%) up 27.9 points
Joe Musgrove's SL usage (38.3%) up 10.7 points
Madison Bumgarner's FC usage (62.7%) up 26.3 points
Max Fried's CH usage (16.1%) up 13.7 points
Patrick Sandoval's FF usage (42.4%) up 18.0 points
Reiver Sanmartin's SI usage (30.2%) up 12.4 points
Tyler Gilbert's FS usage (24.7%) up 18.4 points
Walker Buehler's FC usage (31.6%) up 15.2 points
Yusei Kikuchi's FF usage (56.0%) up 20.5 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane McClanahan - 59 TBF, 39.1% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 69 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 71 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Max Scherzer - 69 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Josiah Gray - 58 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
Kyle Hendricks - 65 TBF, 31.9% CSW%
Tylor Megill - 63 TBF, 31.2% CSW%
Gerrit Cole - 50 TBF, 31.2% CSW%
Yu Darvish - 62 TBF, 31.0% CSW%
Adam Wainwright - 68 TBF, 30.9% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane McClanahan - 59 TBF, 40.7% K%
Max Scherzer - 69 TBF, 33.3% K%
Corbin Burnes - 71 TBF, 31.0% K%
Josiah Gray - 58 TBF, 31.0% K%
Joe Musgrove - 69 TBF, 30.4% K%
Nathan Eovaldi - 65 TBF, 29.2% K%
Adam Wainwright - 68 TBF, 27.9% K%
Tyler Mahle - 58 TBF, 27.6% K%
Kyle Gibson - 69 TBF, 27.5% K%
Sean Manaea - 71 TBF, 26.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane McClanahan - 59 TBF, 32.2% K-BB%
Joe Musgrove - 69 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 71 TBF, 25.4% K-BB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 65 TBF, 24.6% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 69 TBF, 23.2% K-BB%
Max Fried - 71 TBF, 22.5% K-BB%
Adam Wainwright - 68 TBF, 22.1% K-BB%
Tylor Megill - 63 TBF, 20.6% K-BB%
Frankie Montas - 68 TBF, 20.6% K-BB%
Kyle Gibson - 69 TBF, 20.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 62 TBF, 71.8% GB%
Aaron Nola - 62 TBF, 64.1% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 59 TBF, 62.1% GB%
Logan Webb - 71 TBF, 60.7% GB%
Tylor Megill - 63 TBF, 52.2% GB%
Kyle Freeland - 68 TBF, 52.0% GB%
Max Fried - 71 TBF, 51.9% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 69 TBF, 51.1% GB%
Reiver Sanmartin - 55 TBF, 48.8% GB%
Frankie Montas - 68 TBF, 47.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Cobb - 40 TBF, 35.0 K%, 5.0 BB%, 70.8% GB%
Andrew Heaney - 40 TBF, 40.0 K%, 7.5 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 44 TBF, 31.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Jhoan Duran - 26 TBF, 42.3 K%, 7.7 BB%, 53.8% GB%
Josh Fleming - 45 TBF, 28.9 K%, 4.4 BB%, 66.7% GB%
Keegan Thompson - 34 TBF, 29.4 K%, 5.9 BB%, 61.9% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 69 TBF, 27.5 K%, 7.2 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Kyle Wright - 42 TBF, 35.7 K%, 2.4 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Luis Severino - 35 TBF, 31.4 K%, 5.7 BB%, 52.4% GB%
Victor Arano - 25 TBF, 48.0 K%, 0.0 BB%, 61.5% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Mike Yastrzemski (SF) 7 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Salvador Perez (KC) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Salvador Perez - 4.0 PA - 42.75 JA Points
2. Wander Franco - 5.0 PA - 36.0 JA Points
3. Anthony Rizzo - 5.0 PA - 28.5 JA Points
4. Orlando Arcia - 4.0 PA - 28.5 JA Points
5. C.J. Cron - 4.0 PA - 26.75 JA Points
6. Josh VanMeter - 3.0 PA - 26.25 JA Points
7. Manny Machado - 4.0 PA - 23.25 JA Points
8. Jesse Winker - 4.0 PA - 22.0 JA Points
9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 4.0 PA - 22.0 JA Points
10. Elvis Andrus - 4.0 PA - 21.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 40.0 PA - 122.75 JA Points
2. Nolan Arenado (STL) - 39.0 PA - 110.51 JA Points
3. Seiya Suzuki (CHC) - 41.0 PA - 108.29 JA Points
4. Matt Olson (ATL) - 58.0 PA - 86.72 JA Points
5. Wander Franco (TB) - 49.0 PA - 85.92 JA Points
6. Alex Verdugo (BOS) - 41.0 PA - 85.61 JA Points
7. Steven Kwan (CLE) - 37.0 PA - 77.3 JA Points
8. Juan Soto (WSH) - 58.0 PA - 74.83 JA Points
9. Jeremy Pena (HOU) - 41.0 PA - 72.68 JA Points
10. Gavin Lux (LAD) - 37.0 PA - 71.35 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls - Yesterday
David Peralta (ARI) - 115.1mph - foul
Nelson Cruz (WSH) - 114.6mph - foul
Rowdy Tellez (MIL) - 114.2mph - home_run
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 113.4mph - single
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) - 112.0mph - double
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 111.7mph - single
Bryce Harper (PHI) - 111.6mph - field_out
Joey Gallo (NYY) - 110.8mph - foul
Jarred Kelenic (SEA) - 110.2mph - home_run
Aledmys Diaz (HOU) - 110.2mph - field_out
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Seiya Suzuki - 41 PA, 21 BIP, 6 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Giancarlo Stanton - 45 PA, 29 BIP, 8 Brls, 27.6 Brl%
Jose Abreu - 37 PA, 23 BIP, 6 Brls, 26.1 Brl%
Salvador Perez - 37 PA, 27 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.9 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 46 PA, 27 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.9 Brl%
Jo Adell - 40 PA, 20 BIP, 5 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 41 PA, 25 BIP, 6 Brls, 24.0 Brl%
Patrick Wisdom - 40 PA, 22 BIP, 5 Brls, 22.7 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 39 PA, 18 BIP, 4 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Rhys Hoskins - 46 PA, 24 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 37 PA, 57 Swings, 94.7 Cont%
Amed Rosario - 39 PA, 62 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 40 PA, 71 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 43 PA, 70 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Nick Madrigal - 39 PA, 59 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 47 PA, 89 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Myles Straw - 44 PA, 61 Swings, 86.9 Cont%
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 41 PA, 75 Swings, 86.7 Cont%
Kolten Wong - 46 PA, 94 Swings, 86.2 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 36 PA, 71 Swings, 85.9 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Anthony Rizzo - 46 PA, 15.2 K%, 17.9 Brl%
Brandon Crawford - 39 PA, 17.9 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Gavin Lux - 37 PA, 16.2 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Jeremy Pena - 41 PA, 17.1 K%, 20.0 Brl%
Jose Ramirez - 40 PA, 5.0 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Luis Robert - 37 PA, 8.1 K%, 15.2 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 54 PA, 13.0 K%, 15.2 Brl%
Mike Trout - 37 PA, 16.2 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Nolan Arenado - 39 PA, 10.3 K%, 16.7 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 36 PA, 19.4 K%, 15.4 Brl%
No on to the paid stuff!