MLB Daily Notes: Wednesday, August 3

Aug 04, 2022

Introduction / Explanation For New Readers

Gerrit Cole got roughed up in the first inning but bounced back and lead the day in CSW%. Baseball is weird, man! He went for a 22.3% SwStr% and an 8:1 K:BB ratio, just got barreled up a few times at all the wrong times. No worries on Cole.

Joe Ryan had a great outing with five innings (78 pitches), giving up just one run on three hits and striking out NINE while not walking anybody. Good to see him get back to business after he had been inconsistent since returning from the IL. For the year:

29.3% CSW%
12.6% SwStr%
23.9% K%
6.7% BB%
8.8% Brl%

The calling card on him had always been a great K-BB ratio, and that’s gotten worse this year.

2021: 26.2 IP, 30% K%, 5.0% BB%
2022: 90.2 IP, 23.9% K%, 6.7% BB%

Not surprising to see him unable to replicate the 25% K-BB over a bigger sample of facing Major League hitters, but given the youth and the injury problems he’s had, he’s still a pretty interesting pitcher for the future.

Jose Urquidy went off, striking out 10 Red Sox over six scoreless innings.

The 15.5% SwStr% isn’t close to his bad season mark of 11.4% - so we need to see a lot more to suddenly call Urquidy anything more than a mediocre strikeout pitcher.

No real changes in the pitch mix yesterday:

Just had a good whiff day with both the fastball and the changeup and took advantage of a beat-up Red Sox lineup. If you’ve been starting him since June, you’ve been profiting off of it - and I suppose there’s no reason to stop now - although I always prefer to not roster pitchers with strikeout rates below 20%.

Lance Lynn had his best outing of the yar with a 19.1% SwStr% and a 31.5% CSW%,g giving up just one run, striking out eight and walking none. He threw the cutter more yesterday and it worked pretty nicely.

On the other side of that game was Brady Singer who failed to roll a six this time (shout out to you if you know what I’m talking about!).

He went for a strong 30% CSW%, but a bad 10% SwStr% and struck out just 10.7% of hitters he faced. There was a rain delay in the game and the White Sox have been swinging good bats lately, so it’s not exactly a dagger start for Singer that should cause you to bench him or something - but it’s not what the short-sighted people were expecting after three elite starts in a row.

The worst pitchers of the day by the JA model:

Chad Kuhl
Tyler Beede
Tommy Henry
Rich Hill
Brady Singer

The JA ranking algorithm really doesn’t like Sandy Alcantara, which would logically mean some combination of things from this list being true

Alcantara isn’t as good as we think
The JA ranking algorithm sucks ass
Alcantara is a statistical outlier

I think we’ve seen enough to throw that first bullet point out, and I would say the real answer is a combination of 2 and 3 there. If you had to pick one stat to predict on-field performance (namely ERA) with, your best choice would probably be K-BB%. Well, Alcantara isn’t good in that category and never really has been. He’s at 16.9% right now while the league leaders are in the high-twenties (Ohtani actually leads the league at 30.3%).

But it’s not impossible to put up an elite ERA with a mediocre K-BB%, and it’s not just always explained by good luck either. Some guys just have that special ability to generate weak contact consistently and prevent damage that way. It’s not an easy thing to do, but not impossible. If you’re trying to raise your kid to be a Major League pitcher, I highly advise that you tell him he needs a great K-BB ratio rather than telling him to try to generate weak contact. Aspire to be Aaron Nola, not a Sandy Alcantara - do what is more likely to work - don’t aspire to be an outlier. Don’t major in the arts, is what I’m trying to tell you. Major in Data Science, learn Python, run 10Ks, read books, get married, have kids - your life will be amazing. Just do everything I do and nothing I don’t.

Freddy Peralta threw just 67 pitches and it wasn’t great, but you can forgive him. His velocity was UP two mph on the fastball - so that’s pretty huge. Maybe he was just hyped to be back, I don’t know - but it’s a positive indicator about his health.

The young Guardian outfielder Oscar Gonzalez had a nice game and has been good since returning from the IL. He’s now hitting .290/.319/.456 on the year with a strong 21.7% K% and a 6.9% Brl%. The 72.5% contact rate is fine, but he’s hit a ton fo ground-balls (53%). He’ll need to get some more balls into the air to be a real fantasy contributor, but he’s shown some good signs this year.

Jarred Kelenic came back and took Gerrit Cole deep, and added a second barrel later in the game. Let’s check on him since returning!

13 PA
25 swings
10 whiffs (60% contact%)
5 K
0 BB

Okay, it’s 13 PAs let’s take it easy, but nothing has changed yet with the contact rate - which we really need to see improvement on to believe in him ever again.

On with the rest of the report!

CSW% Leaders - Yesterday

1. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 22.3 SwStr%, 39.8 CSW%

2. Joe Ryan (MIN): 23.1 SwStr%, 39.7 CSW%

3. Charlie Morton (ATL): 17.8 SwStr%, 36.6 CSW%

4. Jose Urquidy (HOU): 15.5 SwStr%, 36.1 CSW%

5. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 18.2 SwStr%, 34.3 CSW%

6. Chris Bassitt (NYM): 11.7 SwStr%, 33.0 CSW%

7. Martin Perez (TEX): 15.8 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%

8. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 16.7 SwStr%, 32.2 CSW%

9. Tyler Alexander (DET): 18.2 SwStr%, 31.8 CSW%

10. Lance Lynn (CWS): 19.1 SwStr%, 31.5 CSW%

Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday

1. Jose Urquidy - 7.0 IP - 92.5 JA Points

2. Joe Ryan - 5.0 IP - 84.0 JA Points

3. Lance Lynn - 6.0 IP - 69.25 JA Points

4. Shane Bieber - 6.0 IP - 68.75 JA Points

5. Gerrit Cole - 6.0 IP - 68.75 JA Points

6. Charlie Morton - 6.67 IP - 68.75 JA Points

7. Julio Urias - 6.0 IP - 64.25 JA Points

8. Blake Snell - 6.0 IP - 60.75 JA Points

9. Martin Perez - 6.0 IP - 58.0 JA Points

10. Zack Wheeler - 7.0 IP - 56.75 JA Points

Pitcher JA Scores - Season

1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 12 GS - 56.38 JA Points

2. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 20 GS - 54.15 JA Points

3. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 18 GS - 53.98 JA Points

4. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 21 GS - 53.93 JA Points

5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 21 GS - 52.1 JA Points

6. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 15 GS - 50.26 JA Points

7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 22 GS - 49.01 JA Points

8. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 21 GS - 48.05 JA Points

9. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 14 GS - 46.3 JA Points

10. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 14 GS - 45.7 JA Points

Velo Changes - Yesterday

Freddy Peralta's FF velo (36 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 94.7

Luis Castillo's SI velo (39 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 98.3

Gerrit Cole's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 84.4

James Kaprielian's CH velo (10 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 86.2

Kyle Bradish's CU velo (18 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 83.7

Gerrit Cole's SL velo (14 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 90.0

James Kaprielian's SL velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 83.0

Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday

Alex Cobb's FS usage (54.5%) up 11.3 points

Chad Kuhl's CU usage (26.1%) up 14.6 points

Charlie Morton's FF usage (47.5%) up 13.9 points

Chris Bassitt's SI usage (40.4%) up 10.6 points

Gerrit Cole's FF usage (61.2%) up 11.4 points

Joe Ryan's FF usage (79.5%) up 21.8 points

Jose Urquidy's SL usage (20.6%) up 10.2 points

Lance Lynn's FC usage (32.6%) up 10.5 points

Luis Castillo's SI usage (35.8%) up 14.6 points

Martin Perez's CH usage (46.3%) up 18.6 points

Mike Minor's CH usage (41.5%) up 18.3 points

Mike Minor's CU usage (18.3%) up 10.6 points

Sandy Alcantara's SI usage (36.2%) up 11.9 points

Shane Bieber's FC usage (28.7%) up 18.7 points

Shohei Ohtani's SL usage (61.6%) up 27.1 points

Tyler Alexander's FF usage (36.4%) up 17.3 points

CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 37.8% CSW%

Braxton Garrett - 93 TBF, 36.0% CSW%

Brady Singer - 75 TBF, 35.7% CSW%

Aaron Nola - 80 TBF, 35.5% CSW%

Shane Bieber - 77 TBF, 35.2% CSW%

Joe Ryan - 66 TBF, 35.0% CSW%

Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 34.9% CSW%

Charlie Morton - 72 TBF, 33.8% CSW%

Brandon Woodruff - 75 TBF, 33.5% CSW%

Kyle Wright - 81 TBF, 33.0% CSW%

K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Braxton Garrett - 93 TBF, 39.8% K%

Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 38.2% K%

Carlos Rodon - 95 TBF, 35.8% K%

Reid Detmers - 69 TBF, 34.8% K%

Joe Ryan - 66 TBF, 34.8% K%

Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 34.4% K%

Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 34.3% K%

Yu Darvish - 107 TBF, 33.6% K%

Brady Singer - 75 TBF, 33.3% K%

Corbin Burnes - 100 TBF, 32.0% K%

K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 35.5% K-BB%

Braxton Garrett - 93 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%

Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 31.4% K-BB%

Joe Ryan - 66 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%

Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%

Lance Lynn - 90 TBF, 30.0% K-BB%

Carlos Rodon - 95 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%

Brady Singer - 75 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%

Yu Darvish - 107 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%

Aaron Nola - 80 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%

GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Framber Valdez - 84 TBF, 69.1% GB%

Andre Pallante - 68 TBF, 61.7% GB%

Alex Cobb - 102 TBF, 61.5% GB%

Chris Bassitt - 80 TBF, 60.7% GB%

Logan Webb - 98 TBF, 60.0% GB%

Carlos Carrasco - 70 TBF, 60.0% GB%

Zac Gallen - 69 TBF, 59.6% GB%

Antonio Senzatela - 74 TBF, 58.5% GB%

Nathan Eovaldi - 94 TBF, 58.1% GB%

Jose Urena - 87 TBF, 55.4% GB%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks

Aaron Ashby - 56 TBF, 30.4 K%, 7.1 BB%, 45.7% GB%

Alex Cobb - 102 TBF, 29.4 K%, 5.9 BB%, 61.5% GB%

Braxton Garrett - 93 TBF, 39.8 K%, 6.5 BB%, 48.9% GB%

Merrill Kelly - 73 TBF, 27.4 K%, 2.7 BB%, 51.0% GB%

Pablo Lopez - 66 TBF, 27.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 47.7% GB%

Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career

Gerrit Cole - +4.2% CSW%, -3.0 BB%

Lance Lynn - +3.1% CSW%, -5.3 BB%

Shohei Ohtani - +3.0% CSW%, -5.0 BB%

Brady Singer - +4.0% CSW%, -2.7 BB%

Triston McKenzie - +3.2% CSW%, -2.3 BB%

Merrill Kelly - +2.6% CSW%, -3.4 BB%

Mitch Keller - +3.8% CSW%, -3.5 BB%

Jake Odorizzi - +3.3% CSW%, -2.8 BB%

Braxton Garrett - +3.9% CSW%, -3.1 BB%

Andre Pallante - +2.5% CSW%, -1.9 BB%

Pablo Lopez - +3.3% CSW%, -2.3 BB%

Joe Ryan - +5.5% CSW%, -1.9 BB%

Dean Kremer - +2.7% CSW%, -6.2 BB%

Ranger Suarez - +2.8% CSW%, -4.9 BB%

Aaron Ashby - +3.5% CSW%, -2.7 BB%

Kyle Wright - +2.9% CSW%, -5.3 BB%

Spenser Watkins - +2.3% CSW%, -7.3 BB%

Erasmo Ramirez - +3.8% CSW%, -2.5 BB%

Multiple Barrels

Austin Riley (ATL) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Jarred Kelenic (SEA) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Manny Machado (SD) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR

Max Muncy (LAD) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR

Oscar Gonzalez (CLE) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday

1. Manny Machado - 4.0 PA - 68.0 JA Points

2. Oscar Gonzalez - 4.0 PA - 57.0 JA Points

3. Orlando Arcia - 3.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points

4. Bryan Reynolds - 5.0 PA - 50.0 JA Points

5. Jarred Kelenic - 4.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points

6. Max Muncy - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points

7. Robinson Chirinos - 4.0 PA - 38.0 JA Points

8. Keibert Ruiz - 4.0 PA - 36.0 JA Points

9. Nick Castellanos - 4.0 PA - 35.0 JA Points

10. Brandon Drury - 4.0 PA - 34.0 JA Points

Hitter JA Scores - Season

1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 365.0 PA - 156.05 JA Points

2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 444.0 PA - 140.36 JA Points

3. Juan Soto (SD) - 437.0 PA - 129.79 JA Points

4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 461.0 PA - 115.57 JA Points

5. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 345.0 PA - 114.67 JA Points

6. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 444.0 PA - 107.57 JA Points

7. D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) - 418.0 PA - 106.12 JA Points

8. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points

9. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 421.0 PA - 102.14 JA Points

10. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 385.0 PA - 97.77 JA Points

Hardest Hit Balls

Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 113.9mph - home_run

Sean Murphy (OAK) - 111.7mph - home_run

Aristides Aquino (CIN) - 111.5mph - single

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 111.0mph - field_out

Randy Arozarena (TB) - 110.5mph - field_out

Daniel Vogelbach (NYM) - 110.3mph - foul

Manny Machado (SD) - 110.1mph - double

Anthony Santander (BAL) - 110.1mph - double

Randy Arozarena (TB) - 109.5mph - single

Eugenio Suarez (SEA) - 109.4mph - home_run

Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders

Aaron Judge - 79 PA, 44 BIP, 17 Brls, 38.6 Brl%

Austin Riley - 63 PA, 48 BIP, 16 Brls, 33.3 Brl%

Yordan Alvarez - 53 PA, 32 BIP, 10 Brls, 31.2 Brl%

Bobby Dalbec - 53 PA, 29 BIP, 7 Brls, 24.1 Brl%

Matt Chapman - 60 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%

Luke Voit - 58 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%

Ramon Laureano - 64 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%

Max Muncy - 58 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%

Paul Goldschmidt - 44 PA, 28 BIP, 6 Brls, 21.4 Brl%

Kyle Schwarber - 65 PA, 36 BIP, 7 Brls, 19.4 Brl%

Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders

Aaron Judge - 79 PA, 0.622 xwOBA

Austin Riley - 63 PA, 0.537 xwOBA

Yordan Alvarez - 53 PA, 0.487 xwOBA

D.J. LeMahieu - 81 PA, 0.444 xwOBA

Freddie Freeman - 73 PA, 0.444 xwOBA

J.T. Realmuto - 53 PA, 0.432 xwOBA

Rowdy Tellez - 58 PA, 0.423 xwOBA

Chas McCormick - 53 PA, 0.42 xwOBA

Juan Soto - 65 PA, 0.415 xwOBA

Josh Bell - 64 PA, 0.406 xwOBA

Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders

Bryson Stott - 56 PA, 97 Swings, 94.8 Cont%

Steven Kwan - 81 PA, 133 Swings, 94.7 Cont%

Mookie Betts - 82 PA, 140 Swings, 92.9 Cont%

Luis Arraez - 56 PA, 105 Swings, 92.4 Cont%

Yuli Gurriel - 62 PA, 111 Swings, 90.1 Cont%

Myles Straw - 66 PA, 98 Swings, 89.8 Cont%

Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 64 PA, 108 Swings, 89.8 Cont%

Joey Wendle - 66 PA, 118 Swings, 89.0 Cont%

Trent Grisham - 58 PA, 90 Swings, 88.9 Cont%

J.P. Crawford - 62 PA, 110 Swings, 88.2 Cont%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks

Austin Riley - 63 PA, 17.5 K%, 33.3 Brl%

Danny Jansen - 42 PA, 16.7 K%, 18.8 Brl%

J.T. Realmuto - 53 PA, 15.1 K%, 18.4 Brl%

Pete Alonso - 65 PA, 12.3 K%, 16.3 Brl%

Rowdy Tellez - 58 PA, 17.2 K%, 16.7 Brl%

Sean Murphy - 61 PA, 19.7 K%, 15.0 Brl%

Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career

Trent Grisham - +11.4% Contact%, +9.7 mph exit velo, -3.1 Chase%

Jose Abreu - +8.4% Contact%, +3.8 mph exit velo, -6.4 Chase%

Carlos Correa - +6.3% Contact%, +4.4 mph exit velo, -4.8 Chase%

Teoscar Hernandez - +8.8% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -3.2 Chase%

J.T. Realmuto - +5.4% Contact%, +5.4 mph exit velo, -11.7 Chase%

Juan Soto - +13.4% Contact%, +5.6 mph exit velo, -11.0 Chase%

Kolten Wong - +9.6% Contact%, +5.3 mph exit velo, -10.3 Chase%

Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days

Anthony Rizzo - 0.412 xwOBA, 15.4% Brl%, 81.8% Contact%, 24.0% Chase%, 11.1% K%

Sean Murphy - 0.422 xwOBA, 18.8% Brl%, 80.0% Contact%, 21.6% Chase%, 16.3% K%

Yordan Alvarez - 0.487 xwOBA, 31.2% Brl%, 81.9% Contact%, 16.9% Chase%, 22.6% K%

Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks

Franmil Reyes - 33.8% Whiff%, 79.3% Weak%, 0.933 Cold Rating

Ryan Mountcastle - 33.6% Whiff%, 75.8% Weak%, 0.907 Cold Rating

Martin Maldonado - 33.3% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.899 Cold Rating

Trey Mancini - 36.1% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.892 Cold Rating

Michael Harris II - 38.6% Whiff%, 68.2% Weak%, 0.889 Cold Rating

Nick Castellanos - 33.9% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.873 Cold Rating

Ezequiel Duran - 30.7% Whiff%, 76.5% Weak%, 0.873 Cold Rating

Jarren Duran - 30.8% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.863 Cold Rating

Jake Meyers - 33.9% Whiff%, 68.4% Weak%, 0.861 Cold Rating

Marcell Ozuna - 32.0% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.855 Cold Rating

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